20101231 Weekend Year-End

Dow 11,577.51 +7.80
Nasdaq 2,652.87 -10.11
SP500 1,257.64 -0.24

On the markets, almost everyone is a bull. New highs / new lows is not showing the new highs. Look for continued index volatility and consider going long VXX volatility. January 4 is a planet turn date so consider getting short on Monday.
If metals continue higher in 2011, exploration miners and junior miners will go much higher.
Oil made wild move higher back above 90 to close at 91.38. If oil spends more time above $90/barrel, it will push significant cost pressure into transportation and food. Energy continuity and energy affordability will be an underlying theme in 2011, even if it is ignored by the media.

GLD 138.72 +1.69
SLV 30.18 +0.42. 32 year high. A close over 31 the trigger to get long (with leverage) to ride an immediate explosive move higher. Many expectations, that seem reasonable, of $40/oz this year. Commentary from gotgoldreport.com:

In general, when the GSR is trending lower, that is a more bullish than bearish signal by itself. This is the first time, however, since the late 1970s that the fall in the GSR is in connection with either a perceived (at minimum) or an actual (very likely) condition of investor demand being greater than the existing supply of commercial silver bars to satisfy that exploding demand.

In other words, this fall in the gold/silver ratio is possibly different than all the others that occurred in the 1990s and in the last decade. The major difference is that in all the previous declines in the GSR since the 1980 silver collapse there was ample commercial bar silver available to satisfy demand. There is some legitimate question as to whether there is enough supply this time.

PTM 20.92 +0.31

XLE 68.25 +0.10
XLF 15.95 +0.02
VXX 37.61 -0.31. 52 week range 36.31 - 144.88.

ANO 1.63 +0.03. 52 week range 0.82 - 1.78.
GBG 2.96 +0.04. 52 week range 1.55 - 3.04.
MDW 0.84 +0.05. 52 week range 0.38 - 0.95.

CNSNF 0.25 -0.01. CONSTANTINE METAL. 52 week range 0.02 - 0.27. Speculative, high-risk long.
MEA 5.88 +0.23. Metalico Inc. 52 week range 3.07 - 7.09.
SLW 39.04 +1.17 3.09%. 52 week range 13.04 - 42.34.
TLR 1.19 +0.09. Timberline Resources Corp. 52 week range 0.73 - 1.47.
TRE 7.30 +0.02 0.27%. 52 week range 3.35 - 7.32.

SGG 93.55 +4.56. iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN. 52 week range 37.18 - 101.30. Was down 10% yesterday with volume. Today made some recovery today back to near all-time high.
JJC 59.10 +0.82. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN. 52 week range 36.60 - 59.30.

MBI 11.99 +0.12. MBIA Inc. 52 week range 4.05 - 12.62. Higher with volume. Good looking financial.

NENE 1.87 +0.08. New Energy Technologies, Inc. 52 week range 0.35 - 3.29. May be building cause to retest recent high or maybe test 2.50s.


Bob Marley, Three Little Birds


Elton John, Levon

Levon wears his war wound like a crown
He calls his child Jesus
'Cause he likes the name
And he sends him to the finest school in town

Levon, Levon likes his money
He makes a lot they say
Spends his days counting
In a garage by the motorway

He was born a pauper to a pawn on a Christmas day
When the New York Times said, "God is dead
And the war's begun, Alvin Tostig has a son today"

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon

Levon sells cartoon balloons in town
His family business thrives
Jesus blows up balloons all day
Sits on the porch swing watching them fly

And Jesus, he wants to go to Venus
Leaving Levon far behind
Take a balloon and go sailing
While Levon, Levon slowly dies

He was born a pauper to a pawn on a Christmas day
When the New York Times said, "God is dead
And the war's begun, Alvin Tostig has a son today"

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon

20101228 PM

Dow 11,575.54 +20.51
Nasdaq 2,662.88 -4.39
SP500 1,258.51 +0.97
10YrBond(%) 3.4810% +0.1300

Light trading volume. Dollar turned positive. Commodities continue higher. Oil closed at 91.22.

GLD 137.22 +2.20
SLV 29.53 +0.94
PTM 20.73 +0.37

XLE 67.42 +0.25
XLF 16.01 +0.00
VXX 38.93 +0.47

GBG 2.99 +0.09. With gold pushing above 1400, bought this miner at 3.00 for possible retest of 52 week high of 3.32. Keeping a tight stop.
SPXU 19.43 -.04. Trailing stop sold at 19.36 for .64 per share loss.

20101223 Merry Christmas, Ethiopia

Dow 11,573.49 +14.00
Nasdaq 2,665.60 -5.88
SP500 1,256.77 -2.07
30-yrBond 4.4750% +0.0290

Looking to go long precious metals and commodities on any weakness into the New Year.

GLD 134.66 -0.39
SLV 28.61 +0.04
PTM 20.31 -0.12
Copper hit a high of 4.28/lb on Monday. This could mark a top. Copper miner Force majeure

Chile’s giant Collahuasi copper mine, the world’s third largest, has halted shipments indefinitely following an accident at the mine’s ore shipping terminal. ... Mine officials said the mishap had not affected Collahuasi’s actual mining operations ... They said they did not know how long shipments would be suspended. Separately, a port official told Reuters it could take at least a month to repair the damaged loading station.

XLE 67.41 +0.19
XLF 15.87 -0.12

JJC 56.62 -0.41. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.
NGD 9.24 +0.12. 52 week range 3.50 - 10.29. May be basing to retest 52 week high.
SWC 20.65 -0.06. Stillwater Mining Co resumes supplying palladium to GM. 52 week range 8.56 - 22.86.
SDRG 0.1250 0.0150. Silver Dragon Resources Inc. 52 week range 0.07 - 0.46. Volatile.

NENE 1.98 +0.03. New Energy Technologies, Inc. 52 week range 0.31 - 3.29. May be basing.


Article by FOFOA describing a "monetary focal point" and why silver was the "easy money" and gold is the real "hard money".


Gold commentary by Jeff Clark

Surprising perspective of on-the-ground opportunities in Ethiopia.

It is no joke that Ethiopians are now unable to afford buying some of the produce of their own country. Following this last price spike, coffee is almost out of the question for many.
...
One fact alone is that fewer than 1.5 in 100 people in Ethiopia have a cell phone today according to a recent (ITU), International Telecommunications Union report. That is the lowest concentration in all Africa and amongst the lowest anywhere on earth.
...
The country does not yet have its own stock exchange, credit and debit transactions are virtually unknown across the country, few individuals have bank accounts and the banking sector itself is still working through its developmental stage.

20101222 Commodities

Dow 11,559.49 +26.33
Nasdaq 2,671.48 +3.87
SP500 1,258.84 +4.24
30-yrBond 4.4460% +0.0150

GLD 135.05 -0.27
SLV 28.57 -0.07
PTM 20.43 +0.13

XLE 67.22 +0.23
XLF 15.99 +0.17

NBBHYL:IND 8.41 +0.018. TRACE HY Comp Avg Yield to Mat. Moving higher. In 2008 this spiked to 20% before bank financial problems rocked the markets.

Commodity ramp is going strong. Charts from Dan Norcini showing commodities have taken out the 2008 highs.
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/clip_image00219.jpg

Crude oil closed above $90.
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/December2210Crude.pdf

DIG 44.67 +0.23. ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas. Two year high.
JJC 57.03 +0.03. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN. Two year high.
Trader Holds $3 Billion of Copper in London Some see a cup and handle formation in copper.

SPXU 19.42 -0.21. Started a 1/2 long position of this SPX short, and am considering closing the position.



Bill Carleton’s "That’s Why (I’m Mining Gold)"

20101221 PM

Dow 11,533.16 +55.03
Nasdaq 2,667.61 +18.05
SP500 1,254.60 +7.52
30-yrBond 4.4310% -0.0310

GLD 135.32 +0.21
SLV 28.64 -0.07
PTM 20.30 +0.15

XLE 66.99 +0.67
XLF 15.81 +0.27

SPXU 19.63 -0.37

ANO 1.42 +0.05. 52 week range 0.77 - 1.78.
GOLD 84.79 -2.38. Randgold Resources Ltd. South African gold miner. Nearing a six month low. Weakness can be indication of continued dollar strength.
JJC 57.00 +1.02. Tracks copper. 52 week range 36.60 - 57.05.

NENE 2.03 +0.10. Building cause. Potential long.

20101220 1343

DJIA 11,479.08 -12.83
NASDAQ 2,651.67 +8.70
SP500 1,247.38 +3.47

SPXU 20.00 -0.13. Short the SPX. Went long at 20.

20101220 1319

DJIA 11,477.23 -14.68. Showing weakness.
NASDAQ 2,651.72 +8.75. Continued strength.
SP500 1,247.29 +3.38. Retesting opening high. Potential short at this level.

SPXU 20.00 -0.13. ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ProShares.

20101217 Weekend

Dow 11,491.91 -7.34
Nasdaq 2,642.97 +5.66
SP500 1,243.91 +1.04
30-yrBond 4.4090% -0.1730

Mixed week on light volume before Christmas.

Dollar is at 80.36. Consider a long trade for the rest of the year into 82.2.

Longer Treasury bonds melted own on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stick-save rally on Friday. This bounce will likely be shorted.

Copper is controlled 75% by one private speculator in South America. Could be a triple top forming.

Precious metals remain strong.
GLD 134.20 +0.39
SLV 28.51 +0.23
PTM 20.10 +0.05

XLE 65.89 +0.02
XLF 15.53 +0.09. Wikileaks has let us know the banks are insolvent, not just illiquid.

BANKING CRISIS NOW ONE OF SOLVENCY NOT LIQUIDITY SAYS BANK OF ENGLAND GOVERNOR

ANO 1.33 +0.12 (9.92%). Sharp move higher in last ten minutes.
GNCMA 13.37 +0.45. Another 52 week high. 52 week range 5.21 - 13.95.
SAEI .10. Trading suspended. 52 week range 0.03 - 0.93. Froth and fraud in the small gold exploration companies.

TLT 93.24 +1.67. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond.
TBF 44.69 -0.85. ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury.
TBT 38.13 -1.50. ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury.

20101210 Weekend, Irish Financials, Copper

Dow 11,410.32 +40.26
Nasdaq 2,637.54 +20.87
SP500 1,240.40 +7.40
30-yrBond 4.42% +0.02

AIB 1.27 -0.08 (5.93%). Allied Irish Banks PLC. Volatility in Irish financials.

JJC 54.78 +0.70. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN. 52 week high.
NDM.TO 13.55 +2.20 (19.38%). Northern Dynasty Minerals, Ltd. 52 week high.
PCX 19.01 +0.33. Global X Copper Miners ETF. Recently 52 week high.

20101209 1331

DJIA 11,356.66 -15.82
NASDAQ 2,616.48 +7.32
SP500 1,231.28 +3.00

EUO 20.76 +0.09. Sold for 1.35 per share gain.

