20110421 Weekend

Dow 12,505.99 +52.45
Nasdaq 2,820.16 +17.65
SP500 1,337.38 +7.02
10YrBond 3.40% +0.00
Oil 112.29 +0.84. Cost push inflation will work through the economy, squeezing margins and then squeezing consumers.

GLD 146.74 +0.24
SLV 45.535 +1.414
PTM 21.32 +0.2199

XLE 78.98 +0.36
XLF 16.10 +0.09
VXX 24.88 -0.77

Short trading week.
The dollar tested 73 and closed down at 74.06. The dollar is sick, though due for a bounce.
May silver contract closed at 46.06. Highest close since 1980. After hours silver continued higher to 46.61.
Gold up 6.50 to close at 1,503.20.
Miners were again outpaced by the metals, with some miners closing in the red.

20110420 PM

Dow 12,453.54 +186.79
Nasdaq 2,802.51 +57.54
SP500 1,330.36 +17.74
30-yrBond 4.4540% +0.0270

Precious metals higher. Silver made large percentage gain to close at 44.5. The intraday high in 1980 was 49.45.
Oil fractionally higher.
Dollar collapsed and is at 74.35 after hours. Look for a $1 bounce that will force later-comer commodity longs to sell.

GLD 146.5 +0.57
SLV 44.12 +1.12
PTM 21.10 +0.36

XLE 78.62 +1.81
XLF 16.01 +0.04
VXX 25.65 -1.12. Complacency.

Continuous Commodity Index closed at an all time high.









SLW 41.7 -1.17. Miner with relative weakness.

20110419 PM, Dollar Below 75

Dow 12,266.75 +65.16
Nasdaq 2,744.97 +9.59
SP500 1,312.62 +7.48
10YrBond 3.3560% -0.0150

Dollar closed below 75.
Oil closed up, at 108.15.
Silver closed at 43.92, up .92. Mining shares continue to lag precious metals.

GLD 145.93 +0
SLV 43 +0.58
PTM 20.73 -0.25

XLE 76.81 +0.77
XLF 15.97 +0.05
VXX 26.77 -1.36

20110418 PM

Dow 12,201.59 -140.24
Nasdaq 2,735.38 -29.27
SP500 1,305.14 -14.54
30-yrBond 4.45% -0.01

PMs didn't sharply move higher on S&P caution on USA debt. Is this really news? Nice recovery day by silver, though both gold and silver are overbought. Gold 1500 and silver 43.6 are important levels to test tomorrow.

GLD 145.93 +0.88
SLV 42.42 +0.58
PTM 20.99 +0.04

XLE 76.04 -1.15
XLF 15.92 -0.22
VXX 28.13 +0.58

Miner covered calls that were sold last month expired worthless over the weekend.
GPL 4.01 -0.07. Increased long position by 1/3 at 3.92 today.

CSCO 16.73 -0.30. 52 week low.
LLEN 7.41 +0.76 (11.43%). L & L Energy, Inc. Looks for 9.05 then 10.

20110415 Weekend

Dow 12,341.83 +56.68
Nasdaq 2,764.65 +4.43
SP500 1,319.68 +5.16
10-YrBond 3.41% -0.08

WTI crude oil touched 110 intraday. Futures margins were increased Thursday, with little apparent impact.

Gold broke through 1478, which it had tested several times. Closed at 1485. Expect a fight around 1510. Big private money is buying physical gold:

The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second-largest U.S. academic endowment, took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion and is storing the bars in a New York vault, according to the fund’s board.

Silver was strong in 42s and closed at 42.53. Continuing to climb higher after hours into 43s. Watch how it tests and handles 44 early next week. Silver price is stretched and any catalyst, such as a futures margin increase, could precipitate a sharp pull back.
Trader Dan describes why miners have been lagging metal ETFs. This pricing discrepancy allows huge miners more time to buy the juniors.
This US Mint 5 coin 90% silver set is offered at 41.95. The silver content, at spot price of 43.05, is worth 38.92. 2011 United States Mint America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set

Markets are closed this upcoming Friday.

GLD 145.05 +1.24
SLV 41.84 +0.77
PTM 20.95 -0.11

XLE 77.19 +0.63
XLF 16.14 +0.01
VXX 27.55 -0.64

20110414 PM

Dow 12,285.15 +14.16. Nice recovery from morning lows. Day range 12,163.86 - 12,305.58.
Nasdaq 2,760.22 -1.30
SP500 1,314.52 +0.11
10-YrBond 3.49% +0.02

Dollar rallied overnight and sold off in the morning. On watch for a dollar rebound, though it is very sick. Below 74.17 and the bottom drops out of the dollar. BRIC countries are agreeing to bypass the dollar in their trading, thus reducing dollar demand.

GLD 143.81 +1.91
SLV 41.07 +1.50
PTM 21.07 +0.26

XLE 76.56 +0.52
XLF 16.13 -0.15
VXX 28.19 -0.24

While the broad universe of trading vehicles is down, silver continues to chug higher. Corporate shill Barron's last weekend said "silver will tarnish". The powers that be had been able to naked short and talk down silver. They are losing control of this inflation indicator. Anna Raff wrote, "Silver prices broke through $40 an ounce on Friday, but the long rally may be coming to an end." Instead of asking if silver will tarnish, Anna should ask how far silver will rocket.

Bolivia is nationalizing mines. Bolivia is a big silver producer. A couple miners with Bolivian properties:
CDE 31.08 -2.68 (7.94%). Big volume.
PAAS 37.35 -3.74 (9.09%) . Big volume.









