20071231 LLNW

LLNW 6.76 -.56. Shorted intraday. Level3 is suing on patent infringement. This was an IPO in 2007 that will close at yearly lows, so everyone who owns this has lost money. August 16 low was 6.72. When market volume returns, look for this to go lower on 2+ million shares/day.

20071228 PM

Dow 13,365.87 +6.26 +0.05%
Nasdaq 2,674.46 -2.33 -0.09%
S&P 500 1,478.49 +2.12 +0.14%

SOLF 34.02 +.29.

USO 75.89 -.36.
XLE 80.37 +.08.

20071224 CVI XLE DNDN

CVI 25.58 +.85. Stay long.
XLE 79.35 +.05. Go long.
DNDN 6.63 +.36. Speculative long at this price.

20071219 PM

Dow 13207.27 -25.20
Nasdaq 2601.01 +4.98
S&P 500 1453.00 -1.98

FXP 79.4 -1.2.
RIMM 102.13 -1.44. Earnings tomorrow after close. Possible short.
JOYG 59.58 +3.98. Had earnings. Maybe short at 60s.

20071218 PM

Dow 13,232.47 +65.27 +0.50%
Nasdaq 2,596.03 +21.57 +0.84%
S&P500 1,454.98 +9.08 +0.63%

FXP 81.27 -7.72. Look to buy lower in a week or so.
NG 6.08 -.95. Going at least 10% lower.

20071214 PM

DJIA 13,339.85 -178.11
NASDAQ 2,635.74 -32.75
S&P 500 1,467.95 -20.46

Miners selling off.
SWC 9.1 -.96 on heavy volume.
VGZ 4.65 -.15.
NG 7.98 -.19. Multi-year low.
GDX 44.31 -.74. 52 week low was 32.76 in August. Look to short next week.

Oil
CVI 23.2 +1.12. Going for 24.87 from when it started trading in October 2007. Stay long.
CMZ 9.12 up 1.12 on heavy volume and news.
COP 83.29 -1.35. Gave up yesterday's gains. Look to short.

UNTD 12.07 +.82. Gapped up and held the gains.
FXP 79.79 +4.36. ProShrs Trst UltraShrt FTSE 25 ProShrs. Will test 80 then maybe 88.
HLIT 9.74 -.12. Going to 8.37. Look to short a pop.
UA 45.25 -2.25. 41.37 is 52 week low.
HD 26.63 -1.01. Closed at 52 week low. Look to short a pop.
CME 699.05 -1.95. Making agreements with foreign exchanges, and will benefit from more trading/volatility. August 16 low 505.89.
WM 15.15 -.44. 52 week low is 14.8 from yesterday. Supposedly pays 14.8% dividend. Can go a lot lower.

20071214 Intraday Notes: WLGC UNTD CC CVR GIGM ESLR CSCO

WLGC 1.85 +.40 as of 9:37AM. Has traded 1/3 of average daily volume. Don't see any news yet.
UNTD 11.78 +.53, 506,905 as of 9:56AM.
CC 6.94 -.47, 1,312,980, as of 10:04.
CVR 23.19 +1.11, 49,300, as of 10:16. 52 week high is 24.87.
GIGM 19.36 +1.14, 746,032, as of 12:30PM. Steady climb, though volume is not confirming the move.
ESLR 16.63 +1.52, 16,028,689 as of 12:37. Huge volume on news. Looks like longs are selling their gains. Short here with stop around 17.
CSCO 29.03 -0.03, 25,062,147 as of 12:38. Pushing lows of day 28.99. Trailing stop on this short.

DJIA 13,413.18 -104.78
NASDAQ 2,651.57 -16.92
S&P 500 1,477.04 -11.37

20071213 PM

Dow 13,517.96 +44.06
Look to short gold miners Friday morning.

JBLU 7.15. Lufthansa took $300M equity stake. Stock is at all-time low, and this could put a floor on the price.
FXP 75.42 up ~9%. Expect some pullback Friday, and look to add more long in next few days.
SMN 40.84. ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES SMN:AMEX. Hasn't been performing for longs in this short play.

Friday morning news: Consumer prices up significantly.

20071213 TGT CSCO HRB

TGT 51.79 -1.39. Volume is showing this downtrend may fail to test the November 20 lows.
CSCO 28.99 +.19. Reached high of 29.54 in the morning.
HRB 18.55 -.87. While I don't want to short at the lows, HRB is saying they won't be in regulatory compliance. This would force asset sales at depressed prices.
H&R Block says may need more financing
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Top U.S. tax preparer H&R Block Inc (HRB.N) said on Thursday its borrowing capacity may not be sufficient to meet its financing requirements and it may have to issue additional debt or equity.

The company, whose shares were down 3.5 percent, said in a regulatory filing that it had been "significantly and negatively impacted" by the subprime mortgage meltdown.

It said it does not expect to be in compliance with a plan for a minimum capital ratio that it set with the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) in July. It had previously said it expected to hit the target by April 30, 2008.

20071212 PM

Dow 13,473.90 +41.13
Nasdaq 2,671.14 +18.79
S&P 500 1,486.59 +8.94

In the morning if AAPL or CSCO are up, short them.

20071127 PM

DJIA 12,958.44 215.00. Bounce on lighter volume.
NASDAQ 2,580.80 39.82. Bounce on lighter volume.
S&P 500 1,428.23 21.01. Bounce on lighter volume.

Shippers. Bouncing, let them go higher and get ready to short.
EXM 41.72 +4.04. Short around 51.
DRYS 75.69 +6.02.

Retail.
TGT 57 +1.78.
WMT 45.83 +.8.

Fuel Cell

These are following market weakness. Research to buy next year.

Full list, with exchanges, at Fuel Cell Today.

Acta ACTA
Ceramic Fuel Cells CFU
CERES Power Ltd CWR
CMR Fuel Cells CMR
ITM Power ITM
Johnson Matthey JMAT
Protonex Technology Corporation PTX
Rolls-Royce Fuel Cell Systems RR
Shell Hydrogen BV RDSA
UTC Power UTC
Voller Energy VLR

NASDAQ
Distributed Energy Systems Corp DESC
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc ENER
Hoku Scientific HOKU
Hydrogenics Corp. HYGS
Manhattan Scientifics MHTX
Medis Technologies MDTL
Millennium Cell Inc MCEL
MTI Micro Fuel Cells MKTY
Plug Power PLUG
Quantum Technologies QTWW
Teledyne Energy Systems Inc TDY
NYSEBallard Power Systems Inc BLDP
TSXAstris Energi Inc. ASRNF
Dynetek Industries Ltd DNK
Palcan Fuel Cell Company Ltd PC
QuestAir Technologies QAR

OTHER
Umicore Autocat USA, Inc. UMICORE

20071126 PM

DJIA 12,743.44 -237.44
NASDAQ 2,540.98 -55.62
S&P 500 1,407.22 -33.48. Look at August 16. Going to 1370 right now. If 1370 is hit tomorrow, look to close shorts and regroup.

CC 5.99 -.52 on heavy volume. Going to test Friday's low of 5.51.
TGT 55.22 -1.95.
VZ 41.23 -1.41. Telecom keeps trending lower. August 16 high was 40.58.
EMC 17.37 -1.08. Closed below August 16 low of 17.39. Watch how 17 holds, then look for 16.
XLE 71.49 -2.56. Oils are breaking down.
IVN 11.2 -.6. Can go to 8.5.

20071126 Short CC

DJIA 13,010.63 +29.75
NASDAQ 2,605.95 +9.35
S&P 500 1,441.59 +0.89

CC 6.15 -.36. Up move last Friday. Touched 7.04 on the open and is heading lower.
TGT 55.97 -1.20. Similar action to CC. Potential intraday short with tight stop.

20071123 PM, IPOs

DJIA 12,980.88 181.84
NASDAQ 2,596.60 34.45
S&P 500 1,440.70 23.93

Light volume on day after Thanksgiving.

SFSF 12.68 -.07. IPO'd this week. There is talk this company is a buyout candidate. "Web-based performance management software"
INET 8. Offering size and price were reduced. Short when possible.

GMO 10.4 +.5. 52 week high. Any shorts are in pain. Miner.

20071120 PM

DJIA 13,010.14 51.70
NASDAQ 2,596.81 3.43
S&P 500 1,439.70 6.43 Will get to 1370 from August 16.
Platinum 1467.
Gold 803.
Silver 14.75.
Oil 98.4. Has a couple more points of upside.

CREE 21.18 -.67.
AMD 11.28 -.79 with good volume. August 16 low was 11.27.
GME 51.01 -1.98 with big volume.

FNM 28.25 -9.33. Will keep going lower over the next months.
CFC 10.28 -.29 with huge volume. August 16 low was 15.

COP 79.29 +2.16. Oil stocks bounced. Watch to short in a few days.
XLE 7.75 +2.3. Look to short at 75.
DUG 41.98 -2.52. 2X inverse.

GLD 79.47 +2.23. Up with less volume than the last few big down days. Short tomorrow around 80.5 if the volume is light. Thanksgiving week so the volume should be light and the price is drifting higher.
GG 32.95 +2.32 on slightly less volume than the last few big down days. Maybe short around 44.

20071116 PM

DJIA 13,176.79 +66.74
NASDAQ 2,637.24 +18.73
S&P 500 1,458.74 +7.59
Closed out some shorts as next week equities may go higher on lighter volume due to Thanksgiving.

Based on the latest financial reports of the five biggest Wall Street firms, the value of their level three asset holdings relative to firm equity is the following:
-Morgan Stanley $88.2 billion, 250% of equity
-Lehman Brothers $34.7 billion, 160% of equity
-Bear Stearns $20.2 billion, 155% of equity
-Goldman Sachs $51 billion, 130% of equity
-Merrill Lynch $27.2 billion, 70% of equity.

20071115 PM

DJIA 13,110.05 -120.96
NASDAQ 2,618.51 -25.81
S&P 500 1,451.15 -19.43

SNDK 37.27 -.77. All longs who bought in the last seven months are underwater, some from the 50s.
AERO 5.57 -.23. 52 week low is 5.52. Short before it gets below 5 to not miss your chance. Likes to spike in the morning to catch stop orders. Low turnover.
CC 6.28 -2. Intraday 52 week low of 6.25. All longs in the past year are underwater.

