20111230 Weekend

Dow 12,217.56 -69.48
Nasdaq 2,605.15 -8.59
SP500 1,257.60 -5.42
30-yrBond 2.89% -0.02

Happy New Year and blessings.

GLD 151.99 +1.65
SLV 26.94 -0.13
PTM 16.12 +0.23
XLE 69.13 -0.03
XLF 13.00 -0.07
VXX 35.53 +0.55

Candidates for selling naked puts or buy-write (to collect dividend):
DTE 54.45 -0.57. DTE Energy. 52 week range 43.22 - 55.28. 4.3% dividend.
PCAR 37.47 +0.01. PACCAR. 52 week range 31.57 - 58.75. 2% dividend.
TE 19.14 -0.12. TECO Energy. 52 week range 15.82 - 19.66. 4.5% dividend.

20111228 PM

Dow 12,151.41 -139.94
Nasdaq 2,589.98 -35.22
SP500 1,249.64 -15.79
10-YrBond 1.9080% -0.1010

Indices opened flat and sold off all day.
Dollar higher. Precious metals lower.

GLD 151.03 -3.88
SLV 26.27 -1.60
PTM 15.90 -0.70
XLE 68.45 -1.33
XLF 12.86 -0.21
VXX 35.88 +1.49

In a tax shielded college savings plan, am allowed to make a trade once per calendar year. Moved from 100% money market to 100% broad stock index. Plan to hold through January bounce, then have a mental trailing stop.

WSJ article on the private Federal Reserve propping up Europe.
European banks are depositing most of the funds with Europe's central bank. This ridiculous attempt to kick the can down the road is not fixing any problems, though it allows fat-cat banksters to collect a few more bonus checks.

20111227 PM

Dow 12,291.35 -2.65
Nasdaq 2,625.20 +6.56
SP500 1,265.43 +0.10
30-yr Bond 3.04% -0.03

This week looking to go long broad index to catch rise after tax-loss selling and into New Year.

This year, making one allowable trade in the college savings account to go long. Next year, 2012, will be allowed one other trade.

GLD 154.91 -1.40
SLV 27.87 -0.41
PTM 16.60 +0.10
XLE 69.78 +0.18
XLF 13.07 -0.07
VXX 34.39 -0.30

SSO 47.06 +0.06. Went long at 47.15 for swing trade.
GBG 0.93 -0.02. Watch how it tests 1.20.

BAC 5.48 -0.12

20111215 1112

DJIA 11,881.75 +58.27
NASDAQ 2,539.57 +0.26
SP500 1,217.29 +5.47

GBG 0.935 -0.02. Long at .94. Day range .93 - 1.03. Held price yesterday in face of gold price puke.

20111214

DJIA 11,859.46 -95.48
NASDAQ 2,540.99 -38.28
SP500 1,215.58 -10.15

Dollar continues higher into 80s. Commodities continue down.

Yesterday closed AGQ for a small loss and REGN for a loss.
Yesterday went long DZZ to catch a gold short. Today trailing stop closed the gold short in DZZ at 5.30 for a gain.

20111210 Weekend

Dow 12,184.26 +186.56
Nasdaq 2,646.85 +50.47
SP500 1,255.19 +20.84
10-YrBond 2.0520% +0.08

SFLY 25.54 +0.18. Shutterfly, Inc. 52 week range 24.06 - 66.70. While a bounce is due, this can go much lower.

20111123 PM

DJIA 11,257.55 -236.17
NASDAQ 2,460.08 -61.20
SP500 1,161.79 -26.25

The morning Germany's $5 billion debt issuance was under-subscribed (failed). Germany is the strong country in the Euro, so this means every other Euro country is weaker and will have greater difficulty selling debt.
European countries will likely begin issuing "euro dollar bonds" to achieve lower interest rates. This is issuing bonds that are payable in US Dollars.

Dollar higher. Going for 1.40 higher. This will put additional pressure on stocks and commodities.
Money continues to flow into US treasuries.

GLD 164.83 -0.48
SLV 30.93 -0.96
PTM 17.88 -0.25
XLE 64.29 -2.01
XLF 11.75 -0.33
VXX 48.60 +2.18

AGQ 56.80 -3.71 (-6.13%). Out for an appointment and trailing stop closed intraday long position at 57.48 for .16 per share gain.

20111123 1207 AGQ

DJIA 11,320.75 -172.97
NASDAQ 2,475.81 -45.47
SP500 1,168.99 -19.05

Dollar up. Indices and commodities down.

Thursday, tomorrow, markets closed for Thanksgiving. Historically, Friday is single most positive day of trading year. Nobody wants to be long now and over the weekend due to European financial problems and Euro.

AGQ 57.23 -3.28 (-5.42%). Long at 57.32. Looking for intraday two points.

20111121 1200 DUG

DJIA 11,500.76 -295.40
NASDAQ 2,510.69 -61.81
SP500 1,187.97 -27.68
NYSE 7,103.10 -179.36

The unconstitutional "super committee" on cutting federal government debt has failed.
Commodities are selling off.
There are reports MF Global's missing customer funds are not $600m but billions. People are losing confidence in the markets.

DUG 29.53 +1.56. Intraday trailing stop sold position at 29.49 for 1.94 per share gain.

20111118 Weekend, Cocoa

Dow 11,796.16 +25.43
Nasdaq 2,572.50 -15.49
SP500 1,215.65 -0.48
30-yrBond 2.9960% +0.0210

GLD 167.62 +0.52
SLV 31.40 +0.76
PTM 18.43 +0.04
XLE 68.15 -0.41
XLF 12.50 +0.04
VXX 46.89 -1.55

DUG 27.97 +0.29
TRX 2.50 +0.06

Cocoa's Woes Set to Dissolve, at Barrons.com describes near-term fundamentals. A few lines from the article:

Several factors have pushed down cocoa prices for the 2011-2012 crop year, which began in October. However, shrinking supplies and steady demand will be sending those prices higher next year. ...
Starting with the March 2012 contract, IntercontinentalExchange, or ICE, one of the main markets for cocoa trading, will implement higher standards for the cocoa traded on the exchange, limiting the amount of cocoa shells, dust and other debris from shipments.
Some investors have exited from the December contract, waiting for the guarantee of beans with less debris in the March contract, which is the next one after December.

20111117 1249 DUG TRX

DJIA 11,753.09 -152.50
NASDAQ 2,587.05 -52.56
SP500 1,217.01 -19.90

DUG 27.59 +1.05. ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas. Long at 27.55.
TRX 2.49 -0.10. Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. Selling long at 2.48 for .10 per share gain.

SLV 30.41 -2.41 (-7.34%). Big down bar looks to retest 30.

20111116 PM

Dow 11,905.59 -190.57
Nasdaq 2,639.61 -46.59
SP500 1,236.91 -20.90
30-yrBond 3.0550% -0.0420

Oil hit 101 per barrel.

GLD 171.51 -1.85
SLV 32.82 -0.84
PTM 18.81 -0.25
XLE 70.16 -1.07
XLF 12.71 -0.32
VXX 46.29 +2.16

CME 241.18 -16.33 (6.34%). Reports are CME new of a huge wire transfer of funds from MF Global to JP Morgan just before the MF Global bankruptcy.
JEF 10.32 -0.70 (6.35%). Jefferies Group, Inc.

20111111 Weekend

Dow 12,153.68 +259.89
Nasdaq 2,678.75 +53.60
SP500 1,263.85 +24.16

Indices gapped higher then drifted higher throughout the day.

TRX 2.84 +0.55 (24.02%). Regaining much of the loss from yesterday's open.

2011110 1356 TRX

DJIA 11,933.63 +152.69
NASDAQ 2,632.93 +11.28
SP500 1,242.66 +13.56

Indices rebounding from sell-off yesterday.
Earlier this week gold tested and failed to hold above 1800. Silver looks weak.

TRX 2.40 -1.02. Day range 1.56 - 3.44. Company says it is not aware of a specific cause for sell-off. Started tiny position of a few hundred shares at 2.40. Have larger purchase order at slightly lower price.

20111107 PM

Dow 12,068.39 +85.15
Nasdaq 2,695.25 +9.10
SP500 1,261.12 +7.89
10-YrBond 1.99% -0.06

Commodities jumping higher with dollar flat.

GLD 174.98 +4.13
SLV 34.08 +0.88
PTM 19.30 +0.31

XLE 71.65 +0.39
XLF 13.36 +0.07
VXX 42.82 -0.43

DMND 39.09 -7.31 (15.75%). Diamond Foods, Inc. 52 week range 38.45 - 96.13.
MELA 5.16 +0.50 (10.73%).
XG 8.85 +0.49 (5.86%). Extorre Gold Mines Limited.

CNSL 18.52 +0.29. 8.50% dividend.
WIN 12.00 +0.15. 8.20% dividend.

20111004 PM

Dow 10,808.71 +153.41
Nasdaq 2,404.82 +68.99
SP500 1,123.95 +24.72
30-yrBond 2.76% -0.00

Dramatic turnaround in stock indices set up a nice bounce. Indices opened lower, marked time, and ramped higher into close.

GLD 157.64 -3.31
SLV 29.09 -0.40
PTM 16.89 -0.58
XLE 58.37 +1.85
XLF 11.73 +0.45
VXX 52.84 -3.99 (7.03%)

CNSL 17.60 +0.60. 8.6% dividend.

Consider to short next bounce:
ANF 60.25 +0.60
GE 14.86 +0.17

Buy these if gold drops again:
JAG 4.59 -0.04. Jaguar Mining Inc. Ramped higher last 1/2 hour of trading. 52 week range 4.11 - 7.90.
VGZ 3.20 +0.04. Vista Gold Corp. 52 week range 2.25 - 4.59.

20110930 Weekend

Dow 10,913.38 -240.60
Nasdaq 2,415.40 -65.36
SP500 1,131.42 -28.98
10-YrBond 1.92% -0.03

Precious metals were mixed and miners continued to fall. Large drop in COMEX gold and silver short positions.
Copper continued to sell off. Consider buying at 2.9.

GLD 158.06 +0.36
SLV 28.91 -1.05
PTM 17.64 -0.19
XLE 58.51 -1.77
XLF 11.81 -0.43
VXX 53.37 +3.51

EK 0.7801 -0.91 (-53.84%). Bankruptcy speculation. At this price, this is a lottery ticket.
PCLN 449.46 -28.56 (-5.97%)

GDX 55.19 +0.16 (+0.29%)
DUST 39.72 -0.40 (-1.00%)
FCX 30.45 -0.89 (-2.84%). Intraday 52 week low.
SVM 7.91 +0.12 (+1.54%). News is they are opening their operations and books to inspection to dispute claims of fraud.
TRX 3.59 -0.11 (-2.97%)

20110929 1123

DJIA 11,149.52 +138.62
NASDAQ 2,481.95 -9.63
SP500 1,158.24 +7.18

Pre-market prices were higher. Prices are fading along with Europe. Cleaned up some positions to raise cash.
AUY 13.47 +0.01. Sold at 13.45 for 3.97 per share loss.
DISH 26.75 -0.41. Sold at 26.84 for .45 per share loss.
SSO 39.80 +0.51. Sold at 39.82 for .63 per share gain.

