20081229 PM, Bonds Oil PFF PALM ANO

DJIA 8,483.93 -31.62
NASDAQ 1,510.32 -19.92
SP500 869.42 -3.38
Indices made retracement during the day to end slightly down. Good action on lighter volume to set up higher prices in next couple weeks.
Metals up.

US bonds consolidating at high levels. All eyes on the Fed.
TBT 120.75 -.14.

Too much talk about oil going lower, so this is not a time to be short oil.
DIG 27.1 +.94. Ultra long oil. Watch list for potential buy on intraday weakness.
DXO 2.3 +.29.
USO 0.92 +1.82.
APL 5.04 -.17. Supposedly 73% dividend.

ANO .3 +.04.
GBG 1.23 +.1.

C 6.57 -.16. Tested 6.5 area last week.
BGU 33 -.21. Bought at 32 last week after C held around 6.5.

PFF 27.95 +.26. 10% dividend. Consider buy of this prefered stock tracking vehicle.
PALM 3.15 -.06. Short if it puts it's head above 5.
STAR 10.52 -.48.

20081219 PM, Small Golds CMG TCK XLF VGZ

Dow 8,579.11 -25.88
Nasdaq 1,564.32 +11.95
S&P 500 887.88 +2.60
10-Yr Bond 2.131% +.057
Quadruple witching.
Metals and oil lower.

CMG 63.76 -.32. Failing at the September high-volume gap. Looks like the uptrend is over.
DRYS 11.23 -1.05. Potential buy after a pullback.
XOM 75.02 -1.98. Is following price of crude oil down. Below 72 and this will keep falling to retrace the recent gains.
C 7.02 -.41. Going lower, so if this gets to 6 1/2 on Monday with lighter volume and looks to then go higher, then can look to buy XLF.
XLF 12.23 -.02. Closed the long options that were up about 100%.

TCK 4.70 +.22. 21% dividend. Buy.
GLD 82.63 -1.24. Looks like gold will need more time backing off before the next run up.
AEM 46.62 +2.95. Strong.
RGLD 44.79 +2.77. Strong. Put on buy watch list.
There appear to have been huge "market on close" sell orders for small gold stocks which caused them to sell off dramatically in the last minute. Was this option strike price manipulation or incompetent fund selling? Placing day buy orders far below the market could pick up this manipulation.
GBG .80 -.46.
GSS .53 -.52.
VGZ 1.00 -.35. Was long in tax-deferred account. These golds appeared to be pulling back from a quick run up, so I happened to close this long at 1.43 late in the afternoon, so luckily avoided the sell-off.

... the entire fiat money system is in crisis - perhaps a terminal one - judging from the calls for a new Bretton Woods agreement by European leaders.
As a result, the powers that be in the US appear to be prepared to do virtually anything to obscure this reality from an increasingly terrified populace ...

20081217 1555, USO FAS SSO

DOW 8,886.15 -37.99
NASDAQ 1,587.42 -2.47
SP500 910.71 -2.47

USO 34.8005 -1.6395. Sold for a loss.
FAS 26.33 +.24. Attempting to buy at 26.

SSO Closed long at 26.65 just before market close.

20081216 PM

Dow 8,924.14 +359.61 (4.20%)
Nasdaq 1,589.89 +81.55 (5.41%)
S&P 500 913.18 +44.61 (5.14%)
Gold 858 +21. Looking for another 80 higher into 940.
Fed cut interest rates to zero and said it will buy more debt. Free money!
Dollar down on Fed announcement. Week dollar is good for market indices to go up.

TLT 116.46 +2.47. Waiting for a failure to short it. Possibly could rally through the calendar year while everyone gets to a "safe" place to square out the year.

HIG 17.28 +3.31. 8% dividend. Lots of upside potential - to 25s - if the volume picks up.
MFC 17.64 +1.15. If it tests 15s on lighter volume, look to buy.
GNW 3.49 +.69. Don't chase.
XLF 12.93 +1.30.
FAS 26.09 +5.81 (28.65%). Direxion Financial Bull 3X. Looking for 30 quickly then check volume when it reaches 32. Could try to scalp this the next couple days.

L 29.12 +2.34. Going to 34 - 35.
MGM 13.48 +1.98. They sold a property yesterday at a loss. Look for three more points quickly.
CSX 33.95 +2.57. Railroad. Buy.

GNCMA 8.18 +.95.

GBN GBG 1.31 +.17. Hold this long for 2.63. Then consider selling some and keeping the remainder for long term. This has volume at highs at 3.85.
TRE 4.17 +.42. Needs volume to sustain move past 4 1/2.
VGZ 1.4599 +.0699.
DIG 31.44 +1.87.

20081212 PM

Dow 8,629.68 +64.59
Nasdaq 1,540.72 +32.84
SP500 879.73 +6.14. Was down 40 points pre-market.
Bad news had markets down and they recovered during the day.

XIDE 4.66 +.92. Possible by at 4. Targets are 6.48 then 7.53.
DRYS 9.37 +0.51. Off the bottom with lots of room above. Consider to buy.
XLF 12.13 +0.23. Quickly going to 13.82 and then can test 15.


If even part of the $50B Madoff Ponzi scheme is true, then this story is remarkable. Persistent stories about "naked shorts" in the COMEX gold futures seemed unbelievable. After all, there is regulation and oversight (apparently not for Madoff).

I am beginning to believe how COMEX gold could be manipulated by a small number of trusted, powerful, and corrupt participants. If massive naked shorting has happened, then the losses have already occurred and we must only wait for the news of the losses to be reported. Such reports would would rapidly and intensely spike the price of gold. A minute later, traders would question other commodities and significant damage to the trust and credibility of "free market" trading exchanges would occur.

20081211 1322, USO

DOW 8,727.33 -34.09
NASDAQ 1,553.71 -11.77
SP500 895.09 -4.15

Gold, silver, and oil continue to move up.

USO 39.33 +3.52. Was looking to buy oil today or tomorrow. Bought this morning.

20081201 PM, gold

Dow 8,761.42 +70.09
Nasdaq 1,565.48 +18.14
SP500 899.24 +10.57
Gold up 35 to 809. Can quickly go up another 100. Watch how it acts at 940-950.
Silver, copper, and fuel up.

WSJ story that Federal Reserve is meeting with Congress to get authority to issue their own debt (for the Fed to issue their own debt). The Fed can already issue debt in the form of Federal Reserve Notes (note = debt), and now they want to issue regular debt.
Fundamentally the dollar is in trouble and now the economic infrastruture is being threatened by the bankers. If we break the infrastructure, recovery will be more difficult.

HOTT 8.64 +.49. Volume needs to come in to sustain the price.
DIG 30.40 +2.68. Oil and gas ETF is holding up and could get to 40 or higher on a bounce. Possible buy later this week.
XLE 48.99 +2.41. Energy SPDR.

Gold miners:
AEM 36.44 +4.70.
GBN .99 +.11.
TRE 3.38 +0.31.

20081209 AM, oil CVG

Silver and gold are moderately lower. If gold will move higher this month, today it should hold the gains from yesterday. If gold gives back the gains from yesterday then it will show weakness (or lack of strength to move higher).

Within a few weeks looking for:
DOW 9500
SP500 970

Oil traded up yesterday. If it trades lower this morning, use this opportunity to buy.
DIG 27.35. Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares

CVG 6.35. 52 week range 4.02 - 17.94. Looks interesting for a longer-term buy in the telco billing area.

20081208PM, HIG BGU XLF

DOW 8,934.18 +298.76 (+3.46%)
NASDAQ 1,571.74 +62.43 (+4.14%)
SP500 909.70 +33.63 (+3.84%)
After losing 25% last week, oil was up today.
Gold and silver up.

HIG 14.86 +.27. Day range 14.67 - 18.12. Gapped up, went higher, then lower the remainder of the day. Went long Friday and sold out today for a profit on a small position.
BGU 37.10 +3.72. Closed out a small long position. Triple large cap ETF. DIREXION SHS ETF TR LARGE CAP BULL

XLF 13.67 +.86.
DRYS 7.17 +2.42. An example of being sort lower priced stocks that have already had huge losses.

Short ETFs:
EEV 61.00 -10.45. Gapped down and stayed down.
SRS 78.34 -17.58. There was a time when I thought conservative investors could hedge personal real estate losses with SRS. It is too volatile to be useful for hedging personal real estate and it simply another volatile momentum play on a sector.


In Barron's last weekend, Jonathan R. Laing writes about the housing bubble and suggests that nationalizing mortgages would allow the artifically created housing prices to be maintained. Maintaining an artificial bubble created by the Federal Reserve and Congress is not a good idea, but Jonathan R. Laing writes like a Socialist who believes government best solve every problem.

How to Solve the Foreclosure Crisis
By JONATHAN R. LAING
Listen up, Uncle Sam: Barron's plan to end the foreclosure crisis is bigger, better -- and probably cheaper -- than yours.

NOTHING IS THREATENING THE U.S. FINANCIAL MARKETS, and indeed the U.S. economy, as much at the relentless rise in home foreclosures.
...
That's why Barron's is proposing sweeping action. First and foremost, the government should make that same 4.5% mortgage rate, the lowest in decades, available to all American homeowners through refinancings. Banks and other lenders would write the loans and then sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the secondary-market giants that were nationalized in early September.
...
Meanwhile, the government must help "modify" the most troublesome group of mortgages -- the roughly $500 billion of subprime and Alt-A mortgages that are in arrears and headed toward foreclosure.
...

One Trade Each Year

The Direct Portfolio option of College Invest allows one trade per year. This is not a round-trip trade, just one side of a trade. I have been in the money market fund.
I just went in to the Stock Index Portfolio.

The next allowable trade is the next calendar year, so I expect to switch back to the money market in early 2009. After that, the next trade is targeted for late 2010!!!

20081205 PM, HIG GILD XLF

Dow 8,635.42 Up 259.18 (3.09%)
Nasdaq 1,509.31 Up 63.75 (4.41%)
SP500 876.07 Up 30.85 (3.65%)
The Yen is driving our markets.

GILD 47.39 Up 1.84. Buy for a longer term hold.
HIG 14.59 7.38 (102.36%). Massive volume. Look for 19 quickly.

20081205 1515, HIG short sqeeze

DOW 8,575.28 +199.04 (+2.38%)
NASDAQ 1,493.39 +47.83 (+3.31%)
SP500 867.90 +22.68 (+2.68%)

HIG 15.62 8.41 116.64%. Short squeeze. Look for it to keep going into the close with a gap up on Monday.

20081205 1453, XLF TLT

DOW 8,384.13 +7.89
NASDAQ 1,465.55 +19.99
SP500 849.16 +3.94

Job numbers were released and the U6 unemployment measure (those working part time who want to work full time) is 12%. This lack of full time work is an untold story in the mainstream media.

A positive close can set up a nice base for a Santa Claus rally over the next few weeks. This market is set up for a violent short squeeze.

XLF 12.25 +.38. Day range 11.56 - 12.34.
TLT 111.42 -.88. When this breaks down it will surprise many who have bought Treasury bonds thinking they are safe.

20081104 1230, XLF

DOW 8,507.26 -84.43
NASDAQ 1,478.16 -14.22
SP500 861.52 -9.22
Financials and real estate up while market meanders.