20101203 Weekend

Dow 11,382.09 +19.68
Nasdaq 2,591.46 +12.11
SP500 1,224.71 +3.18
30-yrBond 4.31% +0.05

Strong week for commodities. Silver took out 30-year highs. Gold had first ever weekly close above 1400. Oil was also higher and closed at 89.44, which will put cost-push price rises into the supply chain.
Sold silver the long and looking to move those funds into small miners, which I expect to outperform.
Federal Reserve released details of lending operations which included foreign companies like BMW and domestic non-financial companies like Harley-Davidson. This shows the Federal Reserve is the world's banker of last resort. The Federal Reserve has become the driving force of the economy.
With the Fed bailout details coming to light, people are becoming more aware of currency debasement which can lead to a crack-up boom. Flight into real goods (Flucht in die Sachwerte) or crack-up boom (Katastrophenhausse).

GLD 138.07 +2.87
SLV 28.60 +0.67
PTM 20.49 +0.11

XLE 65.82 +0.29
XLF 15.18 +0.05

ANO 1.35 -0.02. Average volume.
MDW 0.87 +0.10 (13.36%). 52 week range 0.38 - 1.04. Small miner that is outperforming. Big volume.
SLW 39.31 +1.02
TRE 6.72 +0.09

AGQ 144.57 +6.60 (4.78%). ProShares Ultra Silver. Tested spike on November 9. Taking profits after big run this week. Sold at 144.30 for ~15.86 per share gain.

SLV 28.60 +0.67. 52 week high. Big run this week. Exceeded November 9 spike with tepid volume.

20101124 PM

Dow 11,187.28 +150.91
Nasdaq 2,543.12 +48.17
SP500 1,198.35 +17.62
10-YrBond 2.9140%

GLD 134.18 -0.23
SLV 26.94 +0.08
PTM 19.59 -0.01

XLE 63.27 +1.12
XLF 14.63 +0.22

VXX 43.16 -1.71

STV 9.00 +1.29 (16.73%). China Digital Tv Holding Co Ltd. Ramp higher to close at day high.

20101123 PM

Dow 11,036.37 +142.21
Nasdaq 2,494.95 +37.07
SP500 1,180.73 +17.11
10-YrBond 0.2574% +2.5556

After initial gap down for the indices, it was a quite day.
Dollar nearly $1 higher.

GLD 134.41 +0.93
SLV 26.86 -0.31
PTM 19.60 -0.16

XLE 62.15 -1.24
XLF 14.41 -0.23

VXX 44.87 +1.95

AGQ 128.06 -3.26. Added a little to this long position at 126.40. Day range 125.53 - 130.75. Opened with gap down which put in low price of day.

MDW 0.7070 +0.0770 (12.22%). Ramped high in last 1/2 hour. 52 week range 0.38 - 1.04.

ARG 62.00 -3.90 (5.92%). Airgas Inc. Took back six months of rising price.
EUO 20.39 +0.73 (3.71%). Gap up, meandered higher, closed near day high.

20101123 1456

DJIA 11,022.82 -155.76
NASDAQ 2,492.69 -39.33
SP500 1,180.37 -17.47

Waiting for afternoon buying ramp in the indices. Silver gapped lower and has been recovering.

SLV 26.91 -0.26
AGQ 128.51 -2.81. Added a small position to existing long this morning at 126.40. So far, day range 125.53 - 130.75.

20101122 PM

Dow 11,178.58 -24.97
Nasdaq 2,532.02 +13.90
SP500 1,197.84 -1.89
10-YrBond 0.2574% -2.6176

Ireland saddled taxpayers with a bank bailout by applying for loans.

GLD 133.48 +1.28
SLV 27.17 +0.43
PTM 19.76 +0.01

XLE 63.39 -0.20
XLF 14.64 -0.21

VXX 42.92 -1.53

AGQ 131.32 +4.32. Started 1/2 long position today. Looking to sell a retest of the recent high in the 140s.

ANO 1.25 +0.12 (10.62%)
GS 161.05 -5.62 (3.37%). Some financials weak due to insider trading probe.
UNG 6.08 +0.15. Some buying interest here.

20101122 1258

DJIA 11,075.91 -127.64
NASDAQ 2,505.13 -12.99
SP500 1,187.10 -12.63

ZSL 129.52 +2.52. Started 1/2 long silver position at 129.9. May add to the long later today, depending on if/how weakness appears.

ANO 1.2401 +0.1101 (9.74%)

20101119 Weekend

Dow 11,203.55 +22.32
Nasdaq 2,518.12 +3.72
SP500 1,199.73 +3.04
30-yrBond 4.25% -0.03

GLD 132.20 +0.11
SLV 26.74 +0.39. Nice recovery from the lower prices on Tuesday and Wednesday. 52 week range 14.37 - 28.72. From morning intraday low, silver ramped nearly a dollar to close near the high. Metals dip buyers snatch up any morning bargains.
PTM 19.75 -0.08

XLE 63.59 +0.53
XLF 14.85 -0.01

VXX 44.45 -0.88

MELA 4.98 +2.45 (96.94%)
VLCCF 23.09 +0.41. Knightsbridge Tankers Limited. 8.80% dividend.

20101117 PM, UNG

Dow 11,007.88 -15.62
Nasdaq 2,476.01 +6.17
SP500 1,178.59 +0.25

GM will IPO on Thursday. Somehow throughtout the GM bankruptcy they were able to not discharge thier retiree benefits onto the PBGC, which typically would take over pensions after a bankruptcy. The retiree benefits were part of the cause of the bankruptcy, so GM hasn't corrected some fundamental problems.
In the indices, look for a pop on the GM offereing, then look for the stock indices to resume selling off into the weekend.

Oil at 80.49 has been down 10% in a few days.
Gold down 100 in a few days. Can retrace 30% from the recent highs.

GLD 130.38 -0.59
SLV 25.00 +0.07
PTM 19.31 -0.09

XLE 61.70 +0.25
XLF 14.66 -0.10

VXX 48.08 -1.26

LDSH 45.42 +16.09 (54.86%). Ladish Co. has agreed to be purchased by its largest raw materials supplier as it prepares for an anticipated uptick in the markets it serves. ... Vroman says the acquisition will open up new markets for Ladish that were “previously a stretch” for Cudahy-based Ladish, a forger of parts for the aerospace and industrial markets.
Allegheny Technologies Inc. of Pittsburgh has reached an agreement to purchase Ladish in a $778 million deal, or $48 per outstanding common share of Ladish stock.
ATI 48.41 -1.53. Allegheny Technologies Inc.

Municipal bond funds. Get ready to short the retracements:
NPX 12.49 +0.21. Nuveen Insured Premium Income Municipal Fund 2.
PML 10.65 +0.24. PIMCO Municipal Income Fund II.

NTAP 49.25 -3.44 (6.53%). Low earnings numbers.
RVREF 0.79 +0.05 (7.05%). RIVERSTONE RESOURCES.
UNG 5.73 +0.22 (3.99%). United States Natural Gas. Consider a buy at 5.5 for retest of recent 6 and maybe a longer term hold.

Money continues to move out of the high-fliers.
CARV 2.47 -0.36 (12.72%). Carver Bancorp Inc.
DQ 11.19 -2.20 (16.43%). Daqo New Energy Corp.
FSLR 122.83 -7.86 (6.01%). First Solar Inc.
IIIIU 3.85 -1.34 (25.82%). Information Services Group Inc.
NPD 3.96 -0.84 (17.50%). China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd.
RINO 6.07 -1.08 (15.10%). RINO International Corp.

20101116 PM

Dow 11,023.50 -178.47
Nasdaq 2,469.84 -43.98
SP500 1,178.34 -19.41
30-yrBond 4.2570% -0.1160

Yesterday, Monday November 15, the dollar closed above three recent peaks. Ireland, Portugal, and Greece continue to have immediate debt problems and Austria announced it may not fund Greece's debt.
With the dollar higher, the metals have correspondingly moved lower.

GLD 130.97 -1.45
SLV 24.93 +0.00
PTM 19.40 -0.61
XLE 61.45 -1.17
XLF 14.76 -0.25
VXX 49.34 +2.10 (4.45%)

REMX 19.43 -0.95 (4.67%). Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF.

A few days have passed since the Federal Reserve announced an additional $900 billion of quantitative easing. Let's review some well-placed propaganda.

In the October 18 issue of Barron's, Vincent Reinhart was interviewed by Jonathan R. Laing The Case for Quantitative Easing.

Some article highlights:

The interviewer asked "What about the Japanese attempt early in the decade?"
Reinhart answered "The problem with the Japanese is they went about easing in a half-hearted way."

The real problem was Japan had blown a massive credit bubble in the real estate market and was unwilling to allow bank failures to work out the bad debt. Therefore, the debt still exists and the Japanese economy continues to struggle under the debt burden. More easing would not have cleared the bad debt, just like more easing in the USA will not clear the bad debt.
The system of ever-increasing credit finally failed. Until the debts are discharged, no amount of fiddling will fix a fail system.

Reinhart said "When the Fed announces more quantitative easing, we might not see that much of a reaction in security prices."
It took a few days until debt blew out causing higher interest rates. Since November 8, the yield on the 30 year treasury has gone from 4.10 to 4.35. Interest rates are rising, the opposite of what Bernanke claimed would happen. Bond holders are going to continue to dump their holdings by selling into the Fed's bid.

Reinhart said "When the Fed purchases Treasuries, that also puts downward pressure on the exchange value of the dollar, and upward pressure on commodity prices."
The interviewer asked "Is that a good thing or bad thing?"
Reinhart said "It depends on your outlook."

For the average American, higher gasoline prices and higher food prices are not good.

Reinhart said "Hyperinflation occurs when central banks lose their discipline and monetary policy gets into the hands of the politicians."
The Fed didn't need any help from politicians to destroy the value of the dollar. Since it's creation in 1913, the Fed has devalued the dollar by 97%.

Reinhart said "Should one sit on one's hands instead, and not use all the tools at our disposal?"
The Fed is the number two holder of USA debt, behind the Chinese, and will soon be the number one holder of USA debt. The USA has a budget deficit problem with high unemployment and a collapsing real estate debt bubble. The Fed is trapped with no effective tools. Fed monetization of the debt is a tortured way of having the Treasury directly print money. At this point, the Fed is useless.

The simple market solution is to allow competing currencies. Other changes would be useful, such as reducing the insurance limits in bank accounts protected by the FDIC.

20101115 1255

DJIA 11,269.13 +76.55
NASDAQ 2,528.03 +9.82
SP500 1,206.05 +6.84

Dollar higher. Metals higher.

UUP 22.70 +0.09. Sold at 22.73 for .48 per share gain. Taking this small profit to free up cash. Still own similar position in EUO.

EUO 19.72 +0.23. ProShares UltraShort Euro.

20101112 Weekend

Dow 11,192.58 -90.52
Nasdaq 2,518.21 -37.31
SP500 1,199.21 -14.33. Consider shorting if it bounces to 1214.

China sold off 5%. Europe sold off then recovered.
Dollar down a little. Building cause for 80 then 83.
Metals and other commodities down big with corn/rice/bean limit down. Risk trades were taken off. Precious metal bulls will want prices to go down with lighter volume.
Oil was down.

EU urges Ireland to accept a bailout. Instead of pushing the debt bubble further, Ireland could allow their failing banks to fail and be restructured. Allowing the banks to fail would create short term turmoil that would quickly resolve into a fresh start for Ireland. Ireland's debt is a bigger problem, as few would advocate a country default on it's debt.

GM is expected to IPO on Thursday. Participating banks have a big incentive to push this out at a good price. The banks will try to keep indices levitating until then. Four trading days to keep the markets pumped up so the banker's bonus checks will roll.