20110927 PM

Dow 11,190.69 +146.83
Nasdaq 2,546.83 +30.14
SP500 1,175.38 +12.43
30-yrBond 3.1160% +0.1140

GLD 160.63 +3.05
SLV 31.17 +1.40
PTM 18.13 +0.03
XLE 61.73 +0.89
XLF 12.26 +0.06
VXX 47.64 -0.96

TRX 3.54 -0.57 (13.87%). Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. Volume came in at the end of the day at the lows. Price is back to January 2010.

20110926 PM, possible buys: FCX NUE SCCO

Dow 11,043.86 +272.38
Nasdaq 2,516.69 +33.46
SP500 1,162.95 +26.52. Looks to test 1170 tomorrow then 1201 and 1230.
30-yrBond 3.00% +0.13

Stock indices are bouncing and may strongly run higher into end-of-quarter window dressing.
Dollar slightly lower, though not backing off.
Gold tested 1550 and silver tested 26. Gold and silver made scary lower price tests, taking out stops, then recovered. Wait for a retest of today's lows to consider buying.
GLD 157.58 -2.22. Supposedly sold 5.4 metric tons of gold today, though they didn't sell last Friday. This is a huge sell and could mark a bottom (in the next couple days if they have more to sell).

SSO 40.10 +1.91

Copper producers:
FCX 33.77 +1.40. Freeport McMoran. 3.1% dividend. Buy around 28.
SCCO 26.57 +0.37. Southern Copper Corp. 9.7% dividend. Buy at 19.16.

Other miners:
AUY 14.16 +0.44. 1.2% dividend.
GBG 1.88 +0.11
NEM 64.39 +1.53. 1.8% dividend.
SVM 7.27 +0.54. 1.1% dividend.

NUE 32.79 +1.22. Nucor Corporation. 4.6% dividend. Nearing a buy.

CNSL 18.46 +0.55. 8.8% dividend.

20110926 1150

DJIA 10,940.56 +169.08
NASDAQ 2,492.47 +9.24
SP500 1,149.09 +12.66

Last week stock indices were hit hard and commodities were hit harder. Dollar was higher and European uncertainty continued. A bounce, of unknown duration, may be starting.

SSO 39.20 +1.01. Started 1/2 position at 39.19.

DISH 27.60 +0.84. Possible purchase today.

20110922 PM

Dow 10,733.83 -391.01 (3.51%)
Nasdaq 2,455.67 -82.52 (3.25%)
SP500 1,129.56 -37.20 (3.19%). Volume is lightening up. Expecting bounce, maybe Friday after lunch, though it make take until Monday. On weekly chart, this stays above 1100 or it is heading to 1000.
10-YrBond 1.72% -0.16

Yesterday FOMC announced they will buy long bonds.
Precious metals lower. Industrial metals continue lower, with copper having totally broken down. "Dr." Copper had recently signaled lower commodity prices. Oil lower.
Look for stock indices to stay in a volatile trading range.

GLD 169.05 -4.54 (2.62%)
SLV 34.92 -3.64 (9.44%)
PTM 19.73 -0.78 (3.81%)
XLE 59.34 -3.55 (5.64%)
XLF 11.56 -0.34 (2.86%)
VXX 49.84 +4.63 (10.24%)

Miners:
AUY 14.74 -1.66 (10.12%)
GBG 1.89 -0.23 (10.85%)
NEM 65.24 -2.44 (3.61%)
SVM 6.82 -0.31 (4.35%)

20110921 1300

DJIA 11,371.08 -37.58
NASDAQ 2,599.41 +9.17
SP500 1,195.58 -6.51

Cleaning up some positions before FOMC announcement this afternoon.

ZAGG 12.15 +0. Sold at 12.13 for 2.90 per share loss. Following momentum led to this loss.

20110916 Weekend, MXWL

Dow 11,509.09 +75.91
Nasdaq 2,622.31 +15.24
SP500 1,216.01 +6.90. Consider shorting at 1230.
30-yrBond 3.34% -0.01

This week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England acted together to provide liquidity to European banks to keep the banks from collapsing. The USA's private central bank known as the Federal Reserve is making 1/2 TRILLION dollars in loans available. This is significantly beyond the prudent and safe mandate of "the Fed", which has become a blatant manipulator to support the insolvent banks. While European bank troubles are much larger than the troubles that brought down Lehman Brothers in 2008, no amount of manipulation will fix the problems. It is time to end the Fed!
In a positive development for gold bulls, gold closed above the middle of the trendlines (~1780). Weekly close above 1800 is good for gold bulls. Fundamentally, it appears the precious metal pullback this week was caused by banks lending gold in a scramble to get dollars and liquidity.
Austria restricted gold purchases by individuals.

GLD 176.03 +1.63
SLV 39.39 +0.60
PTM 21.02 +0.18
XLE 67.09 -0.41
XLF 12.90 -0.01
VXX 41.55 -0.83

BAC 7.23 -0.10
C 28.99 +0.40
MXWL 18.50 -0.05. Maxwell Technologies Inc. 52 week range 12.77 - 19.65. Capacitor energy storage technology going into hybrid cars. Long term buy.
NFLX 155.19 -14.06. Broken stock.
RIMM 23.93 -5.61. Potential short if it bounces.
SVM 7.02 +0

20110912 PM

Dow 11,061.12 +68.99
Nasdaq 2,495.09 +27.10
SP500 1,162.27 +8.04. Lower on lighter volume then went higher. Look for retest of 1230.
10-YrBond 1.93% +0.02

After an open lower with dollar higher, dollar turned lower and stock indices went slightly higher with lighter volume. Precious metals recovered slightly from lows to put in a down day.
European stock indices had a big down day. European banks continue to show problems. German DAX is breaking the lows on lighter volume.

BAC 7.05 +0.07

Bespoke Investment Group created this graphic of ten year performance of some sectors:

20110912 1427

DJIA 10,853.07 -139.06
NASDAQ 2,447.63 -20.36
SP500 1,139.52 -14.71

Dollar slightly higher. Metals lower. Look for precious metal bounce here - gold ~1800 and silver ~40.
World stock indices haven't bounced.

EWG 17.28 -0.54. Stop hit to close long at 17.29 for 2.09 per share loss.

20110908 PM

Dow 11,295.81 -119.05
Nasdaq 2,529.14 -19.80
SP500 1,185.90 -12.72
30-yrBond 3.31% -0.0440

Dollar higher. Precious metals higher. Stock indices lower.

GLD 181.81 +4.73
SLV 41.22 +0.69
PTM 21.82 +0.46
XLE 67.11 -0.79
XLF 12.63 -0.28
VXX 41.86 +0.67

Is this a slight pullback in a trading rally? Setting up for a long term rally like QE1 and QE2? Will stimulus come from a federal government make-work program instead of a bailout of the bankers by the Federal Reserve? If money will be spent, will it be spent for the people or for the bankers?

In what many saw as manipulation early Tuesday morning, the price of gold fell after the Swiss devalued their currency. Typically downward gold price manipulation will set of stops that cause a further selling cascade. This price drop was quickly recovered. If the manipulators are losing their impact, will they turn to other tools such as the CME raising margin requirements?

AGQ 232.80 +7.41
AUY 17.39 +0.72. Yamana Gold, Inc. Hesitated too long during day and finally bought near close at 17.42. Price indicates something big is happening. Going for 2008 high of 19.65.
EWG 18.81 -0.65
REGN 72.19 +0.92
ZAGG 14.57 -0.45

Miners:
AU 46.69 +0.43. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.
KGC 18.18 +0.40. Kinross Gold Corporation. 52 week range 13.84 - 19.90.
XRA 5.48 +0.13. Exeter Resource Corporation

20110907 PM

Dow 11,414.86 +275.56
Nasdaq 2,548.94 +75.11
SP500 1,198.62 +33.38
10-YrBond 2.04% +0.06

World stock indices are bouncing. Play the bounce for a few days.

GLD 177.08 -5.82
SLV 40.53 -0.52
PTM 21.36 -0.41
XLE 67.90 +2.40
XLF 12.91 +0.59
VXX 41.19 -1.53

AGQ 225.39 -5.69. Sold at 225.72 for 7.69 per share gain. Also, started tiny position at 227.39.
EWG 19.46 +0.75. Long at 19.38.
REGN 71.27 +2.72. Long at 71.3. Trying to take out 52 week high from April at 71.74. Volume now is much lighter than April.
ZAGG 15.02 +0.28. Long at 15.03.

AUY 16.67 -0.24
MAKO 38.00 +0.36

20110907 1252

DOW 11,337.06 +197.76
NASDAQ 2,530.24 +56.41
SP500 1,190.70 +25.46

World stock indices bouncing. Oversold equity bounce or more sustainable? When to buy relative performers?
German court ruled further bailouts are OK. Buy Germany via EWG or SAP?
Silver underperforming. Gold apparently manipulated lower. Hesitant about silver.
Many people want to short US government bonds. The manipulation can continue by the Fed. Wait a month.

Watch if indices hold their gains today. Metals recovering somewhat.

AGQ 226.91 -4.17. Went long tiny position at 227.3.

20110906 PM, Swiss Franc Devalued

Dow 11,139.30 -100.96
Nasdaq 2,473.83 -6.50
SP500 1,165.24 -8.73
10-YrBond 1.98% -0.02

USA markets were closed yesterday for Labor Day. World markets sold off Monday and Tuesday.
Stock indices gapped lower and closed at days highs.
Dollar made made big move higher to test 76.
Early Tuesday morning, Swiss central bank devalued their currency (effectively pegging it to Euro) about 8%. Price of gold had reached new highs before the Swiss devaluation. Some say this is an "easy" trade of short Swiss Franc, long Euro. I suggest staying away from paper manipulated works. Instead, keep stacking the physical bullion.
Gold was lower on Swiss banker currency devaluation (paper manipulation). Oddly, GLD held higher prices until 11AM Eastern.

GLD 182.90 -0.34
SLV 41.05 -1.13
PTM 21.77 -0.26
XLE 65.50 -0.72
XLF 12.32 -0.22
VXX 42.72 +1.24

DGP 71.49 -0.27. Sold at 72.40 for 3.90 per share gain.

Relative strength:
AUY 16.91 +0.08. Yamana Gold, Inc. Intraday 52 week high.
CSII 13.24 +0.68. Cardiovascular Systems Inc. 52 week range 4.84 - 16.25.
MAKO 37.64 +0.74. MAKO Surgical Corp. Intraday 52 week high.
REGN 68.55 +3.77. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 52 week range 24.17 - 71.74.
ZAGG 14.74 +0.37. 52 week range 3.45 - 17.10.

BAC 6.99 -0.26
TIN 30.85 -6.22 (25.25%). Temple-Inland Inc.
FXF 114.80 -10.45 (8.34%). CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust.

20110902 Weekend

Dow 11,240.26 -253.31
Nasdaq 2,480.33 -65.71
SP500 1,173.97 -30.45
30-yrBond 3.31% -0.20

USA markets will be closed on Monday.

GLD 183.24 +5.37 (3.02%)
SLV 42.18 +1.66 (4.1%)
PTM 22.03 +0.41 (1.9%)
XLE 66.22 -1.90 (2.79%)
XLF 12.54 -0.54 (4.13%)
VXX 41.48 +1.99 (5.04%)

Dollar higher. Precious metals higher. Copper lower. Oil lower.
Stock indices gapped lower on open and closed near low of day.

Gold had new record weekly close. While gold volume was lighter, it looks to retest the recent highs.
DAX100 5,538.330 -192.30 (3.36%). If breaks below recent lows of 5,345.36, watch out.