XLF 12.15 .15.
SPG 49.31 +1.82.

20081103PM

DOW 8,591.69 +172.60
NASDAQ 1,492.38 +42.58
S&P 500 870.74 +21.93
Large caps have strength while small caps aren't showing a lot of strength. Solar stocks did good today..
Many ABC ups.
When bonds crack downward, market will rocket up with money rotating out of bonds. Start scaling out of gov't bonds if you are long. (Treasury bonds - not corporate bonds.)

FSLR 133.72 +17.60.
SPWRA 34.40 +4.23. Going to make run for B at 35.2. Tomorrow consider intraday buy scalp.

URE 4.92 +0.61 (14.15%) Ultra Real Estate ProShares. 52 week range 3.07 - 43.38.
SPG 47.49 +2.82 (6.31%) Simon Property Group Inc. 52 week range 33.78 - 106.43.

XTO 35.74 +0.13. Looking for 46.
FCX 18.05 -3.77 (17.28%). 52 week low 17.01 - 127.24. Discontinued dividend. This could be a good low because it couldn't stay at the lows today.
BTU 21.98 +1.27 (6.13%). Going to 27.

AMZN Going to 48.
C 7.82 +0.60 (8.31%).

20081121 PM, CNSL DRYS VGZ

DOW 8,046.42 +494.13 (+6.54%)
NASDAQ 1,384.35 +68.23 (+5.18%)
S&P 500 800.03 +47.59 (+6.32%)

C 3.77 -.94. Day range 3.05 - 5.53.

CNSL 7.82 -.3. Day range 7.27 - 8.88.
19% dividend. Expect a bounce into and through next week. After that will depend on how the indices move.

EEV 97.5 -28.57. Day range 89.37 - 118.50.

DRYS 3.54 -.26. 52 week range 3.04 - 116.43.
The 21% dividend will be cut.

XLF 9.68 +.29.

VGZ .98 +.14.
Many miners closed strong, following the price of gold and silver.

20081112 AM, CNSL

Some of the closing prices in the previous post were apparently incorrect. CNSL appears to have closed at 8.12, so it did make it back to the 8.25. 15% dividend for a phone company!

The DOW had volume down yesterday. S&P down volume yesterday wasn't that heavy. Nasdaq had down volume.

Citigroup management is calling for short sale restrictions. Last month this didn't stop the price declines - people are selling and buyers have left the room. We don't need more market rule changes. We need more balance sheet transparency - no level 3 "assets", and no off-balance-sheet anything.

Gold is volatile and starting to shine.

Option expiry this weekend. When this passes, there could be some reduction in volatility.

Asia and Europe are trading higher.

The day after Thanksgiving has a seasonal tendency for the US markets to trade higher.

20081120PM, XLF VMW AA

Dow 7,553.56 -443.72 (5.27%)
Nasdaq 1,316.12 -70.30 (5.07%)
S&P 500 752.44 -54.14 (6.71%)

Markets sold off into the close. Oil down to $48/barrel. Bulk unleaded about to go below $1. Silver down .35 while gold up $10. Yen up, dollar up, pound down. US Treasury bonds were all bid up.

C 4.71 -1.69.
Massive volume. Saudi investor increased stake to 5%.

XLF 9.4 -1.12.

VMW 19.61 -.15.
Was positive until the last minutes of the session.

CNSL 8.12 -1.69.
Near retest of 8.25.

AA 6.85 -1.31.
Big volume.

20081120 1430, VMW ZYXI SBUX

DJIA 7,890.07 -107.21
NASDAQ 1,369.45 -16.97
SP500 788.49 -18.09

VMW 20.13 +.37.
Has been showing relative strength. Bought at 20.20 and sold Nov 22 1/2 covered calls.

ZYXI 1.89 -1.08.
Luckily had order to sell that filled on Tuesday. Though still long some shares. Apparently the company missed a SEC filing. Looking like a pump-and-dump by their management.

SBUX 7.54 -.43.
Continuing to make lows.

2008120 1130, FAS

DJIA 7,929.10 -68.18
NASDAQ 1,387.05 +0.63
SP500 795.78 -10.80

FAS 18.15 -2.82.
Trailing stock closed this long.

XJZLI 1.94 -.26. XLF call.

20081120 1049, ISIL FAS

DJIA 7,949.33 -47.95
NASDAQ 1,384.19 -2.23
SP500 797.49 -9.09

ISIL 8.82 -0.2.
Was briefly positive. Daily low 8.34.

FAS 18.22 -2.75. 3x financial long.
Bought in a tax-deferred account.

20081120 1029, EEV XLF

DJIA 7,847.30 -149.98
NASDAQ 1,364.13 -22.29
SP500 785.35 -21.23

Markets opened with gap down. This can reverse positive, so am closing some shorts. There can be violent rebounds today.

EEV 119.2 +7.97.
Closed this long position (which is a double short).

XLF 9.8 -.72.
Bought December 9 call at 1.74.

20081119 PM, DOW Close Below 8000

DOW 7,997.28 -427.47 (-5.07%)
NASDAQ 1,386.42 -96.85 (-6.53%)
S&P 500 806.58 -52.54 (-6.12%). Near 2002 low.

DOW closed below 8000. Relentless selling with some big price drops, though volume is not extreme. A day last week it looked like we could have a move up into options expiration this week, and this has not happened. More selling with a lack of buyers to support price.

Consumer price index fell a record 1% last month, in large part due to oil prices falling. Excluding food and energy the index fell .1% - first decline since 1982. This signals more Fed rate cuts, mimicking the Japanese' futile attempt to stimulate twenty years ago and their nearly zero interest rate.

Financials are in terrible shape and had volume moving down today. Yesterday Treasury Secretary Paulson said he had used some bailout funds to stabilize financials. Really?
BAC 13.06 -2.13 (14.02%).
C 6.40 -1.96 (23.44%)
MFC 16.55 -1.64 (9.02%).
52 week low. Covered short too early several days ago because it was just "hanging around".

ISIL 8.84 -.91.
Scalp short intraday.

EEV 111.23 +15.29 (15.94%).
Staying short and looking to sell around 191. Will watch how it does in 190s to 207.10 52 week high.

SBUX 7.97 -0.41.
52 week low. No real obvious support level to stop the downtrend from 40. Nearly ten years of buyers are underwater.

AA 8.16 -1.32 (13.92%).
Nearly twenty years of buyers are underwater.

SHY 84.61 +0.12. iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury Bond.
52 week high. If you must buy a stock, this short-term bond is somewhat safe until/if the dollar breaks down dramatically. Stay away from buying long-term bonds.

CNSL 9.81 Down 1.13 (10.33%).
Last month there was a tick down to 8.25. If there were real trades there, then it looks like it will retest that price.

MCHP 17.51 -1.53 (8.04%).
52 week low. (Relatively safe) short opportunity to 15, then watch if it can break lower.

GOOG 280.18 -17.24 (5.80%).
52 week low. Every buyer since 2005 is underwater. When this does bounce, it may be vicious.

SRS 225.55 +48.72 (27.55%).
All time high with average volume. Am holding on to this wild ride. Vicious retracements.

SWN 30.38 -2.07 (6.38%).
Can easily retest October low around 20. When energy bounces, this can go to 40 and more.

20081118 1208 ISIL

DOW 8,467.92 +194.34 (+2.35%)
NASDAQ 1,494.67 +12.62 (+0.85%)
S&P 500 864.69 +13.94 (+1.64%)

ISIL 9.8 -.37.
Relentless selling at 52 week low. More downside ahead?

20081114 1424 EEV

DOW 8,793.44 -41.81 (-0.47%)
NASDAQ 1,566.64 -30.06 (-1.88%)
SP500 900.23 -11.06 (-1.21%)

EEV 85.78 +10.23.
Went short from 86.9. Looking for indices to go flat/positive and then put in a tight trailing stop to cover this short intraday.

20081114 1250 EEV MFC

DOW 8,575.84 -259.41 (-2.94%)
NASDAQ 1,538.83 -57.87 (-3.62%)
SP500 880.38 -30.91 (-3.39%)

MFC 19.01 +.01.
Covered short.
EEV 86.46 +10.91.
Went short at 89.2 as intraday market index downdraft seemed to have been stopping and ready to reverse. Update @ 1302: covered at 86.9.

20081114 1022 EEV APL

DOW 8663.53 -171.72.

Nasdaq 1548.46 -48.24.

SP500 888.47 -22.82


EEV85.67 +10.12.
Covered at 82.78 this morning.

APL 10.35 -1.89.
Price action says something is wrong. 32% dividend.

20081113PM Markets Reject Lows

DOW 8,835.25 +552.59 (+6.67%). Day 7,965.42 – 8,876.59.
NASDAQ 1,596.70 +97.49 (+6.50%)
SP500 911.29 +58.99 (+6.92%)

Index multi-year lows were taken out with a big downtick of +1500 without massive volume. Markets then reversed upside with big volume.
DOW is quickly going to 9600.
Nasdaq is quickly going to 1785 and then 1893.
Commodities including copper closed strong.
Gold impressively reversed and closed higher.

Many stocks tested lows intraday and reversed higher. Those that did so without massive volume can go higher and not need to retest the lows today.

EEV 75.55 -30.64 (-28.85%).
Shorted from 102 a few days ago. Stay short for a few days, though keep a close eye on it to close the short.

TNA 42.60 +8.60 (+25.29%).
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Small Cap Bull 3x. Triple leverage and trades like a stock.

XLF 13.41 +0.91.
Can quickly go to 16 and 20.
XJZAN 1.29 +.28 (+27.72%).
XLF JAN 14 call. Buy and look to sell in next five weeks when XLF gets to 16 or then to 20.
FAS 43.33 +7.63 (+21.37%).
DIREXION SHS ETF TR FINL BULL 3X. Buy.

APL 12.24 +.53.
28% dividend. Day range 10.26 - 12.39. 52week range 11.45 - 46.97. Made 52 week low and closed higher without massive volume. Buy.
DIG 32.82 +5.90 (+21.92%).
Fundamentally oil and other commodities are going higher due to excess money creation causing inflation. This has options.
FCX 26.01 +3.72.
52 week range 21.94 - 127.24. Today range 21.50 - 26.05. Today made 52 week low and reversed higher without making massive volume. 8% dividend. Buy.
ICO 3.11 +.62 (24.90%)
Day range 2.42 - 3.11. 52 week range 2.45 - 13.9. Made 52 week low and rejected it with average volume and closed at day high.
GBN 1.02 +.02.
Gold miner that is producing. Buy.

20081015PM HOG ISRG JAVA , Lehman insurance soon due, Iceland 500K

DOW 8,577.91 -733.08 (-7.87%)
NASDAQ 1,628.33 -150.68 (-8.47%)
S&P 500 907.84 -90.17 (-9.03%)
Oil 75/barrel. Pump gas prices are dipping below $3/gallon.
Monday's record snapback rally was largely retraced today with aggressive selling into the close.
Asian markets on Thursday are selling off ~9%.

