20091029 PM

Dow 9,962.58 +199.89
Nasdaq 2,097.55 +37.94
SP500 1,066.11 +23.48
10-YrBond 3.50% +0.09

The anticipated bounce arrived with dollar lower and metals higher. Expect market to continue higher tomorrow.


The shift away from dollars continues as the Fed's self-imposed end of quantitative easing approaches on October 30 (tomorrow).

Saudi Arabia moves away from pricing oil in dollars:
"Saudi Arabia on Wednesday decided to drop the widely used West Texas Intermediate oil contract as the benchmark for pricing its oil, dealing a serious blow to the New York Mercantile Exchange."

Turkey moves away from using trading commodities in dollars:
"Turkey is switching to national currencies in trade with Iran and China, ending dependence on the U.S. dollar and the euro for about 20% of its commodity turnover, local media reported on Wednesday."


GLD 102.70 +1.97
SLV 16.39 +0.53
PTM 16.04 +0.30

XLE 57.60 +1.66
XLF 14.72 +0.57

RBY 4.20 +0.25. Rebound to close back over 4.

EXK 2.78 +0.32. Big percentage price rebound.
FXP 8.52 -0.39

20091028 PM

Dow 9,762.69 -119.48
Nasdaq 2,059.61 -56.48
SP500 1,042.63 -20.78
10-YrBond 3.41% -0.0510
Dollar 76.452 +.317. Another big move up.

Significant technical damage to the uptrends. Those looking for a bounce will be looking to buy tomorrow.

GLD 100.81 -1.04
SLV 15.87 -0.47
PTM 15.69 -0.13

XLE 55.93 -1.92
XLF 14.12 -0.48

RBY 3.95 -0.19

FXP 8.94 +0.62
GDX 41.87 -2.60. Some volume on the downside.

20091027 PM

Dow 9,882.17 +14.21
Nasdaq 2,116.09 -25.76
SP500 1,063.41 -3.54
10-YrBond 3.46% -0.0920
Dollar 76.184 +.123

Some second-tier and smaller companies are reporting earnings and gapping down.
Huge 100+B of US debt is being issued this week.
Expecting metals to close higher on Friday. If they don't close higher Friday, then tighten stops.

GLD 101.91 +0.05
SLV 16.35 -0.44
PTM 15.85 -0.21

XLE 57.83 +0.49
XLF 14.60 -0.11

RBY 4.13 +0.05. Most miners were down.

PVTB 9.65 -2.33. In two days this is back to prices from March.

20091027 1127

Dow 9,919.13 +51.17
Nasdaq 2,131.62 -10.23
SP500 1,067.79 +0.84
10-YrBond 3.52% -0.0360
Dollar 76.195 +.134

Dollar up, gold up, silver down (trying to move higher), platinum down.

One word: divergence

RBY 4.12 +0.04

20091026 PM

Dow 9,867.96 -104.22
Nasdaq 2,141.85 -12.62
SP500 1,066.95 -12.65
10-YrBond 3.55% +0.0790

Indices have been down past two days.
Dollar ramped up (around noon) to 76. Metals and indices did a corresponding dive. Miners had big percentage losses.
The large CRE, Capmark, filed for bankruptcy over the weekend.

GLD 101.83 -1.66
SLV 16.80 -0.60
PTM 16.04 -0.39

XLE 57.34 -0.96
XLF 14.72 -0.38

ANO 0.7850 -0.0550
FXP 8.31 +0.17
RBY 4.07 -0.29

UUP 22.58 +0.15. Stochastics up and volume way up. Double dollar.

EXK 2.75 -0.22
NGD 3.83 -0.27
SLW 13.00 -0.92
TRE 3.08 -0.10

20091023 Weekend

Dow 9,972.18 -109.13
Nasdaq 2,154.47 -10.82
SP500 1,079.60 -13.31
30-yrBond 4.289% +0.04
Dollar 75.468 +.011. Dollar had a late-day comeback on Friday after touching 74s.
UUP 22.43 +0.12

Metals held their ground and the moving averages are "catching up to each other" - getting closer together. Expecting a move, though which way is dependent on the dollar.

