Monday, June 28, 2010

20100625 Weekend

Dow 10,143.81 -8.99
Nasdaq 2,223.48 +6.06
SP500 1,076.76 +3.07
30-yrBond 4.07% -0.17

G20 meets this weekend. Expect talk of austerity measures while they will actually implement further bailouts and propping up of the broken financial pieces.

GLD 122.76 +1.46
SLV 18.67 +0.41
PTM 18.47 -0.06

XLE 52.49 +0.15
XLF 14.64 +0.39

VXX 27.72 -0.63

Thursday, June 24, 2010

20100624 1006

DOW 10,213.72 -84.720
NASDAQ 2,230.57 -23.660
SP500 1,081.57 -10.470

On the open indices gapped down and sold lower, quickly using up downside energy. Indices will chop around and attempt to stabilize. Metals are regaining some of the moderate overnight losses.

SSO 35.57 -0.66. Added to long position at 35.55.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

20100623 PM

Dow 10,298.44 +4.92
Nasdaq 2,254.23 -7.57
SP500 1,092.04 -3.27
30-yrBond 4.0600% -0.0390

For those with bullish bias, the market held up well in the face of negative news (very weak new house sales, additional gas leakage in Gulf of Mexico).

GLD 120.95 -0.50
SLV 18.18 -0.24
PTM 18.66 -0.28

XLE 53.46 -0.41
XLF 14.51 -0.07

VXX 26.71 +0.22

SSO 36.23 -0.25

20100623 1023

DOW 10,256.49 -37.030
NASDAQ 2,241.83 -19.970
SP500 1,087.81 -7.500

Low new home sales report sparked further selling. A lot of downside energy has been used. Potential bounce is setting up.

Metals lower.

SSO 36.01 -0.47. Bought at 35.96 for a scalp.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

20100622 1440

DOW 10,383.84 -58.570
NASDAQ 2,281.83 -7.260
SP500 1,104.74 -8.460

BGZ 14.95 +0.372. Trailing stop closed this position for .46 gain.

Monday, June 21, 2010

20100621 PM

Dow 10,442.41 -8.23
Nasdaq 2,289.09 -20.71
SP500 1,113.20 -4.31. Can easily test 1080s.
10-YrBond 3.24% -0.20

Asia and Europe closed positive. US indices unable to close positive.
Gold made slightly higher high then sold off. Can break $100 lower. Looks OK to short gold on a bounce until the FOMC meets on Wednesday.

Euro was volatile and closed lower. Dollar higher.
Eclipse next Monday.
Over the weekend, some press reported that China will allow it's currency to be revalued. China's currency had the same set price today. This "news" appears to be over-stated or the Chinese were misinterpreted.

Fed's FOMC meets Wednesday and is widely expected to keep low interest rates for the foreseeable future.

GLD 120.39 -2.44
SLV 18.33 -0.42
PTM 18.88 -0.06

XLE 55.49 -0.12
XLF 14.81 -0.02

VXX 25.48 +0.41

BGZ 14.58 +0.16

20100621 1556

DOW 10,428.50 -22.14
NASDAQ 2,286.08 -23.720
SP500 1,111.90 -5.610

Pullback in indices and metals is likely done for today. No compelling reason to close short (BGZ) now. Would not be trying to buy this dip, as risk is to the down side.

BGZ 14.64 +0.22. Will hold overnight.

20100621 1103

DOW 10,539.90 +89.26
NASDAQ 2,322.34 +12.54
SP500 1,125.41 +7.90

Indices turned lower and moving half-way into the opening gap. Can indices regain strength and move higher, or were the opening gap up prices the high and indices will sell lower to be near unchanged by end of day.

BGZ 14.07 -0.35. Went long at 14.10.

20100621 1015

DOW 10,581.61 +130.97
NASDAQ 2,335.10 +25.30
SP500 1,130.02 +12.51

Indices can run higher, but I'm closing the double SP500 long to take profits.

SSO 38.88 +0.87. Sold at 38.83 for .83 gain.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

20100618 Weekend

Dow 10,450.64 +16.47
Nasdaq 2,309.80 +2.64
SP500 1,117.51 +1.47
10-YrBond 3.22% +0.0330

Gold made a record high.