AFL 41.71 -4.36. Consider a short in the morning.
SRS (double inverse commercial real estate) has seen huge volatility, up 27% today.
HOG 24.53 -4.2. 52 week low and below Friday's range. Put a fork in this pig.
GOOG 339.17 -23.54. Anyone who bought in 2007 or 2088 has lost money. At what point will people bail?
RIMM 55.75 -4.37. Same as GOOG with underwater owners.
POT 76.85 -21.15. Heading to 50.
TOT 46.98 -6.76. French oil. Friday's low was 42.67.
PPD 32.03 -3.93. Consumers cutting back will drop this rip-off legal service. Holders from 2004 are above water.
ISRG 190.12 -34.20. Friday low was 153.30. Consider buying puts.
JAVA 4.97 -0.61. If this sees 5.5 this week, try to short.
APL 20.74 -0.92. Seemingly stable owner of pipelines that is tracking market down. Dividend now 18%. Looks to retest Friday's recent low of 15.3. Look to short in the morning.
EBAY 15.33 -2.41. Weak earnings guidance. Buyers in the past 5 years are underwater.


To Save the Banking Sector in Iceland Will Cost $500,000 Per Citizen
By Bill Bonner • October 16th, 2008

"What's the capital of Iceland?"
"Oh...about $6.50."
That's the joke that is making its way around London this morning.

Iceland has melted down. Now, the government has pledged to save the banking sector - but at a cost of nearly $500,000 per citizen! In Europe, the cost so far is estimated at about $7,000 per citizen. But experts insist that much of that money - loaned to the banks - will come back to the government.
And in America? Who knows...


Good news last week when Lehman's debt traded and cleared (below a dime on the dollar). This is good because it shows there was some value and the market can work without gov't interference and price fixing.
Bad news for those who insured the debt, as they owe the difference. This seems to be due next week. Will they be able to pay?

Big tab for Lehman swap sellers
Investors who bet Lehman Brothers wouldn’t default on its debt are, unsurprisingly, looking at a hefty bill. Sellers of credit default protection on the bankrupt New York brokerage firm will have to pay 91.38 cents on the dollar later this month to settle with the buyers of Lehman credit default swaps. The price was set in an auction Friday whose results were posted on Creditfixings.com.
...

20081012PM BUD

DOW 8,451.19 -128.00
NASDAQ 1,649.51 +4.39
S&P 500 899.22 -10.70

Starting to buy a few more miners.

BUD 58.50 -3.11. InBev is scheduled to buy BUD for $70 cash by the end of the year.

20081006 1440 AGM ZYXI

Dow 9,569.21 -756.17 (7.32%)
Nasdaq 1,782.24 -165.15 (8.48%)
SP500 1,009.07 -90.16 (8.20%)
30-yr Bond 3.9420% -0.1810
Oil below $90/barrel.
Trailing stops selling out several positions.

AGM 9.35 +1.14 (13.89%). Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. Fannie, Freddie, Farmie. Went long today.
ZYXI 5.07 -0.03. Staying long.

S&P cash gap at 960

Oct 6 - 10 look for 2000 DOW points down with lots of volatility.
Look at S&P cash gap at 960. Hmmmm.

20081001PM GE DE

DOW 10,831.07 -19.59 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ 2,069.40 -22.48 (-1.07%)
S&P 500 1,161.06 -5.30 (-0.45%)

SDS 69.77 -0.53. Closed long position intraday.
DE 46.3 -3.2. New 52 week low today. 52 week range 46.00 - 94.89. This can go a lot lower, as financing for tractors is less available. Support in the 30s?
GE 24.50 -1.
On a September 25 conference call, CFO Keith Sherin was asked if GE would need to tap any lending facilities. Keith answered, "Absolutely not." (http://www.ge.com/pdf/investors/events/09252008/ge_transcript_09252008.pdf pages 9 and 10)

GE announced today (one week later) an "investment" by Warren Buffett that is structured like a loan. GE Announces Common Stock Offering; Warren Buffett Announces Investment In GE

Why didn't the CFO know a week ago that more funding would be needed? What changed in one week?

20080929PM

DOW 10,365.45 -777.68 -6.98%
NASDAQ 1,983.73 -199.61 -9.14%
S&P 500 1,106.39 -106.59 -8.79%
CBOE Volatility VIX 46.72 +11.98
Market volume wasn't as huge as expected considering the percentage decline. There simply were no bids.
Gold and silver up.
Wall Street banker's bailout narrowly failed. A bailout will not fix the fundamental problems of unsound money, mark-to-myth accounting, and unreasonable leverage.

GMO 4.28 -.7. This was sold out late last week. It had been a long-term hold with covered calls sold. Those covered calls expired a week ago, a stop was put in place, and this non-precious metal miner was fortunately sold.
ICO 5.61 -1.06. Average volume. Coal miner. Put on buy watch list.
GNCMA 9.18 -.41. Less than average volume. Telco. Put on buy watch list.
WF 26.26 -7.54. 52 week low. China finance company. Was short until issued a "buy in" last week.
TLT 97.25 +2.75. Am long. Expect worldwide central bank rate cuts tonight.

20080925 1417

DJIA 11,057.03 231.86
NASDAQ 2,196.96 41.29
S&P 500 1,212.30 26.43

If/when bailout passes, expect some pop in financials and overall markets with weakness in precious metals.

PAAS 24.72 -.76. Selling today for 7.4% gain. Good silver miner, though stepping out to take funds out of this sector for a few days.
FIG 13.61 +.62. Up 10% since going long yesterday afternoon. Expect it to go higher short-term. Look to sell soon on upspike.
HOMB 27.88 +.4. Financial has shown relative strengthh the past few weeks. Big up volume week of Sept 15 2008.
TLT Expect we have seen an intermediate-term low IF the bailout passes. (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys declined Thursday, pushing two-year note yields up for the first time this week, on expectation that Congress will approve a financial rescue plan in some form.
Two-year note yields (UST2YR) rose 17 basis points, or 0.09%, to 2.19%.
WF 36.27 +2.58. Broker sent a "buy in" so I am forced to cover this short. Big price spread 35.63 bid 36.02 ask, so this can violently squeeze higher.

20080924PM

DOW 10,825.17 -29.00 (-0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,155.68 +2.35 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,185.87 -2.35 (-0.20%)
Low volatility day. Heated Congressional hearings about Fed/Treasury on Wall Street bailout.

ZYNX 5.48 +.08. Zynex Inc., said Wednesday it has secured a $3 million line of credit to help it finance continued growth. ... “We further believe that we are equipped for having our stock traded on the American Stock Exchange,” he said.
WF 33.69 -.89. Am short. Broker today said they will buy in the position in two days if I don't cover the short.
SPG 93.69 +.18. Day range 91.28 - 96.25 so it is volatile. Component of SRS (2x short commercial real estate). Consider short at 99.
ICO 6.98 -.22. May try to short at 8.

20080924 1351 FIG

Dow 10,903.79 +49.62 +0.46%
Nasdaq 2,177.12 +23.79 +1.10%
S&P 500 1,195.53 +7.31 +0.62%
30-yr Bond 4.3770% -0.0570
Apparently the financial no-short list is being expanded (GM, F) and will be extended.

FIG 12.34 +.19. Buying this financial that has shorts that will need to cover.
ZYXI 5.5 +.1. Building cause for a move higher, possibly when they list on AMEX.

20080922PM

DJ Industrials 11015.69 -372.75
Nasdaq 2178.98 -94.92
S&P 500 1207.09 -47.99
CBOE Volatility VIX 33.85 1.78
Oil and metals set multi-year records for one-day gains.

PAAS 25.78 -2.66. Silver miner. Supposedly well run and low cost producer. Stay long.
WF 30.92 -6.58. Stay short. Shortable Chinese financial. Retested multi-year low from last Thursday. Can quickly test low 20s.
JAVA 7.69 -1.05. Gave back gain from Friday. Near 52 week low.

DGP Can buy here for quick run to 25.

20080919 1047

DOW 11,313.29 +293.60
NASDAQ 2,251.79 +52.69
S&P 500 1,239.12 +32.61

Markets had a huge upside reversal yesterday on talk of limiting short selling. It was announced that short selling would be restricted in about 800 stocks, and today the markets are again having a huge up-day.

This type of blatant manipulation and rule-changing is destroying people's ability to trust in a fair and orderly market. People are quickly losing any idea of the markets being fair, which may lead to people simply leaving the markets. When people who rationally bet on market declines leave the markets, who will be there to take the other side of trades?

Apparently politicians and regulators believe markets (except commodities and gold/silver) should always go up, and will take what manipulative and socialist steps that are needed to ensure markets go up. The markets and underlying economic problems will still need be worked through, so this temporary reprieve may get the politicians through the upcoming elections and into 2009. Problems still need to be addressed, particularly in the overvalued housing and commercial property sectors.


The Fix Is In for Stocks
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
But underlying economic fundamentals need to be addressed in addition to the crumbling capital markets.
THE OVERHAUL IS COMPLETE, or nearly so.

In less than a fortnight, the American financial system has been all but remade top to bottom.

First, the mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were formally made charges of the federal government (in every sense of the word, to the tune of $200 billion initially.)

Then, two of the most storied names on Wall Street, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, were set to disappear -- the former into a purchaser, Bank of America (ticker: BAC), the latter in the bankruptcy court.

And American International Group (AIG) was bailed out by an $85 billion loan from the Federal Reserve, granting an insurance company a lender of last resort.

And when that failed to calm the market, imperiling the continued independence of last remaining major U.S. investment banks -- Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) --Washington on Thursday gave notice it would do whatever it took to stop the pain.
...

20080917PM

DJIA 10609.66 -449.36 -4.06
Nasdaq 2098.85 -109.05 -4.94
S&P 500 1156.39 -57.20 -4.71
Crude Oil 96.65 5.50 97.16 (last/change/settle)
Gold, Dec 870.0 89.5 850.5 (last/change/settle)

ACF 9.76 -.60. July 15 low 6.26. Financial short candidate.
CMED 32.92 -7.09. Keep wide trailing stop that will close out this short. 52 week low is 32.52. Below 29.32 and it goes to 25.
GNCMA 8.76 -1.15. Closed at low of day.
ZYXI 5.61 +.13. Stay long. Needs much more volume when testing 6.14.

20080915PM

DOW 10,917.51 -504.48 (-4.42%)
NASDAQ 2,179.91 -81.36 (-3.60%)
S&P 500 1,192.70 -59.00 (-4.71%). Closed below 1215 from July 15 with more volume. Can go a couple hundred points lower in the next couple weeks. Expect tomorrow's open with a gap down.

Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 94.52 -6.66 95.71
Gold, Dec 790.8 26.3 787.0
Credit leverage is continuing to unwind, causing everything to trade down.

AIG 4.76 -7.38. Down 60.79%. Huge insurer. If AIG goes under, everyone with AIG policies will be without insurance.
LEH .21 -94.25%. Filed bankruptcy this morning.
SDS 74.01 +6.6. Bought today.

CMG 56.11 -.59. 52 week low.
CUBA 6.00 -.40. 52 week low. 20% dividend.
FRO 45.32 -4.64. Shipper. 52 week low is 34.
JNPR 25.21 -.60. Average volume.

20080911 1129

DOW 11,191.65 -77.27
NASDAQ 2,220.17 -8.53
S&P 500 1,224.11 -7.93
Metals continue to drop.