SLV 143.45 -5.22. Commodities are correcting, so wait about a month to possibly buy, targeting 180s.
POT 109.81 -7.17. 52 week range 126 - 44. Look to short if this can get to 115 - 118. For longer term shorts or puts (3 - 6 months) anywhere around here is OK.
SMN 48.6 +2.53. ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES August 16 2007 had volume at high of 72.18.

2007115 Afternoon Sell Off

DJIA 13,108.50 -122.51
NASDAQ 2,608.17 -36.15
S&P 500 1,449.33 -21.25

CC 6.27 -.21. 52 week low.
VMW 82.94 -4.23. As long as VMW keeps going down, there is little risk in shorting EMC.
EMC 19.31 -.26. Much less volatile than VMW.
CREE 22.88 -1.06. Putting in a bit of a counter-trend rally now, while other techs continue to sell down. Long from 22.7 and will close before end of trading day.

20071114 PM

DJIA 13,231.01 -76.08
NASDAQ 2,644.32 -29.33
S&P 500 1,470.58 -10.47
Markets sold off in the last 1/2 hour.
My overall bias is to be short.

VMW 87.17 -3.51.
EMC 19.57 -.15.
AEO 22.81 -.37. Consider short for a potential 50%.

20071113 PM

DJIA 13,307.09 319.54
NASDAQ 2,673.65 89.52
S&P 500 1,481.05 41.87
Counter trend bounce, with volume high but lighter than what it needed to be to sustain upside in the coming weeks.

GIGM 21.10 +4.67. Gapped up on open at 17.09, then trended very nice the rest of the day to finish near the high of day. Nice trending day to jump on for several hours of gains.
ETRD 5 +1.45. Nice reversal from yesterday.

20071109 PM

DJIA 13,042.74 -223.55
NASDAQ 2,627.94 -68.06
S&P 500 1,453.70 -21.07

DUG 41.4 +1.92. ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES. Big volume increase the past week. Could be setting up topside run to 50s.
NXY 32.33 -.67. Went short today. Oil patch. Watch how it acts at 31.11. August 16 2007 low is 25.25.

NOVL 6.82 -.19. If this doesn't hold, look for 6.27.
GNCMA 9.01 +1.02 on good volume. Apparently no news. Up last two days.
SRS 105 +1.49. Closed this long this morning. Will look for re-entry.
PPG 69.27 -3.29. Gapped down on the open and stayed down. August 16 2007 low is 67.81.
VOLV 18.14 -.98. If market continues down, this has room to fall.
GME 52.78 -3.02. August 16 2007 low is 37.4.


Article on content delivery network providers, including akamai and limelight. Declining margins.

20071108 PM

DJIA 13,266.29 -33.73 Down on big volume.
NASDAQ 2,696.00 -52.76 Down on big volume. Cut intrady point loss in half.
S&P 500 1,474.75 -0.87 Down on big volume.
Markets came back in last hour.
Gold 837. All time high.

AAPL RIMM GOOG ORCL CSCO down, which affected the index.
RMX 1.71 -.06. Buy at 1.56 in Toronto.
PTR 200.25 -12.55. Wait to short.
AIRM 55.32 +2.38. Good earnings.

20071107 PM

DJIA 13,300.02 -360.92
NASDAQ 2,748.76 -76.42
S&P 500 1,475.62 -44.65 Going to August lows around 1400.
Dollar all time low.
Silver, gold, platinum, and oil down slightly.

Commodity Storage - JAVA NTAP

Sun will counter-sue Network Appliance. I expect NTAP will lose their suit, and continue to lose business due to ZFS comoditizing high end storage.

... a comprehensive reciprocal suit. As a part of this suit, we are requesting a permanent injunction to remove all of their filer products from the marketplace, and are examining the original NFS license - on which Network Appliance was started.
...

JAVA 5.16 -.55 on volume. Earnings announcement had light revenue.
NTAP 29.98 +.27 on light volume. Short candidate back to 24 in August 2007.

20071106 PM

DJIA 13,660.94 +117.54
NASDAQ 2,825.18 +30.00
S&P 500 1,520.27 +18.10
Gold and silver up.
Dollar all time low.

SLV 153.75 +7.57. Running. Look to buy tomorrow.
CPST 1.28 +.05 on volume. Buy a retracement.
GRS 11.46 +1.18. Going to 14 if it has volume.
CHKE 34.22 -.72 with volume. Going lower.
MSA 46.84 +1.43. Going to 50 then higher to 55 and 60. Buy here.
FRO 43.35 +.87. 11.65% dividend. Keep an eye on this for a lower price to buy.

20071103 Before Open

DJIA 13,543.40
NASDAQ 2,795.18
S&P 500 1,502.17

Silver and gold keep running.

RGLD 29.41 on high volume. Down 3.31 yesterday on announcement of preferred shares being offered. Watch how it holds at 28.
BMD 1.23. 52 week low.
C 35.9. Citi cuts profit as CEO quits
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N) reduced its third-quarter earnings a day after embattled Chairman and Chief Executive Charles "Chuck" Prince quit, as the U.S. bank's losses on subprime mortgages and other risky securities climbed.
ADVERTISEMENT

The latest bad news sent Citigroup shares down 3 percent to $36.58 in pre-market trade.

Citi on Monday said it reduced its earnings to 44 cents a share from the 47 cents reported on October 15. The New York commercial and investment banking giant said the reduction reflects the lower value of $43 billion in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)...

GIGM 23.87. Looking to go long for day.
CROX 41.45.

20071101 PM

DJIA 13,567.87 -362.14
NASDAQ 2,794.83 -64.29
S&P 500 1,508.44 -40.94 This week can go down another 20 points. Longer term going down to 1370 (from August).

CROX 47.74 -27.01 with huge volume.
XOM 88.5 -3.49 with good volume. They claim they aren't making money with oil at record highs.
GNCMA 9 -2.73 with huge volume.
LVS 125.3 -7.78. Earnings, going much lower after hours.
NGD 7.15 +.58. Mining permitting completed. May 29, 2006 high was 10.45.

20071101 AM Relative Strength

DJIA 13,724.02 -205.99
NASDAQ 2,823.87 -35.25
S&P 500 1,526.79 -22.59

BMD 1.48 +.01. Low priced miner. Strong.
SRS 92.24 +4.54.

20071031 PM

DJIA 13,930.01 +137.54
NASDAQ 2,859.12 +42.41
S&P 500 1,549.38 +18.36
Gold 798.
Silver 14.55.
Dollar at all time low.
Oil 94.88. All time high.
Federal Reserve reduced rate .25.

BMD 1.47 +.11. Today it rejected the low, so bought today at 1.4. Look for some resistance at 2.
ANO 5.37 +.04. Bought today at 5.33.
CSCO 33.06 +.45. Going for 33.6 from October 11, then watch volume.
DRYS 117.86 +.9.86. Got back some of decline from yesterday on good volume.
PMU 1.36 +.02. Going for 1.85 from December 2005.
GS 247.92 +7.59. Multi-year highs. Nothing to stop this financial for another fifty points.
GRS 10.33 +.57. Decent price spread with good volume. Try to buy tomorrow.
MR 39.76 +.95. Review after it closes above 40.

Rumors of Google sourcing phone from e28. e28 is owned by Inventec.
http://www.e28.com/press/press.htm
http://www.inventec.com/english/service_h01.htm
http://emops.tse.com.tw/emops_all.htm Use code 2356.
http://mis.tse.com.tw/Best5_new.html?StkNo=2356
Inventec Appliances Corp IVAPF:OTC. Price zero.
Research:
http://www.marketresearch.com/land/product.asp?productid=1401399&progid=3602
Inventec Appliances Corp.: 2006 Contract Manufacturing Profile
THT Research/SNG Networks, Inc. - 1/1/2007
Inventec Appliances Corp. (Taiwan, Republic of China) is a major provider of 3G Handset, 3G Handset: Own Brand, Camera phones, and other products. THT's reports include essential information for OEMs, importers, buyers and distributors. Our company profile reports have three primary focuses: general company information, company contract manufacturing activites, and company financial performance. General company information includes company contact information, a list of product lines, company brands and brands ranking. In addition, each company profile includes analyst notes on the general state of company performance and future plans. In terms of contract manufacturing activities, THT's reports detail company customer relationships ...

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TPE:3367
Inventec Appliances Corp. is specialized in the manufacture, research, development and sale of communications and digital products and components, as well as the provision of technical and after-sales services for these products...
http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=701787&morenews=10&rating=1

20071030 PM

DJIA 13,792.47 -77.79
NASDAQ 2,816.71 -0.73
S&P 500 1,531.02 -9.96

DRYS 108 -22.97 with price and volume. Other dry shippers went down at the same time.
FDG 36.47 -5.78.

20071029 PM

DJIA 13,870.26 +63.56
NASDAQ 2,817.44 +13.25
S&P 500 1,540.98 +5.70

Good trading volatilty in WX and VMW. VMW is pulling EMC up.
EMC 25.37 +.84. Can get to 27.
GAI 4.96 +.66. Price spread. Closed at high of day. Bought today at 4.7 for swing trade.
YHOO 31.79 -1.84. Giving back the pop last week on alibaba sale.
JNPR 35.96 +2.01. Strong climb all day. The last few months has been repelled near 37.5.
CSUN 11.51 +2.38. Running back to 14.78.
EDU 90.68 +5.58.
FEED 9.46 -34. Waiting for upside sign of strength, then it can retest 16.36.
CMG 134.41 +.46. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Look for earnings.
SNDA 39.89 +.53. Pushing all time highs.
MR 40 +1.39. Good volume. Earnings this week.

20071029 AM

DJIA
13,849.21 +42.51
NASDAQ
2,817.48 +13.29
S&P 500
1,540.17 +4.89

WX opened up 2. Fading intra-day from 41.56. Tight trailing stop.

20071026 PM

DJIA 13,806.70 +134.78 Going through 13900.
NASDAQ 2,804.19 +53.33 Gapped up and stayed up.
S&P 500 1,535.28 +20.88. Going through 1540.
Gold 789. All time high. Dollar all time low. Going through 800.
Silver 14.3.
Copper 3.54.
Platinum 1458. All time high.
Oil 91.8. Touched 92.22. Going for 100 round number.