GLD 133.69 -3.97
SLV 25.52 -1.59 (5.87%). This retracement into 25s, if it builds cause here, will build a base for further gains.
PTM 20.58 -0.13

XLE 62.94 -0.94
XLF 14.94 -0.25

VXX 47.60 +2.17 (4.78%)

BA 63.09 -2.28 (3.49%). Huge downside volume. 52 week range 49.72 - 76.00.
MELA 5.60 -0.34 (5.72%). MELA Sciences, Inc. The shorts have pressed their trade. Now they await a regulatory ruling due this week. 52 week range 5.23 - 12.24.


Municipal bonds are faltering. With tax revenue problems and difficulty making substantial budget cuts, municipal bonds are a losing proposition.

MUB 102.90 +0.32. iShares S&P National AMT-Free Muni Bd.

PCK 8.65 -0.14. PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund II.

Printing money is the last refuge of failed economic empires and banana republics:

20101111 PM

Dow 11,283.10 -73.94
Nasdaq 2,555.52 -23.26
SP500 1,213.54 -5.17
30-yrBond 0.39% -3.85

Dollar higher. Watch how dollar tests 78. After 78, it may go on to 80. Euro will do the opposite.
Troubles with Irish banks and their debt.
Big name earnings misses - Cisco and Disney.

GLD 137.66 +0.42
SLV 27.11 +0.39
PTM 20.71 +0.08

XLE 63.88 +0.70
XLF 15.19 -0.15

VXX 45.43 +0.83

CSCO 20.52 -3.97 (16.21%). Open 20.50. Previous close 24.49. A stop loss would not have protected profits in a long position. Earnings news of lower sales.
DIS 35.93 -1.06 (2.87%)
DRYS 5.63 +0.49 (9.43%)
LVLT 1.12 +0.09 (8.74%)
MVG 9.96 +0.11. Buy retracement around 8.40.
SLW 35.39 +0.61
UUP 22.64 +0.16. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish. Going for 24.

20101109 PM, COMEX Raises Margin

Dow 11,346.75 -60.09
Nasdaq 2,562.98 -17.07
SP500 1,213.40 -9.85
30-yrBond 4.25% +0.11

Indices were higher in the morning then sold off. Dollar higher.

With volume in the metals, this could be the time when dip buyers don't step in. A pullback and consolidation would be useful for higher prices. Metal pullback blamed on COMEX raising margins:

Silver fell from the highest price in 30 years after CME Group Inc.’s Comex unit raised margin requirements. Gold dropped from a record.
The minimum amount of cash traders must deposit when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $6,500 per contract from $5,000 for exchange members...

Silver shorts have a small window to cover. After margins encourage speculative long liquidation, look to reload speculative silver longs.

Interesting comment from James Rickards:

Most markets consist of two parties, the buyer and the seller. But in futures markets there's a third party in every trade which is the exchange and more specifically the rule making bodies and margin setting panels on each exchange. They act not in the best interests of buyers or sellers but in the best interests of the exchange itself and its statutory duty to maintain orderly markets.

GLD 135.59 -2.19 (1.59%). Set another all-time high, then sold off on big volume.
SLV 26.18 -0.97 (3.57%). Set another 30-year high, then sold off on massive volume.
PTM 20.75 -0.20

XLE 62.38 -0.12
XLF 15.17 -0.29

NG 14.27 -0.33 (2.26%). Made another 52 week high then sold off with huge volume.

LVLT 1.05 +0.17 (18.64%). Possible agreement to provide content delivery for Netflix.

20101108 PM

Dow 11,406.84 -37.24
Nasdaq 2,580.05 +1.07
SP500 1,223.25 -2.60
10-YrBond 2.5630% +0.0270

Dollar higher and metals higher.

GLD 137.78 +1.40
SLV 27.15 +0.95
PTM 20.95 +0.01

XLE 62.50 +0.19
XLF 15.46 -0.12

VXX 11.29 +0.15

A few miners with big percentage gains:
ANO 1.45 +0.09 (6.62%)
EXK 6.41 +0.54 (9.20%)
NGD 8.80 +0.57 (6.93%)
MDW 0.6490 +0.0390 (6.39%)
SDRG 0.22 +0.02 (10.00%)

20101105 Weekend

Dow 11,444.08 +9.24
Nasdaq 2,578.98 +1.64
SP500 1,225.85 +4.79
30-yrBond 0.3916% -3.6524

Dollar was higher and metals were higher. At lunch time, dollar took another step higher which pushed metals and indices toward unchanged.

This week the Federal Reserve met expectations and will embark on a further $900 billion of money printing. With the rush higher in stock indices, next week (around Wednesday), look for stock indices to pull back.

GLD 136.38 +0.35. Another all time high.
SLV 26.20 +0.57. Another 30 year high.
PTM 20.94 -0.16

XLE 62.31 +0.31
XLF 15.58 +0.35

VXX 11.14 -0.12

EXK 5.87 +0.62 (11.81%)

20101104 PM

Dow 11,434.84 +219.71
Nasdaq 2,577.34 +37.07
SP500 1,221.06 +23.10

Indices opened with a gap higher and held the gains. Dollar opened lower and made a feeble recovery attempt. The inflation and risk trade is on.

GLD 136.03 +4.46 (3.39%)
SLV 25.63 +1.38 (5.70%). Huge day in silver. Expect a further pop on short covering.
PTM 21.10 +0.94 (4.66%)

XLE 62.00 +1.91 (3.18%)
XLF 15.23 +0.49 (3.33%)

VXX 11.26 -0.81 (6.71%). Another big down day.

EVOGF 0.88 -0.01. Relative weakness when other miners were up (some up big).

20101026 PM

DOW 11169.46 +5.41
Nasdaq 2,497.29 +6.44
SP500 1185.64 +0.02
10Yr.T-Note 2.636% +0.82

Traders are marking time until next week when the Fed will announce how much manipulation they will implement. Elections are the day before the Fed announces.

Manufacturer input costs are rising:

Consumer products maker Kimberly-Clark Corp. said Tuesday that its third-quarter net income fell 19 percent as making its top-selling tissues and diapers got more expensive...

In 2008, the government intervened with $12.8 trillion to prop up failing banks. FOIA requests to determine where the funds went have stymied by Treasury.

The United States Treasury concealed $40 billion in likely taxpayer losses on the bailout of the American International Group...

Bart Chilton, a commissioner at the U.S. futures regulator, said there have been repeated attempts to manipulate the silver market.

GLD 130.88 +0.03
SLV 23.28 +0.18
PTM 20.15 +0.16

XLE 59.58 +0.12
XLF 14.57 +0.02

VXX 12.92 +0.27

20101022 Weekend

Dow 11,132.56 -14.01
Nasdaq 2,479.39 +19.72
SP500 1,183.08 +2.82
30-yrBond 0.37% +0.00

Marking time until currency decision from the G20 meeting in South Korea this weekend.

GLD 129.73 +0.26
SLV 22.76 +0.17
PTM 19.78 -0.02

XLE 59.30 +0.39
XLF 14.60 -0.00

VXX 12.83 -0.60

20101021 PM

Dow 11,146.57 +38.60
Nasdaq 2,459.67 +2.28
SP500 1,180.26 +2.09
30-yrBond 0.37% +0.00

Dollar was lower until 10:30AM, when it started a climb higher into the close. Indices and commodities had the expected reaction. Markets are joined to currencies, with currency gambling based on central bank actions.

GLD 129.47 -1.85
SLV 22.59 -0.74
PTM 19.80 -0.14

XLE 58.91 -0.03
XLF 14.61 -0.00

VXX 13.43 -0.32

20101020 PM

Dow 11,107.97 +129.35
Nasdaq 2,457.39 +20.44
SP500 1,178.17 +12.27
30-yrBond 0.37% -3.53

Dollar violently lower to give back prior day gains. Metals moved higher.

GLD 131.32 +1.21
SLV 23.33 +0.49
PTM 19.94 +0.29

XLE 58.94 +0.75
XLF 14.61 +0.14

VXX 13.75 -0.73

BAC 11.75 -0.05. Another 52 week low. Bank of America Accused of Racketeering in Foreclosure Lawsuit in Indiana

20101019 1355

Dow 10,998.91 -144.78
Nasdaq 2,444.23 -36.43
SP500 1,169.43 -15.28
10-YrBond 2.4950% -0.0040

Dollar opened sharply higher, marked time and gave back a few pennies, and looks to continue making gains.
With indices having climbed higher with light volume the past couple months, a sell-off could quickly get out of control. This is not the time to be aggressively long stocks.

GLD 130.34 -3.94
SLV 23.14 -0.82
PTM 19.71 -0.32

EUO 19.38 +0.55. ProShares UltraShort Euro. Closed my eyes and bought at 19.37.

AAPL 310.52 -7.48
UUP 22.64 +0.32. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish.
DZZ 9.12 +0.60 (7.04%). PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN.

20101018 PM

Dow 11,143.69 +80.91
Nasdaq 2,480.66 +11.89
S&P 500 1,184.71 +8.52
10-YrBond 2.4910% -0.0850

Dollar was higher and sold off during the day to give up the overnight gains. Commodities turned positive during the day.

After hours:
AAPL is down. There will need to be a lot more selling to cause real destruction in AAPL and the NASDAQ index.
Commodities are down and the dollar has jumped higher.

GLD 134.28 +0.60. While gold could try another test at round number 1400, this is not the place to be aggressively long.
SLV 23.96 +0.21
PTM 20.03 +0.01

XLE 59.37 +0.16
XLF 14.67 +0.32

VXX 14.03 -0.39

UUP 22.32 -0.02

20101014 1145

DJIA 11,063.84 -32.24
NASDAQ 2,433.89 -7.34
SP500 1,172.39 -5.71

If dollar finds a short-term bottom, equities will correct and commodities may correct.

UUP 22.25 -0.11. Bought at 22.25. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund.

20101014 0157

The dollar had a quick sell-off and is now at 76.5.

The Bank of Japan is talking of buying more Japanese bonds and stocks to attempt to prop up their markets and free up private capital. This will be another failed intervention resulting in further international currency instability and higher prices for precious metals and commodities.

Central banks are battling for their own survival, which means they are trying to save their constituents, the local banks. Currency battles are underway. Precious metals have a chance to shoot higher, with gold potentially testing $1400 this week.

20101013 PM, gold eagle coin premium

Dow 11,096.08 +75.68
Nasdaq 2,441.23 +23.31
SP500 1,178.10 +8.33
10-YrBond 2.4310% +0.09

Apparently US Mint gold eagle coins premiums have collapsed from $60 per coin to nearly nothing. This is supposedly because there is so much retail customer coin selling that dealers are not offering the premiums to their selling customers. If the gold price goes down, it is likely the premium will be restored which will effectively buffer any price decline. In other words, when retail customers are selling their gold coins and premiums disappear, it can be a good time to take the other side of the trade and buy those coins.
Gold spot is 1372.40. US Mint gold eagle coin offer is 1427.30 and bid is 1402. Let's keep an eye on the premium.

GLD 134.07 +2.11
SLV 23.49 +0.65
PTM 20.15 +0.30

XLE 59.14 +0.71
XLF 14.86 +0.01

VXX 14.20 -0.30

Potential longs: gold, silver, RBY, TRE.

