Friday, December 31, 2010

20101231 Weekend Year-End

Dow 11,577.51 +7.80
Nasdaq 2,652.87 -10.11
SP500 1,257.64 -0.24

On the markets, almost everyone is a bull. New highs / new lows is not showing the new highs. Look for continued index volatility and consider going long VXX volatility. January 4 is a planet turn date so consider getting short on Monday.
If metals continue higher in 2011, exploration miners and junior miners will go much higher.
Oil made wild move higher back above 90 to close at 91.38. If oil spends more time above $90/barrel, it will push significant cost pressure into transportation and food. Energy continuity and energy affordability will be an underlying theme in 2011, even if it is ignored by the media.

GLD 138.72 +1.69
SLV 30.18 +0.42. 32 year high. A close over 31 the trigger to get long (with leverage) to ride an immediate explosive move higher. Many expectations, that seem reasonable, of $40/oz this year. Commentary from gotgoldreport.com:
In general, when the GSR is trending lower, that is a more bullish than bearish signal by itself. This is the first time, however, since the late 1970s that the fall in the GSR is in connection with either a perceived (at minimum) or an actual (very likely) condition of investor demand being greater than the existing supply of commercial silver bars to satisfy that exploding demand.

In other words, this fall in the gold/silver ratio is possibly different than all the others that occurred in the 1990s and in the last decade. The major difference is that in all the previous declines in the GSR since the 1980 silver collapse there was ample commercial bar silver available to satisfy demand. There is some legitimate question as to whether there is enough supply this time.
PTM 20.92 +0.31

XLE 68.25 +0.10
XLF 15.95 +0.02
VXX 37.61 -0.31. 52 week range 36.31 - 144.88.

ANO 1.63 +0.03. 52 week range 0.82 - 1.78.
GBG 2.96 +0.04. 52 week range 1.55 - 3.04.
MDW 0.84 +0.05. 52 week range 0.38 - 0.95.

CNSNF 0.25 -0.01. CONSTANTINE METAL. 52 week range 0.02 - 0.27. Speculative, high-risk long.
MEA 5.88 +0.23. Metalico Inc. 52 week range 3.07 - 7.09.
SLW 39.04 +1.17 3.09%. 52 week range 13.04 - 42.34.
TLR 1.19 +0.09. Timberline Resources Corp. 52 week range 0.73 - 1.47.
TRE 7.30 +0.02 0.27%. 52 week range 3.35 - 7.32.

SGG 93.55 +4.56. iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN. 52 week range 37.18 - 101.30. Was down 10% yesterday with volume. Today made some recovery today back to near all-time high.
JJC 59.10 +0.82. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN. 52 week range 36.60 - 59.30.

MBI 11.99 +0.12. MBIA Inc. 52 week range 4.05 - 12.62. Higher with volume. Good looking financial.

NENE 1.87 +0.08. New Energy Technologies, Inc. 52 week range 0.35 - 3.29. May be building cause to retest recent high or maybe test 2.50s.


Bob Marley, Three Little Birds


Elton John, Levon

Levon wears his war wound like a crown
He calls his child Jesus
'Cause he likes the name
And he sends him to the finest school in town

Levon, Levon likes his money
He makes a lot they say
Spends his days counting
In a garage by the motorway

He was born a pauper to a pawn on a Christmas day
When the New York Times said, "God is dead
And the war's begun, Alvin Tostig has a son today"

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon

Levon sells cartoon balloons in town
His family business thrives
Jesus blows up balloons all day
Sits on the porch swing watching them fly

And Jesus, he wants to go to Venus
Leaving Levon far behind
Take a balloon and go sailing
While Levon, Levon slowly dies

He was born a pauper to a pawn on a Christmas day
When the New York Times said, "God is dead
And the war's begun, Alvin Tostig has a son today"

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Levon
In tradition with the family plan

And he shall be Levon
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Levon

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

20101228 PM

Dow 11,575.54 +20.51
Nasdaq 2,662.88 -4.39
SP500 1,258.51 +0.97
10YrBond(%) 3.4810% +0.1300

Light trading volume. Dollar turned positive. Commodities continue higher. Oil closed at 91.22.

