Friday, January 30, 2009

20090130 1005, DRYS

DJIA 8,116.03 -32.98
NASDAQ 1,502.83 -5.01
SP500 841.17 -3.97
Silver and gold walking higher.
Market opened up on news and is now trading down. Terrible market action puts the risk to the downside to November 21 2008 lows and potentially further down.

DRYS 7.5 -1.06. Previous close 8.56. Order to cover short at 8.12 was executed after opening. Day low so far is 7.25, so there may be a tradeable intra-day bounce. After covering I checked if shares were available to short, and the broker had none.
BGZ 66.29 +.79. Long of this triple short at 66.21. Opened below previous close and has moved higher. Day range 63.89 - 66.76.

20090129 PM

Dow 8,149.01 -226.44 (2.70%)
Nasdaq 1,507.84 -50.50 (3.24%)
S&P 500 845.14 -28.95 (3.31%)
10-Yr Bond 2.815% +.159
NYSE Volume 5,815,881,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,968,785,250

Market gave up yesterday's gains.
Silver and gold continue to walk higher.

Wednesday the market was up and the end-of-day paper stop on DRYS was hit. I expected to cover the short after the open on Thursday. Thursday the markets went down. The volatility is such that even wide stops that are in the market can be taken out, and the next day the position can quickly reverse.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

20090128 PM

Dow 8,375.45 +200.72
Nasdaq 1,558.34 +53.44
S&P 500 874.09 +28.38
10-Yr Bond 2.6560% +.1370
NYSE Volume 7,158,789,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,175,101,250
Silver and gold slightly down.

Government announcement about expanding the bank bailout was taken positively and financials led the way higher.

APL 7.45 +1.1. Dividend declared.
DRYS 12.22 +.92.
GBG 1.1 -.05. Sold at 1.17 in the morning.
XLF10.31 +1.17.

20090128 1014

DJIA 8,281.94 +107.21
NASDAQ 1,535.84 +30.94
S&P 500 862.29 +16.58
Financials helped indices gap up. Watching if volume can pick up to confirm move up, or if this will fail.

GBG 1.15. Sold at 1.17. Look to buy retracement.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

20090127 PM

DJIA 8,174.73 58.70
NASDAQ 1,504.90 15.44
SP500 845.71 9.14
Indices moderately higher on anemic volume.
Metals slightly down.

DRYS 11.30 -0.10.
SDS 78.50 -1.71. 60 cent range of prices in each of the last few minutes of trading. Bought at 78.01 today to hold for a few days.

XLF 9.14 +0.31.
FAS 57.63 -5.30. Had buy order at 56.8 open until the last hour of the day when I pulled the buy order. 56.71 was touched in the last hour. Day range 56.71 - 63.00. The short would have been when it climbed back to yesterday's close and failed.

INSU 19.65 +.25. Insituform Technologies

20090127 AM

Potential shorts:
CAT
DRYS
UTEK

FAZ (XLF triple short)

20090126 PM

DOW 8116.03 +38.47
NASDAQ 1489.46 +12.17
SP500 836.57 +4.62
CBOE Volatility VIX* 45.69 -1.58

Metal and oils up. Gold at highs in many currencies (not the dollar).

Pre-market down on news that UK banks were "hours" away from collapse last Fall. Markets were up in the morning then pulled back to close slightly up. Unable to hold up, the markets look weak and there may be a strong pullback.
There are no buyers, so other than a short squeeze there isn't much to propel the market higher.

DRYS had nice move up in the morning, so closed the long position (for loss).
BGU when market appeared to not be holding highs of day, put in tight trailing stop and the long was closed (breakeven).

GLD SLV looking to retrace. Mid and long term want to be long.

Friday, January 23, 2009

20090123 PM

Dow 8,077.56 -45.24
Nasdaq 1,477.29 +11.80
SP500 831.95 +4.45
10 Yr Bond(%) 2.6220% +0.0280
FTSE 100 4,052.47 +0.24
DAX 4,178.94 -40.48
CAC 40 2,849.14 -20.48
Nikkei 225 7,745.25 -306.49
Hang Seng 12,578.60 -79.39
Straits Times 1,685.23 -23.54

Indices opened down and recovered during the day. Metals strong.

DGP 19.10 +1.74 10.02%. Closed long in tax-deferred account. Look to buy a retracement.
TRE 3.59 +.16 4.66%. Closed long in tax-deferred account. Look to buy a retracement.
XLF 8.99 +.29. Seems to be holding up during ongoing banking implosions.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

20090121PM, 15/40 EMA

Dow 8,228.10 +279.01 +3.51%.
Nasdaq 1,507.07 +66.21 +4.60%.
SP500 840.24 +35.02 +4.35%. Expect a fast acceleration up. Shorts from past two days are trapped and will push the market up. Resistance at 875 then 920.