DGP 13.99 -.59. Sold for a $2.2 per share loss. This was in a tax-deferred account with long-term positions, so the stop was wide. Clearly this was not the bottom in gold and at this rate of price destruction, $670/oz will arrive soon.
PAAS 18.85 -.77. Staying short. Silver typically has more volatility than gold with sharper pullbacks.
TRE 2.21 +.03. Suffered severe pullback the past week. 52 week 1.93 - 7.25.
ZYXI 5.2 +.2. This looks to explode when the market turns up.

20080909PM

DOW 11,231.06 -279.68
NASDAQ 2,209.81 -59.95
S&P 500 1,224.55 -43.24
People are scared and are moving to cash and deleveraging. Markets are oversold, but this time of heavy selling can keep itself going when buyers are scared to step in.

LEH 7.79 -6.36. Massive volume. No Lehman-specific news.
AIG 18.37 -4.39. Possible short.
HOMB 26.85 +.46. 52 week high. Surprising any financial is doing so well.
BLK 210.80 -12.92. Possible short. Merrill Brokers Press Pimco, BlackRock to Buy Auction-Rate Debt

TRE 2.13 -.62. Big volume at these lows.
PAAS 19.10 -1.69. Shorted today as a play on silver price decline.
X 93.69 -13.92.

20080909 1339 Commodities

DOW 11,315.90 -194.84
NASDAQ 2,222.66 -47.10
S&P 500 1,234.27 -33.52
Platinum 1233
Gold 779
Silver 11.44
Markets giving back much of yesterday's gains. Was yesterday's volume from short covering?
Commodities continue to sell off.

DUG 45.24 +4.52. Sold at end of day yesterday to remove hurricane risk. Up big today.
PAAS 19.20 -1.59. Shorted today. Silver may test 10, which will affect this miner.
MOO 41.19 -3.46. More commodity selling.

20080908PM

DOW 11,510.74 +289.78
NASDAQ 2,269.76 +13.88
S&P 500 1,267.79 +25.48
World and USA markets were up with volume.
Treasury took over Fannie and Freddie, which effectively bails out their bond holders.

DUG 40.72 (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares) Sold near end of day at 40.78. Wanted to close this exposure in case a hurricane shakes up the energy supply. DIG is the opposite.
FNM .73 -6.31.
FRE .88 -4.22.
PAAS 20.79 -1.78. 52 week low with volume. Silver miner short for a few months?
COP 74.69 -.74. Potential short term buy.
PG 72.37 +1.59. Six month high. 52 week high is 75.18.

Jim Rogers: How the Federal Reserve Will Fail and the One Sector Every Investor Should Be In
Saturday, September 6th, 2008
Keith Fitz-Gerald

VANCOUVER, B.C. - The U.S. financial crisis has cut so deep - and the government has taken on so much debt in misguided attempts to bail out such companies as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - that even larger financial shocks are still to come, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.

...
In 1918, the U.K. was the richest, most powerful country in the world. It had just won the First World War, et cetera. By 1939, it had exchange controls and this is in just one generation. And strict exchange controls. They in fact made it an act of treason for people to use anything except the pound sterling in settling debts.

(Q): Treason? Wow, I didn’t know that.

Rogers: Yes…an act of treason. It used to be that people could use anything they wanted as money. Gold or other metals. Banks would issue their own currencies. Anything. You could even use other people’s currencies.

Things were so bad in the U.K. in the 1930s they made it an act of treason to use anything except sterling and then by ‘39 they had full-exchange controls. And then, of course, they had the war and that disaster. It was a disaster before the war. The war just exacerbated the problems. And by the mid-70s, the U.K. was bankrupt. They could not sell long-term government bonds. Remember, this is a country that two generations or three generations before had been the richest most powerful country in the world.
...

20080905PM

Dow 11,220.96 +32.73 +0.29%
Nasdaq 2,255.88 -3.16 -0.14%
S&P 500 1,242.31 +5.48 +0.44%
30-yr Bond 4.2760% -0.0050
Yesterday was a big down day. Today closed nearly flat. Woudl be looking for a bounce early next week ... though the mortgage bailout is a huge unknown.


Government may soon back troubled mortgage giants
Friday September 5, 11:12 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Government may soon take over troubled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government is expected to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as soon as this weekend in a monumental move designed to protect the mortgage market from the failure of the two companies, which together hold or guarantee half of the nation's mortgage debt, a person briefed on the matter said Friday night. ...

Jim Rogers Fires Up CNBC

Jim Roger's smacks down interviewer's suggestion of Keynesian "solution" to bailout investment banks.



Jim Rogers says ECB countries should cut taxes and Europeans should have more babies.

20080822PM

DOW 11,621.71 +191.50
NASDAQ 2,414.25 +33.87
S&P 500 1,291.57 +13.85
Markets up on light volume.

DGP 17.48 -.67. Monday had sold the gold short and went long DGP (double long ETF).
ZYXI 4.8 -.05. Bought this earlier in the week. Low priced, like a call. Had good earnings and looking to move from bulletin board to AMEX, which may move the price up if it happens.
FNM 5 +.15.

FNM FRE: Which Is Weakest?

If you must short one of these, which would be the better short?

FNM 7.91
FRE 5.85



The Endgame Nears For Fannie and Freddie

By Barrons
Last update: 7:08 a.m. EDT Aug. 16, 2008
IT MAY BE CURTAINS SOON FOR THE MANAGEMENTS and shareholders of beleaguered housing giants (FNM:
Fannie Mae Last: 7.91-0.32-3.89% 4:02pm 08/15/2008 FNM 7.91, -0.32, -3.9%) and (FRE: Freddie Mac Last: 5.85-0.09-1.52% 4:05pm 08/15/2008 FRE 5.85, -0.09, -1.5%). It is growing increasingly likely that the Treasury will recapitalize Fannie and Freddie in the months ahead on the taxpayer's dime, availing itself of powers granted it under the new housing bill signed into law last month. Such a move almost certainly would wipe out existing holders of the agencies' common stock, with preferred shareholders and even holders of the two entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt also suffering losses.
...

Grain Elevator Operator

Interesting article describing "basis" and how it is used by grain elevator operators.

THE LAST CONTANGO IN WASHINGTON
by Antal E. Fekete,
Professor Emeritus, Memorial University of Newfoundland
June 4, 2006

One paragraph:

Rationing warehouse space

Moreover, the basis also helps the grain elevator operator to decide what type of cash grain to buy and store. Other things being the same he will buy the grain with the higher basis, and sell the one with the lower. In this way he can maximize his profit derived from the shrinking basis. If the basis is higher for wheat than for corn, then he will keep buying cash wheat in preference to corn until the basis for corn catches up. Or, suppose, the news is that corn blight has hit the growing regions. The astute grain elevator operator will respond by accelerating his sales of cash wheat, in order to make room for more corn in his elevators.

The best way to think about the business of the grain elevator operator is to assume that he is marketing warehousing services, including the rationing of warehouse space between competing uses. His guiding star is the basis. High and rising basis tells him for which purposes the demand for scarce public warehouse capacity is the most urgent. Low and falling basis tells him for which purposes the demand is slack, as people prefer non-public solutions for their storage problem, e.g., by keeping supplies closer to home, as often happens in troubled times. Including digging holes in one’s own backyard.

The idiosyncrasies of the basis with regard to monetary commodities, since they can be buried in holes, are quite different from those with regard to non-monetary commodities, which cannot. This will be the subject of the last of this 3-part series on the basis.

20080808 1522

Indexes up 2+%.
Gold 856.

DXD 59.53 -2.89. Short.
GDI 45.92 +.07. Covered.
DZZ 31.19. Staying long this gold short.

20080728 GM

DJIA 11,190.51 -180.18
NASDAQ 2,280.42 -30.11
S&P 500 1,243.76 -14.00

GM 11.21 -.69. Long was stopped out earlier this morning. May get back to 9s.

20080725 1526 SBUX GDI

DOW 11,345.37 -3.91
NASDAQ 2,307.13 +27.02
SP500 1,255.12 +2.58

GDI 44.44 -1.46. Shorted here, looking for another big down day.
SBUX 14.39 -.15. Light volume, so covered the short.

20080724PM

DJIA 11,349.28 -283.10
NASDAQ 2,280.11 -45.77
S&P 500 1,252.54 -29.65
EuroUSD 1.57 +0.0026
Oil 125.49
Gold 927.00 +4.70

GM 13 -1.62. Sold half of the long position after the open at 14.3.
SBUX 14.54 -.88. 52 week low 13.33. Staying short.
SKF 130.7 +13.81. Keeping the longer-term hold, likely through this year.

CKH 82.09 -1.27.
UAUA 7.45 -1.9. Had a great rally earlier this week on drop in fuel prices and dramatic drop in credit card hold-back.

20080701 1435 GM

GM Bought at 12.4. Serious short squeeze in progress.

20080701 1418 CMED

DJIA 11,315.17 -34.84
NASDAQ 2,289.26 -3.72
S&P 500 1,276.64 -3.36

Intraday index reversal.

CMED 45.71 -3.69. Trailing stop covered. Went long. This can run fast ... either way.

20080701 1236 CMED SKF TRE

DJIA 11,210.95 -139.06
NASDAQ 2,262.24 -30.74
S&P 500 1,263.93 -16.07

Gold up, silver up.

CMED 44.8 -4.6. Got short intraday.
SKF 163.28 +6.65. Up over $30 in the last week.
TRE 5 +.27.

20080626PM

DOW 11,453.42 -358.41
NASDAQ 2,321.37 -79.89
S&P 500 1,283.15 -38.82

Oil new intraday high at 140.
Gold up 32.

Markets closed at/near low of day, though volume was not heavy. Price destruction without volume.

Press/TV seem panicked, so the "talking head indicator" appears to be calling a trade-able low. Right here, right now.
Mid-term there is more downside, particularly for techs that don't have earning power and financials.

GSS 3.45 +.3.
TRE 4.65 +.07. Look to buy.

C 17.67 -1.18 on huge volume. A short near 20 would be nice!
GM 11.43 -1.38. Big volume. Three decade low.
SRS 102.73 +6.45. Big volume. 52 week range 78.95 - 151.99.

20080624PM

DOW 11,807.43 -34.93
NASDAQ 2,368.28 -17.46
S&P 500 1,314.29 -3.71

Rolling out of commodities with some strength in financials.

BBW 7.68 -.04. Intraday new 52 week low. Light volume. Rejected low.
GNCMA 7.48 -.32.
JAVA 11.6 +.46.
MOS 142.98 -7.68. Average volume.
STT 67.88 +1.35. Rejected low. Volume light.
UWM 49.69 -1.51.
XLF 21.73 +.25. Big volume, 2X average.

20080623PM

DOW 11,842.36 -0.33
NASDAQ 2,385.74 -20.35
S&P 500 1,318.00 +0.07

Gold down 18. Rumored forced hedge fund selling.

Sold the short index positions.
Went long an index.

Barron's cover story inferred that oil is peaking. The article, in my mind, glossed over why oil won't significantly retract - the weak US dollar.