GLD 137.22 +2.20
SLV 29.53 +0.94
PTM 20.73 +0.37

XLE 67.42 +0.25
XLF 16.01 +0.00
VXX 38.93 +0.47

GBG 2.99 +0.09. With gold pushing above 1400, bought this miner at 3.00 for possible retest of 52 week high of 3.32. Keeping a tight stop.
SPXU 19.43 -.04. Trailing stop sold at 19.36 for .64 per share loss.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

20101223 Merry Christmas, Ethiopia

Dow 11,573.49 +14.00
Nasdaq 2,665.60 -5.88
SP500 1,256.77 -2.07
30-yrBond 4.4750% +0.0290

Looking to go long precious metals and commodities on any weakness into the New Year.

GLD 134.66 -0.39
SLV 28.61 +0.04
PTM 20.31 -0.12
Copper hit a high of 4.28/lb on Monday. This could mark a top. Copper miner Force majeure
Chile’s giant Collahuasi copper mine, the world’s third largest, has halted shipments indefinitely following an accident at the mine’s ore shipping terminal. ... Mine officials said the mishap had not affected Collahuasi’s actual mining operations ... They said they did not know how long shipments would be suspended. Separately, a port official told Reuters it could take at least a month to repair the damaged loading station.

XLE 67.41 +0.19
XLF 15.87 -0.12

JJC 56.62 -0.41. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.
NGD 9.24 +0.12. 52 week range 3.50 - 10.29. May be basing to retest 52 week high.
SWC 20.65 -0.06. Stillwater Mining Co resumes supplying palladium to GM. 52 week range 8.56 - 22.86.
SDRG 0.1250 0.0150. Silver Dragon Resources Inc. 52 week range 0.07 - 0.46. Volatile.

NENE 1.98 +0.03. New Energy Technologies, Inc. 52 week range 0.31 - 3.29. May be basing.


Article by FOFOA describing a "monetary focal point" and why silver was the "easy money" and gold is the real "hard money".


Gold commentary by Jeff Clark




Surprising perspective of on-the-ground opportunities in Ethiopia.
It is no joke that Ethiopians are now unable to afford buying some of the produce of their own country. Following this last price spike, coffee is almost out of the question for many.
...
One fact alone is that fewer than 1.5 in 100 people in Ethiopia have a cell phone today according to a recent (ITU), International Telecommunications Union report. That is the lowest concentration in all Africa and amongst the lowest anywhere on earth.
...
The country does not yet have its own stock exchange, credit and debit transactions are virtually unknown across the country, few individuals have bank accounts and the banking sector itself is still working through its developmental stage.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

20101222 Commodities

Dow 11,559.49 +26.33
Nasdaq 2,671.48 +3.87
SP500 1,258.84 +4.24
30-yrBond 4.4460% +0.0150

GLD 135.05 -0.27
SLV 28.57 -0.07
PTM 20.43 +0.13

XLE 67.22 +0.23
XLF 15.99 +0.17

NBBHYL:IND 8.41 +0.018. TRACE HY Comp Avg Yield to Mat. Moving higher. In 2008 this spiked to 20% before bank financial problems rocked the markets.

Commodity ramp is going strong. Charts from Dan Norcini showing commodities have taken out the 2008 highs.
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/clip_image00219.jpg

Crude oil closed above $90.
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/December2210Crude.pdf


DIG 44.67 +0.23. ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas. Two year high.
JJC 57.03 +0.03. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN. Two year high.
Trader Holds $3 Billion of Copper in London Some see a cup and handle formation in copper.

SPXU 19.42 -0.21. Started a 1/2 long position of this SPX short, and am considering closing the position.



Bill Carleton’s "That’s Why (I’m Mining Gold)"

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

20101221 PM

Dow 11,533.16 +55.03
Nasdaq 2,667.61 +18.05
SP500 1,254.60 +7.52
30-yrBond 4.4310% -0.0310

GLD 135.32 +0.21
SLV 28.64 -0.07
PTM 20.30 +0.15

XLE 66.99 +0.67
XLF 15.81 +0.27

SPXU 19.63 -0.37

ANO 1.42 +0.05. 52 week range 0.77 - 1.78.
GOLD 84.79 -2.38. Randgold Resources Ltd. South African gold miner. Nearing a six month low. Weakness can be indication of continued dollar strength.
JJC 57.00 +1.02. Tracks copper. 52 week range 36.60 - 57.05.

NENE 2.03 +0.10. Building cause. Potential long.