MDW 0.645 +0.021. Bought at .65. 52 week range 0.38 - 1.04. Used funds from small closed position (today) to put into this exploration firm.

ANO 1.49 +0.15 (11.19%)

20101013 1523PM

Dow 11,137.45 +117.05
Nasdaq 2,450.82 +32.90
S&P 500 1,182.10 +12.33
10-YrBond 2.4310% +0.09

It's "go go go" with headline Dow making another close above 11,000.
Precious metals continue higher, with gold and silver setting up for a spectacular move higher. A technical correction would make the move higher more sustainable. With the small size of the gold/silver markets, gold could easily spurt to $1400 if money moves in. The miners are starting to move.

As gambles, had a tiny "mental" hedge that needed to be cleaned up.

BGZ 11.10 -0.3596. 41% loss on a few hundred dollars. Understanding this was a long-shot hedge on a tiny position, even a 20% stop would have been prudent.

20101013 1232

DJIA 11,143.95 +123.55. Decisively over 11,000.
NASDAQ 2,446.48 +28.56
SP500 1,182.49 +12.72

Indices, metals, and commoidities higher.

ZSL 18.30 -0.96. Sold partial position at 18.28 for 2.47 per share loss. Keeping this is a small position size was important.

20101007 1229

DJIA 10,916.11 -51.54
NASDAQ 2,375.08 -5.58
SP500 1,154.03 -5.94

Dollar has recovered from day lows and is down .10. If the dollar bounces higher, stocks and metals can go sharply lower.

GLD 129.89 -1.92
SLV 22.06 -0.63
PTM 20.08 -0.17

ZSL 20.82 +1.01 (+5.08%). Started 1/4 position at 20.77. Looking to hold this position for a few days - at least through the weekend.

AGQ 88.50 -5.70 (-6.05%)

20101007 1218

DJIA 10,938.70 -28.95
NASDAQ 2,380.84 +0.18
SP500 1,156.75 -3.22

Dollar trying to put in a short term bottom.
Precious metals lowers with some of the recent fast-moving miners showing big percentage losses.
If metals don't hold these lows, there may be a waterfall of selling miners and metal ETFs.

GLD 130.32 -1.49
SLV 22.17 -0.52
PTM 20.08 -0.17

AGQ 89.83 -4.37 (-4.64%). Looks like it can find lower lows today, so sold at 90.14 for ~6 point per share gain. (This position was legged into and legged out of, so the gain on this portion is approximate.)

ANO 1.17 -0.10 (-7.87%)
EVOGF 0.772 -0.038 (-4.69%)
SQIFF 0.5850 -0.0430 (-6.85%)

20101006 PM

Dow 10,967.65 +22.93 (0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,380.66 -19.17 (0.80%)
SP500 1,159.97 -0.78 (0.07%)
10-YrBond 2.3990% -0.75

While metals are extended and could use time to consolidate recent gains, only US currency intervention would be big enough to change the mid-term direction of the metals. A pullback or marking time would be useful for further sustainable gains in the metals.

GLD 131.81 +0.82
SLV 22.69 +0.35. Weekly close above 23 then 35 will be in play.
PTM 20.25 +0.15

XLE 57.93 +0.51
XLF 14.72 -0.01

VXX 16.24 -0.19

ANO 1.27 +0.10 (8.55%)
EXK 4.49 +0.23 (5.40%)

After steady and steep price rises, these are collapsing:
CRM 104.95 -8.96 (7.87%)
CTXS 60.15 -9.85 (14.07%)
EQIX 70.34 -34.75 (33.07%)
RAX 23.29 -2.92 (11.14%)
VMW 77.56 -7.66 (8.99%)

20101006 1037

DJIA 10,938.66 -6.06
NASDAQ 2,381.14 -18.69
SP500 1,158.35 -2.40

AGQ 91.74 +0.38. Sold 1/4 at 91.77 for 8.57 per share gain. Taking some profits.

20101005 PM

Dow 10,944.72 +193.45
Nasdaq 2,399.83 +55.31
SP500 1,160.75 +23.72. Next stop is 1,173.57.
30-yrBond 3.73% +0.21

GLD 130.99 +2.53 (1.97%)
SLV 22.34 +0.83 (3.86%). Opening gap up to open higher than yesterday's high, then kept running.
PTM 20.10 +0.31 (1.57%)

XLE 57.42 +1.32
XLF 14.73 +0.33

VXX 16.43 -0.94

AGQ 91.36 +6.38 (7.51%). Double long silver.
ANO 1.17 +0.11 (10.38%). Platinum miner.

BIOF 2.40 +0.45 (23.08%). BioFuel Energy Corp. Up on EPA ethanol news. Today, 10x average volume. Had shown tell-tale volume spikes on up days in the past couple weeks.

20101001 Weekend, Neodymium

Dow 10,829.68 +41.63
Nasdaq 2,370.75 +2.13
SP500 1,146.24 +5.04
30-yrBond 3.72% +0.34

Dollar dramatically lower, off .73 to 78.05. Precious metals sharply higher. Gold closed at 1316. Silver closed at 22.02. Crude oil closed at 81.03, which will push transportation prices and food prices higher in the coming months.

GLD 128.91 +1.00
SLV 21.65 +0.34
PTM 19.89 +0.30

XLE 56.81 +0.75
XLF 14.50 +0.16

VXX 17.04 +0.25

Obama added a fundamental reason to purchase physical gold & silver by allowing his Treasury Department to propose monitoring of ALL cross-border money transfers (any amount). This is the tightening of capital flows which signals monetary and economic failure. This is another reason to protect your assets and take possession of gold and silver.

King World News article and audio interview of Ben Davies. Ben discusses the failed Bretton Woods agreement, anemic global GDP, currency devaluations, Japanese currency vs. Chinese currency vs. US currency, and eventual collapse of the worldwide fiat monetary system.

ANO 1.08 +0.19 (21.05%). Ten times average volume on no apparent news. Volume higher than any day in past two years. 52 week range 0.72 - 1.78.
MDW 0.62 +0.03. 52 week range 0.38 - 1.04.

GMCR 29.57 -1.62. Was at 37.95 on Tuesday. Going to 24. Issues with revenue recognition.


There is renewed interest in neodymium and it's unique uses in magnets. Little is produced outside of China.

The only possible non Chinese, or non Chinese owned, sources for neodymium for the open market now are the Americans, privately owned MolyCorp and privately owned Thorium Energy, Inc., and the Canadians, publicly traded Great western Minerals Group and publicly traded Avalon Rare Metals.

Great Western Minerals Group (OTC: GWMGF), a company developing four rare earth projects, is up 948%, to 33 cents a share, in 2009.
That's a sluggish performance compared with Ucore Uranium (OTC: UURAF), which is developing a rare earth mine in southeastern Alaska. Shares of Ucore are up 4,181% in 2009, to 83 cents per share.

My advice, at this point, is to stand back and let the rockets cool. The speculators will move on to some other sector fairly soon. Use the time to separate the mining stories from the real mining companies.

The only possible sources for this extra production would be:
1. Lynas Corp (Mt. Weld, Australia),
2. Arafura, Ltd (Nolan's Bore, Australia)
3. Molycorp (Mountain Pass, california)
4. Great Western Minerals Group, Ltd. (Hoidas Lake, saskatchewan, Canada),
5. Avalon Rare Metals (Thor Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada), or
6. Thorium Energy, inc. (Lemhi Pass, Idaho).

MCP 29.58 +1.29. Molycorp. 52 week range 12.10 - 30.00. Began trading in August.

20100930 1525

DJIA 10,805.04 -30.24
NASDAQ 2,375.27 -1.29
SP500 1,143.80 -0.93

Indices opened higher, sold off, and are stabilizing with a small loss. Metals recovering nicely.

AGQ 83.30 -0.67. Previous close 83.97. Day range 81.58 - 85.28. Added a 1/2 long position at 83.2 to increase the full position started yesterday.

20100930 1140

DJIA 10,785.18 -50.10
NASDAQ 2,358.32 -18.24
SP500 1,140.52 -4.21

Dollar higher, metals lower. Indices trying to turn up right now.

EVOGF 0.82 +0.019. Sold at .823 for nearly .18 per share loss. 52 week range .61 - 1.26. Closed this tiny position in a dog of a gold miner.

20100929 1228

DJIA 10,856.93 -1.21
NASDAQ 2,380.12 +0.53
SP500 1,147.40 -0.30

Short metals did not work, so will follow trend by going long metals.

AGQ 84.72 +1.50. Long at 84.78.

20100929 1225

DJIA 10,863.06 +4.92
NASDAQ 2,381.65 +2.06
SP500 1,148.19 +0.49

Was looking for dollar bounce which did not happen overnight. Closing the 1/2 position of gold short and looking to go long a precious metal for scalp trade.

DZZ 9.44 -0.03. Sold at 9.43 for .25 per share loss.

20100928 1027

DJIA 10,792.18 -19.86
NASDAQ 2,356.75 -13.02
SP500 1,138.52 -3.64

Some volatility in the first half hour. Everyone is holding their breath waiting for a plunge, while indices have continued higher on lighter volume.
Overnight gold traded $20 lower then recovered. Looking to go short silver or gold for a scalp.

GLD 127.22 +0.50
SLV 20.96 -0.03
PTM 19.24 +0.00

DZZ 9.60 -0.07. PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN. Started 1/2 position at 9.68. Day range 9.57 - 9.78. Previous close 9.67.

20100917 0946

DJIA 10,618.45 +23.62
NASDAQ 2,312.01 +8.76
SP500 1,128.56 +3.90

Indices opened higher on earnings reports. Option expiry pushing around prices.
Overnight the dollar moved higher and metals lower. This seems to have played out and may pause or reverse.

AGQ 75.84 -0.46. Aggressive long silver swing trade. Looking to close today.

20100915 PM

Dow 10,572.73 +46.24
Nasdaq 2,301.32 +11.55
SP500 1,125.07 +3.97
30-yrBond 3.8740% +0.8800

GLD 123.94 -0.08
SLV 20.17 +0.12
PTM 19.07 +0.24

XLE 54.66 -0.11
XLF 14.76 +0.05

VXX 17.31 -0.26

AGQ Tuesday, 14th, bought small position at 73.89.
NNVC Tuesday, 14th, sold second half of position at 1.10 for huge 1.38 per share loss. In retrospect, should have sold all of it in May.

20100830 PM

Dow 10,009.73 -140.92
Nasdaq 2,119.97 -33.66
SP500 1,048.92 -15.67
10-YrBond 2.55% -1.07

Stocks indices tried to go higher with lighter volume and failed.
Japanese central bank increased credit facilities, to no avail. Metals held price (down marginally) while the dollar ramped higher. Gold close above 1245 and it can quickly run $100 higher.

SQIFF 0.874 +0.079 (9.94%). 52 week high.
MDW 0.499 +0.029 (6.17% )

BAC 12.32 -0.32. Pressing 52 week lows.

20100829 Weekend

Dow 10,150.65 164.84 (1.65%)
Nasdaq 2,153.63 34.94 (1.65%)
S&P 500 1,064.59 17.37 (1.66%)
10-Yr Bond 2.65% 0.1530

After early morning selloff, stock indices ran higher. Bernanke said the Fed can do more quantitative easing.
Japanese Yen has been marching higher, while Japanese stock market makes new 52 week lows. Reportedly central bank of Japan will meet during the weekend.
Gold and silver higher. Silver up 16% to close into 19s. Smaller miners nearing 52 week highs.

