2100324 PM, Dollar, Bond Implosion

Dow 10,836.15 -52.68
Nasdaq 2,398.76 -16.48
SP500 1,167.72 -6.45
10-YrBond 3.83% +1.49

Dollar was up over a point, and US indices and metals were down. More reports of European troubles with Portugal's debt downgraded. Consider if Portugal is like a State of the EU, what happens when debt of States of the USA are downgraded?
Huge down move in USA long-term debt. Interest rates higher will hurt housing market because loans will be less affordable.
If gold holds 1070, then it has set up a nice base to move higher. A test of 1025 is possible.

GLD 106.25 -2.07
SLV 16.30 -0.42
PTM 18.84 -0.32

XLE 57.05 -0.30
XLF 15.91 +0.01
VXX 22.08 +0.57

MVG 7.76 +0.11 Mag Silver Corp. 52 week high. Look to buy pullback.

TLT 89.27 -1.66. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond. Down on big volume. Pushing into lows from last May.

20100323 PM

Dow 10,888.83 +102.94
Nasdaq 2,415.24 +19.84
SP500 +1,174.17 +8.36
30-yrBond 4.60% +0.29

GLD 108.26 +0.51
SLV 16.71 +0.11
PTM 19.23 +0.21

XLE 57.25 +0.12
XLF 15.88 +0.11

VXX 21.31 -0.62
FXP 8.22 -0.10

ANO 1.44 +0.13
EXK 3.34 +0.10
NGD 4.50 -0.02

SBUX 25.41 +0.17. Bought at 25.13. Earnings Thursday.

20090322 PM, Health Insurance Stocks Pop

DJIA 10,785.89 +43.91
NASDAQ 2,395.40 +20.99
SP500 1,165.81 +5.91

Federal Congress passed bill to move toward more socialized medicine. Health care stocks surged higher. The bill will take several years to implement (2014), and at some time before implementation I expect health care stock prices to drop significantly when the market realizes that healthy people will simply stop paying for health insurance and take the small penalty. Healthy people will save paying the huge premium increases, and will simply buy insurance if they get sick because pre-existing conditions will not be denied.

Indices opened down with dollar higher. Dollar sold off and indices went up. If Euro holds here, our indices will go higher.
Gold close below 1070 is bearish.

RAX 19.00 -0.40
SBUX 25.24 +0.27. Earnings Thursday.
WYNN 76.54 +4.79 (6.68%). Intraday 52 week high.

HMA 9.05 +0.92 (11.32%). Health Management Associates Inc.
THC 6.27 +0.52 (9.04%). Tenet Healthcare Corp.
UHS 36.59 +2.13 (6.18%). Universal Health Services Inc.

20090322 1135, SBUX

DJIA 10,767.38 +25.40
NASDAQ 2,386.39 +11.98
SP500 1,162.44 +2.54

Yesterday, Sunday evening, Congress passed a contentious health insurance bill. Dollar opened higher and markets and metals sold off. The dollar has reversed course and indices are higher with metals regaining some of the lost ground.

GLD 107.46 -0.82
SLV 16.468 -0.182
PTM 18.95 -0.19

XLE 56.9801 -0.2999
XLF 15.72 +0.03
VXX 22.149 -0.193

SBUX 25.18 +0.21. Day range 24.35 - 25.20. Earnings Thursday. 52 week high of 25.66 was set last week.

20100320 Weekend, SQIFF

Dow 10,741.98 -37.19
Nasdaq 2,374.41 -16.87
SP500 1,159.90 -5.92
10-YrBond 3.69% +0.15

Dollar higher. Metals lower. Indices sold off for first couple hours, sold off sharply at 3PM, then sellers entered at 3:30PM.

GLD 108.37 -1.97
SLV 16.65 -0.43
PTM 19.13 -0.37

XLE 57.30 -0.67
XLF 15.69 -0.10

VXX 22.22 +0.14
FXP 8.28 +0.11

NGD 4.49 -0.10. Sold partial long position at 4.65 early in week for .52 per share gain.

CNSL 18.65 -0.21. Intraday 52 week high.

SQIFF 0.517 -0.012. Watch for buy after pullback.
RBY 4.23 -0.04
ANO 1.34 -0.02
EXK 3.22 -0.00
SLW 15.39 -0.44
TRE 4.15 +0.06

20090317 PM

Dow 10,733.67 +47.69
Nasdaq 2,389.09 +11.08
SP500 1,166.21 +6.75. Expect strength to continue unless this closes below 1160.
30-yrBond 4.57% -0.21

Metals marking time. Gold is OK unless it gets below 1000.
Gas closing above 83 will bring higher prices.

GLD 109.59 -0.81
SLV 17.08 +0.03
PTM 19.46 -0.06

XLE 59.06 +0.64
XLF 15.92 +0.19
VXX 22.39 -0.78

20090312 Weekend, Dollar Liquidity Growth

Dow 10,624.69 +12.85
Nasdaq 2,367.66 -0.80
SP500 1,149.99 -0.25
30-yrBond 4.63% -0.26

GLD 107.95 -0.65
SLV 16.76 -0.05
PTM 19.209 +0.019

XLE 58.50 +0.03
XLF 15.54 -0.06
VXX 23.85 -0.23

The Prudent Speculation blog covered an interesting article on money growth/contraction and asset price growth/contraction.

