Sunday, July 31, 2011

20110729 Weekend

Dow 12,143.24 -96.87
Nasdaq 2,756.38 -9.87
SP500 1,292.28 -8.39
30-yrBond 4.13% -0.13

GLD 158.29 +0.97
SLV 38.85 +0.09
PTM 20.76 -0.14
XLE 76.45 -0.77
XLF 14.79 -0.04
VXX 23.41 -0.43

Dollar lower.
Oil at 95.86 had 7th week below 100.
Gold at all-time record high. Weekly gold close above 1650 will be very bullish (watch copper). Gold had second largest monthly incurease (largest monthly increase was November 2009). Metals could pull back after politic fiscal issues are settled.
Silver also closed higher. Look for silver to test 44 in August.

BGU 76.71 -1.38. Attempt to go long for Monday morning rally was stopped out.
MDW 2.38 -0.02
SLV 38.85 +0.09

Friday, July 29, 2011

20110729 1308

Dow 12,167.84 -72.27
Nasdaq 2,760.34 -5.91
SP500 1,294.96 -5.71
30-yrBond 4.18% -0.08

Stock indices unable to get traction higher.

SLV 38.84 +0.08. Needs to hold 38.8. Considering holding over the weekend for a Sunday night / Monday morning pop to 41.

20110729 1255, SLV

Dow 12,173.89 -66.22
Nasdaq 2,761.96 -4.29
SP500 1,295.56 -5.11
30-yrBond 4.1810% -0.0760

SLV 38.86 +0.1. Bought at 38.9 for day trade. Set .5 day trailing stop.

20110729 1208, BGU

Dow 12,175.59 -64.52
Nasdaq 2,763.09 -3.16
SP500 1,297.33 -3.34
30-yrBond 4.19% -0.07

BGU 77.42 -0.67. Stopped out at 77.73 for .7 per share loss.

20110729 1110, BGU

Dow 12,230.69 -9.42
Nasdaq 2,776.43 +10.18
SP500 1,302.37 +1.70
30-yrBond 4.18% -0.08

Playing a equity bounce. Metals may have put in their high for the day.

BGU 78.19 +0.10. Bought at 78.43. Day trailing stop $1.

MDW 2.47 +0.07

Thursday, July 28, 2011

20110728 PM, MDW

Dow 12,240.11 -62.44. Below 12,200 may set off deeper slide.
Nasdaq 2,766.25 +1.46
SP500 1,300.67 -4.22. June 1262 and 1249 are tomorrow.
10-YrBond 2.95% -0.03

Political wrangling about debt ceiling continues before the supposed August 2 budget deadline. When this resolves, there could be a relief rally with correspondent selling of safe-haven metals. Wanted to lighten up on metals before this news event.

MDW 2.40 +0.08 on light volume. Midway Gold Corp. Day range 2.29 - 2.41. 52 week range 0.38 - 2.41. Sold 1/3 at 2.37 for 1.72 gain (260%).

RBY 4.17 +0.96 (29.91%). Rubicon Minerals. 52 week range 3.17 - 6.34. News of AEM making investment.
AEM 56.83 -3.43 (5.69%). Agnico-Eagle Mines. Going to 50.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

20117026 PM

Dow 12,501.30 -91.50
Nasdaq 2,839.96 -2.84
SP500 1,331.94 -5.49
10-YrBond 2.95% -0.05

GLD 157.77 +0.43
SLV 39.89 +0.58
PTM 21.11 +0.25
XLE 79.03 -0.38
XLF 15.19 -0.02
VXX 22.00 +0.48

Poor action on the major stock indices. Another strong showing by gold and silver. Dollar dramatically lower.

BAC 10.00 -0.01
MMM 89.93 -5.14
UPS 71.59 -2.46. Could be indicating nationwide economic weakness.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

20110722 Weekend

Dow 12,681.16 -43.25
Nasdaq 2,858.83 +24.40
SP500 1,345.02 +1.22
10-YrBond 2.96% -0.05

GLD 156.12 +1.29
SLV 39.07 +0.76
PTM 20.99 +0.18

XLE 79.73 +0.40
XLF 15.32 -0.04
VXX 20.73 -0.15

Gold closed above 1600 and silver closed above 40.

Dan Norcini said, "Only in America in the age of hedge fund computer algorithms could we get an upside reaction in stocks and a downside reaction in gold on news that the US could get the greenlight to plunge itself ever deeper into a morass of indebtedness as its financial condition further deteriorates ... Excuse me for not becoming part of the cheerleading crowd who equate more indebtedness with a good thing."

Sunday, July 17, 2011

20110715 Weekend, 1764 "five figure gold"

Dow 12,479.73 +42.61
Nasdaq 2,789.80 +27.13
SP500 1,316.14 +7.27. Close of 1316+ is great for the bulls, though intraday strong open and weak close lifts the bear's spirits.
10-YrBond 2.91% -0.04

While some key stocks had been breaking down, headline indices have powered higher. Metals higher with gold (quietly) powering to a new high.
I had dinner with a couple who are worth $10M+. I mentioned how in 2007 I started accumulating bullion to prudently diversify. He said he has no physical precious metals. He had no interest in bullion and said he would stay in the stock market. When people like him start buying bullion, the last stage blast-off will will begin. This may be several years (or a big event) away.

Barron's Vito J. Racanelli timidly says the recent European bank stress tests were a fraud: "From a sector point of view, what's the value of a stress test that doesn't really stress the subject? For a test to be credible, it must be stressful. In the event there is a disorderly Greek debt default or even an orderly one, it's a good bet that these tests will prove less than indicative about the European banking system's overall ability to withstand the fallout."

Important numbers from Jim Sinclair's interview at King World News: "The key to all of this is $1,764 and you will go above that level, but what that does is lock in five figures on the price of gold. A move above $1,764 brings into focus prices as high as $12,000, so we are are approaching the most critical milestone in the entire gold bull market."

GLD 155.2 +0.66
SLV 38.24 +0.83
PTM 20.57 -0.05
XLE 76.86 +2.01
XLF 14.85 -0.03
VXX 23.16 -0.22

GBG 2.18 +0.04. Great Basin Gold Ltd. 52 week range 1.67 - 3.32.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

20110708 Weekend

Dow 12,657.20 -62.29
Nasdaq 2,859.81 -12.85
SP500 1,343.80 -9.42
10-YrBond 3.02% -0.13

GLD 150.25 +1.10
SLV 35.75 +0.25
PTM 20.24 -0.17
XLE 76.89 -0.65
XLF 15.46 -0.20
VXX 20.35 +0.24

Lousy jobs report with government claiming unemployment at 9.2%. John Williams of ShadowStats.com says the real unemployment is 22.7%. The excuse of the March tsunami in Japan is wearing thin.
Both gold and silver had nice gains this week. Gold closed at 1542 and silver closed at 36.5. Gold broke above resistance of 1530. Watching 1550 next week.

Barron's had a guest commentary by Daniel Griswold "Beneficiaries of Trade: You and Me". Mr. Griswold cited statistics without mentioning how GDP is pushed higher by deficit spending (partly on war that provides nothing back home). He apparently assumes foreigners will always want to exchange the dollars they receive for US Treasury debt. Current trends show foreigners are quickly diversifying from US Treasury debt to gold and silver. If foreigners don't but the debt, the Federal Reserve will have to increase purchases to keep interest rates manageable. The current deficits and import/export balance is unsustainable at current interest rates.

VRNT 37.92 +0.48. 52 week range 19.63 - 38.10.