AGQ 243.90 +18.52 (8.22%)
DGP 71.76 +4.13 (6.11%)
SDS 24.22 +1.23 (5.35%). Not taken out with trailing stop.

BAC 7.25 0.66 (8.34%). Everyone who bought after Warren Buffett's sweetheart deal is in a losing position.
HRB 13.41 -1.77 (11.66%). H&R Block, Inc. 52 week range 10.13 - 18.00. Steep decline in reported earnings for the fiscal first quarter of 2012.
MRVL 12.89 -0.13. Intraday 52 week low. Rumors of speed problems with their chip that is included with SSD devices made by other companies. A big recall would be expensive. "You will be very disappointed with any SSD you hook up to is as the marvel controller just wont reach the speed they clam it will."
NFLX 213.11 -20.16 (8.64%)
SVM 7.53 -0.88 (10.46%). Silvercorp Metals Inc. 52 week low. Problems in China with accusations of financial issues.
TRX 5.85 -0.03. Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp.

Weekend viewing:

20110902 1308

DOW 11,296.00 -197.57
NASDAQ 2,496.42 -49.62
SP500 1,181.26 -23.16

Indices gapped down on the open. Copper and oil lower. Precious metals higher. Dollar higher.

SDS 23.94 0.95 (4.13%). Tightened trailing stop of SP500 short from 2% to 1%. Expecting to be taken out today.

20110901 1535

DOW 11,512.34 -101.19
NASDAQ 2,547.79 -31.67
SP500 1,206.08 -12.81

Indices up 80% of time before holiday. Markets look weak, so they may be lower tomorrow.

Staying with positions of long gold, long silver, short SP500.

GLD 177.76 +0.04
SLV 40.45 +0.00

20110830 PM

DOW 11,559.64 +20.39
NASDAQ 2,576.11 +14.00
SP500 1,212.89 +2.81. Repelled at 1220.

Stock indices went slightly higher with light volume.
Precious metals nice move higher.

AGQ 224.22 +7.22
DGP 68.45 +3.52. Long at 68.50 near end of day. Had expected silver to be stronger than gold, but gold is pulling higher quicker than silver.
SDS 22.80 -0.09. Long at 23.05. ProShares UltraShort S&P 500. Price rose last half hour and shook out some shorts, before it went lower to close near flat.

20110830 1247

DJIA 11,506.67 -32.58
NASDAQ 2,557.84 -4.27
SP500 1,205.24 -4.84. Failing to hold 1210, there will be battles around this number the remainder of the day.

Dollar higher. Precious metals higher.
Stock indices turning lower.

SDS 23.018 +0.13. Long at 23.05. ProShares UltraShort S&P 500. Was useful to wait until today to short the index, instead of shorting near end of day yesterday.

20110829 PM

Dow 11,539.25 +254.71
Nasdaq 2,562.11 +82.26
SP500 1,210.08 +33.28
30-yrBond 3.62% +0.09

Stock indices higher on lighter volume and closed at highs.
Was looking for SP500 1208 area to short. Fifteen minutes before close at 1209 was looking at SH as short vehicle. Decided to wait for possible short covering gap higher tomorrow morning. Looking for a big move - which direction?
Precious metals opened lower and closed above opening prices. Since Sunday night, gold volatility has been big.

GLD 173.89 -3.58
SLV 39.72 -0.69
PTM 21.35 -0.01
XLE 67.73 +1.92
XLF 13.30 +0.53
VXX 38.50 -2.57

In yesterday's Barrons weekly financial newspaper, they dared to print the truth about bailouts and monetary manipulation:

"There's no consensus at the Fed. They don't know what to do," says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research. "Government intervention at all levels has shown to be ineffective" at stimulating housing or the broader economy. Now it's time to let the markets clear and allow prices—whether for stocks or housing—to fall to a clearing level. Doing so may be painful near-term, Bianco warns, but long-term, it will lay the groundwork for stronger economic growth.

AGQ 217.00 -7.30. Long at 218.03.

BAC 8.39 +0.63 (8.12%)
SH 43.52 -1.28. ProShares Short S&P 500.

Miner buy out:
AUQ 11.35 -2.57 (18.46%). AuRico Gold Inc. Ordinary Share. Announced buy out of NXG.
NXG 4.03 +0.88 (27.94%). Northgate Minerals Corp. Intraday 52 week high.

20110829 1100

DJIA 11,448.13 +163.59
NASDAQ 2,530.35 +50.50
SP500 1,197.01 +20.21

Precious metals sold off at the open. After an hour of bumping near the morning lows with no further downside, price is recovering.

AGQ 217.90 -6.40. Silver double long. Started 1/2 long position at 218.03. Watch how it handles 221.

20110826 Weekend

Dow 11,284.54 +134.72
Nasdaq 2,479.85 +60.22
SP500 1,176.80 +17.53
10-YrBond 2.19% -0.03

Dollar lower and closed at lows. Precious metals higher and closed at highs.

GLD 177.47 +5.11
SLV 40.41 +0.41
PTM 21.36 +0.06
XLE 65.81 +1.25
XLF 12.77 +0.11
VXX 41.07 -0.65

This week, margin for futures contracts on gold was raised. Following the script of the silver take-down earlier this year, will there be more margin hikes the next few weeks? Increasing volatility in price of gold. Gold closed well over 1750 (which was a key level) at 1794. If gold tests lower 1700s next week, that would be a nice buy. For precious metal futures traders, the disparity in leverage between silver and gold has been reduced thus slightly increasing the attractiveness of paper silver.
Barron's article Gene Epstein saying gold price not going higher for a year. James Turks says gold will quickly go over 1900 and "should hit $2,000 within 30 days".

Big lunar cycles this upcoming Monday.

Head of the private Federal Reserve, chief counterfeiter Ben Bernanke, spoke at the big bash in Jackson Hole and didn't say much.

Bill Cara wrote, "Yesterday, in the heat of a crushing sell-off in the heaviest weighted components of GDX and GDXJ, two of my holdings, which are not included in either of those indexes, closed the day over +10% higher.
The ETF situation has gotten so bad for honest traders that I really have no more appetite trading the components, and I’m going to recommend to the smaller companies whose shares have been put into GDXJ that they bitterly complain to the SEC, and demand their ticker symbols be removed."

BAC 7.76 +0.11

20110825 1027

DOW 11,215.82 -104.89
NASDAQ 2,441.70 -25.99
SP500 1,167.49 -10.11

DGZ 12.08 0.18. Sold overnight long at 12.07 for .20 per share gain.

20110824 PM

Dow 11,320.71 +143.95
Nasdaq 2,467.69 +21.63
SP500 1,177.60 +15.25
30-yrBond 3.61% +0.14

Dollar slightly higher. Financials recovered. Gold futures margins raised 27%, which will put several more days of pressure on the price of gold.
Metals sharply lower, for second day.

GLD 171.64 -6.02
SLV 38.83 -1.80
PTM 21.16 -0.75
XLE 65.95 +0.39
XLF 12.70 +0.33
VXX 40.90 -0.87

AGQ 208.50 -20.99 (9.15%). Sold at 210.79 for 25.71 per share loss.
UPRO 52.56 +2.17 (4.31%). Sold two positions at 50.18 for approximately 1.9 per share gain.

DGZ 11.90 +0.50 (+4.39%). Long at 11.87 to hedge physical holdings.

BAC 6.99 +0.69 (10.95%). Analysts pumping.

20110819 Weekend

Dow 10,817.65 -172.93
Nasdaq 2,341.84 -38.59
SP500 1,123.53 -17.12
10-YrBond 2.07% -0.01

Dollar was sharply lower Friday morning, particularly against the Yen. Dollar recovered a little of the losses.

Thursday overnight and into Friday morning was bad news and world markets looking to pull USA markets lower. There was significant fear Thursday night. Friday USA stock indices held up.
Stock indices closed at daily lows. Monthly charts are breaking down.
This weekend closes monthly option expiration. Surprising there was not massive expiration-related volume to the downside today.

Trading volume should lighten up with more people on holiday the next couple weeks.

GLD 179.95 +2.23 (1.25%)
SLV 41.68 +2.02 (5.09%)
PTM 21.68 -0.29
XLE 63.24 -1.14
XLF 12.13 -0.25
VXX 42.55 +2.08

FTSE in London held price. May bounce on Monday.

Gold another all-time high made with steady, orderly moves higher. With continuing new highs, look for further futures margin hikes. Venezuela's Chavez is repatriating gold, which may be causing a scramble for physical gold (not paper exchange-traded gold) which may be putting the bid on physical gold. At some point, a major miner will buy a junior miner which will start to break the current trade of long physical and short miner stock.
On watch for additional gold futures margin increases.

Physical silver closed in 42s. Will begin next week on solid technical ground. Looks to test $44.

Oil 3.7% lower this week.

Euroland banks are breaking down and country bailouts are potentially breaking down. The country bailouts are actually bailouts to the banks, so these are one in the same.

0% Interest Rates Lock in Inflation
The decision by the Fed, last week, to keep a key interest rate at near zero percent for 2 years is historic because the Fed has never done this before.
...
This ... telegraphs a policy of inflation by the government.
...
Zero percent interest on a key Fed rate confirms my prediction right along with the rising inflation in just about everything except housing.

Rolling Stone magazine is becoming the premier financial investigative reporter. So long WSJ and Barron's.

Is the SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes?
A whistle-blower claims that over the past two decades, the agency has destroyed records of thousands of investigations, whitewashing the files of some of the nation's worst financial criminals.

AGQ 241.57 +22.32 (+10.18%). Long at 236.50 to be long silver over the weekend. 52 week range 56.70 - 382.08.

DGP 69.14 +1.53 (+2.26%). Sold at 69.17 for 4.18 per share gain to take profits after quick gold move higher. Moved funds into AGQ.
UPRO 45.92 -2.23 (-4.63%).

HPQ 23.60 -5.91 (-20.03%). Multi-year low.

AUY 15.51 +0.22.
MDW 2.26 +0.02.
TRE 5.29 +0.17.

20110818 PM

Dow 10,990.58 -419.63. Closed below round number 11,000.
Nasdaq 2,380.43 -131.05.
SP500 1,140.65 -53.24. Bulls need solid move above 1150.
Nyse 7,079.41 -339.53
30-yrBond 3.44% -0.13

Dollar up. Oil down.
Gold, silver and platinum up. Gold at all-time highs and most miners lower.
Stock indices gapped lower and are testing key levels. Indices did not bounce during the day with small short-covering bounce in last ten minutes. Volume was lighter than may be needed to push considerably lower.
Downtick -1728 is big. May have another big one tomorrow morning.
Monthly option expiration this weekend.

GLD 177.72 +3.30 (1.89%)
SLV 39.66 +0.33 (0.84%)
PTM 21.97 +0.47 (2.19%)
XLE 64.38 -3.96 (5.79%)
XLF 12.38 -0.63 (4.84%)
VXX 40.47 +6.94 (20.7%)

BGU 49.49 -7.52 (-13.19%). This morning stopped out of two positions. One for loss of 5.29 per share and the other for loss of 7.48 per share.
UPRO 48.15 -7.22 (-13.04%). At end of day started 1/2 long position at 48.27.