GLD 121.01 +0.05
SLV 18.70 +0.11
PTM 18.12 +0.02

XLE 52.10 +1.32
XLF 13.73 +0.29

VXX 21.50 -1.40 (6.11%)

EXK 3.50 +0.17 (5.11%)
NGD 6.48 +0.43 (7.11%)
SQIFF 0.7950 +0.0550 (7.43%)

20100826 PM

Dow 9,985.81 -74.25
Nasdaq 2,118.69 -22.85
SP500 1,047.22 -8.11. Close below 1040 will
10-YrBond 2.50% -0.0390

Stock indices could not handle the early higher prices, and sold off.
Bonds look to have a blow-off top in the next couple months.

GLD 120.96 -0.40
SLV 18.59 +0.05
PTM 18.10 +0.04

XLE 50.78 -0.46
XLF 13.44 -0.11

VXX 22.90 +0.23

SDS 35.55 +0.49. Sold at 35.272 for .878 per share gain.

20100825 PM

Dow 10,060.06 +19.61
Nasdaq 2,141.54 +17.78
SP500 1,055.33 +3.46. Can bounce to 1080.
10-YrBond 2.54% +0.39

US stock indices rejected lower prices. Look for a bounce then lower prices.
Metals and junior miners showing strength. Gold closing above 1243 will propel it quickly above 1300.
Japan set another 52 week low.
Let's see how the markets do into the weekend, before lightening up some of the shorts. Likely will lighten up the shorts by September 10.

GLD 121.36 +1.00
SLV 18.54 +0.55
PTM 18.06 +0.11

XLE 51.24 -0.16
XLF 13.55 +0.04

VXX 22.67 -0.58

RIMM 47.74 +0.68. If this bounces over the next few days, consider shorting near 50.

Smaller miners are moving:
GBG 2.14 +0.07 (3.38%)
GDXJ 29.62 +1.02 (3.57%). Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.
MDW 0.46 +0.02 (4.57%)
NGD 5.98 +0.45 (8.14%)
SQIFF 0.77 +0.0582 (8.18%)

20100721 1422

DJIA 10,135.74 -94.22
NASDAQ 2,199.35 -23.14
SP500 1,072.59 -10.89

The indices took a steep slide down. Day traders will be covering shorts here. I am going to stay short because beyond today the balance of energy is not for higher prices.
With index slide, dollar went higher and precious metals showed some weakness.

SDS 34.45 +0.68

20100721 1352

DJIA 10,244.27 +14.31
NASDAQ 2,222.40 -0.09
SP500 1,084.16 +0.68

SDS 33.71 -0.06. Bought more at 33.77.

GORO 14.18 +0.28

20100716 Weekend

Dow 10,097.90 -261.41
Nasdaq 2,179.05 -70.03
SP500 1,064.88 -31.60
30-yrBond 3.95% -0.19

Indices were sold all day, to close near lows.
Gold and silver again had a lower weekly close.

GLD 116.67 -1.56
SLV 17.49 -0.46
PTM 17.82 -0.33

XLE 51.73 -1.26
XLF 14.13 -0.62 (4.21%)

VXX 27.37 +1.67 (6.50%)

MDW 0.43 -0.04 (8.51%). Midway Gold Corp.

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2010/07/05/daily28.html?ana=e_du_pap
Gold Resource Corp. has been approved to apply for listing of its common stock on the NYSE: Amex.
The Denver company (OTC BB: GORO) is a gold producer with operations in the southern Mexico state of Oaxaca.

20100708 1419

DJIA 10,036.52 +18.24
NASDAQ 2,151.00 -8.47
SP500 1,058.82 -1.45

Large bounce yesterday above some support levels provided hope that rally would continue through the summer. Today the indices tested higher prices on lighter volume, and the indices are now breaking to lows of the day.

Precious metals can be bought here for a bounce.

SDS 35.51 +0.07. ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF. Started small position at ~35.51. May add more tomorrow (Friday).

20100706 1018

Dow 9,848.60 +162.12
Nasdaq 2,134.54 +42.75
SP500 1,041.64 +19.06
10-YrBond 2.99% +0.09

Indices are bouncing and appear to be setting up further downside.

ZSL 35.70 +0.43. Sold at 35.26 for 1.09 gain.

20100701 PM, Bear Market

Dow 9,732.53 -41.49
Nasdaq 2,101.36 -7.88
SP500 1,027.37 -3.34
10-YrBond 2.93% -0.24

Euro higher and dollar much lower. Indices sold off then staged some recovery.
Gold and silver down dramatically.
Indices have returned to September 2009 levels. The bear market that began in 2007 has returned.

GLD 117.04 -4.64 (3.81%)
SLV 17.44 -0.77 (4.23%)
PTM 17.77 -0.35 (1.93%)

XLE 49.50 -0.18
XLF 13.68 -0.13

VXX 30.90 -0.30

EVOGF 0.77 +0.01
MDW 0.50 +0.04 (8.70%). Made 52 week low then rebounded strongly. 52 week range 0.41 - 1.04.

20100701 1037

DOW 9,668.14 -105.880
NASDAQ 2,073.04 -36.200
SP500 1,015.92 -14.790

With world indices and US indices down several days in a row, and a losing quarter for US indices on the books, and a pre-holiday upside bias not appearing, and geopolitical uncertainty, traders are selling to avoid being long over the long weekend.
Concerns that selling may turn into a waterfall.

BGZ 19.09 +0.84 (+4.60%). Started two small positions (large cap triple short) average price of 19.
ZSL 34.25 +1.79 (+5.51%). Went long (silver double short) at 34.17.

20100701 1027

DOW 9,707.82 -66.200
NASDAQ 2,083.64 -25.600
SP500 1,021.16 -9.550

Pre-holiday upside bias has not yet appeared.

SSO 31.68 -0.528. Stopped out at 31.63 for 4.14 per share loss. While anticipating pre-holiday seasonality upside, this went further than it should have gone.

20100625 Weekend

Dow 10,143.81 -8.99
Nasdaq 2,223.48 +6.06
SP500 1,076.76 +3.07
30-yrBond 4.07% -0.17

G20 meets this weekend. Expect talk of austerity measures while they will actually implement further bailouts and propping up of the broken financial pieces.

GLD 122.76 +1.46
SLV 18.67 +0.41
PTM 18.47 -0.06

XLE 52.49 +0.15
XLF 14.64 +0.39

VXX 27.72 -0.63

20100624 1006

DOW 10,213.72 -84.720
NASDAQ 2,230.57 -23.660
SP500 1,081.57 -10.470

On the open indices gapped down and sold lower, quickly using up downside energy. Indices will chop around and attempt to stabilize. Metals are regaining some of the moderate overnight losses.

SSO 35.57 -0.66. Added to long position at 35.55.

20100623 PM

Dow 10,298.44 +4.92
Nasdaq 2,254.23 -7.57
SP500 1,092.04 -3.27
30-yrBond 4.0600% -0.0390

For those with bullish bias, the market held up well in the face of negative news (very weak new house sales, additional gas leakage in Gulf of Mexico).

GLD 120.95 -0.50
SLV 18.18 -0.24
PTM 18.66 -0.28

XLE 53.46 -0.41
XLF 14.51 -0.07

VXX 26.71 +0.22

SSO 36.23 -0.25

20100623 1023

DOW 10,256.49 -37.030
NASDAQ 2,241.83 -19.970
SP500 1,087.81 -7.500

Low new home sales report sparked further selling. A lot of downside energy has been used. Potential bounce is setting up.

Metals lower.

SSO 36.01 -0.47. Bought at 35.96 for a scalp.

20100622 1440

DOW 10,383.84 -58.570
NASDAQ 2,281.83 -7.260
SP500 1,104.74 -8.460

BGZ 14.95 +0.372. Trailing stop closed this position for .46 gain.

20100621 PM

Dow 10,442.41 -8.23
Nasdaq 2,289.09 -20.71
SP500 1,113.20 -4.31. Can easily test 1080s.
10-YrBond 3.24% -0.20

Asia and Europe closed positive. US indices unable to close positive.
Gold made slightly higher high then sold off. Can break $100 lower. Looks OK to short gold on a bounce until the FOMC meets on Wednesday.

Euro was volatile and closed lower. Dollar higher.
Eclipse next Monday.
Over the weekend, some press reported that China will allow it's currency to be revalued. China's currency had the same set price today. This "news" appears to be over-stated or the Chinese were misinterpreted.

Fed's FOMC meets Wednesday and is widely expected to keep low interest rates for the foreseeable future.

GLD 120.39 -2.44
SLV 18.33 -0.42
PTM 18.88 -0.06

XLE 55.49 -0.12
XLF 14.81 -0.02

VXX 25.48 +0.41

BGZ 14.58 +0.16

20100621 1556

DOW 10,428.50 -22.14
NASDAQ 2,286.08 -23.720
SP500 1,111.90 -5.610

Pullback in indices and metals is likely done for today. No compelling reason to close short (BGZ) now. Would not be trying to buy this dip, as risk is to the down side.

BGZ 14.64 +0.22. Will hold overnight.

20100621 1103

DOW 10,539.90 +89.26
NASDAQ 2,322.34 +12.54
SP500 1,125.41 +7.90

Indices turned lower and moving half-way into the opening gap. Can indices regain strength and move higher, or were the opening gap up prices the high and indices will sell lower to be near unchanged by end of day.

BGZ 14.07 -0.35. Went long at 14.10.

20100621 1015

DOW 10,581.61 +130.97
NASDAQ 2,335.10 +25.30
SP500 1,130.02 +12.51

Indices can run higher, but I'm closing the double SP500 long to take profits.

SSO 38.88 +0.87. Sold at 38.83 for .83 gain.

20100618 Weekend

Dow 10,450.64 +16.47
Nasdaq 2,309.80 +2.64
SP500 1,117.51 +1.47
10-YrBond 3.22% +0.0330

Gold made a record high.

GLD 122.83 +0.93
SLV 18.75 +0.42
PTM 18.94 +0.17

XLE 55.61 +0.35
XLF 14.83 +0.09

VXX 25.07 -0.45

EVOGF 0.86 +0.0369 (4.50%). Has based for a month, so may be ready to move with higher gold price.
NNVC 2.00 +0.07 (3.63%). Off recent lows with volume contracting.
SSO 38.01 +0.07

AGQ 66.79 +2.95 (4.61%). ProShares Ultra Silver. Watch how it tests May high of 72.71.
HL 5.89 0.33 (5.94%). Hecla Mining Co. 52 week range 2.26 - 7.47.
NEM 61.25 +1.57 (2.63%). 52 week high. Looks to test January 2006 high of 62.72. Volume is 1/3 of what it should be if it will go past that high.
PAAS 27.71 0.94 (3.51%). Pan American Silver Corp. 52 week range 16.64 - 28.41.
SWC 13.53 0.47 (3.60%). Stillwater Mining Co. 52 week range 4.45 - 18.48.