The long government bonds may be breaking down.

Yesterday financials had huge sell-off. Yesterday the market indices price destruction with light volume. This morning was down slightly and when it couldn't break down further (into November 21) there was a sharp rally. Many financials had large large percentage moves up today.
After seven down days, look for a rally into Friday. If the rally is big, consider selling on Friday or Monday morning for a pullback early next week.


SQNM 25.54 +1.50. 52 week range 5.00 - 29.14.
HOTT 8.71 +.40.

XLF 9.27 +1.19. Back above November 21 lows. Good volume.
HIG 13.49 +1.98 (17.20%). Lightish volume. Needs volume to come in to sustain the up move.

Interesting idea, though it didn't get confirmed today with the markets up.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
The breakdown of the seven year trend in the cross rate between the Euro and the Yen in early September was a major warning sign that significant deleveraging was underway. Within a matter of two months the Euro gave back six years of ground it gained relative to the Yen, and the stabilization in the markets in October and November of last year was associated with the sell off in the Euro relative to the Yen abating. Since that time the cross rate between the two currencies has fluctuated between roughly 1.16 and 1.30, with rallies in the cross rate associated with market rallies and declines in the cross rate associated with market sell offs.
What I have been watching for as a sign that the markets were heading higher or lower is a resolution to the upside or downside in the Euro/Yen cross rate, and yesterday brought that resolution, unfortunately, with a break to the downside. Not only did the Euro fall to new lows relative to the Yen, but so too did a swath of other global currencies as highlighted in the figure below in two separate panels, which means a test of the November lows is likely in the weeks ahead.

Interesting long term trading idea.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2009/0107.html
One great long term market timing tool highlighted by Brian Pretti is the 15/40 exponential moving average (EMA) cross. It gave a buy signal in 1995 and kept you in the market up until 2000 when it went into a sell. It ignored all the bear market bounces and didn’t turn positive until 2003, only to turn negative four years later in 2007, quite the track record in just the past decade and one half. As seen below, the signal is still a ways off from crossing and the current rally remains to be a bear market rally until proven otherwise.
Historically, the 15/40 EMA signal has had a great track record and would have gotten investors out in 1929 and kept them out until just after the end of the Great Depression in 1932. It also proved quite useful for most of the rest of the decade, though the signaling system did not perform well in the sideways action from 1937-1941.

Friday, January 16, 2009

20090116 1032, SSO DRYS

DJIA 8,306.55 +94.06
NASDAQ 1,526.29 +14.45
SP500 853.41 +9.67
Indices opened up along with gold, silver, and oil. Looking for indices to make a stronger up move today.

SSO 23.61 +.56. Was stopped out several days ago just after buying.
DRYS 14.94 +.33. Scalp short after the open and quickly closed it with tight trailing stop. Went long after closing short for another quick trade.
BGU 31.18 +1.08. Looking to close this long later today.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

20090115 PM

Markets started down and reversed to close higher, rejecting lower prices. After market close, politicians release more TARP funds.

TRE 3.31 +.35

HIG 13.20 -.59.
MFC 18.15 +.35.

IYR 32.36 +.91. iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate. Buy this looking for 39+, or buy URE.

DIG 26.78 +.64. Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares. Closed at high.

ACM 25.10 +.66. Short candidate if this goes higher over the next few days.

DRYS 14.60 -.35. Looks to test 17.

20090114 PM

DOW 8,200.14 -248.42 (-2.94%)
NASDAQ 1,489.64 -56.82 (-3.67%)
S&P 500 842.62 -29.17 (-3.35%)
Market avoided collapse on terrible news: worst retail sales ever, continuing layoffs, banks needing more gov't bailouts. While the indices were down the first ninety minutes, the indices stabilized and volume did not increase.
SPX and indices attempted a recovery in the afternoon and then rolled over to close near lows of day. This is fast price destruction with lighter volume which can set up a quick turn up.

Commercial real estate is setting up for a cliff-dive due to renters leaving, falling property values, and more stringent lending.

CNSL 11.19 -.78
GNCMA 6.56 -1.13

AEM 45.05 -2.58

HIG 13.79 -1.65

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

20090114 1414, BGU DZZ

DJIA 8,210.81 -237.75
NASDAQ 1,499.34 -47.12
SP500 844.34 -27.45
The force lower doesn't seem to be present, so let's see if a move up can be sustained.