MRVL 11.97 -0.88 (-6.85%). MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD ORD. Earnings down nearly 13%.
XIV 7.73 -1.93 (-19.98%). VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX SHORT TERM ETN.
HPQ 29.51 -1.88 (-5.99%). Wild intraday trading on news and earnings released during day.

20110817 PM

Dow 11,410.21 +4.28
Nasdaq 2,511.48 -11.97
SP500 1,193.89 +1.13
30-yrBond 3.57% -0.08

GLD 174.42 +0.50
SLV 39.33 +0.30
PTM 21.50 +0.25
XLE 68.34 +0.27
XLF 13.01 +0.08
VXX 33.53 +0.66

Today, 17th, was big astro cycle day.
Dollar lower and looks to go lower ... to test 72.
Expecting stock indices to move higher.
Metals slightly higher. Gold is building a base to retake 1800. Silver closed above round number 40.

Chavez in Venezuela is nationalizing gold miners. Also moving Venezuela-owned gold from safekeeping outside the country into the country. 15th largest holder of Venezuela, having 365 tons of gold. 99 tons is at Bank of England.

BGU 57.01 -0.02. Increased long position at 57.10.

20110817 1253

DOW 11398.48 -7.45
NASDAQ 2509.50 -13.95
SP500 1194.17 +1.41
10Yr.T-Note 2.183% -0.31

Looking for stock index strength to accelerate.
Metals remain strong, with silver over 40.

BGU 56.91 -0.12. Increased long position at 57.1.

AUY 15.45 +0.21. Strong miner.
MDW 2.23 +0.00

20110816 PM

Dow 11,405.93 -76.97
Nasdaq 2,523.45 -31.75
SP500 1,192.76 -11.73
10-YrBond 2.21% -0.07

Dollar and oil mostly flat.
Gold closed higher at 1778.50. Silver closed higher 39.87, and is trading at 40 round number after hours. Metals weekly closes will be important.

GLD 173.92 +2.12
SLV 39.03 +0.36
PTM 21.25 +0.17
XLE 68.07 -1.15
XLF 12.93 -0.26
VXX 32.86 +0.68

20110815 PM

Dow 11,482.90 +213.88
Nasdaq 2,555.20 +47.22
SP500 1,204.49 +25.68. Going for 1249.
30-yrBond 3.7470% +0.0440

Dollar down. Metals up. Oil barely positive. Gold back above Jim Sinclair's 1764 "angel".
Consider selling gold at 1781 later this week, unless it runs into 1800.
Option expiry week. Stock indices look to go a little higher into Wednesday.
Happy Birthday, Free-Floating U.S. Dollar

GLD 171.8 +1.83
SLV 38.67 +0.55
PTM 21.08 +0.07
XLE 69.22 +2.26 (3.38%)
XLF 13.19 +0.41 (3.21%)
VXX 32.18 -1.95 (5.71%)

AUY 15.28 +0.45. Yamana Gold, Inc. 52 week range 9.73 - 15.30.
MDW 2.24 -0.08. Midway Gold Corp. 52 week range 0.42 - 2.89.

20110812 Weekend

Dow 11,269.02 +125.71
Nasdaq 2,507.98 +15.30
SP500 1,178.81 +6.17
10-YrBond 2.2370% -0.0990

Another record closing high for gold. CME raised gold margins 22%.

GLD 169.97 -0.78
SLV 38.12 +0.32
PTM 21.01 +0.07
XLE 66.96 +0.49
XLF 12.78 -0.09
VXX 34.13 +0.35

EDZ 23.32 +0.03. Closed at 23.33 for per 5.92 pershare loss. Really bad trade that chased the end of a move. At least it was a tiny tiny position.
BGU 55.12 +1.14. Started long position at 54.89.

20110811 PM

Dow 11,143.31 +423.37
Nasdaq 2,492.68 +111.63
SP500 1,172.64 +51.88
10-YrBond 2.3360% +0.1990

The carnival ride continues.
CME raised gold margin requirement 22%.

GLD 170.75 -3.83
SLV 37.80 -0.64
PTM 20.94 +0.28
XLE 66.47 +3.28 (5.19%)
XLF 12.87 +0.68 (5.58%)
VXX 33.78 -1.39 (3.95%)

20110810 PM

Dow 10,719.94 -519.83 (4.62%). Big problem below 10604.
Nasdaq 2,381.05 -101.47 (4.09%)
SP500 1,120.76 -51.77 (4.42%)
30-yrBond 3.54% -0.04

Reversing yesterday's upside action, indices down. This massive volatility is good for traders but investors will be stepping away from the casino.
Dollar up. Gold over 1800. Silver and platinum higher. Oil lower.

GLD 174.58 +5.97 (3.54%)
SLV 38.44 +2.12 (5.85%)
PTM 20.65 +0.24 (1.18%)
XLE 63.19 -2.26 (3.45%)
XLF 12.19 -0.91 (6.95%)
VXX 35.17 +3.91 (12.51%)

DGP 65.43 +4.08 (6.65%). Long at 64.99.
ZSL 13.44 -1.61 (10.70%). Performed it's job of being a short term hedge against my physical. Closed position today at 13.75 for 1.1 per share loss.

ORCL 26.48 -1.12 (4.06%). Industry leader caught in market downdraft.

20110809 PM

Dow 11,239.77 -429.92
Nasdaq 2,482.52 -124.83
SP500 1,172.53 -53.07
30-yrBond 3.57% -0.09

Indices turned red as The Bernank was speaking, then recovered and ramped higher into the close. Indices making a decent bottom and are setting up for a nice bounce.
Dollar lower. Crude at $80 has had a huge price plunge.
Gold price intraday higher than platinum price. This is a rare event. Purchased physical gold bullion today.

GLD 168.61 +1.491
SLV 36.32 -1.65
PTM 20.41 +0.39
XLE 65.45 +3.17 (5.09%)
XLF 13.1 +0.94 (7.76%)
VXX 31.26 -3.52 (10.12%)

ZSL 15.05 +1.18 (8.51%). Was purchased Friday to hedge physical silver bullion. Was nervous about this over the weekend. Now this hedge is performing well.

20110808 PM, EDZ

Dow 10,809.85 -634.76 (5.55%). Weekly close below 10,800 would be extremely negative.
Nasdaq 2,357.69 -174.72 (6.90%). Semiconductors showed some relative strength.
This may be first index to bounce.
SP500 1,119.46 -79.92 (6.66%). Huge volume. Straight down to October 2008 monthly levels.
30-yrBond 3.66% -0.16. Even after Standard & Poor's downgraded USA debt, money moved into bonds pushing rates lower. Apparently there is nowhere else to put liquid money (other than gold). Higher interest rates would immediately implode the USA economy and make government refinancing costs unbearable.

Indices continued to sell off into the close. The longs are trapped and the knife-catching dip buyers pulled their bids.
Dollar up. Gold much higher. Silver up. Platinum slightly down. Copper and oil lower.

GLD 167.11 +5.36 (3.32%). Ramped higher and held onto gains during the day. Gold contract closed at 1717.50 up 54.10. Targeting 1900. Could be going parabolic. Jim Sinclair's gold target of 1650 is gone, and 1764 is on the way. Round number targets of 1900 and 2000 are in play.
SLV 37.97 +0.65 (1.74%). Gave up some of the gains during the day. Gold is dragging this along. The parabolic move earlier this year with the sharp sell-down (and margin increases) has caused real damage to the "juice" that had been in silver.
PTM 20.02 -0.04 (0.2%)
XLE 62.28 -5.79 (8.51%)
XLF 12.157 -1.273 (9.48%)
VXX 34.78 +4.47 (14.75%)

EDZ 29.03 +5.68 (+24.33%). DIREXION DAILY EMERGING MARKETS BEAR 3X SHARES. Has had a huge move. After hours started small position at 29.25 to sell in the morning.

IYR 49.05 -4.56 (8.51%). iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate. 52 week range 48.95 - 63.00.

MDW 2.05 -0.11 (5.09%). Nine months of outperformance, yet caught in the selling.
SLW 33.24 -0.91 (2.66%)

BAC 6.51 -1.66 (20.32%)
C 27.95 -5.49 (16.42%)

F 9.93 -0.91 (8.39%)
GM 24.57 -1.74 (6.61%)

BRAQ 14.71 -1.32 (8.23%). GLOBAL X BRAZIL CONSUMER ETF.
EWZ 57.00 -5.83 (9.28%). ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL INDEX FUND.

Telecom dividends are looking interesting:
BCE 35.95 -0.98 (2.65%). Bell Canada. 5.70% dividend. Let it go lower to 33s.
CNSL 16.77 -0.74 (4.23%). 8.80% dividend.
T 27.70 -1.23 (4.25%). AT&T. 5.90% dividend.
VZ 33.12 -1.93 (5.51%). 5.60% dividend.

South African miners (using Rand currency) showed relative strength:
GBG 1.87 +0.00. 52 week range 1.67 - 3.32.
GFI 14.65 -0.15 (1.01%)
HMY 13.05 -0.09 (0.68%)

20110805 Weekend

Dow 11,444.61 +60.93
Nasdaq 2,532.41 -23.98. Another huge volume down day.
SP500 1,199.38 -0.69
30-yrBond 3.8230% +0.1010

Massive downtick of -1752 portends a bounce. Margin calls will be happening early next week, so Monday might open down.

GLD 161.75 +1.11
SLV 37.32 -0.29
PTM 20.06 -0.13
XLE 68.07 -0.66
XLF 13.43 -0.26
VXX 30.31 +1.42 (4.92%)

USA major stock indices are negative for the year. T-bill rates went negative (similar to 2008).

According to Bloomberg, "... the past week’s market plunge wiped out about $2 trillion in global equity value."

This week USA politicians raised debt ceiling beyond 2012 election and promised future spending reductions. A day later there was big volatility worldwide in all sectors. Crude oil and copper plunged. Gold and silver held up relatively well, though miners were hit.

On the week, gold was higher and silver was lower.
Gold made another record high this week. Gold is being bought in large amounts by governments and private individuals. While someone with a large interest in GLD could liquidate and precipitate further selling, gold held up well this week.
Silver is very volatile. While it could break down, when it eventually has a weekly close above $50 I expect it to quickly rise to $80+. $62 silver in January 2012 is possible.

A Chinese rating agency downgraded USA debt. The USA-based Standard & Poor's rating agency downgraded USA debt from AAA may precipitate selling (pensions, endowments, insurance, etc.). State and municipal downgrades should quickly follow.
Neil Cavuto discussing debt rating with Presidential candidate Ron Paul:


Any positives are being sold - bearish action. When will there be a bounce, and will it be sustained? Was this sell-off a setup for QE3? The Fed meets Tuesday. There has been recent stealth easing such as the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which depressed prices.

In a sign of dysfunctional monetary policy and predatory banks BNY Mellon will charge negative interest on accounts with large cash deposits: Bank of New York Mellon Corp. on Thursday took the extraordinary step of telling large clients it will charge them to hold cash.

Labor participation dropped to a multi-decade low. This makes unemployment numbers look better than the reality.

Germany is saying Italy's debt problems are too big to be handled by the EU. "The government doubts whether even tripling the size of the rescue fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility, would enable it to save Italy because the country's financing needs are so enormous, the magazine reports without naming the source of its information." If Italy's banks start to fail, there will be exposure of worldwide financial insolvency.