GLD 103.49 -0.43
SLV 17.40 +0.08
PTM 16.43 -0.06

XLE 58.30 -1.15
XLF 15.10 -0.22

AMZN 118.49 +25.04 (26.80%)

20091019 PM

Dow 10,092.19 +96.28
Nasdaq 2,176.32 +19.52
SP500 1,097.91 +10.23. Can soon test 1150s.
30-yrBond 4.217% -0.03

For the year, oil is at the high and the dollar is at the low.

GLD 104.22 +1.04
SLV 17.44 +0.26
PTM 16.45 +0.12

XLE 59.76 +0.77. Price of energy is increasing.
XLF 15.28 +0.06

RBY 4.68 +0.08. A close over 5 and this launches much higher.

GBG 1.66 +0. Potential long as this is setting up to launch higher.

20091016 Weekend, HOG

Dow 9,995.91 -67.03
Nasdaq 2,156.80 -16.49
SP500 1,087.68 -8.88
30-yrBond 4.247% -0.066

The year-old Treasury program to backstop money market funds has ended. The money markets had invested considerable funds in mortgage backed security debt. The losses were causing some funds to "break the buck" which means net asset value dropped below $1. Funds were flowing out of money markets. Treasury backstopped the funds. Now the Treasury backstop is expiring, so expect some risk-averse money to move into CDs and Treasuries. This movement will put demand on Treasuries, thus increasing the prices and reducing the effective interest rates.

GLD 103.18 +0.32
SLV 17.18 +0.12
PTM 16.33 -0.13

XLE 58.99 -0.18
XLF 15.22 -0.37

CNSL 15.07 -0.34. Quickly coming off highs. Has a great dividend.
HOG 27.86 +0.17. 52 week high. Has had a nice run. Waiting to short at higher prices.

20091015 PM

Dow 10,062.94 +47.08
Nasdaq 2,173.29 +1.06
SP500 1,096.56 +4.54
10-YrBond 3.47% +0.0470

GLD 102.94 -1.24
SLV 17.07 -0.49
PTM 16.34 -0.04

XLE 59.17 +1.21
XLF 15.55 -0.18

RBY 4.67 -0.08

EXK 3.04 -0.14
FXP 8.27 +0.05

20091014 PM

Dow 10,015.86 +144.80
Nasdaq 2,172.23 +32.34
SP500 1,092.02 +18.83. Apparently heading for 1130s.
10-YrBond 3.42% +0.1110

DOW closed over round number 10,000 with light volume.
Financial earnings (courtesy of bailouts and mark-to-myth) are beating expectations.
While the Fed, the Treasury, and the Executive speak of their desire for a strong dollar, the dollar continued lower.
Bonds lower.
Commodities and most metals higher.

GLD 104.18 -0.08
SLV 17.55 +0.07
PTM 16.36 +0.05

XLE 58.01 +1.00
XLF 15.70 +0.49. Going higher.

AGQ 65.48 +0.62. With indices and metals continuing to move up, went long this double long silver. Silver is always volatile (vs. gold), and double long silver will be more so.
ANO 0.91 +0.04
RBY 4.76 +0.04. 52 week high. Like other equities with prices going higher, the volume is a little light. All time high, so there are blue skies above.

EXK 3.19 +0.02. Intraday 52 week high and closed a penny lower.
FXP 8.24 -0.61
QID 21.92 -0.63. Sold for loss today.

NGD 4.45 -0.01
SLW 14.57 +0.33
TRE 3.07 -0.02

20091014 1408

Dow 9,994.17 +123.11
Nasdaq 2,165.57 +25.68
SP500 1,088.18 +14.99
10-Yr Bond 3.38% +0.07

GLD 104.63 +0.37
SLV 17.62 +0.14
PTM 16.45 +0.14

AGQ 66.07 +1.21. Just spiked to daily highs. Earlier today went long today at 65.51.

20091014 1322

Dow 9,997.57 +126.51
Nasdaq 2,166.79 +26.90
SP500 1,088.49 +15.30
10-YrBond 3.39% +0.0760

The dollar at 75.5 continues to drop.
Metals continue to go higher.
A year after the significant equity downdraft, there will be many equities setting 52 week highs. While this may not have much meaning, it may have mental sway of "new highs new highs" which may keep money in the markets.


GLD 104.41 +0.15
SLV 17.62 +0.14
PTM 16.45 +0.14

XLE 57.75 +0.74
XLF 15.62 +0.41

RBY 4.75 +0.03. 52 week high on light volume.