CFC 17.3 +4.23. Good volume. Positive news about financially cleaning house at Countrywide Financial Corp. Consider if this will show continued strength for a few days if the Federal Reserve eases. Can bounce to 20, and consider a short there. Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, and expectations are .25 - .5 rate cut.
VGZ 6.41 +.61. Broke up with price and volume. Going to 7.5. Royalty company, so it moves quickly with gold price.
XOMA 3.93 +.19. Buy, looking for 10% to 4.39.
Buy watch list: TGB AEM BMD

20071009 PM

DJIA 14,164.53 120.80
NASDAQ 2,803.91 16.54
S&P 500 1,565.15 12.57

CEE 60.02 +1.02.
GME 58.71 +2.06. Can squeeze higher.
MOS 55.61 +4.23. Can squeeze higher.
SSRX 20 +.9. Light volume. Price ran up at end of day.
STV 51.08 +11.59. Sold most shares today. No options and can't yet short, so a downturn can be vicious.
FXI 191.87 +4.68.
AMSWA 9.21 +.15. Article says that it is below the value of the company in which it has majority ownership.

Clean air settlement to cost AEP over $4.6 bln I wonder which companies make/install the scrubbers.

20071008 PM

DJIA 14,043.73 -22.28
NASDAQ 2,787.37 +7.05
S&P 500 1,552.58 -5.01

Bond market was closed.
Gold lower. Truckers a lot lower. Oil drillers lower.

CEE 59 +.85. Closed at 52 week high.
GAI 4.1 -.08 with light volume.
STV 39.39 +11.49. New IPO Friday. Holding long tonight.

20071008 Afternoon

DJIA 14,031.22 -34.79
NASDAQ 2,781.55 +1.23
S&P 500 1,551.48 -6.11

GME 56.66 -.06. Relative weakness for this high-flyer.
CEE 58.63 +.48. Positive after early weakness.
STV 37.31 +9.31. Went public Friday. May hold this long overnight. China HD TV play.

20071006 PM

DJIA 14,066.01 +91.70
NASDAQ 2,780.32 +46.75
S&P 500 1,557.59 +14.75

SKF 72.55 -1.3. Finally stopped out of what was intended to be a longer term hold. Banks/financials periodically release bad news while the stock prices go up. Look at this again at 70 or 68.
AERO 7.7 -.43. Higher volume (38K shares). Closed below 50 day moving average.
COMV 31.46 +.02. "clean energy solutions through demand response and energy efficiency". Like the sector, but try to short at 35.
TTPY 22.28 -.45. Volume is all on the downside. Going to 21.89 then 20. Look to short.
CKSW 5.46 +.23 on good volume and price. Big down day July 23.
ANSS 36.87 +.55. Multi-year high.

20071004 PM

DJIA 13,974.31 6.26
NASDAQ 2,733.57 4.14
S&P 500 1,542.84 3.25

Quiet day in front of job numbers tomorrow. The numbers may not be as eventful as some anticipate.

SLAB 42.6 -.25. Down with volume, though rejected day's low price. Watch to short.
CC 8.76 +.31. Maybe all of the bad news is out. The price may run into Christmas.

20071003 PM

DJIA 13,968.05 -79.26
NASDAQ 2,729.43 -17.68
S&P 500 1,539.59 -7.04

Employment numbers to be released Friday.

GAI 4.29 +.99.
ANV 5.92 +.42. Long hold for the longer term. "Allied Nevada Gold Corp. is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration and advancement of gold exploration and development projects in Nevada." 6.15 all time high.
UHCP 1.40 +.49 with volume. Into the week of January 22 2007, and looks like it can have enough volume on the weekly.
HMY 10.46 -.61. 3000 miners trapped, with extractions in progress. Very end of day the price came back up.
DE 145.01 -3.24. Closed near low of day with volume. Breaking through 9 day EMA. Short any strength tomorrow. Good support at 120.
EFUT 31.6 +12.6. Gapped up and closed higher. Huge price spread and huge volume. Resistance at 34 and 35.
XRA 3.72 +.24 with good volume. Relative strength with other miners down.
GNCMA 11.91 -.24. May test 11.5.
SKF 74.3 +.1. Look to long in the morning.
RIO 32.3 -3.15 with volume. Can retrace to 26. October 5-7 they renegotiate contracts.
PBR 74.74 -2.87 with volume. Going to 71 the 66.

20071003 11:42

10/3/2007 11:42 AM ET

DJIA 14,029.43 -17.88
NASDAQ 2,745.65 -1.46
S&P 500 1,544.44 -2.19

AKAM 31.87 +.9.
GAI 4.01 +.71.
BIDU 319.43 -1.15. Sold this long to free up cash for WX long.
WX 35.26 +1.26. China biopharma on the move.
SRS 83.18 +.28. Starting to act like a long.
DRYS 98.84 +.13. Pushing positive. Trailing stop in place, so may close the long today.
HOG 49.27 +2.57. Gapped up and continues to climb. Has turned around the past few days. Got long this morning. Trailing stop to follow the uptrend today.
GME 56.8 -.8. Gapped down. Was good to close the near-month options yesterday.

20071002 PM

DJIA 14,047.31 -40.24
NASDAQ 2,747.11 +6.12
S&P 500 1,546.63 -0.41

Silver and gold selling off, leading commodities down.

GAI 3.3 +.45 with good volume.
BIDU 320.58 +35.77 with good volume. Gapped up and kept going. Intraday 52 week high. Shorts are in trouble. Closed near high, so am holding overnight looking for strength in the morning.
DRYS 98.71 +2.42. Intraday 52 week high.
XRA 3.48 +.29. Gold miner showed relative strength.
GFI 17.77 -.58. Gapped down and then went sideways. Looking to buy soon for run to 26.95.
GME 57.6 +1.45. Closed out long calls today. (GMEJL October 20)
ICO 4.78 +.26. Watch August 09 volume.
OVTI 24.04 +.9 with good volume. 52 week high. While short interest has been declining to about 12 million shares, there is more short covering to occur.
AKAM 30.97 +2.22 with price spread and volume. Down trend is broken. Gap at 39 - 45. Look to buy next pull back.

20070927 PM

DJIA 13,912.94 +34.79
NASDAQ 2,709.59 +10.56
S&P 500 1,531.38 +5.96

UA 58.8 -1.3. Down past two days with volume. Two days ago gapped down. Not a long. Look to short next week.

TSS 28.42 +.38. Closed at 50 day ema. 1% dividend. Potentially safeish long. Credit card transaction processor.
SNV 28.13 +.03. 2.9% dividend. Owns much of TSS.

Watch list longs:
WMB 34.28. Gas pipeline builder/operator. Can test 36.
NMX 132.48. Commodities exchange.

20070925 PM

DJIA 13,778.65 19.59
NASDAQ 2,683.45 15.50
S&P 500 1,517.21 -0.52

SRS 91.19 +3.15. Real estate.
SPG 98.3 -3.63 on average volume. Real estate.
SKF 88.3 +.74.
GAI 2.85 +0.0 on big volume. Day range 2.84 - 3.35.
GME 57.03 +.86. Continues to set multi-year highs. Am keeping trailing stop in place.
NGAS 6.89 -.1. If commodities lead a market retreat, keep an eye on this natural gas.

Dry shippers:
DSX 28.57 +1.13. Huge volume yesterday with price up and average price range. Watch if volume stalls in 29s.
DRYS 87.6 +2.15. 52 week high. Good volume.

Volatile action for intra-day action junkies. (I'm too nervous to hold either of these overnight.)
CTDC 7.4 +1.02. Volume and volatility came in this month. Day range 6.14 - 7.47.
BIDU 299.93 -3.48. Day range 295.55 - 304.40. Intra-day 52 week high. Second down day in 17 sessions. Can easily retrace to 250 from September 17.

20070920 PM

DJIA 13,766.70 -48.86
NASDAQ 2,654.29 -12.19 Made tri-start doji. The trend culminates with the Tri Star, identifying that there is little strength left, and signaling a return of the bears.
S&P 500 1,518.75 -10.28
Silver up, gold up, commodities up. Dollar down.

EFUT 18.20 +6.06. Huge volume. 52 week high 49.9 and there is even more volume there. "... provider of integrated software and professional services for manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, logistics companies and retailers in China's supply chain front market."
ATV 16.97 +2.84. Decent volume with price spread. Closed above 50 day moving average. There was volume at highs in late May 2007. "... marketing company in China ..."
COGT 15.11 +.1. May be going for 15.45 then 15.73.
ALVR 13.89 +.29. Going to 14.23 then will have resistance at 16 then 17.

20070920 2:48PM

DJIA 13,758.82 -56.74
NASDAQ 2,650.42 -16.06
S&P 500 1,518.76 -10.27

HOG 48.16 -.43. Strong open, and heading lower. Fundamentally idling plants for a week due to sales slow down. Went short at 48.44.


CREE 33.82 +1.81. Long today at 33.97, looking for another pop tomorrow from shorts covering.
SKF 78.82 +2.62. Rebound off low from Wednesday. Need more volume going higher. Trying to buy this afternoon at 78.55.

20070920 AM

DJIA 13,805.48 -10.08
NASDAQ 2,664.57 -1.91
S&P 500 1,526.68 -2.35

CC 8.72 -1.85. Closed short. Bad earnings.
AMZN 90 +.99. Short stop hit, closed position.

TRMB 36.93 -.75. Watching if it holds this price for possible long.
DRYS 76.41 +1.28. Keeps moving higher.

20070919 PM

DJIA 13,815.56 76.17
NASDAQ 2,666.48 14.82
S&P 500 1,529.03 9.25

Yesterday rates were cut by 1/2%, markets zoomed higher (300 points, 70 points) though not with smashing volume. It looked like a huge short squeeze. Volume light again today. The markets can head lower, possibly beginning later this week. Options expire this week.
Gold/silver went up on interest rate decision. Gold equities have gone higher without huge volume, so they may be pulling back. If overall markets pull back, miners could go on sale.

Yesterday just after rate cut, went long BIDU at 266.48. Sold today at 280. Today BIDU closed at 275.95. With 10% short interest, this has a mind of it's own.

SKF 76.2 -1.08. Range today 74.37 - 77.21. Opened with gap down and worked higher during day. Am looking to buy tomorrow during day.
QID 41.39 -.13. Look to buy on open tomorrow, particularly if markets open up.
GM 34.98 -.79. 2.86% dividend. Keep on watch list for a long. Fundamentally negotiating with unions.
MAS 24.83 -1.32. 3.7% dividend. Gave up gains from yesterday. "Masco manufactures, distributes and installs home improvement and building products." Should have looked to short this on fundamentals and performance of HD/LOW.