Some highlights in Barron's over the weekend:
USG 31.22 -1.42.
PIR 4 -.8.

20080617PM

DOW 12,160.30 -108.78
NASDAQ 2,457.73 -17.05
S&P 500 1,350.93 -9.21

Possible shorts:
SLAB 34.18 -.30
CIEN 26.11 -1.21
CME 441.82 -22.41
SOHU 81.46 -1.02

20080612PM JAVA YHOO BAC

DOW 12,141.58 +57.81
NASDAQ 2,404.35 +10.34
S&P 500 1,339.87 +4.38

QID 41.32 -.04.
STV 14.64 -.33.
TWM 72.87 -.54.

JAVA 11.42 -.24. Intraday 52 week low.
YHOO 23.52 -2.63. Huge volume. 52 week range 18.58 - 34.08

BAC 28.83 52 week Range 28.83 - 52.96.
B of A is DOA Until Further Notice
...

What makes tech:stocker examine Bank of America today is the series of recent questionable acquisitions that leave us wondering why more analysts are not pummeling this stock?

Simply put, buying US Trust from Charles Schwab was not a smart move. While US Trust delighted Chuck and his shareholders by consistently returning a meager profit, the amount of management resources needed to guide the financial dinosaurs at US Trust was staggering. To put this in laymen's terms, it was like trying care for a 97-year-old grandfather who refuses to be placed in a nursing home.

On the heels of this announcement Bank of America announced they were buying Countrywide Financial. While many companies in financial services industry were desperately trying to rid their books of subprime mortgages, Bank of America decides to pay $4b in stock to increase their exposure to them. ...

20080611PM

DOW 12,083.77 -205.99
NASDAQ 2,394.01 -54.93
S&P 500 1,335.49 -22.95

GBN 3.31 -.12.
QID 41.36 +1.81.

AGP 23.36 -3.82. Big volume. 52 week low intraday. Looking for 20. "health insurer pulled its 2008 guidance"
CPS 48.76 +.05. Has been rising on light volume. There was heavy volume at March lows.
XLF 22.41 -.67.

20080610PM

DJIA 12,289.76 9.44
NASDAQ 2,448.94 -10.52
S&P 500 1,358.44 -3.32
Gold sold off today.

Away from trading for a couple weeks, and stopped out of many positions. As usual, should have closed the positions before leaving.

GBN 3.43 +.03. Buy order filled last week. They are pulling gold from a new mine.
QID 39.55 +.49. Went long today.

AEM 65.51 -5.24 on good volume. Going lower.
AMR 6.73 -.12. Looks to be in bad shape.
XLF 23.08 +.07. 52 week range 22.29 - 37.72. Is setting up a short opportunity.

20080519PM

DOW 13,028.16 +41.36
NASDAQ 2,516.09 -12.76
SP500 1,426.63 +1.28

SYNM 2.45 +.58. Heavy volume. Going for 3.
SRS 80.45 -.12. Sold this long, then shorted it.

2080516PM Casinos, "Monster"

DJIA 12,986.80 -5.86
NASDAQ 2,528.85 -4.88
S&P 500 1,425.35 +1.78
Metals up.

DGP 21.78 +1.05. Sold at 21.61.
GBN 3.46 +.08.
HMY 12.55 +.07.

Consider to short:
ASTI 14.72 -1.17. New share issue at 14.
CNSL 13.73 -.21. Keeps sinking. Light turnover, huge dividend.
Casino revenues are down:
ASCA 18.14 -.4.
ISLE 6.94 -.03.
PNK 15.-5 -.87.


Köhler calls financial markets a 'monster'
Published: 14 May 08 10:11 CET

German President Horst Köhler has attacked banks for allowing global financial markets to become a "monster" that nearly caused a "collapse" as a result of the US subprime crisis.

"It must by now have become clear to every responsible thinking person in the (banking) industry that the international financial markets have become a monster that has to be put back in its place," Köhler told weekly magazine Stern in an interview to be published on Thursday.

He said highly complex financial instruments and the ability to make massive leveraged investments with minimal capital were the primary causes behind the markets monster.

"We came close to a collapse of world financial markets," Köhler, the former head of the International Monetary Fund, said.

...

2080513 1116 DGP XRM

DJIA 12,805.64 -70.67
NASDAQ 2,475.42 -13.06
S&P 500 1,398.93 -4.65

DGP 20.13 -.64. Covered at 20.04.
XRM 4.5 +.4. Sold here.

20080509 1010 DGP

DGP 20.5 -.4.
Shorted gold buy going short the DLP (2X long) at 20.53.

20080509 0953 XRM

XRM Sold the tiny long position for small profit.

20080509 1330 UPDATE:
Left $1 ~33% on the table...
Bought 1000 @ 4.21. Will be wild if this goes to 5 and can short it.
It has options, and selling this month's puts at 5 looks tempting with premium exploding.

Risk management says I shouldn't be in this as I missed most of the (parabolic?) move. Ego says otherwise, so kept position size small.

20080509 0947

DJIA 12,768.02 -98.76
NASDAQ 2,436.71 -14.52
S&P 500 1,387.71 -9.97

SYNM 1.69 -.03. Buying morehere.
XRM 2.97 -.01.

20080508PM

DJIA 12,866.78 +52.43
NASDAQ 2,451.23 +12.75
S&P 500 1,397.68 +5.11
Oil 124.5 intraday high.

ANO 3.13 +.02. Have the physical certificates for this long term hold.
FEED 19.07 -.28.
GMO 8.4 +.35. Walked higher all day, then squeezed up at the close. Volume was average.
MELI 55 -1.05.
SRS 86.2 +.21.
VGZ 3.67 +.24.
SYNM 1.73 +.33. Wanted to see higher volume, so get ready to sell this.
XRM 2.98 +.55. Had earnings. 52 week range 0.91 - 9.16. Bought a very small position at 2.95 late in the day, as the whole order didn't fill at that price. Looking to sell in the morning on continuation up. March 18 big down day from 4.34.

DBE 47.39 +.5. PowerShares DB Energy Fund. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most heavily traded energy commodities in the world Tempting to short this, but it closed at 52 week high. It has options.
EWY 58.7 -.08. Korea ETF.
GLD 87.24 +1.42. Consider selling gold in the morning, by going short DGP (gold 2X long). Gold often has big moves on Fridays.
DGP 20.93 +.7.
RSOL 8.8 -1.2. IPO'd at 10 today.
UNG 54.09 -.16. United States Natural Gas Fund LP. Nearly a short.
XLF 25.99 -.44. Financials look to continue going down due to AIG news.

20080505PM

DJIA 12,969.54 -88.66
NASDAQ 2,464.12 -12.87
S&P 500 1,407.49 -6.41
Index volume light.
Metals up.
Oil 120. All time high.

FEED 20.94 +1.94. All time high.
MELI 56 +6.01.
OTEX 37.49 -.36.
SYNM 1.36 +.12. Bought today. December 2006 2.75 looks to be retested, then watch how it does there.
TRE 5.05 -.08.

AVR 5.01 -.42. Gave back some gains from Friday's earnings.
CNSL 14.17 -.54. 52 week low is 13.6.
JST 41.04 +2.12. All time high. China company.
XOM 89.51 -.1. Divergence from oil. Surprising it was down slightly, with oil at all time highs.
YHOO 24.37 -4.3. Microsoft walked away from buying Yahoo. Gap open to 19.35 from January 31.

20080505 1537 OTEX FEED

DJIA 12,960.91 -97.29
NASDAQ 2,461.82 -15.16
S&P 500 1,407.00 -6.90

OTEX 37.6 -.25. Sold here for small intraday gain. Volume is light.
FEED 20.8 +1.8. 52 week high, all time high. Great volume. Stay long.

20080505 1437 FEED

DJIA 12,960.82 -97.38
NASDAQ 2,462.45 -14.54
S&P 500 1,406.23 -7.67

FEED 19.45 +.45. Bought as it is running up to test day high at 19.49. Shorts are still getting squeezed.
MELI 55.88 +5.89. After weeks of marking time, moving up strongly. Will consider sell around 60.
OTEX 37.49 -.36.
TRE 5.06 -.07. All of the short is covered.

20080505 1133

DJIA 12,975.64 -82.56
NASDAQ 2,468.12 -8.87
S&P 500 1,408.21 -5.69

TRE 5.1 -.03. Closed some of this short position at 5.05.
OTEX 37.44 -.41. Bought at 37.45 for short term trade.

20080503PM

Dow 13,058.20 +48.20
Nasdaq 2,476.99 -3.72
S&P 500 1,413.90 +4.56

FEED 19 +3.34. Stopped out of the short. Shows the necessity of a trailing stop, and shows how the shorts are nervous and continue to get squeezed.
AVR 5.43 +1.13. Big volume on good earnings. Produces commodities and processes ethanol. Going for high volume day in February, to 6.5.

20080430PM

DJIA 12,820.13 -11.81
NASDAQ 2,412.80 -13.30
S&P 500 1,385.59 -5.35
Fed reduced interest rate during market hours today.

FEED 16.68 -.34.
OTEX 37.22 +3.24.
PDS 25.06 +.14.
TRE 5.11 +.19.

EWZ 90.32 +6.39. Brazil up on news. Potential short.

20080430 1426, After Fed Announcement

DJIA 12,967.91 135.97
NASDAQ 2,438.51 12.41
S&P 500 1,398.24 7.30

Market indices selling down after announcement from Fed. I didn't check the announcement words, I just watched the action and then shorted FEED.

FEED 16.55 -.46. Shorted intraday after Fed announcement. Selling off quickly. Looking to fill gap down to 15.75 quickly. October 11, 2007 high was 16.36.

20080429PM

Dow 12,831.94 -39.81
Nasdaq 2,426.10 +1.70
S&P 500 1,390.94 -5.43

ICXT 6.02 +.27. Potential short. Thinly traded.

Commodity related stocks sell off, some significantly.
FEED 17.01 -1.95.
ICO 7.99 -.15.
MOO 58.42 -3.13.
PDS 24.92 -.57.
POT 181.49 -12.01.
RIG 146.98 -5.24.
TRE 4.92 -.18.

20080424PM

DJIA 12848.95 85.73
S&P 500 1388.82 8.89
Nasdaq 2428.92 23.71
Hong Kong 25628.18 -52.60

ICO 8.26 +.06. Day range 6.95 - 8.40. Impressive rally from the morning lows after earnings last night. Covered short at small profit.
TRE 5.31 -.23. Metals were down. Shorted during day. 52 week low is 4.5.

20080423PM

DJIA 12,763.22 42.99
NASDAQ 2,405.21 28.27
S&P 500 1,379.93 3.99

ICO 8.2 -.73. Shorted near the close, to hold through earnings. Reported a wider quarterly loss ... shares fell 7 percent to $7.65 in extended trade.

AEM 64.15 -4.38. Going lower.
FIX 13.23 -.17. Light volume. May want to pull back - a dollar or two.
MELI 51.4 +.8. Light volume. Testing top of gap.
SBUX 17.85 +.15. Consolidating since mid-January. Earnings released after hours. Going lower.
RJET 17.45 -.51. Huge volume. Day range 11.23 - 18.16. Frontier Air, in bankruptcy, cancelled contract with RJET.
SYNM 1.05 +.17. Has upside potential.
VMW 60.84 +2.82. Big volume. Day range 60.55 - 64.88. Open 64.63. In gap, closed near low of day.