ZSL 14.33 +0.25. ProShares UltraShort Silver. Went long Friday to hedge some of the physical silver in my possession. This is simply a hedge. Anticipate keeping this hedge for a few trading days - until some normalcy returns.

Recent trade analysis:
Good to sell MDW after huge run.
Expired trailing stop on leveraged BGU inflicted pain. Lessons - nice sell, moved too fast into leverage on other side, away from markets without trailing stop.
Tried to trade volatility on Friday and was stopped out for mostly losses. Good to step back and stop trading.

Other than MDW, miners have been lagging. To step away from markets and into cash, sold the remaining miners Friday, mostly for losses:
RTRAF
TKRFF
OKOFF
UXG
MDW
GPL
EXK

BAC 8.17 0.66 (7.47%). 52 week range 8.03 - 15.31. Intraday 2 year low. The ridiculously cheap $8.5 billion "settlement" has the New York Attorney General pusuing BAC for related violations.
F 10.84 -0.02
GM 26.31 +0.32. 52 week range 24.49 - 39.48. Intraday 52 week low.

IPSU 9.44 -13.75 (59.29%). Imperial Sugar Co. 52 week range 9.21 - 25.68. Intraday 52 week low.

20110805 1212

DOW 11,260.17 -123.51
NASDAQ 2,494.32 -62.07
SP500 1,180.41 -19.66

SDS 25.20 +0.71. Trailing stop sold at 25.28 for .12 per share gain.

20110805 1205

DOW 11,191.52 -192.16
NASDAQ 2,477.03 -79.36
SP500 1,172.86 -27.21

Gold holding while silver let loose to the downside.

ZSL 14.80 +0.72. ProShares UltraShort Silver. Long at 14.85. Will hold for a few days of more selling and volatility.

20110805 1144

DOW 11,280.75 -102.93
NASDAQ 2,507.33 -49.06
SP500 1,183.83 -16.24

SDS 25.12 +0.63. Double short SP500. Long at 25.17. Another try, with smaller position size. Trailing stop .50.

20110805 1130

DOW 11,297.25 -86.43
NASDAQ 2,519.70 -36.69
SP500 1,188.51 -11.56

AGQ 200.40 +2.77. Stopped out at 199.3 for 6.2 per share loss on small position.
SDS 25.02 +0.53. Stopped out at 24.76 for .02 per share gain.

20110805 1117, Below low of day

DOW 11,266.71 -116.97
NASDAQ 2,512.34 -44.05
SP500 1,184.29 -15.78

Major stock indices dropping below daily low. Waterfall cascade.

AGQ 201.58 +3.95
SDS 25.08 +0.59

20110805 1104

DOW 11,337.89 -45.79
NASDAQ 2,530.75 -25.64
SP500 1,193.25 -6.82

AGQ 205.22 +7.59 (+3.84%). Double long silver. Long at 205.5. Trailing stop $5, currently just below low of day.
SLV 38.28 +0.67.

20110805 1047

DOW 11,344.06 -39.62
NASDAQ 2,531.89 -24.50
SP500 1,194.22 -5.85

Stock indices unable to hold small gains, and turning into negatives. Re-entering short with less leverage.

SDS 24.76 +0.27. Double short SP500. Long at 24.74. Trailing stop .50.

20110805 1006

DOW 11,351.52 -32.16
NASDAQ 2,519.28 -37.11
SP500 1,191.41 -8.66

Big market decline yesterday with big volume. This morning after opening higher, markets moving lower. In the future, much lower prices are setting up.

BGU 59.25 -1.15. Sold at 58.77 for for 11.16 per share loss. Day stop from Wednesday had expired and a new trailing stop was not entered and was away from the markets Thursday. Lesson about trailing stops (re)learned.

20110803 1458

DOW 11,852.69 -13.93
NASDAQ 2,685.96 +16.72
SP500 1,255.34 +1.29

BGZ 39.64 -0.08. Stopped out at 39.53 for .43 per share loss.
BGU 69.91 +0.21. Bought at 69.93. Tailing stop 1.1.

20110803 1440

DOW 11,821.21 -45.41
NASDAQ 2,678.81 +9.57
SP500 1,251.44 -2.61

Indices not moving higher to hold gains, and starting to roll lower.

MWJ 42.66 -0.29. DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X. Trailing stop sold at 42.68 for .46 per share loss.
BGZ 39.77 +0.05. DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X. Long at 39.97. Trailing stop .5.

20110803 1406, MDW MWJ

DOW 11,855.98 -10.64
NASDAQ 2,683.64 +14.40
SP500 1,255.32 +1.27

MDW 2.51 -0.06. Has been a nice run with this miner stock and for the metals. Sold at 2.51 for 1.86 per share gain.
MWJ 42.96 +0.01. DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X. Bought small position at 43.14. Trailing stop .50.

20110802 PM

Dow 11,866.62 -265.87. Sold off into the close.
Nasdaq 2,669.24 -75.37
SP500 1,254.05 -32.89
10-YrBond 2.62% -0.12

General index buy, for a bounce, did not materialize. Politicians must be nervous and QE3 is nearing. European indices sharply lower. Swiss Franc sharply higher.

^TYX 3.92 -0.15 (3.73%). Treasury Yield 30 Years. Yield below 4%.

GLD 161.52 +3.80
SLV 39.82 +1.53
PTM 20.91 +0.01
XLE 74.21 -2.12
XLF 14.34 -0.40
VXX 23.97 +1.56

F 11.85 -0.50 (4.05%). 52 week range 10.95 - 18.97.
GM 27.05 -1.02 (3.63%). 52 week range 27.02 - 39.48.
MDW 2.57 +0.05
SLV 39.82 +1.53 (+4.00%). At 3PM broke strongly above day high of 39.25 to shoot higher. Closed into highs of day.

20110802 1141, SLV

DOW 12,024.95 -107.54
NASDAQ 2,720.76 -23.85
SP500 1,272.43 -14.51

If the lows hold, may go long a general index.

SLV 39.19 +0.90. Sold at 39.2 for .3 per share gain.
MDW 2.58 +0.06. Put on wide 10% trailing stop.

20110801 PM

Dow 12,132.49 -10.75
Nasdaq 2,744.61 -11.77
SP500 1,286.94 -5.34
30-yrBond 4.07% -0.06

Stock indices opened higher and sold off for a couple hours, before recovering.
Likely federal debt ceiling increase this evening.

GLD 157.72 -0.57
SLV 38.29 -0.56
PTM 20.9 +0.14. Relative strength in metals.
XLE 76.34 -0.11
XLF 14.75 -0.04
VXX 22.41 -1

GM 28.07 +0.39. 52 week range 27.31 - 39.48.
MDW 2.52 +0.14 (+5.88%). MIDWAY GOLD CORP. 52 week range 0.39 - 2.89.
Z 30.22 -2.00 (6.21%). Zillow, Inc. Recent IPO. 52 week range 30.17 - 60.00.

20110729 Weekend

Dow 12,143.24 -96.87
Nasdaq 2,756.38 -9.87
SP500 1,292.28 -8.39
30-yrBond 4.13% -0.13

GLD 158.29 +0.97
SLV 38.85 +0.09
PTM 20.76 -0.14
XLE 76.45 -0.77
XLF 14.79 -0.04
VXX 23.41 -0.43

Dollar lower.
Oil at 95.86 had 7th week below 100.
Gold at all-time record high. Weekly gold close above 1650 will be very bullish (watch copper). Gold had second largest monthly incurease (largest monthly increase was November 2009). Metals could pull back after politic fiscal issues are settled.
Silver also closed higher. Look for silver to test 44 in August.

BGU 76.71 -1.38. Attempt to go long for Monday morning rally was stopped out.
MDW 2.38 -0.02
SLV 38.85 +0.09

20110729 1308

Dow 12,167.84 -72.27
Nasdaq 2,760.34 -5.91
SP500 1,294.96 -5.71
30-yrBond 4.18% -0.08

Stock indices unable to get traction higher.

SLV 38.84 +0.08. Needs to hold 38.8. Considering holding over the weekend for a Sunday night / Monday morning pop to 41.

20110729 1255, SLV

Dow 12,173.89 -66.22
Nasdaq 2,761.96 -4.29
SP500 1,295.56 -5.11
30-yrBond 4.1810% -0.0760

SLV 38.86 +0.1. Bought at 38.9 for day trade. Set .5 day trailing stop.

20110729 1208, BGU

Dow 12,175.59 -64.52
Nasdaq 2,763.09 -3.16
SP500 1,297.33 -3.34
30-yrBond 4.19% -0.07

BGU 77.42 -0.67. Stopped out at 77.73 for .7 per share loss.

20110729 1110, BGU

Dow 12,230.69 -9.42
Nasdaq 2,776.43 +10.18
SP500 1,302.37 +1.70
30-yrBond 4.18% -0.08

Playing a equity bounce. Metals may have put in their high for the day.

BGU 78.19 +0.10. Bought at 78.43. Day trailing stop $1.

MDW 2.47 +0.07

20110728 PM, MDW

Dow 12,240.11 -62.44. Below 12,200 may set off deeper slide.
Nasdaq 2,766.25 +1.46
SP500 1,300.67 -4.22. June 1262 and 1249 are tomorrow.
10-YrBond 2.95% -0.03

Political wrangling about debt ceiling continues before the supposed August 2 budget deadline. When this resolves, there could be a relief rally with correspondent selling of safe-haven metals. Wanted to lighten up on metals before this news event.

MDW 2.40 +0.08 on light volume. Midway Gold Corp. Day range 2.29 - 2.41. 52 week range 0.38 - 2.41. Sold 1/3 at 2.37 for 1.72 gain (260%).

RBY 4.17 +0.96 (29.91%). Rubicon Minerals. 52 week range 3.17 - 6.34. News of AEM making investment.
AEM 56.83 -3.43 (5.69%). Agnico-Eagle Mines. Going to 50.

20117026 PM

Dow 12,501.30 -91.50
Nasdaq 2,839.96 -2.84
SP500 1,331.94 -5.49
10-YrBond 2.95% -0.05

GLD 157.77 +0.43
SLV 39.89 +0.58
PTM 21.11 +0.25
XLE 79.03 -0.38
XLF 15.19 -0.02
VXX 22.00 +0.48

Poor action on the major stock indices. Another strong showing by gold and silver. Dollar dramatically lower.

BAC 10.00 -0.01
MMM 89.93 -5.14
UPS 71.59 -2.46. Could be indicating nationwide economic weakness.

20110722 Weekend

Dow 12,681.16 -43.25
Nasdaq 2,858.83 +24.40
SP500 1,345.02 +1.22
10-YrBond 2.96% -0.05

GLD 156.12 +1.29
SLV 39.07 +0.76
PTM 20.99 +0.18

XLE 79.73 +0.40
XLF 15.32 -0.04
VXX 20.73 -0.15

Gold closed above 1600 and silver closed above 40.

Dan Norcini said, "Only in America in the age of hedge fund computer algorithms could we get an upside reaction in stocks and a downside reaction in gold on news that the US could get the greenlight to plunge itself ever deeper into a morass of indebtedness as its financial condition further deteriorates ... Excuse me for not becoming part of the cheerleading crowd who equate more indebtedness with a good thing."

