20051230 Tom PM

Nasdaq gapped down away from trading area. This is a big negative. Is now resting on 50 day moving average. Everything wants to head for breakout area of October.
Five day ARMS high but not high enough to put in a bottom. Looking
for 9 to 11.

AAPL 71.89 up .44. Went under swing low of yesterday with higher volume. .05 from low of 51 million share day and half that volume. Building cause down, confirmation will be over high of today and
gives it up. 50.30 wast last day of quality volume. December 14 had down volume ... wait for price up with no volume ... Needs a big volume down day. 73.82 on lighter volume could be a good short.
WMT 46.8 down .68. Consolidation.
UARM 38.31 down 1.55. Recent IPO. Possible buy at 24.
MCO 61.42 down .26. Buy at 54.
WDC 18.61 up .17. Broke out last week with gap higher. Buy at 15.

N 50.50 up .03 Canadian. Built cause since January 2004. Buy at 46.69 Canadian going for 55.
NDX 1645 down 10. Five week island top.
TIV 7.78 down .27. October 14 down with volume and wants to retest it at 5.52. Test will be successful with 20% lighter volume and close above low, then get on right side of trend, then can buy.
LF 11.65 down .04. Today it rejected the low price, but volume is a little too much this week. Need a sign of strength to buy. Not ready yet.
TRE Tom sold yesterday to get back principle.

20051229 Tom PM

RJET 14.99 up .49.
FUEL 2.69 down .02. Weekly high of 5.5 has not been tested. Wait a few days to buy.
MNG 2.35 up .28. Tom owns. Big breakout. Closed at high of day.
GG 22.60 up .88. Broke out again.
ADBE 36.92 up .05. Gap is 34.95. Will push into gap because closed .01 into breakout area and a little escalation in volume compared to last two days. So will fill the gap. Over 42 and there is real action.
HL 4.28 up .13. Ride it up to 4.71. Longer term $9.
FSII 4.59 up .24. Long base. Some volume came in today. Good looking stock. Over 5.01 and it runs.

Interest Rate Inversion

The two year treasury yield closed higher than the ten year treasury yield. To my knowledge, this is the only (somewhat) reliable forward-looking recession indicator.

Watch for noise in the press about how it is different this time, and get ready for trouble in the form of: credit card interest rates moving up (the short term rate) causing a consumer spending slow down, car financing rates going up causing more consumer spending slow down, business slowdown from less consumer spending, increasing mortgage defaults that push the housing bubble over the edge in a few markets, less demand for dollars, and quick moves in the metals.

Adjustable mortgages will adjust higher next week. Those with adjustable mortgages will be using more of their pay check to service their loan.

The consumer debt payment squeeze is happening. This will take a year to slosh around - it is not a short term event.

20051227 Tom AM

TRE Wait for retracement to buy at 4.57 or 3.60.
GLG Going up on air.
Oils coming off a little.
Golds three gap play all over the place. Means it will snap back then go right back up.

20051227 Me AM

Possible longs to hold a day or two.
AVNX Has built seven months of cause. Get in until end of week or Monday.
TRE HL
COGT May be ready to turn up.

Shipping watch list shorts. Watch the dividends.
TOPT TK

20051226 Loan Providers

Fundamentally loan origination should be slowing down because of higher interest rates.

ACF 25.88. Big volume down day late October at 22. Has gone up on lighter volume.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ACF
AmeriCredit Corp., a consumer finance company, engages in the purchase, retention, subsequent securitization, and servicing of finance receivables primarily in the United States. The company, through its branch network and strategic alliances with auto groups and banks, purchases retail installment contracts entered into by auto dealers with consumers, who are typically unable to obtain financing from traditional sources.

RDN 58.47. 52 week high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=RDN&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=m20,m50,m100,m200&a=m26-12-9,ss,r14,v&c=

PMI 40.96.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=pmi&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=m20,m50,m100,m200&a=m26-12-9,ss,r14,v&c=

MTG 65.78.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=mtg&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=m20,m50,m100,m200&a=m26-12-9,ss,r14,v&c=

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, Inc.