20090310 PM

Dow 10,567.33 +2.95
Nasdaq 2,358.95 +18.27
SP500 1,145.61 +5.17
30-yrBond 4.69% +0.12

Considering the dollar was down, gold and silver had a dramatic sell-off.

GLD 108.47 -1.248. Can go down two points.
SLV 16.65 -0.27
PTM 19.07 +0.09. Showed it's relative strength compared to gold and silver.

XLE 58.57 +0.51
XLF 15.47 +0.17. Can continue higher.
VXX 23.87 +0.08

GBG 1.72 -0.01. Watch for a long-term buy.
TWM 20.98 -0.37. UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares. 52 week low with volume.
VLO 20.52 +0.99. Broke out.

20100309 PM

Dow 10,564.38 +11.86
Nasdaq 2,340.68 +8.47
SP500 1,140.44 +1.94
30-yrBond 4.68% +0.05

GLD 109.72 -0.16
SLV 16.92 +0.03
PTM 18.98 -0.18
XLE 58.06 0.00
XLF 15.30 +0.05
VXX 23.79 +0.24

ANO 1.47 -0.06. Started small position at 1.49.

TSTC 19.07 -1.49 (7.25%). Telestone Technologies Corp. Watch list for a buy.

20100308 PM

Dow 10,552.52 -13.68
Nasdaq 2,332.21 +5.86
SP500 1,138.50 -0.19
30-yrBond 4.67% +0.33

GLD 110.09 -0.72
SLV 16.97 -0.04
PTM 19.1085 +0.3185

XLE 58.07 -0.08
XLF 15.27 +0.05
VXX 23.89 -0.12

Platinum is strongest precious metal, followed by gold. Silver is the weakest. This relationship should hold for a few weeks. Gold is bullish if it stays above 1100.

ANO 1.53 +0.11 (7.75%). 52 week high on good volume.
BBW 6.61 +0.15. Potential short if it tests 6.78 and fails to close over it with good volume.

20090305 Weekend

Dow 10,566.20 +122.06
Nasdaq 2,326.35 +34.04
SP500 1,138.69 +15.72
30-yrBond 4.64% +0.83

Markets higher on light volume. Markets and metals look to go higher over next few weeks.

GLD 110.81 -0.02
SLV 17.01 +0.22
PTM 18.79 +0.00

XLE 58.15 +1.07
XLF 15.22 +0.29
VXX 24.01 -1.00

ANO 1.42 +0.19 (15.45%). 52 week high on big volume. Going for 1.82 soon.
EXK 3.71 +0.10
NGD 4.78 +0.19

AAPL 218.95 +8.24. 52 week high on good volume.
PNRA 78.04 +4.00 (5.40%). Panera Bread Co. 52 week high on good volume.

20090303 PM

Dow 10,396.76 -9.22
Nasdaq 2,280.68 -0.11
SP500 1,118.79 +0.48
30-yrBond 4.59% +0.17

Indices opened higher and moved higher, sold off into negative territory, and closed mostly flat.

GLD 111.63 +0.61
SLV 16.82 +0.26
PTM 18.80 +0.05

XLE 57.38 +0.25
XLF 14.78 +0.01
VXX 25.25 -0.10

EXK 3.56 +0.10. Hedged part of position by selling calls.
NGD 4.55 +0.01

FXB 150.47 +1.36

20100302 PM

Dow 10,405.98 +2.19
Nasdaq 2,280.79 +7.22
SP500 1,118.31 +2.60
10-YrBond 3.61% +0.08

After trying to push higher in the morning, dollar closed down. Commodities up.

GLD 111.13 +1.70
SLV 16.62 +0.51
PTM 18.75 +0.28

XLE 57.16 +0.50
XLF 14.76 +0.04
VXX 25.30 -0.34

EXK 3.46 +0.16
NGD 4.54 +0.09

SQIFF 0.343 +0.047 (15.68%). Silver Quest Resources.


Murdoch pimps the idea that the slightly above average who read the Wall Street Newstainment Journal should feel like insiders and get short the euro/pound.

Hedge Funds Try 'Career Trade' Against Euro
... The big bets are emerging amid gatherings such as an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC. During the dinner, hosted by a boutique investment bank at a private townhouse in Manhattan, a small group of all-star hedge-fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity"—or equal on an exchange basis—with the dollar ...

Sure, it's a "career trade" and the little guys should bet the house on something like FXB. When Murdoch pretends to let the little guys in, it's time to step back and look for a trap.
FXB 149.11 -0.31. CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Tr.

20100301 PM

Dow 10,403.79 +78.53
Nasdaq 2,273.57 +35.31
SP500 1,115.71 +11.22
10-YrBond 3.61% +0.11

GLD 109.56 +0.13
SLV 16.13 +0.06
PTM 18.47 +0.12

XLE 56.68 +0.54
XLF 14.72 +0.04
VXX 25.51 -0.78

EXK 3.30 +0.02
NGD 4.44 +0.05

EVOGF 0.965 +0.095 (10.89%). Evolving gold. Watch how it closes above 1.

F 12.41 +0.67 (5.71%). 52 week range 1.65 - 12.14. Decent volume.
QCOM 35.56 -1.12. 52 week range 32.64 - 49.80. Going for year low.
SNDK 32.63 +3.48 (11.94%). 52 week range 7.53 - 32.08. Decent volume.