QID 22.02 -0.53. Stopped out for .70 per share loss on large position.

EXK 3.1552 +0.0147. Made 52 week on light volume and giving up the price.

20091013 PM

Dow 9,871.06 -14.74
Nasdaq 2,139.89 +0.75
SP500 1,073.19 -3.00
10-YrBond 3.31% -0.07

GLD 104.46 +0.90
SLV 17.49 +0.01
PTM 16.31 +0.21

XLE 56.96 +0.04
XLF 15.27 -0.09

RBY 4.72 +0.04. 52 week high.
FXP 8.85 -0.12

AONE 23.40 +1.40
CNSL 15.66 -0.43. Selling volume still apparent.
EXK 3.1699 +0.0699. 52 week range 0.75 - 3.29.

20091012 PM

Dow 9,885.80 +20.86
Nasdaq 2,139.14 -0.14
SP500 1,076.19 +4.70
30-yrBond 4.228% +0.001

Light trading on a bank holiday.

GLD 103.56 +0.72
SLV 17.48 +0.04
PTM 16.10 -0.01

XLE 56.92 +0.76
XLF 15.36 +0.12

EXK 3.10 +0.08. Sold at 3.14 this morning.
RBY 4.68 +0.11. Considered selling a partial position in the afternoon because volume was light at these highs. There is no resistance above, so price can continue higher. 52 week high and all-time high.

DRIV 26.45 -13.97. Massive volume.
GOLD 72.51 -0.70. 52 week range 22.28 - 76.08. Look to buy ~64.
CNSL 16.48 -0.82. Down on some volume.

20091012 AM

DJIA 9,909.83 +44.89
NASDAQ 2,147.88 +8.60
SP500 1,078.77 +7.28

Dollar is weak, though appears it will be able to hold the 76s.

GLD 103.62 +0.78
SLV 17.50 +0.06
PTM 16.24 +0.13

EXK 3.15 +.13. Sold this morning at 3.14 for .32 per share gain.

20091009 Weekend, Lithium

Dow 9,864.94 +78.07
Nasdaq 2,139.28 +15.35
SP500 1,071.49 +6.01
30-yrBond 4.227% +0.133

Dollar was up and indices up, which is a change to the recent dollar/equity movement.
Apparently the Fed bought all/most of Thursday's auction. With so many people bearish on the dollar, it may be time to position for a dollar rally.

Divergence of dollar to equities raises caution about being overly long metal stocks. Copper may have put in a top and be headed lower.

GLD 102.84 -0.80. Made new highs this week.
SLV 17.44 -0.08. Failed to make new highs this week.
PTM 16.11 -0.05. Failed to make new highs this week.

XLE 56.16 -0.05
XLF 15.24 +0.13

ANO 0.89 +0.0191
EXK 3.02 -0.01. Stayed long because volume down was light today. Considering closing this long position.
QID 22.66 -0.26
RBY 4.57 +0.01. Stayed long because volume down was light today. 52 week high made this week. Strong chart.

AEM 71.66 -0.11. Strong miner equity with sizeable numbers of shorts. Big volume on down days. If there is a miner to short, this may be it.
CNSL 17.30 +0.18. 52 week high set this week, again.
FXP 8.79 -0.08
KOG 2.57 +0.03. Consolidating for potential move higher.
STAR 29.11 +1.32. 52 week high.
XLU 29.25 +0.18

The S&P 500's P/E ratio is at an extraordinarily high 122. Further cost reductions through downsizing could lead to good (beating estimates) reported profits and a higher P/E in the short term.





Barron's story on lithium miners highlighted several names. The article very briefly put forward the idea that electric battery cars would drive demand for lithium which is used in high-capacity batteries.
... over half of the world's lithium output comes from mines in Chile and Argentina run by Sociédad Quimica y Minera de Chile (ticker: SQM); Chemetall Foote, a subsidiary of Rockwood Holdings (ROC); and FMC (FMC).
... IN ARGENTINA. Dozens of junior exploration companies and speculative investors are betting big on the lithium-brine deposits there. ... speculative position in two lithium leaders in the region, Orocobre (ORE.Australia) and Latin American Minerals (LAT.Canada).

20091008 PM

DJIA 9,786.87 +61.29
NASDAQ 2,123.93 +13.60
SP500 1,065.48 +7.90

Dollar went to 75.68 intraday. Metals higher with gold at new highs.
Tomorrow will consider taking some profits in miners EXK and RBY.