FNM 0.35 -0.079 (-18.41%). Propped up by federal government, and being delisted.
FRE 0.4003 -0.1097 (-21.51%). Propped up by federal government, and being delisted. Acting like a home insurance company by allowing grants to home owners with mortgages backed by FRE that have defective drywall. Freddie Mac Announces Forbearances For Borrowers With Single Family Homes Affected By Problem Drywall What about people with a failing dish washer, or a failed light bulb?


Several items from (last week) June 14 Barron's:

Says GDP is price adjusted:
A Grim Drop in Retail Sales
A gasoline-sales decline reported by the Census Bureau was driven by the steep drop in gas prices in May. But consumer spending for calculating real GDP growth is price-adjusted. So no such decline will be reported by the BEA in real GDP for the current quarter.


The Roundtable update had several members who mentioned the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Abby Joseph Cohen is so interested in staying on the good side of all companies that she has made a special phrase to describe the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico.

Handle With Care

ABBY JOSEPH COHEN
This has been a difficult period for many energy companies, given worries about global growth, and the special situation involving BP in the Gulf of Mexico.

MERYL WITMER
The evidence in the Gulf of Mexico points to BP making mistakes.

MARIO GABELLI
The BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico will be a catalyst for National Fuel Gas to figure out how to monetize its Seneca Resources operations.


MFC 6.30 +0.06. Manulife Financial Corporation. Mentioned as possible long in Roundtable article.

20100618 1309

DJIA 10,454.20 +20.03
NASDAQ 2,307.74 +0.58
SP500 1,117.31 +1.27

SSO 38.01 +0.07. Long at 38 for intraday scalp.

EVOGF 0.88 +0.0588 (7.17%). Nice percentage gain, following higher metal prices. This equity is thinly traded.

20100618 1104

DJIA 10,468.71 +34.54
NASDAQ 2,320.15 +12.99
SP500 1,119.73 +3.69

TNA 48.99 +0.97. Sold at average price of 49 for ~1.2 per share gain.

20100617 PM

Dow 10,434.17 +24.71
Nasdaq 2,307.16 +1.23. Considerably lighter volume.
SP500 1,116.04 +1.43
30-yrBond 4.12% -0.78

Indices opened slightly higher, sold off, tried to test unchanged in afternoon, sold off again, then spurted higher into the close.
Europe is planning a banking stress test and planning to publish the results in late July.
Tomorrow is quadruple witching expiry.

Gold higher overnight and tested 1250 this morning. Next level is 1272. Some analysts say with the lighter volume on exchange traded gold, that gold is putting in a triple top.

GLD 121.90 +1.57
SLV 18.33 +0.25
PTM 18.77 +0.12

XLE 55.52 -0.06
XLF 14.78 -0.02

VXX 25.52 -0.75

TNA 48.02 +0.09. Look to close long position tomorrow.

VG 2.68 +0.30 (12.61%)

20100616 PM

Dow 10,409.46 +4.69
Nasdaq 2,305.93 +0.05
SP500 1,114.61 -0.62
30-yrBond 4.20% -0.30

GLD 120.33 -0.66
SLV 18.09 -0.10
PTM 18.65 -0.10

XLE 55.58 -0.04
XLF 14.80 +0.01

VXX 26.27 -0.43

TNA 47.93 -0.45. Went to full long position at end of day at 47.99 for swing trade.

Quasi-governmental firms that backstop most of the mortgages will be delisted.
FNM 0.563 -0.3619 (-39.15%).
FRE 0.753 -0.467 (-38.28%).

GXDX 17.19 -5.690 (-24.87%). GENOPTIX INC. Physician practice company issued downside guidance.

20100616 0938

DOW 10,354.29 -50.48
NASDAQ 2,296.47 -9.41
SP500 1,110.29 -4.94

Still looking for moderately higher prices, on light volume, into Friday.

TNA 47.51 -0.87. Started small long at 47.55.

20100615 PM

Dow 10,404.77 +213.88
Nasdaq 2,305.88 +61.92
SP500 1,115.23 +25.60
30-yrBond 4.23% +0.29

GLD 120.99 +1.39
SLV 18.19 +0.33
PTM 18.75 +0.17

XLE 55.62 +1.58
XLF 14.79 +0.34

VXX 26.70 1.73 -6.09%

BBY 38.56 -2.49 (6.07%). Big volume.
CREE 69.83 +3.58 (5.40%)
VG 2.47 +0.36 (17.06%). 52 week range 0.31 - 2.63. Has built long base. Can go higher then pull back to 2.11.

20100614 PM

Dow 10,190.89 -20.18
Nasdaq 2,243.96 +0.36
SP500 1,089.63 -1.97
30-yrBond 4.20% +0.66

Indices opened higher and sold off during the afternoon to close slightly lower. Still looking for higher prices this week on lighter volume - maybe SP500 to 1150.
After initially moving lower, dollar reversed to close down just a few pennies.

GLD 119.60 -0.41
SLV 17.86 +0.01
PTM 18.58 +0.29

XLE 54.04 -0.28
XLF 14.45 -0.06

VXX 28.43 -0.42

BGZ 15.53 +0.05. Sell order at 15.32 was hit for .35 intraday gain.
DZZ 11.08 +0.08.

SGG 44.97 +1.08. iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN. Possible short at 48.
LVS 25.99 +0.27. 52 week high.

20100614 1249

DOW 10,293.98 +82.91
NASDAQ 2,271.33 +27.73
SP500 1,101.38 +9.78

For scalp traders, indices now look to consolidate or pull back for a few hours.

BGZ 15.05 -0.43. Started half position at 14.97 for intraday scalp trade. Day range 14.84 - 15.27. Previous close 15.48.

20100614 1009

Dow 10,255.96 +44.89
Nasdaq 2,263.58 +19.98
SP500 1,097.53 +5.93
10-YrBond 3.29% +0.75

Dollar and gold down. Silver, platinum, oil higher.
Look for moderate upside bias to the indices this week.

DZZ 11.07 +0.0699. Sold at 11.08 for .21 per share gain. Closing this position as there may be better opportunities elsewhere. Hesitant to be short gold for too long.

20100611 Weekend

Dow 10,211.07 +38.54
Nasdaq2,243.60 +24.89
SP500 1,091.60 +4.76
30-yrBond 4.14% -1.06

Indices slightly higher. Indices look to be slightly higher next week.
Gold hit all time high this week.
Next Friday is triple witching option expiration.

GLD 120.01 +1.04
SLV 17.85 -0.01
PTM 18.29 +0.01

XLE 54.32 +0.33
XLF 14.51 +0.04

VXX 28.85 -0.72

20100608 PM, Eurasian Minerals

Dow 9,939.98 +123.49
Nasdaq 2,170.57 -3.33
SP500 1,062.00 +11.53
10-YrBond 3.17% -0.16

GLD 121.00 -0.49
SLV 17.89 +0.08
PTM 18.14 +0.19

XLE 51.95 +0.85
XLF 14.16 +0.29

VXX 31.14 -1.13

DZZ 10.84 +0.09

NGD 6.60 +0.31. 52 week high.

EMX 2.25 +.19. Eurasian Minerals on the Toronto venture exchange.
Eurasian Minerals Inc. is pleased to announce it has completed the first tranche of a C$5.28 million private placement financing by issuing 2 million shares at C$2.20 per share to Newmont Mining Corporation of Canada Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM), for aggregate proceeds of C$4.4 million.

20100608 1512

DOW 9,860.93 +44.44
NASDAQ 2,153.99 -19.910
SP500 1,052.58 +2.11

Indices and commodities and dollar mixed.

Gold is not showing enough volume to push higher. At a minimum it needs more time to consolidate, and it could go lower from here.

DZZ 10.86 +0.1099. Deutsche Bank AG DB Gold Double Short ETN. Bought 1/2 position at 10.87.

20100607 PM

Dow 9,816.49 -115.48
Nasdaq 2,173.90 -45.27
SP500 1,050.47 -14.41
10-YrBond 3.18% -0.11

Indices lower. Dollar nearly unchanged. Precious metals higher, and silver dramatically (%) higher.

GLD 121.49 +2.30
SLV 17.81 +0.76
PTM 17.95 -0.03
XLE 51.10 -0.45
XLF 13.87 -0.28
VXX 32.27 +0.98

ICE 116.97 -0.93. Looks to go lower.
RIMM 56.56 -3.12 (5.23%). Looks to go lower.

TRE 4.63 +0.18 (4.04%)

20100604 Weekend

Dow 9,931.97 -323.31 (3.15%)
Nasdaq 2,219.17 -83.86 (3.64%)
SP500 1,064.88 -37.95 (3.44%)
30-yrBond 4.12% -1.69

Jobs report was poor. Indices gapped down, stabilized for an hour, then selling resumed and closed at the lows. The selling was with volume.
Dollar was up strongly into 88s. Euro reached a four year low.
Gold was down in the morning and closed higher. Gold buyers continue to step in when their is price weakness. Considering how other commodities are lower and the dollar is higher, gold is holding up relatively well. Gold is marking time to potentially spike higher on further shocks to global economics (financial, European, military). A close above 1224 should scare any remaining retail shorts.
Other precious metals and oil were down. Silver was down 1.06 from last Friday.

GLD 119.19 +1.23
SLV 17.05 -0.59
PTM 17.98 -0.37

XLE 51.55 -1.88
XLF 14.15 -0.59

VXX 31.29 +2.89 (10.18%)

SPXU 36.53 +3.31 (9.96%)

Ideas for watch lists:
HL 5.02 -0.29 (5.46%). Mines several metals, though mainly silver. Aggressive miner play.
PAAS 24.07 -1.37 (5.39%). 2/3 silver production, with 1/3 of gold production. Higher risk long for move higher in next couple weeks.
SWC 11.49 -1.33 (10.37). Consider this as aggressive play on miners.

ECPG 9.19 -1.30 (6.34%). Encore Capital Group. Debt collection.

20100604 1110

DOW 10,062.49 -192.790
NASDAQ 2,267.49 -35.540
SP500 1,083.83 -19.000

Indices gapped down on weak jobs report. Some technicians are watching Dow 10,100 level.
Metals and oil down.
Dollar higher and may test 88 today.

SPXU 34.86 +1.64. Sold at 34.77 for ~.80 per share gain overnight. Took the gain (and turning off computers for the day).

20100603 1332

DOW 10,200.64 -48.900
NASDAQ 2,283.38 +2.31
SP500 1,095.02 -3.360

Indices were higher with lighter volume and failed. Commodities (metals, oil) continue lower. Dollar higher.

Canada's central bank raised interest rates from .25% to .5%.

Jobs report Friday. May be opportunity to get short if there is a relatively positive top-line jobs number.

SPXU 33.93 +0.410. PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P500. Went long at average price of ~33.96.

20100601 PM

Dow 10,024.02 -112.61
Nasdaq 2,222.33 -34.71
SP500 1,070.71 -18.70. Watch how 1040 is tested - heavy volume or light volume.
30-yrBond 4.20% -0.12

GLD 119.91 +1.03
SLV 18.02 -0.01
PTM 18.40 +0.08

XLE 50.53 -2.52
XLF 14.37 -0.31

VXX 30.19 +1.61

BP 36.52 -6.43 (14.97%). 52 week low. Under October lows with huge volume and going lower. Other oil produces also lower.