20070917 PM

DJIA 13,403.42 -39.10
NASDAQ 2,581.66 -20.51
S&P 500 1,476.65 -7.60
Federal Reserve rate decision 2:15 tomorrow. Many traders are thinking of shorting any bounce.

GM 35.23 +1.01. Longer term going to 55.
GNCMA 12 -.35. Sold off at end of day.
BIDU 252.89 +18.01. Price spread with volume. 10% short.
FXY 86.77 +.19. Currencyshares Japanese Yen Trust.
SNH 20.74 +.01. 6.6% dividend. Senior Housing Properties Trust. May have broken down trend.

20070914 PM

DJIA 13,442.52 17.64
NASDAQ 2,602.17 1.11
S&P 500 1,484.25 0.30

Cotton to be strong next 3-6 months.

20070914 AM

DJIA 13,411.63 -13.25
NASDAQ 2,595.50 -5.56
S&P 500 1,480.75 -3.20

Yesterday AMZN went into highs of July 26-26 2007 with significantly lighter volume. It tested the high with light volume and gave it up on price. Today shorted AMZN at 87.17.

Yesterday BEXP went above previous day high with lighter volume and gave it up on price. Today shorted BEXP at 5.44. Am less certain this short than the AMZN short.

20070913 PM

DJIA 13,424.88 133.23
NASDAQ 2,601.06 8.99
S&P 500 1,483.95 12.39
Indices opened with gap up. Higher prices with lower volume. Interest rate meeting on Tuesday.

F 7.92 +.42. Going to 9.
SNDK 49.99 -1.76 with volume. Looks to test 49.45 then 49.

Long watch list:
CREE 26.95 +.01.
WRLS 6.76 +.45. 52 week high with good volume. Sells to telcos which are starting to make money.
ISIS 13.3 +.54. Good volume, near recent 52 week high.

Watch list:
AUXL 21.21 +.62.
HLIT 10.01 -.02.
OVTI 19.96 +.08.
BPHX 16.51 -.1.
AHS 17.82 +.16. Needs time to build cause.
DGIT 22 -.64. Went over 52 week high and gave up price with lighter volume. "... digital media delivery services to the advertising and broadcast industries." Will present at conference on Monday. Maybe sell the news.

20070912 AM

DJIA 13,314.25 +5.86
NASDAQ 2,602.69 +5.23
S&P 500 1,473.04 +1.55

AMZN 88.1 +1.82. Buy price not hit yesterday. Strong today and pushing toward 52 week high. July 25 2007 high of 88.8 day had 60.5M volume. So far today has 5.4M volume.

HDI 47.09 +.1.

20070911 PM

DJIA 13,308.39 +180.54
NASDAQ 2,597.47 +38.36
S&P 500 1,471.49 +19.79
Indices up on 10%-15% lighter volume.
Have little exposure to mining stocks. Waiting for big correction to take miners down, and then looking to buy miners.

TGB 4.43 +.12. Buy near 3 for a longer term triple.
HOG 46.99 -.67. Last Friday issued poor forecast of upcoming sales. Shorted this Monday at 47.42. Watch October 2005 low of 44.40. March 2003 low of 35.01.

20070907 PM, Tom

DJIA 13,113.38 -249.97
NASDAQ 2,565.70 -48.62. Going to 2386.
S&P 500 1,453.55 -25.00
Index price spread with volume.

HMX 53.78 -1.72. Covered short from earlier this week.
SKF 86.89 +1.64. Looking to go long.
CC 9.8 -.35. Below Augutst 16 2007. Into prices from 2003.
WMT 42.39 -.37. Intraday touched July 2006 low and September 2005 low.
EMC 18.97 -.42. Look to buy in 16.5.
ZUME 45.36 -2.79. Look to buy in 35.5.
DUG 46.15 +1.1. Looks to go to 58.
HTE 26.58 -.52. High dividend.
JASO 38.92 -.17. Can test high of 44 and can also test 26 with market selling off.
GFIG 73.38 -3.08. "inter-dealer broker specializing in over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives products and related securities." This market has locked up, which should fundamenatlly be a problem. August 16 2007 low was 65.69. Look to short soon.
BZH 9.5 -1.41. Fundamental, technical, and legal problems. Look at bear spreads to 8 and below.

20070906 PM

DJIA 13,363.35 57.88
NASDAQ 2,614.32 8.38
S&P 500 1,478.55 6.26

Gold and silver up big on lighter volume. Sold HMY NGD AZK.

WLGC 1.95 -.15.
HMY 9.86 +.53. On watch to soon re-enter long.
WMT 42.76 +.31.

20070905 PM

DJIA 13,305.47 -143.39
NASDAQ 2,605.95 -24.29
S&P 500 1,472.29 -17.13

WMT 42.45 -.85. Low today was 42.35. 42.31 low was seen in 2005 and 2006.

Commercial real estate:
SPG 94.1 -3.23.
VNO 105.15 -2.88.

20070905 AM

DJIA 13,261.08 -187.78
NASDAQ 2,605.54 -24.70
S&P 500 1,468.28 -21.14
Friday and Tuesday (markets were closed Monday) the indices rose on lighter volume.

WLGC Sold at 1.97. Did not want to continue to hold a risky long. Volume is coming in, and can go higher.
HXM Shorted at 55.39. Mexican home builder.

20070904 PM, Tom

DJIA 13,448.86 91.12
NASDAQ 2,630.24 33.88
S&P 500 1,489.42 15.43

HMY 9.5 +.55. Sold an older, working mine. Good volume. Going to 10.05 then can go to 10.87.
IWM 79.75 +1.01. Over all August 2007 highs with much lighter volume. Short candidate to 73s.
WMT 43.3 -.33. Consolidating lows. May break August 2005 lows and head down to 33.
BIDU 216.95 +8.95. Intra-day 52 week high, above July 26 2007 high. 10% short.

20070830 PM

DJIA 13,238.73 -50.56
NASDAQ 2,565.30 +2.14
S&P 500 1,457.64 -6.12

FSLR 102.49 +6.7. Today got into gap, so going to 109.
NGD 5.55 +.81. No news. Possibly they are going to quickly get back the cash that was invested in a firm that is feeling the credit crunch.
ESV 54.97 -3.02 Ensco International Incorporated, NYSE, Sector: Energy Industry: Oil Well Services & Equipment

20070828 PM

DJIA 13,041.85 -280.28
NASDAQ 2,500.64 -60.61
S&P 500 1,432.36 -34.43
Markets had some volume going down.

20070827 PM, Tom

DJIA 13,322.13 -56.74
NASDAQ 2,561.25 -15.44
S&P 500 1,466.79 -12.58
Light summer volume, which could allow price swings either way. Later this week prices could rise into the long holiday weekend.

FXI 153.07 +9.43. Set up to go higher to 172.
MRVL 15.39 -.36. Going to 11.
BCON 1.66 +.22. Can retest 2.37.
BDCO 3.77 +.37. Watch volume at 3.93 for potential run to 4.65 (May 29, 2007).
RMDX 2.09 +.03. Going to 2.28 from Sep 11, 2006. If it passes that with volume then action.
RMD 41.76 -.21. Volume is drying up - a good sign.
IBN 43.98 -1.51. Consolidating, maybe a quick short here.
RIG 102.38 -1.56. Try to short near 105.

WLGC 1.58 +.24. Word is they got a patent last week that can be leveraged for licensing payments from other tech companies.

20070823 PM

DJIND 13,235.88 -0.25 (0.00%) 443,858,000
NASDAQ 2,541.70 -11.10 (-0.43%) 816,377,400
S&P 500 1,462.50 -1.57 (-0.11%) 2,530,699,200
Countrywide recieved $2B from Bank of America in form of loan that can convert to stock. This gapped up the markets, which traded lower throughout the day. Widely reported that BofA got a good deal. Good deals in all markets will happen over the next year+ for those with cash.

MR 32.88 -1.60. Weak showing today.


SRS 98.68 +1.93. Bullish engulfing. Bought at 97.2. Real estate is toast, so would this could be held for a year+. Wide intraday volatility can take out trailing stops.

20070821 PM

DJIA 13,090.86 -30.49
NASDAQ 2,521.30 +12.71
S&P 500 1,447.12 +1.57
Markets slightly weakened and may not want to bounce the next few weeks ... instead go back down now. Let's see what the next couple days bring.

20070820 PM

DJIA 13,121.35 42.27 Can test 13,500.
NASDAQ 2,508.59 3.56
S&P 500 1,445.55 -0.39 Can test 1480.
Markets were slightly higher on lighter volume.

GBN 2.07 +.02. Rejected 1.82 last week. Ready to buy.

CHL 56.34 +1.23. Can bounce to 60, which potentially will double top with lighter volume.
ELOY 16 +2.93. Good volume and big price spread today.
MDG 24.98 +.86. Fundamentally has hostile take over bid they are rejecting. Going up into June 28 2007 gap that had big volume and big price spread.
TMY 1.99 +.02. Held up well last week. Has options. 52 week: 5.18 .. 1.04.

Countrywide

Countrywide Draws On Credit Line
Countrywide Financial Corp. drew down an entire $11.5 billion line of credit to boost its cash position and said it would shift its mortgage lending business into its bank unit, moves that acknowledge the sharp funding pressure on the largest U.S. mortgage lender.
...

FED rate changes have reduced lending costs for overnight loans to banks. This helps banks, not all lenders. This move by Countrywide will allow them to have access to loans like other banks. This is a smart move by Countrywide. Loan originators who can't do this will continue to be squeezed.

CFC 21.43 +2.48. This may be a several week bounce to 25 and 29, with volatility.

20070817 Tom PM

DJIA 13,079.08 +233.30 Can go to 13,500.
NASDAQ 2,505.03 +53.96 Can go to 2600.
S&P 500 1,445.94 +34.67 Can go to 1480.
This week had huge down volume. This morning banks got a temporary reprieve via fed rate cut.

GS 175 +5.15. Can bounce to 198 from July 26, 2007.
NGD 4.83 +.09. They have $160M capital at risk, though intend to continue their projects.
XOM 84.14 +3.47. Can bounce to 87 then pull back.
MO 67.59 +1.23. Will bounce.

1:52

20070816 Tom PM

DJIA 12,845.78 -15.69 Will bounce to 13170. Had lows with volume, so will go back down. TICK -1325
NASDAQ 2,451.07 -7.76 Lows with volume. Will bounce to 2550.
S&P 500 1,411.27 4.57 Made intermediate bottom. Will bounce.
Option expiry this week.