This fund concentrates on Asian debt that allows paying a divided. Dividend is currently 7.2% at stock price of 5.84 per share.

Support at 5.6. May touch 5.8 and bounce. A close above 6.10 and it goes for 6.7. Above that is blue sky. Trades under the symbol FAX.

20051223 Tom PM

Gold going back to 480 or 476.

AVNX 1.35 up .14 Nothing to stop this to 1.80. There is a gap at 1.74. Over 1.90 it can go to 3. Volume is coming in.
CIEN 3.08 up .25. High volume sign of strength.
SNDK 63.04 up 1.34. Volatile. Approaching highs with low volume. 65.24 watch for a short.
NGEN 2.80 down .04. Has been basing since April. Doesn't yet have up spikes.

CIEN 3.08 up .25. Building cause for a year. Once over 3.50 with volume then 3.80. Over 3.80 pull back to 3.50 then go to 6.50.
ACS 61 up 2.92. Has done 100% move. Rumors of takeover. Buy at 56.5 if it is not taken over.
JNJ 61.11 down .21. In the middle, no reason to buy now. 59s need to be tested.
SSTY .005 down .003.
BRKL 14.39 up .24. There was a buyer on 12/16, a week ago. Building cause since July 2003. May go up to 16.71. 2.4% dividend.

20051222 Me PM

KBX Started trading today. Miner has been trading on Toronto exchange.
INGR 11.6% of float is short.
TRE 5.20 up .58. Up 12.6% on double average daily volume. Close above 5. Hit my price target so sold it.
HANS 35.8% of float is short. Went long today.
SIGM 12.6% of float is short. Went long today for a short term trade.

20051222 Matt

Australia looks good.
Nikkei looks good. Up 5% in the past week.
ELNK Nice short term uptrend. Nearing resistance at 12.
SNE Up 3.5% up four times average daily volume.
MC Thin volume. Aggressive Japanese play.
HIT Thin volume. Aggressive Japanese play.
ACH China aluminum. Volume has been coming in to stock. 2.8% dividend.
ECLG Try to buy on pullback at 18.80.
BBBB Chart not as nice as ECLG.
CFW 7.64 up .38. Above average volume. RSI
overbought. Wait for pullback to buy.
EOC RSI at 26. Yesterday closed below 50 day movingaverage and above it today. Looks good.
WTR Fantastic weekly chart. Short term topping.

20051222 Tom PM

Expect pullback in market.
Gold may hit 512 tomorrow then pull back.
VLO 53.38 up .46. Going up on lighter volume. Try toshort at 55.5.
ZHNE 2.08 up .01. Wants to go to 1.84.
INGR 50.56 up .95. Weekly looks good. Strong stock. Close to but not parabolic. Could go up five points. Stay long.
DESC 7.90 up .44. Looks okay.
RGLD 33.19 up 1.87. One of the strongest gold stockstechnically and fundamentally. Do not short this stock.
PCFG .30 down .01. Stay away.
SIFY 11.49 up .82. Strong stock. Signs of strengthall over. Setting up larger ABC structure. Hold the long. Can go back to 8.83. Don't chase it. Really nice set up for 2006. In 2000 was $450. Try to enter
at 8.90.

20051222 Tom AM

AKAM Not a break out. Taking out highs without volume. Will come back to 17.36.

20051221 Tom PM

GM 19.05 down .8. Volume accelerating on way down. If it gets into 20.60 then it can go back up.
TOO 27.70 up .19. Volume on the way down. Not a long.
CHS 42.97 down .05. Rejected lower price.

KGC 8.48 up .28. Strong stock. Not a short.
CPST 3.12. Wait for lower price to buy.
ANN 34.43 up .69. Is staying at the highs. Not a short. There has not been a down day with volume. Quality volume on way up. Wants to go higher.
CAH 68.12 down .13. At resistance. Will get back up to 76.
TMTA 1.14. Coming back down.
X 45.49 up 1.55. Up with volume.