20110715 Weekend, 1764 "five figure gold"

Dow 12,479.73 +42.61
Nasdaq 2,789.80 +27.13
SP500 1,316.14 +7.27. Close of 1316+ is great for the bulls, though intraday strong open and weak close lifts the bear's spirits.
10-YrBond 2.91% -0.04

While some key stocks had been breaking down, headline indices have powered higher. Metals higher with gold (quietly) powering to a new high.
I had dinner with a couple who are worth $10M+. I mentioned how in 2007 I started accumulating bullion to prudently diversify. He said he has no physical precious metals. He had no interest in bullion and said he would stay in the stock market. When people like him start buying bullion, the last stage blast-off will will begin. This may be several years (or a big event) away.

Barron's Vito J. Racanelli timidly says the recent European bank stress tests were a fraud: "From a sector point of view, what's the value of a stress test that doesn't really stress the subject? For a test to be credible, it must be stressful. In the event there is a disorderly Greek debt default or even an orderly one, it's a good bet that these tests will prove less than indicative about the European banking system's overall ability to withstand the fallout."

Important numbers from Jim Sinclair's interview at King World News: "The key to all of this is $1,764 and you will go above that level, but what that does is lock in five figures on the price of gold. A move above $1,764 brings into focus prices as high as $12,000, so we are are approaching the most critical milestone in the entire gold bull market."

GLD 155.2 +0.66
SLV 38.24 +0.83
PTM 20.57 -0.05
XLE 76.86 +2.01
XLF 14.85 -0.03
VXX 23.16 -0.22

GBG 2.18 +0.04. Great Basin Gold Ltd. 52 week range 1.67 - 3.32.

20110708 Weekend

Dow 12,657.20 -62.29
Nasdaq 2,859.81 -12.85
SP500 1,343.80 -9.42
10-YrBond 3.02% -0.13

GLD 150.25 +1.10
SLV 35.75 +0.25
PTM 20.24 -0.17
XLE 76.89 -0.65
XLF 15.46 -0.20
VXX 20.35 +0.24

Lousy jobs report with government claiming unemployment at 9.2%. John Williams of ShadowStats.com says the real unemployment is 22.7%. The excuse of the March tsunami in Japan is wearing thin.
Both gold and silver had nice gains this week. Gold closed at 1542 and silver closed at 36.5. Gold broke above resistance of 1530. Watching 1550 next week.

Barron's had a guest commentary by Daniel Griswold "Beneficiaries of Trade: You and Me". Mr. Griswold cited statistics without mentioning how GDP is pushed higher by deficit spending (partly on war that provides nothing back home). He apparently assumes foreigners will always want to exchange the dollars they receive for US Treasury debt. Current trends show foreigners are quickly diversifying from US Treasury debt to gold and silver. If foreigners don't but the debt, the Federal Reserve will have to increase purchases to keep interest rates manageable. The current deficits and import/export balance is unsustainable at current interest rates.

VRNT 37.92 +0.48. 52 week range 19.63 - 38.10.

20110617 Weekend

Dow 12,004.36 +42.84
Nasdaq 2,616.48 -7.22
SP500 1,271.50 +3.86
10-YrBond 2.9440% +0.0035

GLD 149.94 +0.97
SLV 34.95 +0.30
PTM 20.54 -0.04

XLE 71.68 -0.44
XLF 14.89 +0.08
VXX 25.24 -0.50

Gold futures margins were lowered by CME. Silver futures margins were higher than gold and were not changed.

While many USA States have larger deficits than Greece, all eyes this week were on Greece. Alan Greenspan said, “The chances of Greece not defaulting are very small.”

RIMM 27.75 -7.58 (21.45%). Intraday 52 week low. Technically oversold. Fundamentally presented roadmap to use new operating system on handsets in a year.

20110615 PM

Dow 11,897.27 -178.84
Nasdaq 2,631.46 -47.26
SP500 1,265.42 -22.45
10-YrBond 2.9730% -0.0126

GLD 149.12 +0.45
SLV 34.88 +0.21
PTM 20.81 -0.23

XLE 72.02 -1.69
XLF 14.73 -0.32
VXX 24.43 +1.91 (8.48%)

Dollar 75.53 +1.06. Big move higher on euro weakness.
Considering dramatic move higher in dollar, metals held up very well.

Consumer Price Index numbers were released today. Higher numbers surprised some people, while the lower and middle class workers and those on fixed incomes are well aware of higher prices for necessities.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey numbers released today were poor and confirm an economic slowdown. Until the real issues are fixed (such as recognizing and defaulting debt), liquidity from the Fed only delays resolution of the problems.

Some market commentators are calling for stagflation. In February 2008 Ron Paul said he expects an "inflationary depression". For the average American, Ron Paul was right.

201106013 PM

Dow 11,952.97 +1.06. After last week, 12k is now resistance.
Nasdaq 2,639.69 -4.04
SP500 1,271.83 +0.85
10-YrBond 2.99% +0.00

GLD 147.77 -1.47
SLV 33.87 -1.38
PTM 21.11 -0.33

XLE 72.17 -1.16
XLF 14.98 +0.15
VXX 23.24 +0.38

DX-Y.NYB 74.58 +0.07. US Dollar Index Futures Cash.

CEF is still at a negative premium of 2.9% (the March 29 share offering that dropped the price). This could be time to buy at a discount, anticipating recovey of the historical 7% premium.

Kitco was raided by Canadian tax authorities:
The gold at Kitco is unallocated and thus can be attached by Canadian tax authorities. Anyone with paper unallocated metal, in any firm, should take delivery.

Zerohedge shows the Federal Reserve used QE2 to bail out insolvent foreign banks. The Federal Reserve, a private banking cartel, is obviously not working for the people of the USA. Has your Representative co-sponsored HR 459, The Audit the Fed Bill to the 112th Congress?

20110606 PM, JAG

Dow 12,089.96 -61.30
Nasdaq 2,702.56 -30.22
SP500 1,286.17 -13.99
10-YrBond 3.0020% +0.0050

Another down day tomorrow will set up a nice bounce.

DX-Y 74.01 +0.31. US Dollar Index Futures Cash

GLD 150.48 +0.26
SLV 35.71 +0.37
PTM 21.22 -0.09

XLE 73.56 -1.70
XLF 14.93 -0.29. 52 week range 13.29 - 17.20.
VXX 22.75 +0.38

JAG 4.64 -0.32 (6.45%). Jaguar Mining Inc Ordinary Shar. 52 week range 4.11 - 10.35. Setting up long-term buy.

Mining political risk:
California extends ban on gold prospectors.

Peru experienced political risk over the weekend (new President):
SCCO 30.86 -3.86 (11.12%). Southern Copper Corp. Huge downside volume to close at lows of day. 52 week range 25.65 - 50.35.
PAAS 30.79 1.57 (4.85%). Pan American Silver Corp. After initial gap down this morning, there were buyers that took price to nearly break-even. Sold off and closed at lows of day.

20110520 Weekend

Dow 12,512.04 +93.28
Nasdaq 2,803.32 +19.99
SP500 1,333.27 +10.33
30-yrBond 4.30% +0.00

GLD 147.49 +1.84
SLV 34.18 -0.08
PTM 20.76 -0.00

XLE 74.63 -0.09
XLF 15.72 -0.22
VXX 22.76 +0.22

Dollar index 75.43 +.31.

Bill Cara had a great weekend review article recently. In part:

This is a time, when capital markets are not free, i.e., when the public sector is in control of the private sector, that astounding events occur, such as political uprisings and revolutions. On the one hand, you have people who want to be free and on the other you have people who want to organize them, for good reasons or bad.

This is also a time when there are waves of activity, first when Interventionist policy tries to lift the value of assets, trying to bring them closer in line with the liabilities. This is the so-called risk-on trade. But, after a while, the system of finance and economics gets stressed as commodity prices start getting out of hand, exerting sufficient pressure on costs of living that people start taking power into their own hands. As a result, the policy of the Interventionists is changed to try to reduce the liabilities in the system by forcing creditors in their jurisdiction to write off debt, once again trying to bring assets in line with liabilities.

...

The next wave will be pressure to reduce liabilities. Central banks and credit markets will tighten. Asset prices will drop. Reserve requirements for the banks will be raised. Margin requirements at the futures exchanges will be raised. Commodity and equity prices will fall and HB&B [Humungous Bank & Broker] will be sending out more margin calls. More banks will fail.
[USD will strengthen.]

GS 134.99 -4.35. The Goldman Sachs Group. 52 week range 129.50 - 175.34.
LNKD 93.09 -1.16. LinkedIn Corporation. IPO this week. Very high valuation.

20110506 Weekend

Dow 12,638.74 +54.57
Nasdaq 2,827.56 +12.84
SP500 1,340.20 +5.10
30-yrBond 4.30% +0.01

Euro and dollar had little movement, in relation to wdespread commodity pullback. Watching dollar to see if it confirms commodity sell off with rising dollar.

Precious metals sharply lower (though rose into the weekend). Silver pummeled. In past two weeks, COMEX made multiple moves to raise silver margin requirements 80%. (Approximately) per contract from $11,000 to $21,000. Many brokers have increased margin requirements even higher. Silver is still in backwardation (indication of severe physical supply problem for immediate delivery). Pullbacks during backwardation are buying opportunities. Gold is not in backwardation.

Oil lower which put strength in the airlines. Will the airlines remove the ticket price fuel surcharge quickly or slowly?

Friday jobless numbers were presented as positive, though overall unemployment increased. The birth/death model continues to be used to manipulate employment numbers.

Treasury Department exempts forex markets from regulation. Didn't we learn in 2007 that derivatives contributed to the financial meltdown?

GLD 145.30 +1.83
SLV 34.48 +0.75
PTM 20.93 +0.25

XLE 74.80 +0.33
XLF 16.11 +0.08
VXX 24.84 -0.51

ECUXF 0.74 +0.04. ECU SILVER MINING.

20110421 Weekend

Dow 12,505.99 +52.45
Nasdaq 2,820.16 +17.65
SP500 1,337.38 +7.02
10YrBond 3.40% +0.00
Oil 112.29 +0.84. Cost push inflation will work through the economy, squeezing margins and then squeezing consumers.

GLD 146.74 +0.24
SLV 45.535 +1.414
PTM 21.32 +0.2199

XLE 78.98 +0.36
XLF 16.10 +0.09
VXX 24.88 -0.77

Short trading week.
The dollar tested 73 and closed down at 74.06. The dollar is sick, though due for a bounce.
May silver contract closed at 46.06. Highest close since 1980. After hours silver continued higher to 46.61.
Gold up 6.50 to close at 1,503.20.
Miners were again outpaced by the metals, with some miners closing in the red.

20110420 PM

Dow 12,453.54 +186.79
Nasdaq 2,802.51 +57.54
SP500 1,330.36 +17.74
30-yrBond 4.4540% +0.0270

Precious metals higher. Silver made large percentage gain to close at 44.5. The intraday high in 1980 was 49.45.
Oil fractionally higher.
Dollar collapsed and is at 74.35 after hours. Look for a $1 bounce that will force later-comer commodity longs to sell.

GLD 146.5 +0.57
SLV 44.12 +1.12
PTM 21.10 +0.36

XLE 78.62 +1.81
XLF 16.01 +0.04
VXX 25.65 -1.12. Complacency.

Continuous Commodity Index closed at an all time high.









SLW 41.7 -1.17. Miner with relative weakness.