LMC 9.88 -.65. Good test of March 5. Metals were taken apart.
AEM 37.19 -1.38. Buy.
INTC 23.10 -.12. Can bounce to 26.52 from July 17.
FCX 73.07 -4.8. Buy near 63.
NLY 14.03 +.88. 6.8% dividend. Mortgage.
PGH 16.76 -.34. 17% dividend. Canadian energy trust.
HTE 25.66 -.94. 16% dividend. Energy trust.

ERJ 42 +.11. 1.7% dividend. Closed gap from August 2, 2006. Look to buy.

20070815 PM, TICK, cocoa

DJIA 12,861.47 -167.45
NASDAQ 2,458.83 -40.29
S&P 500 1,406.70 -19.84 Will test 1374 from March 2007.

Today TICK indicator hit -1400 showing some fear. Need another similar number to get an intermediate bottom in this downtrend. Then it can bounce.

Would like to research a way to invest in cocoa producers.
Growing Asia Mkt To Fuel Demand For West African Cocoa
Asian producers such as Indonesia may boost cocoa production to meet the strong demand growth expected in the next five years, but the region might find it difficult to source enough good quality West African beans which is an essential blend in chocolate production.
"West African beans will be the most sought-after due to a lack of good quality cocoa produced in Asia," said Yee Chow Boi, honorary secretary of the Singapore-based Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA).

20070814 Tom PM

DJIA 13,028.92 -207.61 Going to 12,700.
NASDAQ 2,499.12 -43.11
S&P 500 1,426.54 -26.38 Going to March lows of 1370.

TMA 7.61 -6.67. Lender. 52 week high 28.4. "Thornburg Mortgage President: No Plans To File Chapter 11"
DUG 51.25 +.65. Going to high volume day fo 55.8 then to 60.
RBY 1.81 -.16. Wait to buy.
AKAM 32.35 -1.48. Not a long. Can go to 16.
SO 35.05. 4.5% dividend. Strong. Buy around 34.5.
LMC 11.56. Good numbers including eurozinc, buying rno. Wait for 11 to buy.

Chinese Fire Sale (Deflationary Argument)

Chinese Fire Sale
So why is the U.S. housing market so crucial to the global economy? Simply because asset inflation, chiefly in real estate, has been the most potent force buoying the domestic economy. Let home values continue to fall, though, and it will trigger a severe recession in the U.S. with effects that would reverberate around the world. China, for one, unable to idle hundreds of millions of workers, would glut the world with distress goods.
...

DJIA 13,108.75 -127.78
NASDAQ 2,522.32 -19.91
S&P 500 1,438.12 -14.80
DUG PROSHARES TR ULTRASHRT O&G -0.34%
SKF PROSHARES TR ULTRASHRT FINL 2.82%

20070813 Tom PM

DJIA 13,236.53 -3.01 Going to 12,600.
NASDAQ 2,542.23 -2.66
S&P 500 1,452.92 -0.72 Going to 1427 then 1373 then 1224.

NGD 6.51 -.03. Unhedged, raised $400M financing two months ago. Will be in production in 1.5 years. Valuation goes up closer to production.
GTI 14.92 -.72. Short was today. Wants to test May 03 2007 low of 10.56.

HL 7.53 +.51. Getting closer to a buy. Is back in the range from February.

CDE 3.86 -.23.
TRE 5.65 +.38.
GBN 2.44 -.01. Can test 2.2.
Bought EMCHS AUG 18, 2007 $18.000 CALL for EMC's IPO of VMWare.

20070809 Tom PM

DJIA 13,270.68 -387.18
NASDAQ 2,556.49 -56.49
S&P 500 1,453.10 -44.39

ADI 37.81 -.22. Had big down volume on May 23, 2007. Short.
AEM 44.15 -.51. Very strong gold stock. Looks like it can go higher, but can consolidate.
NVDA 46.13 +.54. Good numbers after close - beat by 30%. Is over highs.
CTX 38.68 +.1. Counter trend bounce in housing. This sector will go lower. Longer term CTX can go to 13.
SKF 85 +4.69. Twice inverse of financials. Going to 100.
NFG 43.98 -1.26. Will first step down to 41.25 with volume of several days ago.
HL 6.7 -.91. Looks like it can go lower.
GRS 10.84 +.44. Numbers tonight. Recently had downside volume.

Markets Give Up Futures-Induced Spike, GNCMA

The run-up in the last half-hour of yesterday's session has been given back.



Swing short of GNCMA on the pop up this morning.


Update 4:09 PM: trailing stop quickly closed this position at 12.53 for a tiny gain. GNCMA closed up for the day.

20070808 Tom PM

DJIA 13,657.77 153.47
NASDAQ 2,612.98 51.38
S&P 500 1,497.48 20.77

SKF 80.31 -3.23. Can buy here. Will retest 93.
PGNX 24.31 +1.56. Biotech, had numbers, has built cause. Can run to 30.25 - highs this year.
AES 19.19 +.86. Try to short at 21. Can go a lot lower in longer time frame. Support at 16.
ANO 2.86 -.04. Has been hugging line building cause, so wants to go higher. South African gold miner.
VGZ 4.75 +.25. Going to 5.59 from July 12.
TGB 5.30 -.12. Pushing highs with volumes.

ValueRich

ValueRich is a recent low-priced IPO. With the additional overhead for reporting and auditing of public companies, was the little money raised worth the future regulatory headaches?

West Palm Beach, FL-based ValueRich has raised $5.7M in an IPO and is trading tomorrow on the American Stock Exchange as IVA. The company published a financial industry magazine, publishes a web site devoted to small cap stocks, IPOs and the like.

20070807 PM

DJIA 13,504.30 35.52
NASDAQ 2,561.60 14.27 ABC down to 2350 in March 2007.
S&P 500 1,476.71 9.04
Financials doing dead cat bounce.

Ocean Freight Costs Seen High Next Two Years
Ocean freight costs may remain high over the next two years, as demand for foodstuffs, iron ore and coal in China and India is expected to stay robust, Credit Suisse said Monday in an equity research report on Asia's dry bulk shipping sector.

The report estimates global dry bulk trade demand will grow 5% annually until

2010. The major dry bulk items are iron, coal and grains.

As a result of this high demand, ocean freight rates will continue to gain in the second half of 2007. In 2008, freight rates may rise by 5% on year, while an oversupply of vessels may slow down growth in the second half of 2009.

...

20070806 Tom PM

DJIA 13,468.78 +286.87
NASDAQ 2,547.33 +36.08
S&P 500 1,467.67 +34.61 Can counter-trend bounce to 1488.

WYNN 107.39 +6.33. Good numbers after hours.
TCK 41.75 -.46. Getting close to a buy.
LMC 12.09 -.24. Had high without volume. Can buy at 11.8 with tight stop.
HMY 11.02 -2.45. Bad numbers and CEO resigned. Can test 10 and 9.
XLF 33.7 +1.64. Financial sector fund. Counter-trend bounce to 35 or 36.
SKF 85.87 -6.22. Will go lower to 80, counter-trending. Longer term this is a buy.
JBHT 26.88 -.33. Rejected lower price today. Bouncing to 28.5.
TWM 74.65 -1.25. Ultrashort Russell2000 Proshares. Today hit 78.88. Going to 88 then 90.

20070806 Tom AM

DJIA 13,248.89 +66.98
NASDAQ 2,511.76 +0.51
S&P 500 1,437.90 +4.84

HOV 11.75 -27. Short interest is 65%. Look to short at 18.
BZH 10.76 -.54. Accused of fraud. Going to go bankrupt and to zero.
CTX 33.54 -1.77. Today will test 33.13 on lighter volume and then bounce.
BSC 104.19 -4.16. Going lower.
SWC 8.41 -.15. Close at 8.79 with lighter volume at end of week, then it is a buy. Long term going to 18. Still hedged.
FDG 30.01 -2.25. 8.1% dividend. Can test 25.5.
FBALX 20.14 -.38. Fidelity Balanced Fund. Can't get volume on these funds.
DUG 55.13 +2.31. Going to 75 from March 5, 2007.

SP500 broke 200 day moving average.
Nasdaq looking to break 200 day moving average.
Russell2000 already broke 200 day moving average.

DJIA 13,184.92 3.01
NASDAQ 2,493.04 -18.21
S&P 500 1,430.54 -2.52

20070803 Tom PM

DJIA 13,180.85 -282.48
NASDAQ 2,511.25 -64.73
S&P 500 1,432.83 -39.37

TSO 45.42 -2.9 Stay away from the oil sector.
C 45.72 -1.52. Don't buy in a bear market. Going to 42 then lower.
DUG 52.82 +3.45 Double inverse oil sector. Going to 69.
TIE 31.88 -.61 Had good volume at 39.
LOW 27.45 -1.02 Wants to go to 26 - with volume then going lower.
RGLD 26.54 +.37 Buy at 24.85.
AAPL 131.85 -4.64. Going to 116.

Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares

SRS:AMEX

112.00 +6.82 6.48%

The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.




... the Composite 10-City and Composite 20-City indices once again saw month over month and year over year declines in May. ...

20070720 Tom PM

DJIA 13,851.08 -149.33
NASDAQ 2,687.60 -32.44 Needs more volume to crack down.
S&P 500 1,534.10 -18.98 Big break down. Cracked.
IWM Small caps taken apart with volume.
TWM Weakest index -- for shorting.

CAT 83.2 down 3.78. Opened at 79 and rejected that price. There was volume at 79 so it can retest that.
EGO 4.96 +.07. Will test recent low at 4.5.
CRTX 2.14 +.14. Let it consolidate longer before going long.
C 50.73 -.4. Can trade down to 48 of March 14, then watch volume.
WB 49.98 -1.63. Stay short this and other financials.
LVS 83.76 -.36. Buy at 72 on retest or even to 57. Gaming with China play.
NGD 6.78 -.12. New mine near transportation (railroad) and energy (hydro).
ANO 2.68 +.05. Tom owns. Running for 3. Not good risk/reward to buy now.
URRE 10.19 -.35. Wait to buy.
OEGY .77 +.23. Broke down trend. Can go higher to 1.3.
FCX 99.03 +1.37. Too late to buy. Own largest gold mine and largest copper mine.