GLD 122.83 +0.93
SLV 18.75 +0.42
PTM 18.94 +0.17

XLE 55.61 +0.35
XLF 14.83 +0.09

VXX 25.07 -0.45

EVOGF 0.86 +0.0369 (4.50%). Has based for a month, so may be ready to move with higher gold price.
NNVC 2.00 +0.07 (3.63%). Off recent lows with volume contracting.
SSO 38.01 +0.07

AGQ 66.79 +2.95 (4.61%). ProShares Ultra Silver. Watch how it tests May high of 72.71.
HL 5.89 0.33 (5.94%). Hecla Mining Co. 52 week range 2.26 - 7.47.
NEM 61.25 +1.57 (2.63%). 52 week high. Looks to test January 2006 high of 62.72. Volume is 1/3 of what it should be if it will go past that high.
PAAS 27.71 0.94 (3.51%). Pan American Silver Corp. 52 week range 16.64 - 28.41.
SWC 13.53 0.47 (3.60%). Stillwater Mining Co. 52 week range 4.45 - 18.48.

FNM 0.35 -0.079 (-18.41%). Propped up by federal government, and being delisted.
FRE 0.4003 -0.1097 (-21.51%). Propped up by federal government, and being delisted. Acting like a home insurance company by allowing grants to home owners with mortgages backed by FRE that have defective drywall. Freddie Mac Announces Forbearances For Borrowers With Single Family Homes Affected By Problem Drywall What about people with a failing dish washer, or a failed light bulb?


Several items from (last week) June 14 Barron's:

Says GDP is price adjusted:
A Grim Drop in Retail Sales
A gasoline-sales decline reported by the Census Bureau was driven by the steep drop in gas prices in May. But consumer spending for calculating real GDP growth is price-adjusted. So no such decline will be reported by the BEA in real GDP for the current quarter.


The Roundtable update had several members who mentioned the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Abby Joseph Cohen is so interested in staying on the good side of all companies that she has made a special phrase to describe the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico.

Handle With Care

ABBY JOSEPH COHEN
This has been a difficult period for many energy companies, given worries about global growth, and the special situation involving BP in the Gulf of Mexico.

MERYL WITMER
The evidence in the Gulf of Mexico points to BP making mistakes.

MARIO GABELLI
The BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico will be a catalyst for National Fuel Gas to figure out how to monetize its Seneca Resources operations.


MFC 6.30 +0.06. Manulife Financial Corporation. Mentioned as possible long in Roundtable article.

Friday, June 18, 2010

20100618 1309

DJIA 10,454.20 +20.03
NASDAQ 2,307.74 +0.58
SP500 1,117.31 +1.27

SSO 38.01 +0.07. Long at 38 for intraday scalp.

EVOGF 0.88 +0.0588 (7.17%). Nice percentage gain, following higher metal prices. This equity is thinly traded.

20100618 1104

DJIA 10,468.71 +34.54
NASDAQ 2,320.15 +12.99
SP500 1,119.73 +3.69

TNA 48.99 +0.97. Sold at average price of 49 for ~1.2 per share gain.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

20100617 PM

Dow 10,434.17 +24.71
Nasdaq 2,307.16 +1.23. Considerably lighter volume.
SP500 1,116.04 +1.43
30-yrBond 4.12% -0.78

Indices opened slightly higher, sold off, tried to test unchanged in afternoon, sold off again, then spurted higher into the close.
Europe is planning a banking stress test and planning to publish the results in late July.
Tomorrow is quadruple witching expiry.

Gold higher overnight and tested 1250 this morning. Next level is 1272. Some analysts say with the lighter volume on exchange traded gold, that gold is putting in a triple top.

GLD 121.90 +1.57
SLV 18.33 +0.25
PTM 18.77 +0.12

XLE 55.52 -0.06
XLF 14.78 -0.02

VXX 25.52 -0.75

TNA 48.02 +0.09. Look to close long position tomorrow.

VG 2.68 +0.30 (12.61%)

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

20100616 PM

Dow 10,409.46 +4.69
Nasdaq 2,305.93 +0.05
SP500 1,114.61 -0.62
30-yrBond 4.20% -0.30

GLD 120.33 -0.66
SLV 18.09 -0.10
PTM 18.65 -0.10

XLE 55.58 -0.04
XLF 14.80 +0.01

VXX 26.27 -0.43

TNA 47.93 -0.45. Went to full long position at end of day at 47.99 for swing trade.