20110419 PM, Dollar Below 75

Dow 12,266.75 +65.16
Nasdaq 2,744.97 +9.59
SP500 1,312.62 +7.48
10YrBond 3.3560% -0.0150

Dollar closed below 75.
Oil closed up, at 108.15.
Silver closed at 43.92, up .92. Mining shares continue to lag precious metals.

GLD 145.93 +0
SLV 43 +0.58
PTM 20.73 -0.25

XLE 76.81 +0.77
XLF 15.97 +0.05
VXX 26.77 -1.36

20110418 PM

Dow 12,201.59 -140.24
Nasdaq 2,735.38 -29.27
SP500 1,305.14 -14.54
30-yrBond 4.45% -0.01

PMs didn't sharply move higher on S&P caution on USA debt. Is this really news? Nice recovery day by silver, though both gold and silver are overbought. Gold 1500 and silver 43.6 are important levels to test tomorrow.

GLD 145.93 +0.88
SLV 42.42 +0.58
PTM 20.99 +0.04

XLE 76.04 -1.15
XLF 15.92 -0.22
VXX 28.13 +0.58

Miner covered calls that were sold last month expired worthless over the weekend.
GPL 4.01 -0.07. Increased long position by 1/3 at 3.92 today.

CSCO 16.73 -0.30. 52 week low.
LLEN 7.41 +0.76 (11.43%). L & L Energy, Inc. Looks for 9.05 then 10.

20110415 Weekend

Dow 12,341.83 +56.68
Nasdaq 2,764.65 +4.43
SP500 1,319.68 +5.16
10-YrBond 3.41% -0.08

WTI crude oil touched 110 intraday. Futures margins were increased Thursday, with little apparent impact.

Gold broke through 1478, which it had tested several times. Closed at 1485. Expect a fight around 1510. Big private money is buying physical gold:

The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second-largest U.S. academic endowment, took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion and is storing the bars in a New York vault, according to the fund’s board.

Silver was strong in 42s and closed at 42.53. Continuing to climb higher after hours into 43s. Watch how it tests and handles 44 early next week. Silver price is stretched and any catalyst, such as a futures margin increase, could precipitate a sharp pull back.
Trader Dan describes why miners have been lagging metal ETFs. This pricing discrepancy allows huge miners more time to buy the juniors.
This US Mint 5 coin 90% silver set is offered at 41.95. The silver content, at spot price of 43.05, is worth 38.92. 2011 United States Mint America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set

Markets are closed this upcoming Friday.

GLD 145.05 +1.24
SLV 41.84 +0.77
PTM 20.95 -0.11

XLE 77.19 +0.63
XLF 16.14 +0.01
VXX 27.55 -0.64

20110414 PM

Dow 12,285.15 +14.16. Nice recovery from morning lows. Day range 12,163.86 - 12,305.58.
Nasdaq 2,760.22 -1.30
SP500 1,314.52 +0.11
10-YrBond 3.49% +0.02

Dollar rallied overnight and sold off in the morning. On watch for a dollar rebound, though it is very sick. Below 74.17 and the bottom drops out of the dollar. BRIC countries are agreeing to bypass the dollar in their trading, thus reducing dollar demand.

GLD 143.81 +1.91
SLV 41.07 +1.50
PTM 21.07 +0.26

XLE 76.56 +0.52
XLF 16.13 -0.15
VXX 28.19 -0.24

While the broad universe of trading vehicles is down, silver continues to chug higher. Corporate shill Barron's last weekend said "silver will tarnish". The powers that be had been able to naked short and talk down silver. They are losing control of this inflation indicator. Anna Raff wrote, "Silver prices broke through $40 an ounce on Friday, but the long rally may be coming to an end." Instead of asking if silver will tarnish, Anna should ask how far silver will rocket.

Bolivia is nationalizing mines. Bolivia is a big silver producer. A couple miners with Bolivian properties:
CDE 31.08 -2.68 (7.94%). Big volume.
PAAS 37.35 -3.74 (9.09%) . Big volume.









TKRFF 0.67 +0.02. Tinka Resources Ltd. Started small position of this speculative low-volume exploration miner. This is mad money, that is not a safe investment.

20110412 1536

Dow 12,256.42 -124.69
Nasdaq 2,740.35 -31.16
SP500 1,312.53 -11.93
30-yrBond 4.58% -0.06

GLD 141.425 -1.21
SLV 38.97 -0.24
PTM 20.73 -0.29

Gold and silver are stabilizing around prices from last Thursday/Friday. Short term metals traders may want to start a partial long position.

20110408 Weekend

Dow 12,380.05 +29.44
Nasdaq 2,780.42 +15.72
SP500 1,328.17 +5.34
30-yrBond 4.63% -0.01

Dollar making lower lows and lower highs. Holding just above 75.0. 74.17 is a key level, which breached will drop to 72. Below 72 and there is a waterfall risk and collapse. Short term the dollar is due for a bounce.
WTI oil closed at 113.05.
Money moving from bonds into equities. Commodities continue to run higher. Silver jumped higher and the strength is targeting 50. Everyone wants a silver pullback opportunity to buy with both hands. Gold is shaking off it's sluggishness, though is still outpaced by silver. Some miners surged higher and settled into nice gains at the close.

The hand-wringing about a potential federal government shut down was energy poorly spent. They agreed to reduce spending by reducing spending by an unremarkable and inconsequential $38 billion. This story did entertain the info-consumers and distract them from real issues, such as continued escape of radiation in Japan and the dollar sinking.

In this week's Barron's Alan Abelson parrots the line of the controlled media that inflation is nowhere to be found Where Did All the Bears Go?:
"... inflation doesn't stack up as all that immediately threatening."
"For he appears to be auditioning for the role of the Don Quixote of central bankers, attacking the phantom windmills of inflation."
Inflation is not a problem for someone who doesn't eat, doesn't heat a home, doesn't drive a car, and doesn't buy insurance. The middle class and working poor are in the process of being wiped out by higher food and energy costs, and Alan Abelson talks about "phantom" inflation.

The Federal Reserve is also staffed by aliens who don't eat or use energy:
"We're likely to continue to see a moderate pace of inflation," Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said at a business conference."

Real Americans are discovering rising prices:
"The government says inflation is low, but that's not what I'm seeing at the grocery story," Jorge Alberto, an 88-year-old retiree in Miami ..."

GLD 143.66 +1.15
SLV 39.86 +1.13
PTM 21.21 +0.30

XLE 79.72 +0.28
XLF 16.46 -0.15
VXX 28.918 +0.54

VGZ 3.81 -0.11. With metals up, this had poor price action on light volume. Sold at 3.84 for .04 per share gain.

Current mining longs:
EXK 12.37 +0.47
GPL 4.30 +0.18
MDW 2.13 +0.09
OKOFF 2.76 -0.04
RTRAF 1.97 +0.00
UXG 9.58 +0.17

JJC 59.81 +1.18. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.

20110405 PM

Dow 12,393.90 -6.13
Nasdaq 2,791.19 +2.00
SP500 1,332.63 -0.24
10-YrBond 0.33% 0.00

Indices were higher and closed near unchanged.
Gold made an all-time high. Silver is a rocket looking to test 40. The lower-priced miners, which had been going nowhere while the metals climbed, finally climbed higher with some nice percentage gains.
Brent oil made a 2.5 year high at 122. WTI oil closed down slightly at 108. This divergence will resolve, likely to the upside for WTI oil.

GLD 142.05 +2.21
SLV 38.34 +0.76
PTM 21.06 +0.09

XLE 80.28 +0.24
XLF 16.50 -0.01
VXX 28.29 -0.51

MDW 2.12 +0.27 (14.6%)
EXK GPL UXG. Hedged these long positions by selling April covered calls.

AAPL 338.89 -2.30. Nasdaq 100 announced it will rebalance to reduce Apple from 20% to 12%. This weekend we mentioned Apple was showing weakness. Who had prior knowledge of this announcement?

20110401 Weekend

Dow 12,376.72 +56.99
Nasdaq 2,789.60 +8.53
SP500 1,332.41 +6.58
30-yrBond 4.49% -0.02

Dollar closed down at 75.82. Metals and commodities higher.
Silver closed at 37.83 with very strong price action into the close. Resistance at 38. Next week look for 38.18 with 39.30 being a "stretch" target price.
Oil higher at 108.31.
Housing price crash continues.
The Federal Reserve bailed out Libya's central bank for $35 billion in 2009 and 2010. In 2011 Libya suddenly became an enemy. This makes no sense and the Federal Reserve is a fraud on the American people.
Michael Santoli, in the March 26 Barron's, chooses to use a disparaging quote about metals, "... this suggests that the precious-metals rally is poised to enter a new phase, one featuring broad public interest in owning soft, shiny, not terribly useful metals." Will Santoli quote anyone calling dollars "green filthy paper coupons"?

GLD 139.20 -0.66
SLV 36.86 +0.09
PTM 20.82 +0.07

XLE 79.99 +0.24
XLF 16.53 +0.14
VXX 29.09 -0.28

CELM 2.91. Chinese stock implosion.







AAPL 344.56 -3.95. Surprisingly weak price action on Friday.







EXK 9.75 -0.07. 52 week range 3.07 - 10.33. Endeavor created two videos about mining silver.

20110325 Weekend

Dow 12,220.59 +50.03
Nasdaq 2,743.06 +6.64
SP500 1,313.80 +4.14
10-YrBond 3.44% +0.04

Margin was increased 4X on futures on Japanese stock market. This may reduce severity of some recent wild swings.
Portugal is next Eurpean country in line for a bailout.

Gold new all-time high.
Silver touched 38 closing week with nearly $2 gain. Margin was increased on silver futures exchange. Am looking to hedge some long miner positions by selling calls.
Copper has made a head and shoulders pattern. Some will keep an eye on this.
Oil closed at 105.52. Pump prices headed into $4 territory.
After trading in 75s, dollar closed week at 76.16.

USA housing prices continue to fall. Look for another 20% decline before bargains will be widespread. This will take at least another few years. Rising interest rates could accelerate the time frame.

GLD 139.26 +0.04
SLV 36.39 +0.27
PTM 20.58 -0.10

XLE 78.69 +0.70
XLF 16.34 +0.05
VXX 30.37 -0.04

UUP 21.88 +0.14. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish. This two year chart speaks for itself. It will bounce ... somewhere.







GG 48.90 +0.03
UXG 8.48 -0.06
VGZ 3.87 -0.03

20110323 1110

DJIA 11,996.38 -22.25
NASDAQ 2,667.96 -15.91
SP500 1,287.37 -6.40

Early weakness in the indices is useful for the bull case.

Gold and silver have broken above resistance. There could be explosive moves higher the next week.

RTRAF 2.55 +0.01. Took another nibble at 2.51.

20110321 PM

Dow 12,036.53 +178.01
Nasdaq 2,692.09 +48.42
SP500 1,298.38 +19.18
30-yrBond 4.45% +0.02

Indices gapped higher and ran higher in the first half hour. Stagnate the remainder of the day. Precious metals higher. Some miners sharply higher.

GLD 139.14 +0.77
SLV 35.30 +1.03 (3.01%)
PTM 20.56 +0.47 (2.34%)

XLE 77.68 +2.29 (3.04%)
XLF 16.34 +0.07
VXX 32.67 -2.69 (7.60%)

ANO 1.22 +0.11 (9.91%)
MDW 1.86 +0.14 (8.14%)

RTRAF 2.65 +0.24 (10.0%). Romarco Minerals Inc. Started a small tracking position at 2.60.
VGZ 3.86 +0.62 (19.14%)

20110321 1426

DJIA 12,034.71 +176.19
NASDAQ 2,691.96 +48.29
SP500 1,298.14 +18.94

After morning ramp higher, indices have flat-lined for the past few hours.