China volatility:
CHL 89.31 +4.73.
FXI 157.61 +8.91. Articles the past few days about China equities off 1/2 this year.

20080422PM, Inflation Planning

DJIA 12720.23 -104.79 -0.82
S&P 500 1375.94 -12.23 -0.89
Nasdaq 2376.94 -31.10 -1.31

ICO 8.93 +.46. Big volume. 52 week high shortly after open, then lower. Intraday short closed for small gain.
BAC 37 -.61.
GMO 9.05 -.47.
PDS 26.6 -.55. Closed below previous day close. Can quickly retest 24.
GW 7.03 -.2. On volume.
VMW 58.02 +1.95. Earnings after market closed, and up big. Consider short at 72.

Commentary on planning for inflation this year:

ARE YOU KIDDING US JOHN?
Posted On: Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Author: Monty Guild & Tony Danaher


Hello and warm wishes to you this April21, 2008.


ARE YOU KIDDING US JOHN?

In the three way battle for worst economic policies, Obama has a narrow lead but both Clinton and McCain are close behind.

In our opinion, there is a simple and accurate one word description of John McCain’s proposed economic policies…terrible. Is he really a Republican? I doubt it after seeing his proposals.

One thing is sure, if any of the three were to implement the economic policies that they have so far proposed, inflation would take off like a rocket in the U.S. I know it is early, and they all are pandering to the mass of uninformed and economically strapped voters. I also know that their wild ideas will probably not be implemented in full, but come on folks…your economic ideas are inflationary, with a capital “I”.


THERE IS A BIG TREND WHICH WE SHOULD ALL BE AWARE OF…AND INVESTMENTS SHOULD BE POSITIONED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE.

THAT TREND IS…

INFLATION IS HIGH AND RISING IN EVERY GEOGRAPHIC REGION OF THE GLOBE

We research about 20 countries carefully. We research about 30 industries and about 400 companies worldwide.

We have been talking about the coming inflation for two years now. Individual countries started to notice it about eighteen months ago, and a few months ago inflation finally came to the public’s notice on a worldwide scale. However, the seeds of the current price increases were sown at least two or three years ago. What is more important is that the growing season for prices is nowhere near complete.

A few salient points for those who want to protect themselves from the current and oncoming inflation.

1. Inflation takes a long time to incubate. Its soil is the fertile ground of irresponsible monetary policies that take the form of governmental money creation.

2. Countries then institute price controls and government imposed export curbs.

3. Shortages develop in world markets for commodities.

4. Inflationary psychology lags inflation by a long time, but once inflationary psychology begins to grip the populace there is a scramble to acquire and hoard goods instead of money, bonds or bank accounts.

5. Citizens of inflation ridden-countries wish to hold something other than cash, bonds, bank accounts and income producing stocks. The psychology begins to be, “Every day that I hold cash it is losing value to the inflation rate.” So countries and investors take the following actions: People buy stocks, hoard food, gold, oil, commodities and other resources and in normal times. If credit is available, they hoard real estate. Currently, real estate can be hoarded in the developing world but in the developed world there is a credit liquidation going on due to an increasing illiquidity in the credit markets…simply put, real estate cannot be easily financed so hoarders go to other assets.

6. Countries begin to raise taxes on extractive industries or even force them to sell their companies to the government at low prices. Then the government operates them inefficiently with political goals in mind. A politically operated company is usually grossly inefficient, production falls and prices rise even faster.

7. Investors begin to call their money managers, stock brokers [financial consultants] mutual funds managers and ask “how can I stay ahead of inflation?”

8. Before this stage hits (it is about 6 months away in our view), you are wise to be invested in the industries and companies which benefit from inflation.


WHO BENEFITS FROM INFLATION? ENERGY, GOLD, FOOD, BASE METALS AND THE FAST GROWING COUNTRIES, SUCH AS CHINA ALL BENEFIT.

LET US TAKE THESE AREAS ONE A TIME AND BRIEFLY DISCUSS OUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR EACH

ENERGY

In the past six years (having owned a lot of energy investments while oil has gone from $30 to $116 per barrel) we have invested in several sectors. Currently, we are focusing on those companies which find energy or provide services in finding energy in harsh environments, in unpopular countries, and in offshore deep water environments where most all of the big new discoveries are taking place. We focus on the foreign and harsh environment companies because of the expertise that they possess, in the form of country contacts, and/or technical expertise that will be very valuable in finding energy located off the beaten path. The reason for this is that the energy investments on the beaten path are more highly priced. In our opinion, bigger profits can be found off the beaten path.


GOLD AND SILVER

For the past six years we have focused on precious metals of the following type. When owning mining companies, we favor companies with a royalty model or with a model that uses equity financing and no debt with derivatives attached. Companies who do not sell forward future production as collateral to pay off their loans, and whose growth model does not use derivatives (selling forward future production to get the mine started) are preferred. Such companies are few.

For those who do not want to own stocks, buy precious metals ETF’s assuming they are solidly and fairly constructed.


FOOD

Food prices have only been rising for a couple of years, and for that long we have been focusing on it. Food prices will rise much more because politicians are starting to manipulate food prices for their political gain. They are installing price controls, export controls, tariffs and other artificial boundaries which have always led to long-term inefficiencies and problems. These actions tend to cause long-term price increases as they spread incoherence in the farming, distribution and consumption process.

Investing in food is easier now due to the proliferation of ETF’s, especially grains. Many ETF’s exist to buy grains in several countries. Meats are harder to buy because meat producers consume a lot of grain and grains will rise a lot more in price longer term. In addition to grain ETF’s we like to buy fertilizers. We have analysts focused purely on fertilizers, which has been a very successful investment area for us.


BASE METALS

Base metals are in huge demand to build the infrastructure of China and other fast growing countries like Russia. The world’s biggest sellers of base metals are Brazil, Canada, Russia, Australia, U.S., and Africa. To a lesser degree other Latin American and Asian countries also sell base metals.


FAST GROWING COUNTRIES

Most economists agree that it looks like the growing countries, especially China, India and Brazil have decoupled from the U.S. and Europe. They are growing, and growing fast. While Brazil is still growing much slower than the other two, its income distribution plan has worked only because the commodities that it sells are rising rapidly in price. Brazil and India must develop more manufacturing and services to supplement farming and commodity sales.

China is a phenomenon, and thus far a very successful one. China is a commodities importer. China has a much more developed manufacturing sector, and now its growing consumer sector is developing.

Even though there were huge snow storms in the first calendar quarter throughout southern China, the GDP growth was stunningly good. The government is trying to slow inflation and is raising interest rates. Thus far, there has been little effect on Chinese economic growth.

To us, Brazil and India are OK if you focus on special companies, but both markets are more vulnerable than China. China’s stock market has fallen 50% from the highs while corporate profits grew about 25% in the last year. In our opinion, some Chinese stocks are getting quite cheap and amount to a good long term play.


GIVING THANKS

Thanks to the many important members of our network who do not work at Guild Investment Management Inc. They are our friends and contacts who provide us irreplaceable information about their area of expertise, be it company, industry or country information. Thanks to these key contacts for all of your wisdom: By Cartmell, Jeff Cohen, Tom DeHudy, Steve Emerson, Earl Gould, Larry Jeddeloh, Lars Lindgren, Gary Mintz, Dan Norcini, Barry Sahgal, Ron Silverton and of course Jim Sinclair.


AND FURTHER THANKS TO ALL OF YOU…OUR READERS.

20080422AM ICO

ICO 8.82 +.36. Shorted at 9.05. Earnings on 24th.

20080421PM

DJIA 12,825.02 -24.34
NASDAQ 2,408.04 5.07
S&P 500 1,388.16 -2.17
10yr Note 98.219 -0.0312
FTSE 100 6,053.00 -3.50
Nikkei 225 13,696.55 220.10
Hang Seng 24,721.67 523.89
Oil 116.63 0.47
Gold 917.60 2.40

Reports of limited grain shortages at retail stores on USA coasts.

ABX 43.14 -.62. Sell to high 30s.
ANO 3.88 -.05. Light volume. Long term hold.
AUY 14.1 -.39. Potential short.
GMO 9.52 -.34. Light volume. Hold.
NEM 45.08 -1.19. Potential short.

ICO 8.48 +.74. 52 week high with volume.
PDS 27.13 +.68. Hanging near 52 week high.

AGM 33.1 -.33. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp.
BAC 37.61 -.95. Bad earnings report. Light-ish volume - surprising with bad earnings released. Didn't sell down hard, so maybe this is setting for a short squeeze.
DBA 37.4 -1.6. Sell.
MELI 51.84 +1.59.
MF 12.88 -1.54. Couple days of big percentage moves.
PCH 44.6 -.54. May split off a unit. Look to buy near 40.


M3 money supply:
http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6090_MoneySupply2.pdf

20080410PM

DJIA 12,581.98 54.72
NASDAQ 2,351.70 29.58
S&P 500 1,360.55 6.06
10yr Note 99.656 -0.4688
FTSE 100 5,965.10 -18.80
Nikkei 225 13,061.77 -50.12
Hang Seng 24,187.10 202.53
Oil 109.57 -0.62
Gold 931.80 -5.70

PDS 24.01 +.22. Day range 23.56 - 24.50. Sold this long yesterday.
AMR 9.87 +.7. Cutting several hundred flights per day for safety checks.
COF 49.62 -1.01.
TSCO 37.66 +.92.
WM 11.42 -.03.

20080409PM

DJIA 12,527.26 -49.18 0.39%
NASDAQ 2,322.12 -26.64 1.13%
S&P 500 1,354.49 -11.05 0.81%
10yr Note 100.125 0.6562 0.66%
FTSE 1005,983.90 -6.30 0.11%
Nikkei 22513,111.89 -138.54 1.05%
Hang Seng 23,984.57 -327.12 1.35%
Oil 110.19 2.33 2.16%
Gold 937.50 19.50 2.12%

PDS 23.79 -.31. Trailing stop sold out this long position.
FRNT 1.79 -.18. Consider a bear option spread.
RVBD 12.49 -.29. Also consider this for a bear option spread.
TXCO 13.67 -.23. Consider a short here.
WM 11.45 -.36. Consider a bear option spread, or a short.
TSCO 36.74 -1.47. Potential short.
COF 50.63 -2.88. Like peers, looks to go down. Short and look for 40.

20080408 PM, IPI

DJIA 12,576.44 -35.99
NASDAQ 2,348.76 -16.07
S&P 500 1,365.54 -7.00
Light volume all around. Earnings.
IMF plans to sell ~$6B of gold.

CTXS 33.14 +2.3. Takeover talk.
WM 11.81 -1.34. Monster volume. Diluted shareholders with contract to dilute in future at 8-something. Why is this still at 11?
TGB 5.5 -.14. Looks to retest 5.
PDS 24.1 +.06. Light volume.

Intrepid Potash Inc. told regulators Monday that it expects to fetch between $24 and $26 per share in a planned 24-million-share initial public offering.