GLD 103.50 +1.14
SLV 17.51 +0.26
PTM 16.18 +0.14

XLE 56.13 +1.33
XLF 15.11 +0.02

EXK 3.03 +0.06
QID 22.92 -0.20. Bought the other half position this morning at 22.74.
RBY 4.56 +0.12. 52 week high.

CNSL 17.12 +0.19. 52 week high.
FXP 8.83 -0.36

20091008 1114

DJIA 9,792.16 +66.58
NASDAQ 2,127.97 +17.64
SP500 1,066.50 +8.92

Dollar lower (below 76) and metals higher.

QID 22.77 -0.35. Put on other 1/2 of this position at 22.74.

RBY 4.56 +0.115. 52 week high.

CNSL 17.15 +0.22. Another 52 week high.

20091007 PM

Dow 9,725.58 -5.67
Nasdaq 2,110.33 +6.76
SP500 1,057.58 +2.86
10-YrBond 3.18% -0.0730

Light volume all around.
Consumer credit numbers were reported and were down. Tomorrow the retail numbers are due and it appears they will be terrible.

GLD 102.45 +0.17
SLV 17.29 +0.21
PTM 16.05 +0.15

XLE 54.78 +0.40
XLF 15.12 +0.19

RBY 4.43 +0.09
QID 23.12 -0.12

CNSL 16.93 +0.10. 52 week high.

20091006 PM

Dow 9,731.25 +131.50
Nasdaq 2,103.57 +35.42
SP500 1,054.72 +14.26
10-YrBond 3.25% +0.0240

Yesterday indices went higher. Today indices gapped higher and continued higher, stalled and retraced to near the gap area, then rebounded. Dollar lower on news that Gulf states are looking to price oil in other currencies, and metals higher. Gold set an all time high, even after last weekend's WSJ article Gold Is Still a Lousy Investment that ignored the value of gold in deflationary environments.

GLD 102.13 +2.31
SLV 17.07 +0.69
PTM 15.90 +0.36

XLE 54.40 +1.28
XLF 14.92 +0.18. Lagged today.

QID 23.24 -0.86. Started 1/2 position in this double short. Looking to take other 1/2 position later this week.
EXK 3.00 +0.25 (9.09%). Big volume. 52 week high 3.29.
RBY 4.34 +0.18. 52 week high 4.45.

AAPL 190.01 +3.99
AONE 22.584 -0.686. New issue in the battery industry.
CNSL 16.83 +0.55. 52 week high.

20091002 Weekend, CNSL KOG XLU

Dow 9,487.67 -21.61
Nasdaq 2,048.11 -9.37
SP500 1,025.21 -4.64
30-yrBond 4.011% +0.052

Indices gapped lower then quickly moved higher when the dollar turned down. After a few down days, was/am looking for some bounce.

GLD 98.37 +0.48
SLV 15.82 -0.222
PTM 15.37 +0.14

XLE 51.97 -0.27
XLF 14.29 +0.01

ANO 0.8001 -0.0499
EXK 2.62 -0.01
RBY 3.94 -0.01

FXP 10.43 +0.04. Sold in the morning at 10.48 for .36 per share gain.
SDS 42.79 +0.36. Sold in the morning at 42.77 for 3.15 per share loss on a small position.

CNSL 15.88 +0.24. Relative strength. If there are a couple days of market strength next week, look for this to go above recent 52 week of 16.22. Potential scalp or swing trade on the long side.
KOG 2.36 +0.11. Consolidating for possible retest of 2.89.
XLU 28.52 -0.31. Look to short a bounce.

20091001 PM

Dow 9,509.28 -203.00
Nasdaq 2,057.48 -64.94
SP500 1,029.85 -27.23
30-yr Bond 3.959% -0.089

Dollar decisively above 77.11 and looks to go higher. This will move metals and stocks lower.
Indices opened slightly lower, moved lower then consolidated, and went lower into the close. Looks to go lower. May want to lighten up shorts on Friday (FXP, SDS).
Metals were down and miners were down more. Looks to go lower.

GLD 97.89 -0.96
SLV 16.04 -0.34
PTM 15.23 -0.38

XLE 52.24 -1.68
XLF 14.28 -0.66