BGU 30.01 -2.92. Bought at 30. Watch closely.
DZZ 28.59 +.57. Gold double short should move inverse to market indices, so expect this can give back today's gains. DGP is double gold long.

20090114 1405, Gold DZZ

DJIA 8,183.10 -265.46
NASDAQ 1,494.95 -51.51
SP500 840.82 -30.97. Here it is ... 850 S&P 500.
Volumes seem light to sustain the selling. When this turns up it could go fast and quickly force shorts to cover.

Gold is trading around 800/oz. While it could stabilize here, it could also easily test 750s.

DZZ 28.80 +0.78. Gold double short. Sold at 28.66.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

20090113 1543, DXO

DJIA 8,457.56 -16.41
NASDAQ 1,547.28 8.49
SP500 872.39 2.13

DXO 2.98. Sold for gain on the scalp trade of oil.
DZZ 28. Bought at 28 and looking to clear this out.

20090113 0935, USO SSO DZZ

Indices have been lower past five days. Expect a mild bounce.

Buying SSO and DZZ. Tight stop on DZZ and possibly close during the day.

A week ago the oil long USO was closed after holding overnight, and APL covered calls were sold to provide a small hedge.

Monday, January 05, 2009

20090105 PM, APL DZZ MFC PPD TRAK TLT VIX XLF Fund Rebalancing

DJIA 8,952.89 -81.80
NASDAQ 1,628.03 -4.18
SP500 927.45 -4.35. Can short S&P 500 down to 850s area. May be a fast move down - in a week. Watch the volume going into 900 to 850s.
Metals lower, oil up. Oil will find good resistance at 49 and 50. Yearly commodity fund rebalancing is blamed for gold/oil sell-off.
GLD 84.48 -1.75. Looks to go lower over next week.
DZZ 26.04 +.97. Gold double short.

APL 7.97 +.64. Took partial profit this morning. Look to take all profits soon, or hedge by selling covered calls.
UCO 17.16 +1.5. Took proceeds from APL and went long UCO today for swing trade.

VIX 39.08 -.11. Lower price than last three months of trading. If market volatility increases and indices sell off over the next week, the VIX price can go higher. Can get to 50 quickly.

MFC 19.16 +1.97. Watch how this acts when financials pull back. Potential buy if it acts OK.
XLF 12.45 -.21. Can short down to 11.5 area.

SWC 5.94 +.09. Relative strength in this miner. Wait to buy.
TRAK 12.86 +.52. 52 week range 8.84 - 30.38. After hours announced will lighten staff by 8% including CFO. Fundamentally, selling software and services to auto dealers is a business that will see fewer sales and compressed margins. Look to short this if it goes higher.
PPD 37.01 -.15. Can easily retrace to 35.

US long-dated bond:
TLT 113.35 -3. Over the weekend, Barron's had an article calling for a top in these long-dated US government bonds. Fundamentally it is difficult to understand how they could go much higher.
TBT 41.52 +2.52. Last few days this has moved. Expect it to retrace the gains over this month.



Put this on the reminder calendar for next year!
Beware, commodity index rebalancing ahead
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 05 15:34.

The major commodity indices rebalance their respective asset weightings once a year (or occasionally more) — and with that comes a mass dose of buying and selling. The 2009 rebalancing is expected to start sometime this week.

Luckily, JP Morgan has produced its best guess of how the 2009 reweightings of the DJ AIGCI and the S&P GSCI indices will impact the market.

The weightings for both indices are released ahead of time, but begin to kick in the first few working days of the new year.
...

20090105 1409, APL

DJIA 9,027.44 -7.25
NASDAQ 1,639.76 7.55
SP500 935.95 4.15
Gold down more than 15. Precious metals and currency continue their sharp moves.

APL 8.4 +1.07. Sold 1/4 position this morning. This is more than doubling the move up in oil.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

20090102PM, Oil Real Estate APL FAS BGU

DOW 9,034.69 +258.30 (+2.94%)
NASDAQ 1,632.21 +55.18 (+3.50%)
SP500 931.80 +28.55 (+3.16%)
Light volume with nice percentage gain this week. Typically would look for downside pressure next week. Watch volume at 951 on the SP500.
The talk of a market up-move before the inauguration is just hope. Maybe it happens and maybe it doesn't happen.

Earlier this week closed SSO (gain), BGU (gain), and FAS (small loss).
APL 7.33 +1.33. 52% dividend. Was looking to buy this on any oil pullback. It started moving up so I bought the breakout. Risky strategy as breakouts can fail.

UCO 15.66 +1.97. Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares. New issue.

Real Estate:
SRS 53.23 +2.52. Decent volume the past couple days.
URE 5.99 -.41. Can quickly go a buck or so lower.