20070719 Harry

Long possibles:
TASR
TBSI
CMET
EMC Is IPO'ng VMWare.
FTEK

20070627 Tom

DJIA 13,427.73 90.07 Rejected lower price. Had volume lower. Can go up another 100.
NASDAQ 2,605.35 31.19 Sign of strength. Can bounce another 13 points.
S&P 500 1,506.35 13.46 Rejected lower price.
Semis and SMH took off.

AMD 14.58 +.4 Going to 15.63.
GLD 63.67 +.05 Some gold equities are setting up for buys.
SCOX 1.35 +.02 Was 132 is 2000. Can go higher. Have your sell in because it spikes intraday.
PAL 9.47 +.33 Wants to go to 12.
VZ 40.92 -.15 Today rejected lower price with lighter volume at a swing point. Buy.
PKD 11.15 +.48 Consolidation. High with volume is at 12.

20070626 Tom

DJIA 13,337.66 -14.39
NASDAQ 2,574.16 -2.92 Pushing down. Probably wants to do a bounce. Needs more cause to get to low 45.
S&P 500 1,492.89 -4.85 Showing weakness. No support to slow down the drop.
Gold 642 Into January 5 price.
Silver 12.20
Up bias for July 4th next week.
EMS 40.20 +3.85 Closed near daily high. Testing highs with lighter volume.

ALTI 3.72 +.04 Opened up, large down draft during day, closed up.
WWAT 1.32 +.1 Has volume, and is extended. ABC to 1.6.
NYX 72.82 -2 Can bounce, though going lower.
LTR 51.19 -.96 Volume off top with price spread. Going to 45.
BZH 27.73 -.64 52 week low. In time can go to 12. ABC down to 3.

20070625 Tom

DJIA 13,352.05 -8.21
NASDAQ 2,577.08 -11.88
S&P 500 1,497.74 -4.82

TGT 64.16 -.11 Has volume at 65 which will likely be tested.
BX 32.44 -2.62 Blackstone Group Lp
PVX 11.81 -.02 11.41% yield. Buy around 10.5.
NVTL 25.22 +.51 At 52 week high. Has doubled without a pull back.
RGLD 24.16 -.46 Wait to buy golds until after broad market corrects.

20070620 Tom

DJIA 13,489.42 -146 Took back six weeks of trading. Going to 13252.
NASDAQ 2,599.96 -26.80 Going to 2534.
S&P 500 1,512.84 -20.86 Took back 6.5 weeks of trading. Going to 1487.
Small caps gave back gains to April 25.

Over past month, quality volume had been down with light volume up. Down volume accelerating.
AMEX closed early. As of 3:34 p.m. ET, AMEX has closed trading in all equities and ETFs for the remainder of the trading day (options are still trading).

Cotton up strong, was at limit up at one point.
Sugar putting in lows, was overdone to down side, could double in next year. 9.47 cents per pound, was 20 cents per pound in the past.

GROW 24.74 Wait to buy at 19 or 17. Gold equities are not ready to buy. Gold equities will pull back with broad market. Bonds and dollar will pressure down the markets and gold equities.
AMD 13.64 Can pull back to 10 and maybe 2. Has come down from 41 on April 25.
HMY 14.5 Buy at 13.7.
PMU .98 Sign of strength today with price, not volume. Going to 1.13.
AMR 27 Today was sign of strength, and needs to show more proof. Maybe buy next retracement, or if no other sign of strength then can go to 19.
HOG 59.58 Going to 57.91.
DRYS 38.11 Good looking down volume for potential short at 39. Research the Baltic Freight Index.
ACTU 6.26 Pushing highs with volume.

20070619 Tom AM

EMS 38.42 -1.16. Had restested highs with light volume, now going down.
TRE 4.92 Going to test 4.56.
EXPE 29.52 +4.02. News will buy 42% of common stock.
FCX 82.78 -.74. Fundamentally strong. Technically can get to 75 or 62.
AAPL 123.17 -1.92. Large portion of NDX index.
Oils not ready to break down and want to go higher.

20070618 Tom

DJIA 13,612.98 -26.50
NASDAQ 2,626.60 -0.11
S&P 500 1,531.05 -1.86

CROX 44.33 -1.25 28% short.
SIRI 2.90 -.02 Can go to 3.
HMY 14.26 +.36 Has shown signs of strength. Buy at 13.7. Can go to 20 longer term.
TLT 83.52 -.17 Pushing lows with volume. Going down after a few weeks of bouncing around.

Master Limited Partnership

Master Limited Partnerships typically have large dividends.

20070615 Tom

DJIA 13,639.48 +85.76 Three black crows on way down, three gap play on way up.
NASDAQ 2,626.71 +27.30 Same as DJIA, so will go down.
S&P 500 1,532.91 +9.94

Quadruple expiration.
Three black crows like to be tested. 2000 had these everywhere.
Sugar maybe can start to scale in.

GBN 2.67 +.22 In consolidaton. Wait for 2.2 to buy.
SCUR 7.61 +.18 Didn't completely fill February gap. Going for swing of 7.84 from last week.
JOYG 61.24 +.81 Up 50% since March. Should consolidate.
XRA 4.04 +.45
RNO 5.19 +.06
PAAS 27.59 +.54
AEM 36.75 +.8
NTO 5.69 +.19 Retesting high.
NEM 40.43 +.58 Going for 41.7 then 42.

20070614 Tom

DJIA 13,553.73 71.38
NASDAQ 2,599.41 17.10
S&P 500 1,522.97 7.30
Gold 655.70
Silver 13.07

EMS 39.89 +.9 on light volume. 52 week closing high. 52 week intraday high is 40.90. Into May 3 day of huge volume.
Microsoft signed a licensing agreement with Linspire (distributes Linux PC through WalMart). Microsoft also has agreement with Novell. Would Microsoft buy Novell?
XRA 3.59 +.31. Retesting high of June 7 with light volume.
FRPT 25.54 +.29. Want to see more volume to test the recent high at 31.

ONT 3.02 +.15. Has gone parabolic from .74 to 3.99 in May. Not a buy.
ANO 2.40 +.11. Tom owns. Buy at 1.76.
HEES 26.5 +.23. Trying to run to 28.26 of May 11. May 2006 high is 42.05.
VGZ 4.6 +.1. Chart is shaping up for a buy.
NGEN 1.37 -.01. Wait for gap to be filled and 1.25.
RIMM 171.17 +.37. Not yet a short.
CVS 37.26 -.14. Buy around 33.88 from March 16.
AZO 136.61 -1.13. Not yet a short.

London Metal Exchange Changes Rules

Nickel tumbles after LME changes rules
By Anna Stablum

LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) - Nickel fell almost six percent on Thursday after the London Metal Exchange changed lending rules to free up more metal, analysts said.

The nickel market, with prices hitting $51,800 a tonne in May and rising some 40 percent this year, has been characterised by extreme tightness with low stocks in LME warehouses and strong use in China.

The LME amended its lending rules, lowering the limit at which holders of dominant long positions are required to lend to the market, late on Wednesday.

...

20070607

DJIA 13,266.73 -198.94
NASDAQ 2,541.38 -45.79
S&P 500 1,490.72 -26.66

SA 16.53 +.43. Volume today 1,284,500, 178.8 Thousand Avg Vol (10 day).

Clean Energy (CLNE)

"T. Boone Pickens, chose not to sell shares into the IPO."

Clean Energy Fuels Flat 1st Day Of Trade
Investors shied away from Clean Energy Fuels Corp.'s (CLNE) initial public offering on Friday after the stock priced below the anticipated range and selling shareholders, including energy investor T. Boone Pickens, chose not to sell shares into the IPO.

Clean Energy opened at $12 a share on the Nasdaq Stock Market, in line with its IPO price. The stock was recently trading at $12.04.

Clean Energy priced below the expected range of $13 to $17 a share following an auction conducted by WR Hambrecht & Co.

...

20070605 Tom

DJIA 13,595.46 -80.86
NASDAQ 2,611.23 -7.06
S&P 500 1,530.95 -8.23

EYE 36.38 +2.71. Down on big volume last week. Dead cat bounce. Will again go lower.

20070601 Tom, CREE

DJIA 13,668.11 +40.47
NASDAQ 2,613.92 +9.40
S&P 500 1,536.34 +5.72

CREE 24.81 +2.31.
June 1, 2007, 2:51 pm
Cree: AmTech Launches With Buy Rating; Betting on “The LED Revolution,” He Sees The Stock Doubling
Posted by Eric Savitz

Andrew Huang, an analyst at American Technology Research, this morning launched coverage of Cree Inc. (CREE) with a Buy rating and an ambitious $50 price target.

Huang is making a big concept bet here: he sees Cree as a bet that LED-based lighting (LED stands for light emitting diode) “is the best available” lighting technology in the market today with respect to efficiency, cost, useful life and the environment. “Similar to the trends in solar and ethanol stocks, we believe the LED lighting market will emerge as the next ‘clean energy’ investment trend,” he wrote in a research note today. “We believe this story is a long-term, fundamental, secular growth story, with technology that it the proverbial ‘game changer.’”
...


BP 67.61 +.60. High of 69.96 had some volume. 3.67% dividend. Don't sell your long.
ONT 2.95 -.14. Look to buy at 2.36.
BRCD 8.44 -.75. Going to 5.

20070531 Harry

DJIA 13,627.64 -5.44
NASDAQ 2,604.46 11.87
S&P 500 1,530.62 0.39

Possible short: CC
Longs:
aplx
arrs
cirk
crtx
elon
ftek
nvtl
prcr

20070530 Tom PM, China Selloff, US Reverses Higher

DJIA 13,633.08 111.74
NASDAQ 2,592.59 20.53
S&P 500 1,530.23 12.12

CME Consumer Price Index Futures
Trade Unit Contract Valued at $2,500 times the Reference CPI Futures Index.
Settle Method Cash Settled
Point
Descriptions 1 Point = .005 Index points = $12.50
Contract
Listing March, June, September and December. 12 Consecutive "March quarterly" contract months.
Current Listings
Strike Price
Interval N/A
Product
Code Clearing=CU
Ticker=CPI

Cotton having weather/pest issues?

WWAT .91 +.21. Finished ABC.
PZZ 5.20 +.20. Illiquid. With volume can test 9.
WFR 58.95 +1.01. Had volume off the highs in April. Today had volume without big price spread.
JOYG 55.76 +4.95. Good volume with price spread.

Non-Mortgage REIT

From marketwatch.com.