TKRFF 0.67 +0.02. Tinka Resources Ltd. Started small position of this speculative low-volume exploration miner. This is mad money, that is not a safe investment.

20110412 1536

Dow 12,256.42 -124.69
Nasdaq 2,740.35 -31.16
SP500 1,312.53 -11.93
30-yrBond 4.58% -0.06

GLD 141.425 -1.21
SLV 38.97 -0.24
PTM 20.73 -0.29

Gold and silver are stabilizing around prices from last Thursday/Friday. Short term metals traders may want to start a partial long position.

20110408 Weekend

Dow 12,380.05 +29.44
Nasdaq 2,780.42 +15.72
SP500 1,328.17 +5.34
30-yrBond 4.63% -0.01

Dollar making lower lows and lower highs. Holding just above 75.0. 74.17 is a key level, which breached will drop to 72. Below 72 and there is a waterfall risk and collapse. Short term the dollar is due for a bounce.
WTI oil closed at 113.05.
Money moving from bonds into equities. Commodities continue to run higher. Silver jumped higher and the strength is targeting 50. Everyone wants a silver pullback opportunity to buy with both hands. Gold is shaking off it's sluggishness, though is still outpaced by silver. Some miners surged higher and settled into nice gains at the close.

The hand-wringing about a potential federal government shut down was energy poorly spent. They agreed to reduce spending by reducing spending by an unremarkable and inconsequential $38 billion. This story did entertain the info-consumers and distract them from real issues, such as continued escape of radiation in Japan and the dollar sinking.

In this week's Barron's Alan Abelson parrots the line of the controlled media that inflation is nowhere to be found Where Did All the Bears Go?:
"... inflation doesn't stack up as all that immediately threatening."
"For he appears to be auditioning for the role of the Don Quixote of central bankers, attacking the phantom windmills of inflation."
Inflation is not a problem for someone who doesn't eat, doesn't heat a home, doesn't drive a car, and doesn't buy insurance. The middle class and working poor are in the process of being wiped out by higher food and energy costs, and Alan Abelson talks about "phantom" inflation.

The Federal Reserve is also staffed by aliens who don't eat or use energy:
"We're likely to continue to see a moderate pace of inflation," Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said at a business conference."

Real Americans are discovering rising prices:
"The government says inflation is low, but that's not what I'm seeing at the grocery story," Jorge Alberto, an 88-year-old retiree in Miami ..."

GLD 143.66 +1.15
SLV 39.86 +1.13
PTM 21.21 +0.30

XLE 79.72 +0.28
XLF 16.46 -0.15
VXX 28.918 +0.54

VGZ 3.81 -0.11. With metals up, this had poor price action on light volume. Sold at 3.84 for .04 per share gain.

Current mining longs:
EXK 12.37 +0.47
GPL 4.30 +0.18
MDW 2.13 +0.09
OKOFF 2.76 -0.04
RTRAF 1.97 +0.00
UXG 9.58 +0.17

JJC 59.81 +1.18. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.

20110405 PM

Dow 12,393.90 -6.13
Nasdaq 2,791.19 +2.00
SP500 1,332.63 -0.24
10-YrBond 0.33% 0.00

Indices were higher and closed near unchanged.
Gold made an all-time high. Silver is a rocket looking to test 40. The lower-priced miners, which had been going nowhere while the metals climbed, finally climbed higher with some nice percentage gains.
Brent oil made a 2.5 year high at 122. WTI oil closed down slightly at 108. This divergence will resolve, likely to the upside for WTI oil.

GLD 142.05 +2.21
SLV 38.34 +0.76
PTM 21.06 +0.09

XLE 80.28 +0.24
XLF 16.50 -0.01
VXX 28.29 -0.51

MDW 2.12 +0.27 (14.6%)
EXK GPL UXG. Hedged these long positions by selling April covered calls.

AAPL 338.89 -2.30. Nasdaq 100 announced it will rebalance to reduce Apple from 20% to 12%. This weekend we mentioned Apple was showing weakness. Who had prior knowledge of this announcement?

20110401 Weekend

Dow 12,376.72 +56.99
Nasdaq 2,789.60 +8.53
SP500 1,332.41 +6.58
30-yrBond 4.49% -0.02

Dollar closed down at 75.82. Metals and commodities higher.
Silver closed at 37.83 with very strong price action into the close. Resistance at 38. Next week look for 38.18 with 39.30 being a "stretch" target price.
Oil higher at 108.31.
Housing price crash continues.
The Federal Reserve bailed out Libya's central bank for $35 billion in 2009 and 2010. In 2011 Libya suddenly became an enemy. This makes no sense and the Federal Reserve is a fraud on the American people.
Michael Santoli, in the March 26 Barron's, chooses to use a disparaging quote about metals, "... this suggests that the precious-metals rally is poised to enter a new phase, one featuring broad public interest in owning soft, shiny, not terribly useful metals." Will Santoli quote anyone calling dollars "green filthy paper coupons"?

GLD 139.20 -0.66
SLV 36.86 +0.09
PTM 20.82 +0.07

XLE 79.99 +0.24
XLF 16.53 +0.14
VXX 29.09 -0.28

CELM 2.91. Chinese stock implosion.







AAPL 344.56 -3.95. Surprisingly weak price action on Friday.







EXK 9.75 -0.07. 52 week range 3.07 - 10.33. Endeavor created two videos about mining silver.