Quasi-governmental firms that backstop most of the mortgages will be delisted.
FNM 0.563 -0.3619 (-39.15%).
FRE 0.753 -0.467 (-38.28%).

GXDX 17.19 -5.690 (-24.87%). GENOPTIX INC. Physician practice company issued downside guidance.

20100616 0938

DOW 10,354.29 -50.48
NASDAQ 2,296.47 -9.41
SP500 1,110.29 -4.94

Still looking for moderately higher prices, on light volume, into Friday.

TNA 47.51 -0.87. Started small long at 47.55.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

20100615 PM

Dow 10,404.77 +213.88
Nasdaq 2,305.88 +61.92
SP500 1,115.23 +25.60
30-yrBond 4.23% +0.29

GLD 120.99 +1.39
SLV 18.19 +0.33
PTM 18.75 +0.17

XLE 55.62 +1.58
XLF 14.79 +0.34

VXX 26.70 1.73 -6.09%

BBY 38.56 -2.49 (6.07%). Big volume.
CREE 69.83 +3.58 (5.40%)
VG 2.47 +0.36 (17.06%). 52 week range 0.31 - 2.63. Has built long base. Can go higher then pull back to 2.11.

Monday, June 14, 2010

20100614 PM

Dow 10,190.89 -20.18
Nasdaq 2,243.96 +0.36
SP500 1,089.63 -1.97
30-yrBond 4.20% +0.66

Indices opened higher and sold off during the afternoon to close slightly lower. Still looking for higher prices this week on lighter volume - maybe SP500 to 1150.
After initially moving lower, dollar reversed to close down just a few pennies.

GLD 119.60 -0.41
SLV 17.86 +0.01
PTM 18.58 +0.29

XLE 54.04 -0.28
XLF 14.45 -0.06

VXX 28.43 -0.42

BGZ 15.53 +0.05. Sell order at 15.32 was hit for .35 intraday gain.
DZZ 11.08 +0.08.

SGG 44.97 +1.08. iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN. Possible short at 48.
LVS 25.99 +0.27. 52 week high.

20100614 1249

DOW 10,293.98 +82.91
NASDAQ 2,271.33 +27.73
SP500 1,101.38 +9.78

For scalp traders, indices now look to consolidate or pull back for a few hours.

BGZ 15.05 -0.43. Started half position at 14.97 for intraday scalp trade. Day range 14.84 - 15.27. Previous close 15.48.

20100614 1009

Dow 10,255.96 +44.89
Nasdaq 2,263.58 +19.98
SP500 1,097.53 +5.93
10-YrBond 3.29% +0.75

Dollar and gold down. Silver, platinum, oil higher.
Look for moderate upside bias to the indices this week.

DZZ 11.07 +0.0699. Sold at 11.08 for .21 per share gain. Closing this position as there may be better opportunities elsewhere. Hesitant to be short gold for too long.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

20100611 Weekend

Dow 10,211.07 +38.54
Nasdaq2,243.60 +24.89
SP500 1,091.60 +4.76
30-yrBond 4.14% -1.06

Indices slightly higher. Indices look to be slightly higher next week.
Gold hit all time high this week.
Next Friday is triple witching option expiration.

GLD 120.01 +1.04
SLV 17.85 -0.01
PTM 18.29 +0.01

XLE 54.32 +0.33
XLF 14.51 +0.04

VXX 28.85 -0.72

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

20100608 PM, Eurasian Minerals

Dow 9,939.98 +123.49
Nasdaq 2,170.57 -3.33
SP500 1,062.00 +11.53
10-YrBond 3.17% -0.16

GLD 121.00 -0.49
SLV 17.89 +0.08
PTM 18.14 +0.19

XLE 51.95 +0.85
XLF 14.16 +0.29

VXX 31.14 -1.13

DZZ 10.84 +0.09

NGD 6.60 +0.31. 52 week high.

EMX 2.25 +.19. Eurasian Minerals on the Toronto venture exchange.
Eurasian Minerals Inc. is pleased to announce it has completed the first tranche of a C$5.28 million private placement financing by issuing 2 million shares at C$2.20 per share to Newmont Mining Corporation of Canada Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM), for aggregate proceeds of C$4.4 million.