Denver-based Intrepid Potash, which produces potash and langbeinite, is a unit of Intrepid Mining LLC.
...
Intrepid Potash has applied to list its common stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "IPI."

20080404 1300

DJIA 12,673.33 +47.30
NASDAQ 2,386.11 +22.81
S&P 500 1,378.78 +9.47

PDS 23.91 +.98. Trailing stop is in.
ORCL 20.37 -.31. Consider possible short near 21.


Good simple explanation about the current credit/derivative problems. Audio by NPR.
Our Confusing Economy, Explained
Listen Now [39 min 8 sec]

Fresh Air from WHYY, April 3, 2008 · Perplexed by the U.S. economy? You're not alone. Law professor Michael Greenberger joins Fresh Air to explain the sub-prime mortgage crisis, credit defaults, the shaky future of other types of loans and what we can expect from the U.S. financial markets.

Greenberger is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Law and the director of the University's Center for Health and Homeland Security.

20080403 PM

The VACATION TIME was great.
Many positions taken out by trailing stops. Had tried to use wide stops, which resulted in selling out at low prices. Next time taking time off, either keep the stops tight or preferably just close the positions.

ANO
PDS 22.93 +.11 on very light volume. Sell here.
VGZ

DUG 36.06 -.14. Ultrashort Oil & Gas Consider buying here.
FXP 77.42 -7.17 UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Proshare

Short candidates:
AUY 14.38 -.19.
LOW 24.32 -.26.
PCU
XLB 42.49 +.76. Materials Select Sector. Short here, looking for 40.

Long candidates to start watching:
GM 21.59 +.62. 5% dividend. Look to buy around 20.
PHO 20.21 +.07. PowerShares Water Resource

20080227 PM

DJIA 12,694.28 9.36
NASDAQ 2,353.78 8.80
S&P 500 1,380.02 -1.27

ANO 4.3 +.3. Opening gap up and held the price.
GMO 11.18 -.67. Day range. Approached 12 and gave it up.
SIGM 32.46 +1.85.
SKF 104.92 -1.28. Looking for 98 soon.
SLV 191.33 +5.33.

20080227 1321

DJIA 12,732.06 47.14
NASDAQ 2,359.08 14.10
S&P 500 1,385.78 4.49

Silver SLV 190.9 +4.9.

ANO 4.39 +.39. Good volume with big price spread. Need a big volume surge for the weekly charts.
PDS 22.71 -.01. Re-evaluate this long at 25.
SIGM 32.41 +1.8.
SKF 103.71 -2.49.

20080225 PM

DJIA 12,570.22 189.20 Will go another couple hundred points higher, then review.
NASDAQ 2,327.48 24.13
S&P 500 1,371.80 18.69

Indices going higher. Expect volatility.

Gold 942 -6. Expect 1000 within a few months.

COIN 13 +1.36. Needs more volume to get through 13.55.
GRO 8.28 +.7.

ANO 3.99 +.19.
CHT 24.5 +1.53. 4.4% dividend. Gapped up and made 52 week high intraday. Taiwan play Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. is a telecommunications service provider in Taiwan.
GLD 92.74 -.65.
MC 21.43 +.72. Can test 25 from May 2006.
PDS 22.29 +1.08. Good volume. Closed near high of day. Expect it to spend time around 25 to build cause. Stay long.
PMC 15 +.22. Has built cause to go up.
SIGM 34.17 -.81. MQNDG APR 19 CALL $35.000 closed at $3.90.
SKF 106.98 -1.92. Day range 105.87 - 113.19. Stay long.
TMA 11.25 +.45. 8.9% dividend. Thornburg Mortgage Inc.
WM 17.07 +.17. Rejected lower price today. Can buy here.

20080225 AM, SIGM

DJIA 12,485.30 +104.28
NASDAQ 2,318.87 +15.52
S&P 500 1,362.15 +9.04

SIGM 33.84 -1.14. Took a big hit last Friday, which triggered my alert at 35. This morning went long with April 35 calls. Company press release today explaining insider stock option sales.

20080222 PM, CAU AIRM RCII

DJIA 12,381.02 96.72
NASDAQ 2,303.35 3.57
S&P 500 1,353.11 10.58

Big reversal in last hour for positive close. Good action for upside, as the weak hands sold this week an particularly today.
Silver closed above 18.

GOOG 507.8 +4.94.
SKF 108.9 -3.3. Day range 108.74 - 116.86. Closed near low of day. Stay short.
PDS 21.21 +1.14. Positive all day, with good volume. 52 week high is 27.89. Watch it at 25.
CAU .45 +.02. Building cause.
WFC 31.44 +.7. Set to go higher, look how it goes to 34.
TIE 23.81 -.02. Rejected lower prices today. Look for 26 next week.
AIRM 40.36 -2.55. Research the fundamentals to look for possible short.
RCII 18.34 +.42. Rejected lower price, going higher next week.
LLNW 6.35 -.33. Unlike many stocks today, this did not reject lower prices and it did close at low of day. Look for retest of 5.9 area.

20080221 PM

DJIA 12,284.30 -142.96
NASDAQ 2,299.78 -27.32
S&P 500 1,342.53 -17.50

ANO 4.08 -.15. Close near low of day.
RBY 1.33 +.09. Sold this intra-day.

20080221 1009

DJIA 12,437.11 9.85
NASDAQ 2,341.60 14.50
S&P 500 1,360.43 0.40

RBY 1.36 +.12. Sold this position that was entered yesterday.

20080220 PM, GOOG JOE RBY

DJIA 12,427.26 90.04
NASDAQ 2,327.10 20.91
S&P 500 1,360.03 11.25

Look for indices to keep going up.

Platinum down.
Gold up.
Silver up.
Oil 99.71 down.

ANO 4.23 +.5. Good volume. Expect a pause in price movement at 4.45 to build cause. If it shoots through 4.45 and 4.5, then get ready to close the long.
RBY 1.24 +.17. Bought this today. Looking for about .15 then will sell.
SKF 109.01 -3.99. Day range 108.57 - 115.75. Stay short.
GOOG 509 +.05. Going to test 570. Go long with calls.
JOE 37.7 +1.05. Buy and hold for ten years.
AERO 4.75 +.45. Big percentage moves.

Look at China and Hong Kong indices.

20080219 PM, GCC GSG

DJIA 12,337.22 -10.99
NASDAQ 2,306.19 -15.61
S&P 500 1,348.78 -1.21
Indices opened up and closed down which is not good price action. It did this with much lighter volume, so still looking for markets to go up.

Platinum 2151 +41. Gold and silver also up.
Oil hit 100.

ANO 3.73 +.43. Stay long.
AZK 4.31 +.23.
PAL 8.05 +1.29.
RBY 1.07 +.03. Look to take a partial long position this week.
SWC 17.88 +1.78. 52 week high.
TRE 5.7 -.02. Buy with a tight time stop.

T 35.89 -1.99. Big telecoms offering unlimited calling mobile plans.
VZ 35.34 -2.49.

ETFs to track commodities:
GCC 33.77 +.65. Recent issue.
GSG 56.55 +1.55.

20080215 PM

DJIA 12,348.21 -28.77
NASDAQ 2,321.80 -10.74
S&P 500 1,349.99 +1.13

SSO 69.69 +.29. Bought more at 68.9.
AERO 4.4 -.5. Earnings a day ago, more sell off.
SKF 111.02 -1.13. Closed near low of day.
ATAC 20.03 -.43. Down past few days on earnings. Looks to be at a support area.

VGZ 5.15 -.17.
ANO 3.3 -.02. Building cause to test 4.5 then 5.

20080214 PM

DOW 12,376.98 -175.26 (-1.40%)
NASDAQ 2,332.54 -41.39 (-1.74%)
S&P 500 1,348.86 -18.35 (-1.34%)

Platinum 2011 +33.

AERO 4.9 -1.12. Earnings reported.
STMP 9.78 -1.24. Earnings reported.
FXI 143.62 -3.37.
THC 4.15 -.06. Look to buy.
DUG 41.4 -.2. Look to buy on Friday if option expiration volatility brings in a good price.

20080213 PM

DJIA 12,552.24 178.83
NASDAQ 2,373.92 53.88 Will easily see 2415.
S&P 500 1,367.21 18.35
Markets are going higher, along with financials.

Platinum 1984 +73. Touched 2000 intraday.

ANO 3.31. Platinum miner.
HMY 9.52 -.05. Gold miner can't seem to move higher. Watch it test this area for a potential buy.
VGZ 5.48 +.23. Gold miner.
PDS 19.31 +.57. 8% dividend.
SIGM 45.73 +1.87.
DSX 30.93 +.96. 7.5% dividend. Watch for a buy.

20080212 PM

DJIA 12,373.41 133.40 1.09%
NASDAQ 2,320.04 -0.02 0.00%
S&P 500 1,348.86 9.73 0.73%
10yr Note 98.656 -0.3438 0.35%
FTSE 100 5,910.00 202.30 3.54%
Nikkei 225 13,021.96 4.72 0.04%
Hang Seng 22,921.67 305.56 1.35%
Euro (in USD) 1.458 0.0062 0.43%
Oil 92.78 -0.81 0.87%
Gold 907.40 -15.50 1.68%

ANO 3.31 +.01.
TMA 12.39 -4.62. 8% dividend. Buy and hold.

20080212 1233

DJIA 12,397.47 157.46
NASDAQ 2,333.13 13.07
S&P 500 1,352.22 13.09

SLV 170.9 -3.1. Appears to have found low of day.
VGZ 5.33 -.14. Shorted for a scalp.

20080211 PM

DOW 12,240.01 +57.88 (+0.48%)
NASDAQ 2,320.06 +15.21 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,339.13 +7.84 (+0.59%)

SLV 174 +3.74. Closed at all time high. Look to buy tomorrow to ride more upside in commodity metals.

20080208 1230 Platinum, Subprime Nation

DJIA 12,186.77 -60.23
NASDAQ 2,302.36 9.33
S&P 500 1,332.37 -4.54
Platinum 1871

ANO 3.23 +.08. Small platinum miner for a long term hold. Plan to take actual delivery of stock certificate.


Pat Buchanan
Subprime Nation
Posted: January 14, 2008

Since it began to give credit ratings to nations in 1917, Moody's has rated the United States triple-A. U.S. Treasury bonds have been seen as the most secure investment on earth. When crises erupt, nervous money seeks out the world's great safe harbor, the United States. That reputation is now in peril.

Last week, Moody's warned that if the United States fails to rein in the soaring cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the nation's credit rating will be down-graded within a decade.

...

This self-indulgent generation has borrowed itself into unpayable debt. Now the folks from whom we borrowed to buy all that oil and all those cars, electronics and clothes are coming to buy the country we inherited. We are prodigal sons, and the day of reckoning approaches.

20080206 PM

DJIA 12,200.10 -65.03
NASDAQ 2,278.75 -30.82
S&P 500 1,326.45 -10.19

Platinum all time high.

RCH 6.57 -.14. Dec 06 high of 13.87 had big volume.
SKF 108.29 +2.9.
C 26.92 -.13. Bought today.
ANO 3.02 -.02.

20080205 PM

DJIA 12,265.13 -370.03
NASDAQ 2,309.57 -73.28
S&P 500 1,336.64 -44.18

SKF 105.39 +8.34. ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES. Closed near high of day. Shorted this today.