Monday, December 20, 2010

20101220 1343

DJIA 11,479.08 -12.83
NASDAQ 2,651.67 +8.70
SP500 1,247.38 +3.47

SPXU 20.00 -0.13. Short the SPX. Went long at 20.

20101220 1319

DJIA 11,477.23 -14.68. Showing weakness.
NASDAQ 2,651.72 +8.75. Continued strength.
SP500 1,247.29 +3.38. Retesting opening high. Potential short at this level.

SPXU 20.00 -0.13. ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ProShares.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

20101217 Weekend

Dow 11,491.91 -7.34
Nasdaq 2,642.97 +5.66
SP500 1,243.91 +1.04
30-yrBond 4.4090% -0.1730

Mixed week on light volume before Christmas.

Dollar is at 80.36. Consider a long trade for the rest of the year into 82.2.

Longer Treasury bonds melted own on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stick-save rally on Friday. This bounce will likely be shorted.

Copper is controlled 75% by one private speculator in South America. Could be a triple top forming.

Precious metals remain strong.
GLD 134.20 +0.39
SLV 28.51 +0.23
PTM 20.10 +0.05

XLE 65.89 +0.02
XLF 15.53 +0.09. Wikileaks has let us know the banks are insolvent, not just illiquid.
BANKING CRISIS NOW ONE OF SOLVENCY NOT LIQUIDITY SAYS BANK OF ENGLAND GOVERNOR

ANO 1.33 +0.12 (9.92%). Sharp move higher in last ten minutes.
GNCMA 13.37 +0.45. Another 52 week high. 52 week range 5.21 - 13.95.
SAEI .10. Trading suspended. 52 week range 0.03 - 0.93. Froth and fraud in the small gold exploration companies.

TLT 93.24 +1.67. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond.
TBF 44.69 -0.85. ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury.
TBT 38.13 -1.50. ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

20101210 Weekend, Irish Financials, Copper

Dow 11,410.32 +40.26
Nasdaq 2,637.54 +20.87
SP500 1,240.40 +7.40
30-yrBond 4.42% +0.02

AIB 1.27 -0.08 (5.93%). Allied Irish Banks PLC. Volatility in Irish financials.

JJC 54.78 +0.70. iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN. 52 week high.
NDM.TO 13.55 +2.20 (19.38%). Northern Dynasty Minerals, Ltd. 52 week high.
PCX 19.01 +0.33. Global X Copper Miners ETF. Recently 52 week high.

Thursday, December 09, 2010

20101209 1331

DJIA 11,356.66 -15.82
NASDAQ 2,616.48 +7.32
SP500 1,231.28 +3.00

EUO 20.76 +0.09. Sold for 1.35 per share gain.

Monday, December 06, 2010

20101203 Weekend

Dow 11,382.09 +19.68
Nasdaq 2,591.46 +12.11
SP500 1,224.71 +3.18
30-yrBond 4.31% +0.05

Strong week for commodities. Silver took out 30-year highs. Gold had first ever weekly close above 1400. Oil was also higher and closed at 89.44, which will put cost-push price rises into the supply chain.
Sold silver the long and looking to move those funds into small miners, which I expect to outperform.
Federal Reserve released details of lending operations which included foreign companies like BMW and domestic non-financial companies like Harley-Davidson. This shows the Federal Reserve is the world's banker of last resort. The Federal Reserve has become the driving force of the economy.
With the Fed bailout details coming to light, people are becoming more aware of currency debasement which can lead to a crack-up boom. Flight into real goods (Flucht in die Sachwerte) or crack-up boom (Katastrophenhausse).

GLD 138.07 +2.87
SLV 28.60 +0.67
PTM 20.49 +0.11

XLE 65.82 +0.29
XLF 15.18 +0.05

ANO 1.35 -0.02. Average volume.
MDW 0.87 +0.10 (13.36%). 52 week range 0.38 - 1.04. Small miner that is outperforming. Big volume.
SLW 39.31 +1.02
TRE 6.72 +0.09

AGQ 144.57 +6.60 (4.78%). ProShares Ultra Silver. Tested spike on November 9. Taking profits after big run this week. Sold at 144.30 for ~15.86 per share gain.

SLV 28.60 +0.67. 52 week high. Big run this week. Exceeded November 9 spike with tepid volume.