VGZ 3.71 +0.4700 (14.5%). Vista Gold Corp. Outperforming other miners, which are also higher.

20110321 1342

DJIA 12,034.18 +175.66
NASDAQ 2,688.13 +44.46
SP500 1,297.17 +17.97

Dollar lower. Precious metals and oil higher.

RTRAF 2.60 +0.19. Romarco Minerals Inc. Started a small tracking position at 2.60.

20110318 Weekend, Romarco Minerals, Tinka Resources

Dow 11,858.52 +83.93
Nasdaq 2,643.67 +7.62
SP500 1,279.20 +5.48
10-YrBond 3.28% +0.03

Japanese tsunami and nuclear problems continue. Big volatility. The US Dollar no longer seems to be the must-have safe haven item.

GLD 138.37 +1.40
SLV 34.27 +0.76
PTM 20.09 +0.17

XLE 75.39 -0.35
XLF 16.27 +0.23
VXX 35.36 -1.12


Mining long shots:
R 2.46 +.06. Romarco Minerals Inc. Toronto Stock Exchange. 52 week range 1.530 - 2.880.
TKRFF 0.48 +0.05. TINKA RESOURCES LTD. 52 week range 0.12 - 0.54.

20110316 PM

Dow 11,613.30 -242.12
Nasdaq 2,616.82 -50.51
SP500 1,256.88 -24.99
30-yrBond 4.39% -0.08

GLD 136.24 -0.03
SLV 33.37 -0.24
PTM 19.85 -0.10

XLE 73.75 -1.20
XLF 15.90 -0.30
VXX 37.63 +2.89

Continuing uncertainty in ability to safely shut down damaged nuclear power plants in Japan. Japanese Yen has been strengthening due to expectation of Japan selling their US Treasury debt holdings and repatriating Yen for reconstruction purposes. When will Japan's central bank intervene to weaken the Yen?
FXY 123.71 +1.46. CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust. Big volume. Multi-year high.
YCL 34.52 +0.80. ProShares Ultra Yen. Illiquid.
YCS 15.05 -0.38. ProShares UltraShort Yen.

The March 5 issue of Barron's had several book reviews. I was struck by Richard A. Epstein's defense of financial fraud:

The guarantee offered by the clearinghouses will itself become a potential source of systemic risk, and putting these trades into an exchange straitjacket could hamper financial innovation

Clearinghouses have multiple benefits, some of which are:
transparent price quotes;
nightly mark-to-market;
margin calls;
clearinghouse guarantee of performance.

Without clearinghouses, we are left with a promise that may be backed by nothing. AIG's insurance-like promises had no financial backing without a reasonable means to perform, and were therefore fraudulent. Mr. Epstein's view that a clearinghouse would hamper "financial innovation" is simply cheer leading for more financial fraud at the expense of the American taxpayers.

20110311 Weekend

Dow 12,044.40 +59.79
Nasdaq 2,715.61 +14.59
SP500 1,304.28 +9.17

Large Japanese earthquake and resulting tsunami.

Dollar closed at 76.73, down .51. Considering the turmoil around the world, it appears the US dollar is less of a safety play than years past.
Friday morning gold tested and rejected 1405. Metals dip buyers were in action today. This close above 1400 indicates a consolidation. Friday morning silver tested and rejected 34. Silver had a nearly $2 price range today! The silver shorts had better have been covering today, as this dramatic price swing in silver sets up a possible quick run to $40 is possible. A consolidation in silver is more likely.
Gold resistance is 1422 then 1435. Silver resistance, as demonstrated in the last hour of trading today, is 36 then 36.75.

Equities and commodities sold off before the open Thursday and gapped down in the regular trading session, trapping many who were long.

GLD 138.22 +0.45
SLV 35.03 +0.67
PTM 20.85 +0.17

XLE 75.11 +1.28
XLF 16.54 +0.11
VXX 33.01 -0.91


Barron's magazine this week tries to spin the fact that the Federal Reserve is the largest holder of US government debt.

Completely ignores the Fed:

Treasuries Slip on Japan Fears By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
"Japan is the second-largest holder of Treasury securities, with $882 billion at the end of 2010, following China's $1.16 trillion, according to U.S. Treasury data."

Uses the word "foreign" to exclude the Fed. The actions of the Fed will not be invisible, "foreign" or not:

Stocks Fall 1% on the Week as Momentum Flags By KOPIN TAN
"It doesn't help that Japan, the second-largest foreign buyer of U.S. debt, might now sell a portion of its $1 trillion stash in U.S. bills to help fund reconstruction after its worst earthquake on record."

20110309 PM

Dow 12,213.09 -1.29
Nasdaq 2,751.72 -14.05
SP500 1,320.02 -1.80
10-YrBond 3.47% -0.08

Copper and cotton are pulling off their highs.
Some miners had sharp pullbacks from their recent highs.

GLD 139.41 +0.05
SLV 35.27 +0.09
PTM 21.14 -0.06

XLE 76.62 -0.53
XLF 16.77 -0.00
VXX 32.25 +0.44

20110308 PM

Dow 12,214.38 +124.35
Nasdaq 2,765.77 +20.14
SP500 1,321.82 +11.69
30-yrBond 4.66% +0.05

Dollar higher.
Stock indices were slightly lower then turned positive to recover yesterday's sell off. This is strong price action.

GLD 139.36 -0.36
SLV 35.18 -0.05
PTM 21.20 -0.17

XLE 77.15 -0.64
XLF 16.77 +0.36
VXX 31.81 -0.68

EXK 9.94 -0.26. Early weakness to test Monday's opening gap higher. Quick bounce off those lows, stabilized, and now looks good. Went long at 9.78 this morning. Stop at morning low of 9.34. Expect further price choppiness. This afternoon sold March 10 covered calls at .45.
GPL 4.87 -0.09
MDW 2.25 -0.14. Bought at 2.22 before close.
OKOFF 2.68 -0.09
UXG 7.94 -0.19
VGZ 3.74 -0.11

GOLD 73.75 -3.26. Randgold Resources Ltd. Potential buy after regional instability subsides.
JDSU 25.38 -0.11. Down 10% after hours. Has high volume high at 29.12. Potential buy at 17.5 in a couple months.

20110307 PM

DJIA 12,090.03 -79.85
NASDAQ 2,745.63 -39.04
SP500 1,310.13 -11.02
30-yrBond 4.61% +0.01

Dollar tested 76.15 then recovered to close at 76.48. This pressured commodities.

GLD 139.72 +0.37
SLV 35.23 +0.54
PTM 21.37 -0.48

XLE 77.79 -0.55
XLF 16.41 -0.11
VXX 32.49 +0.83

GPL 4.96 +0.41 (9.0%). News of increased resources.
NUGT 36.85 -0.49. Day range 36.62 - 38.41. Sold at 36.88 for 1.18 per share loss. Trailing stop sold this position today.
OKOFF 2.77 -0.09. Bought at 2.89.
UXG 8.13 +0.07
VGZ 3.85 +0.18. Bought at 3.8.

EXK 10.20 +0.86 (9.2%)
MDW 2.39 +0.27 (12.74%). Closed at three year high.
TRE 6.35 -0.15

20110307 AM

Overnight metals are higher. Gold +6 and silver +.76. Silver is making another huge move higher.

Monday will see some miners with 10% upside moves.


Entered trailing stops for GPL and NUGT.
Entered order to sell covered calls on UXG.

Entered orders to buy EXK OKOFF VGZ.
EXK 9.34. Endeavour Silver Corporation. Very strong price action.

Watching TRE for potential entry in the coming weeks.

20110304 Weekend, Miners

Dow 12,169.88 -88.32
Nasdaq 2,784.67 -14.07
SP500 1,321.15 -9.82
10-YrBond 3.49% -0.08

Stock indices recovered half of the daily losses in the last half hour.
Dollar was slightly down at 76.4 and oil was slightly up at 104.42.

Silver closed at 35.67. 6th week higher. Up $2 this week. Next stop is $36.
Moving out of volatile silvers and into less volatile golds has had the anticipated effect of less volatility. Gold upside has also been less than silver.

Oil closed at nearly 105 per barrel. CME raised futures margins on oil and gasoline contracts. Will this slow the ascent of oil or just a pause to refresh the bulls?

GLD 139.35 +1.26
SLV 34.69 +1.28
PTM 21.85 +0.22

XLE 78.34 -0.50
XLF 16.52 -0.21
VXX 31.66 +0.78

GPL 4.55 +0.40 (9.64%). Will there be profit taking at 5? If silver pulls this higher early in week, will lighten up.
NUGT 37.34 +0.50
UXG 8.06 +0.21

SIMG 9.60 +0.24. Mid-week jump higher.
ZAGG 8.37 -0.12. Recovered part of the mid-week loss.

Miners, some speculative:
CEM.V 0.26 -0.03. Constantine Metal Resources Ltd.
CNSNF 0.2725 -0.0206. CONSTANTINE METAL RES LTD COM.

EXK 9.34 +1.00 (11.99%). Endeavour Silver Corp. Multi-year high. Buy on pull back to low 8s.
GRS 8.99 +0.09. GAMMON GOLD INC. Buy on a pull back, target 11+.
MDW 2.12 +0.21 (10.99%)
OKOFF 2.86 +0.09. ORKO SILVER CORP.
PGXPF 0.80 -0.01. PELANGIO EXPL INC. 52 week range 0.14 - 1.29.
SVM 14.53 +0.55. SILVERCORP METALS INC. Intraday 52 week high. Buy on pull back.
TRE 6.50 -0.06

20110302 PM

DOW 12066.80 +8.78
NASDAQ 2748.07 +10.66
SP500 1308.44 +2.11
10Yr.T-Note 3.464% +0.5

For the bulls, the indices made a nice recovery. Uncertainty with oil supplies couldn't keep the indices down.

GLD 139.92 -0.11
SLV 33.84 -0.03
PTM 21.92 +0.09

XLE 77.51 +0.44
XLF 16.39 +0.10
VXX 32.53 -0.08

Gold and silver were lower, then found a bid to close with a tiny loss. The dips are being bought.

GPL 4.31 -0.21. Sold 1/2 of the long position today to lock in gains. Day range 3.96 - 4.76. Looked over the cliff and turned higher. Support at 3.5.
NUGT 37.94 +0.06
UXG 8.01 +0.05

SIMG 9.69 +1.72 (21.58%). Silicon Image, Inc.
ZAGG 7.07 -2.23 (23.98%). ZAGG Incorporated.

20110302 1238

DJIA 12,070.17 +12.15
NASDAQ 2,751.30 +13.89
SP500 1,308.56 +2.23

Indices were slightly red and have recovered.

WTI Crude Oil above 101 (+2%). This will push pump prices to $4/gallon and slow economic recovery while pushing higher prices into products that are dependent on transportation.

GPL 4.11 -0.41. Trailing stop sold 1/2 of the long position at 4.07 for 1.19 per share gain. A close below 4 will find more selling down to 3.50.

Gold positions started yesterday:
NUGT 38.26 +0.38
UXG 8.08 +0.12