20070524 Selling

DJIA 13,441.13 -84.52
NASDAQ 2,537.92 -39.13
S&P 500 1,507.51 -14.77

20070522 Tom PM

DJIA 13,539.95 -2.93. Going to 13476.
NASDAQ 2,588.02 9.23
S&P 500 1,524.12 -0.98

RBY 2.01 +.01. Tom owns. Nice setup. No rush to buy.

20070517 Tom PM

DJIA 13,476.72 -10.81
NASDAQ 2,539.38 -8.04
S&P 500 1,512.75 -1.39. Going to 1491.

CAAS 8.2 +.34. Going to 12-13. Good long risk/reward.
POT 205.08 +4.41. Doubled in past six months, so not a buy here. Look to buy around 186.
RIG 93.31 +2.88. Broke up with volume. Going to 98.
SDS 52.20 +.18. Going to 62.
VLO 73.07 +1.04. Look to buy at 63. Likes oils.
IYR 81.92 -1.50. Going to 66 in a year. Also see SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares).
SRS 84.69 +3.09.
AVB 117.71 -2.68. Already breaking down. Can go to 90 soon.

UNG Natural Gas ETF

ECOL Filling Gap

2.9% dividend.

Currency ETFs

Trade like equities (with currency gaps...).

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Tr (FXB) At 12:09PM ET: 198.16 Down 0.86 (0.43%)

CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) At 12:15PM ET: 135.36 Down 0.64 (0.47%)

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) At 12:16PM ET: 82.91 Down 0.32 (0.38%)

Covered Calls On Dividend Payers

Buy a decent stock with a good dividend just before the ‘ex’ date, then sell a deep-in-the-money call against it. When and if it's called away, you've made money. If it isn't, sell options again.

Barron's May 13

Dean Foods, DF, milk problems are waning. 31.98 +.41.

Emerging Market Performance From 1997

Have sold nearly all longs, and am starting to go short.

Selling a Fidelity emerging market fund from 1997. The numbers show that it is tough to time the entry, so going in 1/2 with a plan to add later is effectively what happened.

20070515 Tom PM

DJIA 13,383.84 +37.06
NASDAQ 2,525.29 -21.15 Going to May 1 swing. Going lower.
S&P 500 1,501.19 -1.96 Going to 1363 then can go lower.

This is not just a correction, this is a bear market and the highs are in. The fast counter-trend bounces (like today) are there to force shorts to cover.

AMAT 19.78 -.64. Failure. Going lower. Numbers.
IAG 7.07 -.22. 6.44 can be tested.
HL 8.43 -.06. Has support at 8.23 from February 21.
VZ 42.54 + .94. Hold if long.
BTU 50.41 -.29. Buy around 46.7.
RRD 42.03 -.83. Going to 38.
SBUX 28.39 -.51. Selling volume is accelerating. Can go to 23.
CSCO 26.13 -.16. Gapped down May 9, that high was 27.09. Let it go back up to that price, close under that price, then think about shorting. Has large support at 24.

GOOG 458 -3.78. Sets direction of weighted average nasdaq index. 452 is next level.
ARM 20.64 -.11. Not yet a short though consolidating and fill gap to 19. Wait for April 26 high volume up-day retest and failure.
AAPL 107.52 -1.84. Came off high with some volume.

20070514 Tom PM

DJIA 13,346.78 +20.56
NASDAQ 2,546.44 -15.78. Going to 2331.
S&P 500 1,503.15 -2.70. Going to 1363.

Commodities going down, including miners: GRS GG RGLD.

CHD 49.52. Look to buy 43-44.
CM 122.15 up 2.21. Broke above down-channel started February 27. Can buy here with tight stop.
AMAT 20.48 up .71. Going to test 20.77.
PRW .93 up .16. Needs more volume to keep going up.
SBUX 28.9 down .71. Dropping below support at 29 and trapping longs since August 2006. Support at 26.
GOOG 461.78 down 4.96. Large consolidation 440 - 500. Google and myspace blocked for US military troops.
TXN 39.93 up .23. Break to topside.
XLF 37.57 down .18. Volume coming off high. Financial Select Sector Spdr Fund. March 14 2007 low of 34.18 has not been tested.

Zinc Producers

In addition to GMO, this article describes other publicly traded zinc producers.

One key to finding stocks with the highest appreciation potential is to identify a metal largely off investor’s radar screens on the verge of a major move up. The other key is to identify companies that are rapidly increasing production of that metal. We will first focus on the next base metal likely to move up and then review three miners that are significantly increasing production over the next 12 months.

The next base metal that is likely to move up strongly this year is Zinc. Fundamentals for zinc continue to be very strong. A major Zinc miner, Xstrata, has said they expect strong demand through 2013. The primary reason for strong demand is zinc’s use as a means to protect steel from corrosion. Galvanizing of steel (applying a zinc coating) is the largest use of zinc. Galvanized steel is critical for the development of infrastructure. India and China are rapidly growing, building infrastructure for their booming economies.


Miners covered in the article:

Acadian Gold (ADGLF.PK) 1.18

Blue Note (BNMFF.PK) 0.60
This Company has refurbished an old mine they bought from Breakwater Resources. They are anticipating production start up next month with a ramp up to a staggering 100 million pounds of Zinc and of 40 million pounds Lead per year. Earnings and cash flow should be huge relative to the capitalization of the company.

Breakwater Resources (BWLRF.OB) 2.56
Breakwater operates several mines in North and South America. According to their most recent presentation they are the highest leveraged company to the price of Zinc. The majority of their revenue does come from Zinc but they also have an impressive repertoire of production from Copper, Gold, Lead and Silver. Breakwater produces several hundred million pounds of zinc and they are bringing two more zinc producing mines online in the next few months.

GNSS

Genesis: CFO Resigns; Earnings Next Week
Posted by Eric Savitz

This cannot possibly be good news. Genesis Microchip (GNSS) today announced that its CFO, Michael Healy, is resigning effective May 8, “to pursue another opportunity.” The company provided no other details, and did not immediately name a successor.

Daniel Gelbtuch, an analyst at CIBC World Markets, says the “wheels continue to fall off the train,” and repeated his Sector Underperformer rating on the stock. Gelbtuch notes that several other execs have recently left the firm, which makes chips used in digital televisions.

“Timing of CFO’s departure seems ominous, since GNSS will report March Q results in 5 days (May 2),” he writes. Gelbtuch also plays down recent rumors that the company could be acquired. “It doesn’t seem to make sense to resign now if GNSS were even remotely close to being acquired.”

Genesis today fell 68 cents, to $8.81.


Some support at 8. If it gets below 8, then go back to 2002 to find support.

Covered Call Funds

ECV 20.24 10% dividend.
RCC 20.10 10% dividend.

Barron's April 23

Notes from Barron's.

YHOO 27.46. Possible longer term pick. Supposedly is now at some lows.

Offshore rigs. Past 52 weeks these are down 5% - 14%. Supposedly can move higher if they pay out dividends. Consider long term LEAP bull spread with selling monthlies.
RECENT TARGET
TICKER PRICE PRICE
RIG 81 119
GSF 62 94
DO 81 128
NE 79 125
ESV 54 93

JOYG 47, down 1/3 past year. Mining equipment and servicing of equipment. Supposedly has stabilized.
BUCY 56, smaller competitor, valued higher than JOYG.
Consider pairs trade of short BUCY long JOYG, or long term bull spread on JOYG.

DPZ, Domino's. 33 will be 19.5 when ex-dividend on May 7. Supposedly will not go higher.

New Zealand market strong. Auckland Airport, AIA.New Zealand, pays dividend.

Snow Futures

Volatility has created opportunities for good trading results the past couple weeks. Big caps continue to hit new highs while mid and small begin to roll over. Some lower-priced miners have been volatile and appear to be staging for another run, particularly GMO.

BID, COMS long potential.
TSCM has been a good short. SUNW may be OK short for track potential market pullback.

This is interesting, and may spur opening of a futures account.
CME Snowfall Futures
CME Boston Seasonal Strip November Snowfall Futures
Trade Unit $200 times the Respective CME Seasonal Strip Snowfall Index
Point Descriptions 1 Point = 1 inch = $200.00
Contract Listing Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr
Strike Price Interval N/A
Product Code Contracts reflect City and Start month.
SV has an October start month.
SX has a November start month.
SZ-December.
SF-January.
SG-February
SH-March.
The following Cities are supported:
Clearing & Ticker:
SBV/SBH=Boston
SXV/SXH=New York City

Ocean Power Technologies

alarm:clock newsletter

Power Generating Buoy Maker Ocean Power Sets IPO Terms
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Pennington, NJ-based Ocean Power Technologies has set its proposed IPO terms to 5M shares at $20 - $22 per share. It plans to trade on the Nasdaq under ticker symbol OPTT with UBS serving as lead underwriter. Shareholders include Henderson Group.
Ocean Power Technologies is listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange in 2003 under the symbol “OPT.” Ocean Power has revenue of $2M and a net loss of $6M It market cap is $213.7M.
Ocean Power's buoys develop renewable energy from ocean waves. Its system consists of a floating buoy that is loosely moored to the seabed so that it can freely move up and down on the rising and falling of the waves, as well as a power take off device, an electrical generator, a power electronics system and a control system.The power take off device converts the mechanical stroking created by the movement of the unit caused by ocean waves into rotational mechanical energy which drives the electrical generator.The company was awarded an initial contract from US Department of Homeland Security and has had deals to operate buoys in Spain and France.

20070326 Tom PM

INDU 12469 -12.
SPX 1438 +1.
CCMP 2456 +7. Going for gap at 2492.

Set a bear trap. Window dressing starts Wednesday.

ANO 1.7 +.08. Tom owns and has sold 1/2. Wants to go to 2 then 1.3.
CMGI 2.49 +.29. Going higher with volume. Wait for pullback to buy.
EGO 6.09 +.11. Consolidation.
RIO 37.6 +.62. Moving up.
FCX 64.7 +2.4. Copper play. Going to 70.
IAG 7.93 +.07. Tested and moving off bottom. Going to 9.5 and further.
NYX 91.74 +4.07. Counter trend bounce to 97 before going lower.
ZIXI 1.75. Consolidation for some months.
HOG 60.75 -.45. Needs more time and sign of strength until a buy.
GROW 55.4 +6.4. Commodity fund. Going higher into January 4.
NAK 11.25 +.04. Going higher.
TXCC 1.62 -.02. Wait to buy at 1.49.