20100527 PM

Dow 10,258.99 +284.54
Nasdaq 2,277.68 +81.80
S&P 500 1,103.06 +35.11
10-Yr Bond 3.34% +1.20

Yesterday indices sold off into the close, which created doom & gloom anticipation for the overnight and morning. China said it was not considering selling EU debt, which helped to cause relief rallies around the world.
Daily swings of 3% - 5% does not inspire confidence for the average retail investor. When will retail investors leave the gambling casinos?
Oil up 8% in two days.
Dramatic rebound in Euro with dollar dramatically weaker. Euro strength is likely intervention by central banks to prop up economies.
Precious metals slightly higher.

Took off more long positions before the holiday weekend. Expect light volume tomorrow.

GLD 118.69 +0.22
SLV 18.12 +0.38
PTM 18.52 +0.37

XLE 54.07 +2.20
XLF 15.01 +0.65

VXX 28.33 -2.70

OLO 12.28 +0.59 (5.05%). PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN. Trailing stop didn't close the long position, so sold it at 12.28 for about .66 per share gain. OLO trades less than 80,000 shares per day.
SSO 37.20 +2.37 (6.80%). Trailing stop sold long position in the morning at 36.39 for 2.85 per share gain.

BIDU 73.51 +5.92
BP 45.38 +2.97. Initial results of attempt to stop Gulf oil leak look good.
RBY 3.59 +0.32 (9.79%). Big volume. Maybe a low is in.

20100526 PM

Dow 9,974.45 -69.30
Nasdaq 2,195.88 -15.07
SP500 1,067.95 -6.08
10-YrBond 3.22% +0.60

Indices opened higher but couldn't hold price and sold lower into the close.

GLD 118.47 1.11
SLV 17.74 0.20
PTM 18.15 0.25

XLE 51.87 0.11
XLF 14.36 0.10

VXX 31.03 0.63

BGU 44.72 -0.66
NNVC 1.71 -0.045. Sold part of long position at 1.83 for a loss.

20100526 1029

DJIA 10,138.59 +94.84
NASDAQ 2,247.23 +36.28
SP500 1,086.28 +12.25

BGU 47.02 +1.64. Sold at 47.05 for 1.22 per share loss. Cleaning up this position. Had purchased this too early in the multi-day correction.

20100525 PM

Dow 10,043.75 -22.82
Nasdaq 2,210.95 -2.60
SP500 1,074.03 +0.38. Day range 1,040.78 - 1,074.75.
10-YrBond 3.16% -0.69

The recent "flash crash" took a lot of downside energy from the market. In the past week a slow move back to that price point, along with the gap down today, caused an oversold situation. There simply was not enough downside energy to keep the indices lower today.
Indices steadily ramped higher from 2PM until the close. Look for follow-through tomorrow with higher prices.

GLD 117.36 +0.52
SLV 17.54 -0.02. Can bounce .80 or .90 higher.
PTM 17.90 -0.30

XLE 51.98 +0.12
XLF 14.46 +0.13

VXX 31.66 -1.46

OLO 11.42 -0.10. Day range 11.06 - 11.42.
SSO 35.30 +0.08. Day range 33.04 - 35.32.

EVOGF.PK 0.8462 -0.1138 (11.85%). Day range 0.7990 - 0.8462. Impressive recovery off lows of day, though still down a big percentage.
GBG . Longer term a good buy. Look to buy before July because they are expected to ramp up more production by end of June.
NG 7.26 +0.28 (4.01%). Large day range price spread 6.66 - 7.28. 52 week range 3.33 - 9.18. Longer term a good buy.
NGD 5.91 +0.35 (6.29%). Large day range price spread 5.25 - 5.91.

20100525 0951

DJIA 9,846.35 -220.22
NASDAQ 2,154.31 -59.24
SP500 1,049.09 -24.56

Worldwide indices down on debt worries in Europe. USA indices gapped down. It looks like there will not be enough volume on the downside to push to lower prices today.

SSO 33.58 -1.64. Went long at 33.54.

20100524 PM

Dow 10,066.57 -126.82
Nasdaq 2,213.55 -15.49
SP500 1,073.65 -14.04
30-yrBond 4.10% +0.39

Indices and metals and oil moved higher then sharply sold off into the close.
A several day bounce was expected. If the higher prices this morning were all that could be mustered, markets are facing big downside.

GLD 116.84 +1.62
SLV 17.56 +0.27
PTM 18.20 +0.46

XLE 51.86 -1.21
XLF 14.33 -0.42

VXX 33.12 -0.19

20100523 Weekend

Dow 10,193.39 +125.38
Nasdaq 2,229.04 +25.03
SP500 1,087.69 +16.10
10-YrBond 3.20% -0.64

Indices tested the "flash crash" from last week. Look for a bounce next week.
Australia was down 5% overnight and recovered.

GLD 115.22 0.62
SLV 17.29 0.06
PTM 17.74 0.14

XLE 53.07 0.91
XLF 14.75 0.51

VXX 33.31 0.76

20100520 1454

DJIA 10,246.29 -198.08
NASDAQ 2,247.16 -51.21
SP500 1,092.62 -22.43

Dollar continues lower.

BGU 47.99 -2.98. Started small position at 48.24. Waiting for potential recovery from these intraday lows.

20100520 1437

DJIA 10,213.19 -231.18
NASDAQ 2,238.17 -60.20
SP500 1,088.89 -26.16

UUP 24.99 -0.23. Dollar index again breaking lower. Something is happening here so I am closing this trade to step back. Sold at 25.01 for .11 per share loss.

OLO 11.61 -0.38. PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN. Bought at average price of about 11.61. Expect some price rebound.

20100520 1401

Dow 10,177.97 -266.40
Nasdaq 2,223.80 -74.57
SP500 1,082.95 -32.10
30-yrBond 4.1130% -1.2400

Big volatility with price spread.
Dollar, metals, and oil lower.
Oil down 8%, at 64.6. Look for it to recover some of the price loss before the close today.
Platinum down 90 at 15.11.

DZZ 11.88 +0.17. Sold at 11.81 for .95 per share gain.

20100519 PM

Dow 10,444.37 -66.58
Nasdaq 2,298.37 -18.89
SP500 1,115.05 -5.75
30-yrBond 4.24% -0.17

Dollar and precious metals down.

GLD 116.63 -2.86
SLV 17.87 -0.70
PTM 19.01 -0.97

XLE 54.60 -0.63
XLF 14.94 +0.02

VXX 29.85 +0.72

ANO 1.07 -0.11 9.32%
EXK 4.01 +0.10. Relative strength.

20100518 PM

Dow 10,510.95 -114.88
Nasdaq 2,317.26 -36.97
SP500 1,120.80 -16.14
10-YrBond 3.38% -0.96

Options expiry this weekend, which may bring larger price spreads.
Dollar made big run higher.
Gold bounced higher and looks to continue lower.
Silver looks to test 17.08.
Oil closed below 70. Big price spread.
Germany announced it would ban naked short selling immediately, including commodities. Existing naked shorts would be required to be unwound in less than a year. It appears CDS will need an insurable interest.

GLD 119.49 +0.13
SLV 18.57 +0.04
PTM 19.98 +0.05

XLE 55.23 -0.43
XLF 14.92 -0.44

VXX 29.13 +1.65 6.00%

20100517 PM

Dow 10,625.83 +5.67
Nasdaq 2,354.23 +7.38
SP500 1,136.94 +1.26
10-YrBond 3.47% +0.30

GLD 119.36 -1.01
SLV 18.53 -0.40
PTM 19.93 -0.62

XLE 55.66 -0.58
XLF 15.36 +0.01

VXX 27.48 +0.62

DZZ 11.14 +0.22.
ZSL 32.98 +1.36. Sold at 32.9 for 1.4 per share gain.

20100514 Weekend

Dow 10,620.16 -162.79
Nasdaq 2,346.85 -47.51
SP500 1,135.68 -21.75
10-YrBond 3.44% -1.22

Dollar higher. Metals slightly lower. Oil slightly higher.
The recent gold short was not appropriate considering that gold has recently made all-time highs.

EVOGF.PK 1.09 +0.0865 8.65%. EVOLVING GOLD CORP. In last hour, ramped to close at day high. Today showed relative strength vs. other miners. Needs more volume. Resistance at 1.25.
EVG.V 1.11 +0.09 8.82%. EVOLVING GOLD CORP.
UUP 25.19 +0.23

KONE 3.94 -0.06. Kingtone Wirelessinfo Solution Holding Ltd. Chinese IPO priced at 4.
LINE 25.12 -0.26. Linn Energy, LLC. 52 week range 12.60 - 28.99. 9.9% dividend. Watch list buy on pullback.
TIVO 10.16 -7.23 41.58%. Huge volume. Back to breakout in early March. Setback in patent lawsuit with Dish.

20100514 1047, Long dollar, Short metals

DJIA 10,637.99 -144.96
NASDAQ 2,348.42 -45.94
SP500 1,138.03 -19.41

Dollar higher. Gold and silver lower after being slightly positive this morning.
Oil lower. The world is literally flooded with oil. With deflation, in a year or two oil can be in the 20s.

Yesterday sold most holdings in miners and gold. Holding small position in small cap miner Evolving Gold.

Last weekend was more talk about EU loan guarantees. That juiced the market before the open Monday. After that, markets have sold lower. If not in cash over the weekend, consider being short general market, short precious metals and most miners, long dollar, short pound.

DZZ 10.99 +0.11. PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN. Went long at 10.86.
UUP 25.11 +0.15. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund. Went long 1/2 position at 25.12.
ZSL 31.67 +0.22. ProShares UltraShort Silver. Went long at 31.50.

Rare insights in CNBC interview about euro, dollar, precious metals. Several approximate quotes:
Dollar flows are overwhelming physical holdings.
Dollar is the best of the fiat currencies. [ I would add the best of the large fiat currencies. ]
Oil storage is at all-time high with future months selling $10 higher.

20100513 PM

Dow 10,782.95 -113.96
Nasdaq 2,394.36 -30.66
SP500 1,157.43 -14.24
30-yrBond 4.46% -0.12

Gold and the dollar have been roughly moving higher together. Dollar (USDX) is going for 89 soon while gold shows signs of faltering. Something is going to happen soon causing a pullback in the markets and a pullback in the metals. It could be that interest rates in the US are going higher. Gold in euro has ramped dramatically higher. Euro is below 1.26 vs. dollar, and euro is going for 1.15.
Sold some physical gold bullion today.
Oil at 73.93. If it closes below 73, it can quickly drop to low 60s.

GLD 120.56 -0.84
SLV 18.99 -0.13
PTM 20.75 -0.12

XLE 57.38 -0.37
XLF 15.76 -0.29

VXX 24.73 +0.65

AEM 63.95 -1.14
DGP 33.04 -0.40. Sold today at 32.92 for 3.63 per share gain.
EXK 4.00 -0.13. Sold this morning.

SY 64.22 +8.08 14.39%. Sybase bought out by SAP.

Consider for tomorrow:
GLL 39.23 +0.52. ProShares UltraShort Gold
DZZ 10.88 +0.14. PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN
ZSL 31.45 +0.42. ProShares UltraShort Silver
UUP 24.96 0.14. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish

20060731 Tom PM

INDU 11186 down 34.
SPX 1277 down 2.
CCMP 2091 down 3.
Dollar 85.09 down .10.
Gold 648.40 up 1.60.
Silver 11.44 up .07.

