20110228 PM

Dow 12,226.34 +95.89
Nasdaq 2,782.27 +1.22
SP500 1,322.75 +2.87
30-yrBond 4.49% -0.03

GLD 137.66 +0.28
SLV 33.11 +0.55
PTM 21.31 +0.12

XLE 78.54 +0.60
XLF 16.85 +0.08
VXX 30.18 -1.33

Final day of trading month.
Dollar closed lower at 76.86, below the important 77. Bernanke of the private central bank known as the Federal Reserve speaks tomorrow at 10AM about QE2 and more money printing. Look for dollar strength.
Metals higher. Silver continued a breath-taking climb higher and closed near day highs. In 2010 precious metals went higher, paused, then went higher again in the Spring. Big miners seem weak and are diverging from price of silver an silver explorers.

AGQ 186.26 +6.44. Closed at 184.50 for 36.55 per share gain.
SVM 13.08 +0.39. Closed at 12.89 for .21 per share gain.

GPL 4.08 +0.62 (17.92%). Am long from 2.88.

MDW 1.94 +0.23 (13.45%)

LLNW 6.95 -0.43 (5.83%). Very weak. Short it.

20110228 1328

DJIA 12,172.07 +41.62
NASDAQ 2,768.59 -12.46
SP500 1,320.88 +1.00

Stock market indices showed signs of weakness, so trailing stops were placed. A red close will give bears some ammunition to start March.

AGQ 183.14 +3.32. Closed at 184.50 for 36.55 per share gain.

20110225 Weekend

Dow 12,130.45 +61.95
Nasdaq 2,781.05 +43.15
SP500 1,319.88 +13.78
30-yrBond 4.52% -0.02

Dollar closed at 77.21. It flirted around 77.00 during the day. A close below 77 and the dollar could start a steep slide.
Volatility and big downside for precious metals on Thursday. Today silver had a strong recovery.

GLD 137.38 +0.90
SLV 32.56 +1.37 (4.38%)
PTM 21.19 -0.09

XLE 77.94 +1.22
XLF 16.77 +0.23
VXX 31.51 -2.17 (6.44%)

GPL 3.46 +0.21 (6.46%)
SVM 12.69 +0.64 (5.31%)

PSLV 15.09 +0.5. Sprott Physical Silver Trust. 16% premium offer net asset value.
CZICF 1.31 +0.10 (8.26%). Canadian Zinc Corp. 52 week range 0.30 - 1.53 high set recently.
MDW 1.71 +0.31 (22.14%). 52 week high.

20110223 PM

Dow 12,105.78 -107.01
Nasdaq 2,722.99 -33.43
SP500 1,307.40 -8.04
10-YrBond 3.49% +0.03

Oil was higher, and precious metals were higher.

GLD 137.51 +1.22
SLV 32.71 +0.45
PTM 21.85 +0.38

XLE 77.82 +1.55
XLF 16.58 -0.07
VXX 34.01 +1.46 (4.49%)

GPL 3.47 +0.28 (8.78%). Great Panther Silver Limited. Intraday all time high on good volume. 52 week range 0.64 - 3.48. Look for volatile basing, then higher prices.

TLR 1.29 +0.21 (19.43%). Timberline Resources Corp. Big volume. 52 week range 0.73 - 1.47.

20110222 PM, Commercial Signal Failure

Dow 12,212.79 -178.46
Nasdaq 2,756.42 -77.53
SP500 1,315.44 -27.57
10-YrBond 3.46% -0.13

Stock indices opened lower, tried to rebound, then sold off the remainder of the day. For bulls, a few days of pullback will be healthy.

Over the long weekend, precious metals were higher. Today precious metals gave back much of the gain from over the long weekend. Over-leveraged silver longs were likely stopped out today. If you just look at closing prices Friday vs. Tuesday, it was not a big loss. Monday vs. Tuesday was a huge loss ... $2 silver sell-off. Expect the remaining three trading days of this week to be volatile, with the close this Friday being above $34 ... moving into the price from yesterday (Monday, when most USA markets were closed). A Friday close below $33 will put silver into a multi-month consolidation.

Copper was slightly lower.

Grains and cotton were limit down. West Texas oil was over 9% higher, catching up to the Brent price. $4/gallon at the pump in the USA is likely within six months.

GLD 136.29 +0.88
SLV 32.26 +0.47
PTM 21.47 -0.24

XLE 76.27 -0.75
XLF 16.65 -0.53
VXX 32.55 +3.52 (12.13%)

JJC 57.43 -2.13 (3.58%). iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.