Details Of One Intra-Day Setup

Brett details an intra-day trade. It would be interesting to see how this stands up to back testing, and how stops affect the performance of the trade.

Here's a great example of a breakout trade for a very short-term stock trader.

SUNW

The gap on January 24 can be filled. A move below 5.9 can send SUNW quickly to 5.5.

GMO, Like An Option

GMO 3.51 up .73 on heavy volume. Low price miners, like GMO, can make percentage moves like an option. Permitting/regulatory/legal (political) actions can cause dramatic moves.

Mining Ocean Floor

Nautilus has ocean technology to dredge the ocean bottom.


Underwater mining. This shows more promise than ultra-deep mining though the obstacles are similar in that we have an inhospitable environment to overcome. The use of modified submersible devices from the deepwater oil industry has helped accelerate the technology curve and high ore grades are hoped for.

To demonstrate the infancy of this mining approach we have Nautilus Minerals Inc. (see link) that is working at depths of up to 1600 meters off the coast of Papua New Guinea. The company is talking about dredging up 2 million tons of rock per annum which presumably must be the amount required to make it a profitable exercise even at suggested grades of 10g per ton. This computes to 5,479 tons per calendar day, which is comparable to the deep mines mentioned above though Nautilus claims that production costs will be lower than traditional mines due to such factors as softer rocks and no overburden.

However, attempts to find statements on starting dates for production let alone proven reserves figures failed.
...

20070206 Tom PM

DJIA 12,207.59 157.18
NASDAQ 2,385.14 44.47 Made an island bottom.
S&P 500 1,395.41 21.29 Going to 1445.

BRCD 9.8 +.36. ABC up.
MGM 66.79 +1.66. Had a great run. Consolidation. Watch to buy at 63 or 54.
MS 73.55 +1.91. Needs time to build cause again.

20070301 Tom PM

DJIA 12,234.83 -33.80
NASDAQ 2,404.21 -11.94
S&P 500 1,403.14 -3.68
Markets are and will bounce. Tom closed all shorts at open this morning and went long.

ANO 1.29 +.08. Tom owns. The .8 ticks are bogus.
NTO 4.47 +2. Break out going to 4.69.
TIE 33.84 -1.09. Rejected lower price with lighter volume so is going to top at 37.
ABX 29.27 -.6. Hedging gold, don't buy.
XLE 56.72 -.18. Going to 59.
SMSI 15.24 +1.75. Numbers last night. Today sign of strength: price spread, volume. Is at resistance. Buy the retracement around 14. Going to 19.
WGAT 1.14 +.01. Needs sign of strength.
WFMI 46.95 -.82. Can buy here.
TONS 41.12 -.73. Buy at 38.3.
WNR 30.1 +1.19. ABC up. Buy was today.
ORCL 16.77 +.34. Needs bigger sign of strength to buy.
LNG 28.43 +.68. Consolidation.
IAG 8.19 -.22. Wants to test 8.03. Can go to 9.35.
PWE 29.16 -.82. Let it test 27.5 with less than 1.3M volume, then wait for sign of strength (price spread and volume), then buy next pull back.

20070226 Tom PM

DJIA 12,632.26 -15.22
NASDAQ 2,504.52 -10.58
S&P 500 1,449.37 -1.82 Volume accelerating into lows.
Gold 690.70 Running for 700 then will try for 732.
Oil 61.55

IAG 8.94 -.05. Consolidation. Can test 8.82. If test and reject of 8.69 then buy going to 9.8.
UXG 5.12 -.07. Stay long.
CMGI 1.55. Earnings tonight. Lighter volume, can go down. Can test 1.44.
CNS 43.42 -2.75. REIT. Came off highs with volume.
MDG 29.46 -.89. Tom sold. Coming off highs with volume.
FRO 35.83 -.49. 27% dividend. Rejecting lows. Going for gap at 37.15.
FDG 24.87 +.91. 13% dividend. Higher with volume. Close around 25.71 this week and it confirms ABC up and action.
AGT .59 -.15. Heavy volume off highs. Announced private placement valuing shares at .5.
CKG 6.9 +.2. Will test Feb 20 down draft day.
MFN 11.17 +.21. Don't buy.
PAAS 31.7 +.67. Tom owns. Buy pullback.
AULO 1.03 -.08. Better miners out there.
IAG 8.94 +.05. Consolidation. Can test 8.69. Will go higher.
GOOG 465 -6. ABC down to gap at 419 from October 2006. Natural retracement could take it to 300. It will still need to show it wants to go back up.
SMTC 15.19 -.11. Highs with the necessary volume last week. Broke down trend. Action. Going to 17 then 21.
RMDX 1.33. Can to go to top of consolidation at 1.57.
HURN 63.96 -1.19. Let it consolidate and look for possible buy.
UCTT 17.1 +.45. Big up move Friday with volume. Up today when chips and nasdaq down, so keep an eye on this.
NG 17.14 +.44. Tom owns. Interview, says Barrick has 1/3 and is going to lose some of that share so NG will have more.
NovaGold Resources Inc. announced Friday that it had received its Environmental Assessment Certificate from the Province of British Columbia necessary for construction, operation, and closure of its Galore Creek project.

20070223

DJIA 12,647.48 -38.54
NASDAQ 2,515.10 -9.84
S&P 500 1,451.19 -5.19

20070222 Tom PM

DJIA 12,686.02 -52.39
NASDAQ 2,524.94 +6.52
S&P 500 1,456.38 -1.25
Gold -3. Huge strength yesterday.

IAAC 18.45 Going to 15.80.
PMTI 44.19 Is in the middle. Can go to 39.13.
ADM 35.23 Gap at 32 is open.
AMSC 11.95 Can run to 15.1. Buy the next pull back.
OXGN 4.53 Volatile, personality stock. Wants to go to 5.2. Buy 4.1.
JBLU 13.16 Low of last week at 12.51 will be tested.
CPST 1.05 Big sign of strength yesterday. Can test 1.65.
BTU 43.88 Going to 48.59.
LOW 33.63 Consolidation.

20070221 Tom PM

DJIA 12,738.41 -48.23 Will test higher.
NASDAQ 2,518.42 +5.38 Will test higher.
S&P 500 1,457.63 -2.05 Will test high of yesterday at 1460.
Gold 682 +21 Price expansion with volume.

GIW 9.61 4% dividend. Wants to go to 10.15. Tiny volume.
MEE 24.9. Wants to go to 28. There is volume at 27. Could test 44. Buy.
GSS 3.72 Going to 4.7.
PHO 19.32. Water.

=========
MAMA 5.15 Coiling.

Northern Orion

Jason likes NTO:
Add in over $180 million in cash holdings and you have a miner that appears to be significantly undervalued. Northern Orion (NTO) stock is trading at only $3.80, despite two days of solid gains. With a P/E ratio of around 7 and a net profit margin over 100%, we like the fundamentals.

S&P 500 ($INX) 4% Decline Buying Opportunity

Interesting.

"I always carry a cane after the S&P 500 ($INX) has declined more than 4% in the past week," he replied. "That's how the old-time speculators made all their money. When panic came to Wall Street, they'd buy to the full extent of their bank balances. Casanova, for example, often profited from buying stocks during panics and was quite generous with the proceeds in his chivalrous adventures.

"Cane investing still works," he added. "Over the past six years, there were 64 weeks when the S&P fell more than 4%, and the average change during the next seven trading days was a 3% rise."

20070214 Tom PM

DJIA 12,741.86 +87.01
NASDAQ 2,488.38 +28.50
SP500 1,455.30 +11.04

Venezuela Chavez is setting farmer's sales prices.
QID Tom is short. 2X inverse of QQQ.
HTE January 5 is still out there. Dangerous.
NAVZ Went to pick sheets. Pushing highs with volume. Not a short.

20070213 Tom PM

Index Last Change Open High Low
DJIA 12,654.85 102.30 12,549.19 12,658.22 12,549.19
NASDAQ 2,459.88 9.50 2,485.37 5,482.62 2,452.17
SP500 1,444.26 10.89 1,433.22 1,444.41 1,433.22

Volume
NYSE AMEX NASDAQ
1,448,646,000 35,138,000 815,537,000

Commodities moved much higher.
SPIL 8.69 Natural retracement is to 8.30.
PXP 49.22 Wants to break up and then run to 55. If it fails will go to 43.
NG 16.66 Tom owns. Trying to break up to 18. There are other golds that have more juice.
GSS Can buy at 3.35.
EGO 5.96 Pushing highs with volume.
IAG Tom owns. Consolidation. Can buy right here at 8.50. Wants to go to 9.80 when Venezuela strike is settled.
SNG 2.34 up 17%. Going to 2.73 then 3.65.

ESLR Going up. Earning tomorrow.

20070212

Index Last Change Open High Low
DJIA 12,552.55 -28.28 12,580.11 12,607.51 12,536.21
NASDAQ 2,450.38 -9.44 2,460.23 2,460.63 2,444.68
SP500 1,433.37 -4.69 1,438.00 1,439.11 1,431.44

Volume
NYSE AMEX NASDAQ
1,316,535,000 41,061,000 828,958,000

AUY Tom owns. Friday did not hold higher price. Can test 12.82. Gold equities not yet ready to break up.
AOB Came off highs with volume.
FCX 2% dividend. Consolidation. Can test 52. Will go back to 63.

AHM TIE LTS MDLK, miners

Ideas.


AHM 11% dividend. Sold off today.
TIE
LTS
MDLK


The place to be is where the company is going from losses to significant profitability. That list (in alphabetical order) includes:
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
Alamos Gold [AGI.TO]
Eldorado Gold (EGO) [ELD.TO]
Gammon Lake Resources (GRS)
Guyana Goldfields [GUY.TO]
Harmony Gold (HMY)
Hecla (HL)
High River Gold [HRG.TO]
Highland Gold [HGM.L]
Meridian Gold (MDG) [MNG.TO]
Minefinders (MFN) [MFL.TO)
Richmont Mines (RIC)
Sino Gold (SIOGF.PK) [SGX.AX]
Yamana Gold [AUY/YRI]
You might add to that list a couple that are sitting on huge ore bodies and will be in production in two years or so: Crystallex (KRY) and Aurelian [ARU.TO]. For the best pure exploration play I like U.S. Gold Corp (UXG). And for pure silver I like Silver Wheaton (SLW).