20080201 PM

DJIA 12,743.19 92.83
NASDAQ 2,413.36 23.50 Good volume pushing higher.
S&P 500 1,395.41 16.86

Gold down 18.
Silver down, platinum up.

UWM 54.42 +2.58. Staying long.
PDS 18.14 +.93. Went long today.
C 29.69 +1.52.
SKF 92.4 -4.85. Ultrashort financials.

20080131 PM

DJIA 12,650.36 207.53
NASDAQ 2,389.86 40.86
S&P 500 1,378.55 22.74. Look for 1440 next mid-week.

ANO 3.3. Accumulating here for long term hold.
SEED 7.9 +.13. The spike to 12 earlier this month had volume. Potential long at low 7s.
WM

20080129 PM

DOW 12,475.18 +91.29 (+0.74%)
NASDAQ 2,354.10 +4.19 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,361.29 +7.32 (+0.54%)

Markets waiting for Fed announcement tomorrow, expecting rate cut.

20080128 PM

DJIA 12,383.89 176.72
NASDAQ 2,349.91 23.72
S&P 500 1,353.97 23.36

Silver up, and gold up to 929, and platinum up.

MELI 42.6 -11.46. Had a partial long position that wasn't closed Friday morning, and got smoked today on the gap down.
SSO 70.25 +2.48. Was able to buy and sell options intraday for 20+%.

20080124 PM

DJIA 12,378.61 108.44
NASDAQ 2,360.92 44.51
S&P 500 1,352.07 13.47

ANO 3.61 +.4. Looks to soon test mid-4s.
SIGM 45.81 +3.94. Plan to stay long for a few days. Look for 52 then maybe 59.
COP 74.47 +2.74. Counter-trend bounce, especially considering sinking price of oil.
AKNS 8.13 +1.08. Squeezed up the last two hours. Ended at high of day. Shorts are trapped. Watch how it handles 9.5.
SOLF 16.15 +.66. Intraday reversed off low of 14.3. Today could have stopped the downtrend for now.
GMO 9.83 +.33. Closed long position today at 9.8.
MELI 56.64 +6.62. Bought today. Supposedly Cramer mentioned this name on his evening show today. December 27 high was 81.17. Next target is 65.5. It had great volume at 81.

20080123PM

DJIA 12,270.17 298.98
NASDAQ 2,316.41 24.14
S&P 500 1,338.60 28.10 Going to 1400 quickly.
Markets wouldn't go lower, so short term bullish. Anticipate this will run up quickly.

SKF 106.03 -16.77. Big volume. Should have looked at this for a short today.
SRS 106.76 -21.74. Big volume.
SSO 68.91 +3.35. Went long intraday for a few hours.
PGH 16.19 +.34. 16.8% dividend. 52 week low yesterday.
GMO 9.5 +.78. Day range 8.29 - 9.65. Went long.
MTG 16.1 +.05. In the morning made 52 week low at 10.4, then reversed and went sharply higher near the close. Can go for about 19.5 then 22.44. Not an investment stock to hold long term.
SIGM 41.87 +.78. Looks to test 43.
ANO 3.21 +.1. Good volume. Look for 3.75 then re-evaluate.
SOLF 16.81 -2.19. Weak when markets were up.
INCY 11.64 +.37. Yesterday it didn't break down, so this biotech is likely to try for 52 week high of 12.72 from January 8, 2008.

20080123 1151

DJIA 11,792.27 -178.92
NASDAQ 2,230.49 -61.78
S&P 500 1,286.22 -24.28

SOLF 17.11 -1.89. Looks to retest some part of yesterday's low around 16.

20080123 1113 Buy for a bounce

DJIA 11,858.28 -112.91
NASDAQ 2,251.66 -40.61
S&P 500 1,295.12 -15.38
Stepping in to buy a broad bounce that should happen the next few days.

XLF 26.57 +.52. Keep an eye on this.
SIGM 41.16 +.07. Shown relative strength lately. Buy.
SSO 64.35 -1.27. Ultra S&P500 ProShares. Buy.
ANO 3.2 +.09. Buy more of this platinum miner.

20080122PM

DOW 11,971.19 -128.11 (-1.06%) Day range 11,634.82 - 12,092.72.
NASDAQ 2,292.27 -47.75 (-2.04%)
S&P 500 1,310.50 -14.69 (-1.11%)
Foreign markets sold off last night 5%-7%.
Fed cut .75 before market open.

ANO 3.11 -.09. Day range 2.77 - 3.19. Buy more here.
SIGM 41.09 +.9. Relative strength.
FXP 97.5 +10.5. High of day 108.89. Look to buy around 85.
RIO 26.85 -1.98 with volume. Looks to retest August 2007 low.

20080118PM

DJIA 12,099.30 -59.91
NASDAQ 2,340.02 -6.88
S&P 500 1,325.19 -8.06
People are still buying the down days.

SIGM 40.19 +4.71. Can bounce to 48 then 50.
MOS 80.02 -.98. Potential short after a bounce.
MON 105.75 +6.14. Potential short after a bounce.
FCEL 8.19 -.29. Look for a buy around 7.
MHS 103.95 -1.90. Potential short after a bounce.
DISH 27.95 -.2. 52 week low, and can go lower.

20080116PM

DOW 12,466.16 -34.95 (-0.28%)
NASDAQ 2,394.59 -23.00 (-0.95%)
S&P 500 1,373.20 -7.75 (-0.56%)
Buyers came in before lunch. Markets need a lot more fear to make a good bottom.
Silver down .42 and gold down 18.

SOLF 19.96 -1.47. Covered the short from yesterday. Next level down is 15, if it keeps sinking.
AN 12.38 +.08. AutoNation will feeling credit squeeze. Intraday made 52 week low.
SEED 9.16 +.11. Low was 8.1.
ABAX 37.33 -.55. At end of day was moving toward day high, so am long overnight. Looking to sell in the morning over 37.5.

20080115PM

DJIA 12,501.11 -277.04
NASDAQ 2,417.59 -60.71
S&P 500 1,380.95 -35.30
Good volume last couple days, and close at low of day. INTC numbers after close were bad, and futures are down. Tomorrow be ready to close shorts after the gap down.
Small pullback in gold and silver.

AEM 58.09 -2.35 on heavy volume. Low of day 57.98. May test 50. Potential short.
SEED 9.05 -.6. Low of day 8.91. Tested the 9 level. Closed this short position. Maybe not done going down, but I wanted to free up capital and closed this short after this nice move.
SOLF 21.43 -3.57. Got short late in the day. It was already down hard, and seemed unable to turn back up. A close below 20 and this can go to 10.
AMD 6.12 -.29. Bad numbers from INTC after close this evening.
DBA 36.58 +.19. Agricultural commodity fund up 50% since summer.
ABAX 37.88 +.73. Strong today. Look to buy tomorrow when market gaps down. Going for retest of 40. Abaxis, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets portable blood analysis systems for use in any veterinary or human patient-care setting to provide clinicians with rapid blood constituent measurements.

20080114 1317

DJIA 12,762.94 +156.64
NASDAQ 2,475.43 +35.49
S&P 500 1,413.62 +12.60

Markets are slightly off the highs of today.

SEED 9.93 -.98 on volume. Was up earlier, and is breaking down and taking out stops. Previous close was 10.91. May test 9 this week.

20080111PM Jim Sinclair, Inflation

DOW 12,606.30 -246.79 (-1.92%)
NASDAQ 2,439.94 -48.58 (-1.95%)
S&P 500 1,401.02 -19.31 (-1.36%)
Gold and platinum hit all time highs. Silver hit highest price since 1980.
It is tough to be short, as folks are expecting a giant Fed-induced rally any day now.

BRK-A 132,100 -2100. Lots of time was spent at 110,000 up until the credit problems last summer.
FRPT 4.02 -.26.



Jim Sinclair runs TRE.
Posted On: Friday, January 11, 2008, 3:03:00 PM EST
Author: Jim Sinclair
My Dear Extended Family,

Please, for me and for you, protect yourselves. I did not spend all this time with you to ensure you made money in gold for no reason. I wish accomplish two goals here:

1. Pass on my knowledge to you as a gift.
2. Protect you and therefore your family and their futures in the totally unavoidable dislocation of all you hold dear in the next three years.

It is not only the US financial system, it is the world financial system that has sprung terminal and unstoppable leaks. What is coming is a combination of unparalleled geopolitical events and the downside of unbridled greed; one unprecedented in world history that will literally kill people.

* Have you acted to protect yourself?
* Do you have debt?
* Have you equaled your debt with 100% fully paid gold?
* Have you eliminated any margin on investments?
* Have you done everything possible to eliminate agents between yourself and your assets?
* Have you taken delivery of your coins from your coin dealer?
* Are you doing business in any SUBSTANTIAL way with any internet financial entity, even those that have the word gold in their title?
* Have you taken delivery of paper certificates for those items you have deemed investments?

Your opportunity for taking physical delivery of paper shares of ANY company is coming to an end.
Major brokerage houses have indicated and some have already put in place a policy of electronic shares only. What that means is that they simply refuse by operating practice to forward your request for paper certificates.

Since the transfer agent requires a signature guarantee and your shares are now at the refusing broker you cannot get the proper request and documents to the transfer agent.

This means you take delivery now or forever have an agent between what you own and yourself. Now means today, not tomorrow.



St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank says government if primary beneficiary of inflation. Inflation crushes the middle class and those on a fixed income. I would add that the Federal Reserve banks also benefit from inflation, as they are the first to touch the newly created money.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS, NOVEMBER 1976

CONCLUSION
...
In recent years, some economists have argued that
there are benefits to inflation and, if the rate is stable
and can be fully anticipated, there is little or no cost
to society. The cost of perfectly anticipated inflation
is its wellare cost. It results from the loss in welfare
due to the substitution away from real money balances.
While this cost may be small in relation to the
costs of redistributions of income and wealth when
inflation is unanticipated, it is comparable to the welfare
costs of other major components of the U. S. tax
system at levels of inflation as low as 5 percent.
Moreover, the size of the welfare cost of inflation
increases rapidly with the size of the rate of inflation
itself. The welfare cost of inflation is independent of
resource costs incurred to economize on cash balances;
indeed, the analysis assumes these costs to be
zero. To the extent that valuable resources are used
to economize on cash holdings, the cost of perfectly
anticipated inflation is even greater.
One of the primary benefits of inflation is the
revenue it produces for the government.

20080110PM

DJIA 12,853.09 117.78
NASDAQ 2,488.52 13.97
S&P 500 1,420.33 11.20

Metals at highs. Silver above 16.

CVI 25.13 +.2. This morning the lower opening took out my trailing stop on this long.
AKNS 10.63 +.77. Trailing stop exited this long.
VMW 80.49 +.6. Up on light volume. Yesterday went long option vmwap at 3.2. Today exited at 4.1. Today's vmwap range 2.8 - 4.6.
LNOP 11.5 -.15. Huge volume. Going down to 10.
NGD 5.59 +.3. Big volume. 8.7 wants to be tested.
GOOG 646.73 -6.47. Going to 625. This has a big impact on the Qs.