Dan Norcini explained a Commercial Signal Failure and answered follow-up questions.

VIXY 70.80 +7.86 (12.49%). ProShares Trust VIX Short-Term.
VIXM 70.39 +3.94 (5.93%). ProShares Trust VIX Mid-Term.

ANO 1.29 -0.14 (9.79%)
MDW 1.33 -0.22 (14.19%)

20110218 Weekend

Dow 12,391.25 +73.11
Nasdaq 2,833.95 +2.37
SP500 1,343.01 +2.58
30-yrBond 4.70% +0.04

Silver had a huge week with Thursday and Friday price explosions. After running higher Friday, it gave back some gains then made a strong showing into the close. The CME raised margin requirements, though this did not cause a sell-off. Did UBS just wake up?

"... UBS said on Friday it has raised its one-month silver price forecast to $35 (£21.60) an ounce from $25.50 an ounce previously ..."

Let's see how much resistance is encountered for silver at $33 - $33.30.

GLD 135.41 +0.37
SLV 31.79 +0.76
PTM 21.71 -0.06

XLE 77.02 +0.32
XLF 17.18 +0.04
VXX 29.03 +0.24

BAL 98.06 -12.94 (11.66%). iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN.
JJC 59.56 -0.52. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.

EXK 7.30 +0.15. Endeavour Silver Corp.
TRE 7.15 +0.09. Rumored eminent short squeeze.

AGQ 172.27 +8.10 (4.93%). ProShares Ultra Silver.
GPL 3.07 +0.18 (6.23%). Great Panther Silver Limited. All time high. Blue skies above.
SVM 13.06 +0.35 (2.75%). Silvercorp Metals Inc. 52 week high is 13.60.

20110217 PM

Dow 12,318.14 +29.97
Nasdaq 2,831.58 +6.02
SP500 1,340.43 +4.11
10YrBond(%) 3.5740% -0.0470
Oil 86.36 +1.37

Tomorrow, Friday, is option expiry. Markets are closed Monday.

GLD 135.04 +0.94
SLV 31.03 +1.07 (+3.57%). Huge move.
PTM 21.77 +0.20

XLE 76.70 +0.75
XLF 17.14 -0.02
VXX 28.79 +0.33

BAL 111.00 +7.07 (6.80%). iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN.
JJC 60.08 +0.25. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.
EXK 7.15 +0.12. Endeavour Silver Corp.

NENE 1.67 -0.03. Tired of looking at the miniature number of place holder shares so sold for .49 per share loss.
AGQ 164.17 +10.88 (7.10%). ProShares Ultra Silver.
GPL 2.89 +0.13. Great Panther Silver Limited. Bought at 2.88. Near 52 week high.
SVM 12.71 +0.45. Silvercorp Metals Inc. Bought at 12.68. 52 week range 5.86 - 13.60. Was in low 20s in late 2007.

20110216 PM

Dow 12,288.17 +61.53
Nasdaq 2,825.56 +21.21
SP500 1,336.32 +8.31
10YrBond(%) 3.6210% +0.005

Oil 85.29 +0.30

GLD 134.10 +0.13
SLV 29.96 -0.04
PTM 21.57 +0.0399

XLE 75.95 +1.00
XLF 17.16 +0.0925
VXX 28.46 +0.35. Rejected intraday law and ramped higher in the last few minutes.

JJC 59.83 -0.42. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN. Watching copper as it had been leading precious metals.

20110215 1013

DJIA 12,211.66 -56.53
NASDAQ 2,804.51 -12.67
SP500 1,326.67 -5.65

Copper and precious metals continue higher.
Oil at 85.24 has sold off the past week.

AGQ 154.18 +0.77. Sold 1/2 of long position at 154.72 for 13.44 per share gain. Booking some profits while keeping partial position for remainder of this week.

20110211 Weekend, Bonds Dollar Precious Metals and Buy The Dip

Dow 12,273.26 +43.97
Nasdaq 2,809.44 +18.99
SP500 1,329.15 +7.28
30-yrBond 4.71% -0.06

GLD 132.32 -0.53
SLV 29.21 -0.25
PTM 21.17 -0.33

XLE 74.11 -0.01
XLF 17.08 +0.23
VXX 28.02 -0.49

"Buy The Dip" traders were back in action. With the Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations along with the Fed's secret operations to prop up stock indices and hold down short term interest rates, the inflationary bubble in paper assets continues to expand. Some day the shorts will be right. Until then, "buy the dip" continues to work.
Industrial metal copper is roaring.
Precious metals had a nice week. 3rd up week for silver, and gold put in an up week. Silver is in backwardation, which indicates intense demand for the physical. If gold also goes into backwardation, bail out of the dollar.