20100608 1512

DOW 9,860.93 +44.44
NASDAQ 2,153.99 -19.910
SP500 1,052.58 +2.11

Indices and commodities and dollar mixed.

Gold is not showing enough volume to push higher. At a minimum it needs more time to consolidate, and it could go lower from here.

DZZ 10.86 +0.1099. Deutsche Bank AG DB Gold Double Short ETN. Bought 1/2 position at 10.87.

Monday, June 07, 2010

20100607 PM

Dow 9,816.49 -115.48
Nasdaq 2,173.90 -45.27
SP500 1,050.47 -14.41
10-YrBond 3.18% -0.11

Indices lower. Dollar nearly unchanged. Precious metals higher, and silver dramatically (%) higher.

GLD 121.49 +2.30
SLV 17.81 +0.76
PTM 17.95 -0.03
XLE 51.10 -0.45
XLF 13.87 -0.28
VXX 32.27 +0.98

ICE 116.97 -0.93. Looks to go lower.
RIMM 56.56 -3.12 (5.23%). Looks to go lower.

TRE 4.63 +0.18 (4.04%)

Sunday, June 06, 2010

20100604 Weekend

Dow 9,931.97 -323.31 (3.15%)
Nasdaq 2,219.17 -83.86 (3.64%)
SP500 1,064.88 -37.95 (3.44%)
30-yrBond 4.12% -1.69

Jobs report was poor. Indices gapped down, stabilized for an hour, then selling resumed and closed at the lows. The selling was with volume.
Dollar was up strongly into 88s. Euro reached a four year low.
Gold was down in the morning and closed higher. Gold buyers continue to step in when their is price weakness. Considering how other commodities are lower and the dollar is higher, gold is holding up relatively well. Gold is marking time to potentially spike higher on further shocks to global economics (financial, European, military). A close above 1224 should scare any remaining retail shorts.
Other precious metals and oil were down. Silver was down 1.06 from last Friday.

GLD 119.19 +1.23
SLV 17.05 -0.59
PTM 17.98 -0.37

XLE 51.55 -1.88
XLF 14.15 -0.59

VXX 31.29 +2.89 (10.18%)

SPXU 36.53 +3.31 (9.96%)

Ideas for watch lists:
HL 5.02 -0.29 (5.46%). Mines several metals, though mainly silver. Aggressive miner play.
PAAS 24.07 -1.37 (5.39%). 2/3 silver production, with 1/3 of gold production. Higher risk long for move higher in next couple weeks.
SWC 11.49 -1.33 (10.37). Consider this as aggressive play on miners.

ECPG 9.19 -1.30 (6.34%). Encore Capital Group. Debt collection.

Friday, June 04, 2010

20100604 1110

DOW 10,062.49 -192.790
NASDAQ 2,267.49 -35.540
SP500 1,083.83 -19.000

Indices gapped down on weak jobs report. Some technicians are watching Dow 10,100 level.
Metals and oil down.
Dollar higher and may test 88 today.

SPXU 34.86 +1.64. Sold at 34.77 for ~.80 per share gain overnight. Took the gain (and turning off computers for the day).

Thursday, June 03, 2010

20100603 1332

DOW 10,200.64 -48.900
NASDAQ 2,283.38 +2.31
SP500 1,095.02 -3.360

Indices were higher with lighter volume and failed. Commodities (metals, oil) continue lower. Dollar higher.

Canada's central bank raised interest rates from .25% to .5%.

Jobs report Friday. May be opportunity to get short if there is a relatively positive top-line jobs number.

SPXU 33.93 +0.410. PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P500. Went long at average price of ~33.96.

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

20100601 PM

Dow 10,024.02 -112.61
Nasdaq 2,222.33 -34.71
SP500 1,070.71 -18.70. Watch how 1040 is tested - heavy volume or light volume.
30-yrBond 4.20% -0.12

GLD 119.91 +1.03
SLV 18.02 -0.01
PTM 18.40 +0.08

XLE 50.53 -2.52
XLF 14.37 -0.31

VXX 30.19 +1.61

BP 36.52 -6.43 (14.97%). 52 week low. Under October lows with huge volume and going lower. Other oil produces also lower.