XOM 67.74 up .74. Volume a little lighter, but ABC up to 71.
LSI 8.20 up .22. In big consolidation.
PLCE 55.82 up .97. May go to 67.

ISRG 95.20 down 6.34. Keep an eye on this as a short.

20100513 1003

DJIA 10,878.70 -18.21
NASDAQ 2,426.20 +1.18
SP500 1,169.58 -2.09

With price of gold at all-time highs, some gold equities have struggled. Locking in gains on some miners.

AEM 64.64 -0.45. Watched this spike higher yesterday morning, then didn't hold that high price. Slightly lower today.
EXK 4.12 -0.01. Closed long position at 4.12 for .37 per share gain.

20100511 PM

Dow 10,748.26 +36.88
Nasdaq 2,375.31 +0.64
SP500 1,155.79 +3.94
30-yrBond 4.42% +0.12

Markets opened lower, went higher, then closed nearly flat.
Dollar was higher. Precious metals higher with gold closing at all time high.

GLD 120.66 +3.09 2.62%
SLV 18.95 +0.84 4.64%
PTM 20.29 +0.09

XLE 56.96 -0.38
XLF 15.87 -0.06

VXX 25.63 +0.55

EXK 4.00 +0.35 9.59%

20100510 PM

Dow 10,785.14 +404.71
Nasdaq 2,374.67 +109.03
SP500 1,159.73 +48.85
10-YrBond 3.54% +1.10

Nearly 1 trillion in EU debt guarantees were announced over the weekend. Markets gapped higher and closed near the opening levels.
Through currency swaps, the Federal Reserve participates in the Euro-zone bailout while putting American taxpayers and the US dollar at risk.

GLD 117.57 -0.70
SLV 18.11 +0.11
PTM 20.20 +0.37

XLE 57.34 +2.35
XLF 15.93 +0.84

VXX 25.08 -4.17

20100507 Weekend

Dow 10,380.43 -139.89 -1.33%
Nasdaq 2,265.64 -54.00 -2.33%
SP500 1,110.88 -17.27 -1.53%
10YrBond(%) 3.4290% +0.3100
Oil 75.11 -1.70 -2.20%

Markets are ready for a bounce lasting a couple days.

Gold 1,210.00 +10.90. Intraday price range of $20. Within 1% of all-time high.
Gold was lower and then ramped higher when this was released:

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a warning to the market on Friday to remind participants that speculative trading limits apply throughout the trading day as well as at the end of trading.

Gold was up yet GLD and DGP (equities which supposedly track gold) were slightly down.
Silver had over 6% intraday price range.

GLD 118.27 -0.22
SLV 18.00 +0.68
PTM 19.83 +0.25

XLE 54.99 -1.06
XLF 15.09 -0.17

VXX 29.25 +3.13 11.97%

DGP 31.82 -0.08.
LLEN 9.30 +0.09. L & L Energy, Inc. Relative strength.

20100506 PM, 9%

Dow 10,520.32 -347.80. Day range 9,869.62 - 10,879.76.
Nasdaq 2,319.64 -82.65
SP500 1,128.15 -37.72. Day range 1,065.79 - 1,167.58.
30-yrBond 4.17% -2.29

Intraday indices crashed with huge volume and huge downticks to test the lows of February 2010. At one point, indices were down 9%. The very high volume will make it more difficult to break through these lows and puts the indices into a large consolidation. Long term indices look to go lower. Short term the weak hands were taken out today so there will be a bounce.
Dollar was up along with Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Other currencies lower.
Gold rocketed higher to close above 1200. Expect consolidation for a test of 1227 all time high. Gold in Euros closed at all time highs.

GLD 118.49 +3.40
SLV 17.32 +0.21
PTM 19.58 -0.01

XLE 56.05 +1.99 3.42%
XLF 15.26 +0.67 4.22%

VXX 26.12 +2.79 11.94%

DGP 31.90 +1.76 5.84%
ANO 1.35 -0.09 6.25%
EXK 3.68 +0.07 1.94%. Strong stock.
MDW 0.63 -0.04 5.97%
NGD 5.67 -0.11 1.90%

NNVC 2.19 -0.29 11.69%. Day range 2.03 - 2.48. Held above 2.

20100505 1149

DJIA 10,930.85 +4.08
NASDAQ 2,417.96 -6.29
SP500 1,173.98 +0.38

Indices were negative with dollar higher, and indices are now attempting to go positive.

EVOGF 1.00 -0.02. Evolving Gold Corp. Started small long position at 1.00.

NNVC 2.50 +0.00. Day range 2.36 - 2.50.

20100504

Dow 10,926.77 -225.06 2.02%
Nasdaq 2,424.25 -74.49 2.98%
SP500 1,173.60 -28.66 2.38%
10-YrBond 3.61% -0.92

Dollar much higher. Indices down worldwide.

GLD 114.87 -0.86
SLV 17.59 -0.83
PTM 19.93 -0.64

XLE 58.97 -1.62
XLF 16.02 -0.45
VXX 22.37 +2.04

Miners:
ANO 1.49 -0.16 9.70%
EXK 3.78 -0.11
NGD 5.58 -0.16
RBY 3.86 -0.14
TRE 4.42 -0.06
EVOGF 1.02 -0.06 5.56%
SQIFF 0.4929 -0.0463 8.59%
MDW 0.6620 -0.0380 5.43%

Relative strength:
BP 51.20 +1.01
NNVC 2.50 +0.01

20100504 1202

DJIA 10,934.32 -217.51
NASDAQ 2,425.87 -72.87
SP500 1,175.67 -26.59

World indices down. Most currencies down with dollar higher into 83 area. Precious metals opened higher and sold off.
Whipsaw action and high volatility has me closing some positions.

DGP 30.13 -0.32. Sold most of long position in first minute of trading at 30.83.

NNVC 2.52 +0.03. After selling off in sympathy with indices, is now positive. Looking to close long position at slightly higher prices today.


2.52 0.03

20100430 Weekend

Dow 11,008.61 -158.71
Nasdaq 2,461.19 -50.73
SP500 1,186.68 -20.10
30-yrBond 4.53% -0.64

Indices were slightly higher in the morning then sold off the rest of the day.
Gold is into December 2009 high price bar.

GLD 115.35 +1.07
SLV 18.26 +0.12
PTM 20.81 +0.06

XLE 59.91 -0.75
VXX 21.21 +1.63

ANO 1.73 +0.02
EXK 3.92 +0.12
NGD 5.80 -0.02

NNVC 2.46 +0.265 12.10%. Scary down bar on April 28.

20100427 PM

Dow 10,991.99 -213.04
Nasdaq 2,471.47 -51.48
SP500 1,183.71 -28.34
10-YrBond 3.69% -1.25

Asia down 2% and Europe down 4%. Greek debt downgraded. Portugal debt downgraded.
Dollar up AND gold up. Euro down at eight month low versus dollar. Copper had a big down day -.17.
Fed FOMC meeting tomorrow.

GLD 114.63 +1.88
SLV 17.88 -0.05
PTM 20.58 -0.35

XLE 59.98 -1.90
XLF 15.96 -0.56

VXX 20.50 +1.84 (9.85%)

DGP 29.93 +0.93. Added small position to existing long at 29.3 today.
EXK 3.68 +0.01
EVOGF.PK 1.01 +0.0360
MDW 0.66 +0.00. Appears to be basing for move higher.

GS 153.04 +1.01. Relative strength.

20100427 1127 Cliff Diving

DJIA 11,097.41 -107.62
NASDAQ 2,498.00 -24.95
SP500 1,197.68 -14.37

Asia was down last night along with Europe. Our markets opened down, tried to recover to even, then abruptly gave it up and sold off. A chart of the sell-off is tracking a cliff diver.
Dollar is higher and gold & silver are higher. Gold is at all time highs in most currencies (except the dollar).

Fed's FOMC has a one day meeting tomorrow.

DGP 29.34 +0.34. Added small portion to long at 29.3.

20100423 Weekend

Dow 11,204.28 +69.99. Weekly close above 11,000.
Nasdaq 2,530.15 +11.08
SP500 1,217.28 +8.61
30-yrBond 4.67% +0.32

At noon eastern, indices were down slightly and then began the ramp higher to close at day highs.

GLD 113.18 +1.34. Strong up move today.
SLV 17.91 +0.27 Strong up move today. Silver move looks stronger than gold.
PTM 20.82 -0.06

XLE 62.09 +1.46
XLF 16.78 +0.05
VXX 18.37 -0.07

ANO 1.72 +0.09
EXK 3.57 +0.03
NGD 5.70 +0.34. Strong. 52 week high with volume.

DGP 29.20 +0.68. Started position at 29. PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN.

20100422 PM

Dow 11,134.29 +9.37
Nasdaq 2,519.07 +14.46
SP500 1,208.67 +2.74
30-yrBond 4.64% +0.27

Indices opened lower and commenced ramping higher to close at day highs. Dollar moved up toward 82.

GLD 111.84 -0.47
SLV 17.64 -0.13
PTM 20.88 +0.12

XLE 60.63 +0.15
XLF 16.73 +0.09
VXX 18.44 -0.15

ANO 1.63 -0.05
EXK 3.54 +0.03
NGD 5.36 +0.10. Strong stock.

NNVC 2.10 -0.01. Light volume. Consolidating to retest 2.5. Increased long position at 2.1.
SBUX 27.25 +1.86 (7.33%). Good earnings announcement. Appears turn-around is in place. 52 week high.

20100416 Weekend

Dow 11,018.66 -125.91
Nasdaq 2,481.26 -34.43
SP500 1,192.13 -19.54
10-YrBond 3.77% -0.78

A pullback was due. Goldman Sachs person in French indicted by SEC on civil charge for subprime debt deal was the news catalyst.
Look for lower commodity prices next week, including metals.

GLD 111.24 -2.41
SLV 17.41 -0.66
PTM 20.20 -0.40

XLE 59.30 -1.02
XLF 16.36 -0.62
VXX 19.97 +0.91

NGD 5.15 +0.01. Covered calls were exercised to take the stock over the weekend.

20100415 1010

DJIA 11,114.49 -8.62
NASDAQ 2,510.96 +6.10
SP500 1,210.97 +0.32

Indices opened slightly lower, marked time, and have started to ramp higher.

NNVC 2.49 +0.0619. Went long this crazy train in a crazy train yard at 2.48 when indices moved higher. 52 week high is 2.50.

PALL 54.68 -0.06. ETFS Physical Palladium Shares.

20100414 PM

Dow 11,123.11 +103.69
Nasdaq 2,504.86 +38.87
SP500 1,210.65 +13.35
30-yrBond 4.72% +0.53

Indices up again.

GLD 113.03 +0.34
SLV 18.07 +0.23
PTM 20.70 +0.22

XLE 60.33 +0.57
XLF 17.05 +0.43

VXX 19.15 -0.55

AAPL 245.69 +3.26. Another 52 week high.
NNVC 2.4281 +0.3181 (15.08%). NanoViricides. 52 week high on huge volume. In this market, 3 is possible.
SBUX 24.84 +0.11

ANO 1.65 -0.03
NGD 5.29 +0.17. An open order sold April 5 covered calls at .30. The calls expire this weekend.
EXK 3.70 +0.15. Calls for expiry were offered at a very favorable price. See picture.