EGPT 18.60 +0.80 (4.48%). Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF. Egypt's President Mubarak stepped down.

BAL 96.21 -1.13. iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN. 52 week range 35.64 - 98.16.
SGG 90.35 -3.11. iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN.
TLT 89.46 +1.27. 52 week range 87.30 - 109.34. May be putting in a triple bottom.

CRESY 18.28 +0.05. Cresud Inc. Agricultural land and farming "... production of basic agricultural commodities primarily in Brazil and other Latin American countries."

AAPL 356.85 +2.31. Had a sharp dip on Thursday. HFT gaming the system?

Miners:
JAG 5.23 +0.05. Jaguar Mining Inc. 52 week range 5.06 - 12.20. Watching for sign of strength.
MDW 1.40 -0.01. Volatile. Day range 1.32 - 1.53.
NAK 18.17 -0.02. Possible buy at 11.10.
NG 14.37 -0.13. Possible buy at 9.52.
TGB 5.94 +0.09. Copper and gold.

20110210 1427

DJIA 12,213.36 -26.53
NASDAQ 2,785.95 -3.12
SP500 1,319.68 -1.20

Precious metals were pushed down overnight and have stabilized. Silver (not SLV) tested 29.7 then went higher. This is a good sign for precious metals.

If the long bond drops further, The Federal Reserve and The Ben Bernank (through their primary bond dealers, open market operations, and trading from their secret accounts in the Cayman Islands) will fail in their mission of manipulating normal credit cycles.
Place your bets.

GLD 132.88 -0.19
SLV 29.41 -0.11
PTM 21.65 -0.24

AGQ 147.95 -1.18. Bought more at 147.95. Depending on price action, may take one more piece tomorrow morning.

20110209 PM

Dow 12,239.89 -6.74
Nasdaq 2,789.07 -7.98
SP500 1,320.88 -3.69
30-yrBond 4.70% -0.07

Indices are down after-hours, led by 10% CSCO drop due to earnings.

GLD 133.07 -0.07
SLV 29.52 -0.12
PTM 21.89 -0.04

XLE 73.37 -0.94
XLF 16.85 -0.12
VXX 28.51 +0.09

GBG 2.69 -0.09. Closed long position today for a loss.

NAK 17.64 -2.96 (14.37%). Possible buy at 11.10.
NG 14.29 -0.51. Possible buy at 9.52.
TGB 5.86 -0.11.

20110209 1307

DJIA 12,221.23 -11.92
NASDAQ 2,791.11 -5.94
SP500 1,319.66 -4.91

GBG 2.68 -0.1. Have not liked the way this has been acting, relative to other miners. Sold for .32 per share loss.

20110208 PM

Dow 12,233.15 +71.52
Nasdaq 2,797.05 +13.06
SP500 1,324.57 +5.52
10-YrBond 3.73% +0.08

GLD 133.14 +1.46
SLV 29.64 +0.98
PTM 21.93 +0.27

XLE 74.31 -0.25
XLF 16.97 +0.12
VXX 28.42 -0.35

China had an interest rate increase. This caused a short-lived precious metal setback. Dollar was slightly lower.
Silver did better than gold with a larger move higher. Silver looks to go higher.

AGQ 150.36 +9.32 (6.61%).
DBA 34.39 -0.02. Muddling around and making nervous, so sold for .35 per share gain to free up cash.
GBG 2.78 -0.01. Relative weakness. Considering selling.

MDW 1.48 +0.21 (16.54%). Moving higher off the spike low last week.
UXG 7.65 +0.54 (7.59%). Decent volume. Looks to retest recent 52 week high. 52 week range 2.15 - 8.32.

20110208

DJIA 12,176.16 +14.53
NASDAQ 2,778.44 -5.55
SP500 1,318.90 -0.15

DBA 34.29 -0.12. Sold for .36 per share gain.

