Sunday, October 11, 2009

20091009 Weekend, Lithium

Dow 9,864.94 +78.07
Nasdaq 2,139.28 +15.35
SP500 1,071.49 +6.01
30-yrBond 4.227% +0.133

Dollar was up and indices up, which is a change to the recent dollar/equity movement.
Apparently the Fed bought all/most of Thursday's auction. With so many people bearish on the dollar, it may be time to position for a dollar rally.

Divergence of dollar to equities raises caution about being overly long metal stocks. Copper may have put in a top and be headed lower.

GLD 102.84 -0.80. Made new highs this week.
SLV 17.44 -0.08. Failed to make new highs this week.
PTM 16.11 -0.05. Failed to make new highs this week.

XLE 56.16 -0.05
XLF 15.24 +0.13

ANO 0.89 +0.0191
EXK 3.02 -0.01. Stayed long because volume down was light today. Considering closing this long position.
QID 22.66 -0.26
RBY 4.57 +0.01. Stayed long because volume down was light today. 52 week high made this week. Strong chart.

AEM 71.66 -0.11. Strong miner equity with sizeable numbers of shorts. Big volume on down days. If there is a miner to short, this may be it.
CNSL 17.30 +0.18. 52 week high set this week, again.
FXP 8.79 -0.08
KOG 2.57 +0.03. Consolidating for potential move higher.
STAR 29.11 +1.32. 52 week high.
XLU 29.25 +0.18

The S&P 500's P/E ratio is at an extraordinarily high 122. Further cost reductions through downsizing could lead to good (beating estimates) reported profits and a higher P/E in the short term.





Barron's story on lithium miners highlighted several names. The article very briefly put forward the idea that electric battery cars would drive demand for lithium which is used in high-capacity batteries.
... over half of the world's lithium output comes from mines in Chile and Argentina run by SociƩdad Quimica y Minera de Chile (ticker: SQM); Chemetall Foote, a subsidiary of Rockwood Holdings (ROC); and FMC (FMC).
... IN ARGENTINA. Dozens of junior exploration companies and speculative investors are betting big on the lithium-brine deposits there. ... speculative position in two lithium leaders in the region, Orocobre (ORE.Australia) and Latin American Minerals (LAT.Canada).

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