20110204 Weekend

Dow 12,092.15 +29.89
Nasdaq 2,769.30 +15.42
SP500 1,310.87 +3.77
30-yrBond 4.74% +0.08

GLD 131.66 -0.54
SLV 28.40 +0.12
PTM 21.72 +0.10

XLE 74.13 -0.19
XLF 16.61 -0.01
VXX 29.21 -0.74

AGQ 138.20 +1.12. Day range 135.29 - 140.47. Sizable daily range.
DBA 34.32 -0.05
GBG 2.79 +0.12 (4.49%). Consider closing this long.
MDW 1.20 +0.12 (9.09%). Gave up yesterday's rebound.
NENE 1.70 +0.07 (4.3%)

INFN 8.45 +0.6700 (8.61%). Steady ramp higher to close near day high. Will fill the recent gap when it rises to 8.83.

20110203 PM, High Yield

Dow 12,062.26 +20.29
Nasdaq 2,753.88 +4.32
SP500 1,307.10 +3.07
30-yrBond 4.66% +0.02

GLD 132.20 +1.75
SLV 28.29 +0.59
PTM 21.62 +0.04

XLE 74.32 +0.04
XLF 16.61 0.00
VXX 29.95 -0.39

Higher dollar put pressure on soft commodities.  Cotton went to Civil War era high then reversed.  Sugar also went higher then reversed.  After morning weakness, precious metals went higher.

AGQ 137.08 5.38 (4.09%)
DBA 34.37 -0.53. Higher dollar pushed down soft commodities.  Considering action in cotton and sugar, consider selling DBA.

COST 74.03 +3.18 (4.49%)
EEE 3.61 +0.34 (10.40%). Has been on a tear the past week.
MDW 1.32 +0.14 (11.86%). Big recovery from yesterday.

High yield:
NLY 17.92 -0.07.  Annaly Capital Management, Inc.  Dividend 14.30%.  Buy around 14.
AGNC 28.90 -0.08.  American Capital Agency Corp.  Dividend 19.40%.  Maybe buy at 26.05.

Notice how the prices are going back to 2008:

Baltic Dry Index

PowerShares DB Agriculture

20110203 1209

DJIA 12,033.04 -8.93
NASDAQ 2,750.28 +0.72
SP500 1,301.88 -2.15

GLD 131.95 +1.50
SLV 27.98 +0.29
PTM 21.40 -0.19

Dollar ramped higher by .70 and has started to pull back. Precious metals were lower and have caught a bid to be slightly positive.

AGQ 134.42 +2.72. ProShares Ultra Silver. Bought at 134.61 with intention of holding for several days. Made 52 week high of 161.45 in December.

20110202 PM

Dow 12,041.97 +1.81
Nasdaq 2,749.56 -1.63
SP500 1,304.03 -3.56
30-yrBond 4.64% +0.03

GLD 130.45 -0.35
SLV 27.70 -0.17
PTM 21.59 +0.10

XLE 74.28 -0.06
XLF 16.61 -0.13
VXX 30.34 -0.14

DBA 34.90 +0.39

MDW 1.17 -0.11 (8.59%). Day range 1.03 - 1.30. With the quick intraday drop, they probably took out the resting stops.
EGPT 17.84 -0.68 (3.67%). Made some recovery during day then sold off into the close. Trading volume the past few days had been 10x average.
REE 14.50 +1.83 (14.44%). Rare Element Resources Ltd. Hot stock with poor fundamentals.
THQI 6.41 +0.40. After hours down .71.

South African miners, Rand currency exposure:
GBG 2.72 +0.04
GFI 16.12 +0.01

Canadian miners:
ABX 47.53 -0.73
GG 40.82 -0.34

20110202 1442

DJIA 12,047.92 +7.76
NASDAQ 2,752.58 +1.39
SP500 1,305.02 -2.57

MDW 1.17 -0.11 (-8.59%). Two days ago put in a limit order to sell. Should have put in a trailing stop. Sold out at 1.17 for .02 per share gain.

EGPT 18.44 -0.076. Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF. Lows of day could not be sustained and price is recovering. Resistance in the high 18s.

20110201 PM

Dow 12,040.16 +148.23
Nasdaq 2,751.19 +51.11
SP500 1,307.59 +21.47
30-yrBond 4.61% +0.04

GLD 130.80 +0.93. With political unrest in Egypt, maybe this should have moved more.
SLV 27.87 +0.48. Decent move higher.
PTM 21.49 +0.42

XLE 74.34 +1.19
XLF 16.74 +0.34
VXX 30.48 -1.55

DBA 34.51 +0.22
GBG 2.68 +0.02
MDW 1.28 +0.02
NENE 1.68 +0.28