20051220 Tom AM

Market has more downside even though volume is lighter. Do not be buying.
AOB Volume off the top.
KBH Down volume has been light. Wants to go up. Bizarre.
BZH 25% short. Going higher.
GM Breaking lows.
GFI Going down on lighter volume for next couple weeks. Can go down to 14.07.
DISH Watch for a buy.
RTP Can go up another 4%. Strong stock.

20051220 Me AM

SIFY 10.24. Possible short.
IRIS 22.36. Closed below 50 day moving average.

TRE 4.79. Touched new 52 week high with good volume. Strong gold stock run Jim Sinclair. Over $5 and it becomes marginable and can move higher even faster. Uptrend has not broken, and is not pulling back with other golds/market. In general it is way too late to be buying gold stocks. Bought 10,000 at 4.52 and 4.53 during the dip in the afternoon.
GRS 11.21. Another strong gold stock that is not pulling back.
SLW 5.14. Third pick for a strong miner.

Exchange Traded Fund On Steroids

New York Times has interesting article on new exchange traded funds.

PowerShares Capital Management, a small but fast-growing issuer of exchange-traded funds, the increasingly popular alternative to traditional mutual funds, has been the main innovator in this arena. Based in Wheaton, Ill., it has started a series of index funds that it calls X.T.F.'s and whose goal is to beat benchmark indexes.

A few sites for researching exchange traded and index funds.

20051219 Marc

PFE Big pharmas are done though they are bouncing.
ELN 13.25. Buy here or at 13. Expect to go much higher.
ARNA 13.94. Not a short now. Wait for it to get into gap at 13.34.
VCLK 18.48. Candle up gapped through 50 day moving average. Now is time to buy this break out.
REDF 18.54. For short wait for it to break below 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has been bounce point past few months.
IRIS 22.36. Closed below 50 day moving average. Going down to 200 day moving average at 18. Short here stop at 24.25.
PSUN 23.84. Retailer. Below 50 day moving average and closed below 200 day moving average.

OTTR 29.49. 3.7% divident. Intermediate term sideways pattern. Wait to buy.
SYNC 5.11. Price has been flat because Nokia offered to buy them at 5.25.
MCHX 25.57. Hit 52 week high and left a tail. High short interest. Stochastics turning down. Buy at 24.30 to 25.

BRCM 47.01 down 2.01. Average volume.
BTUI 13.03. Below 50 day moving average. Stochastics oversold.
PRX 30.23. Back down into the gap on very high volume after gapping up yesterday. Bearish will consolidate or go lower.
RTK 3.93. May go higher. Can buy at 3.55.

20051219 Tom PM

Nasdaq is correcting, down nearly 30.
GM 21.05 down .84. Watch how it hits 20.60.
GERN 8.63 down .11. Gap is open can go into 7. Confluence 9.49 to 8.12. The trend has not yet changed (macd, 3x3 moving average).
SBUX 30.65 down .54. Watch at 30.33, December 1 swing low, what it does - may bounce there.
AMZN 48.37 down .84. 47.86 is not level to watch. Had big sign of strength on November 18.
TRE 4.79 up .49.
GLW 20.05 down .94. Went up without volume. Can go back to 16.61.
NGEN 2.61 down .11. Next level is 2.41. Needs sign of strength to change downtrend.
SUNW 4.31 down .12.
PD 140.36 down .64. Strong stock.
IFUE 1.86 down .08.

20051219 Me PM

TRE 4.79. Hit new high of 4.84. Opened at 4.38. Double the average daily volume. Keeps hitting highs on volume. If this closes over 5 and becomes marginable, there could be more buying power come in.
DOVR 10. Traded down to 8.50 and looked like it would close below IPO price of 10, but someone again held it up at the last minute.
GM 21.05 down .84. About average daily volume. Dividend over 9%.

20051219 Me AM

TRE Up 10%.

20051219 Tom AM

Metals will go sideways for a couple weeks.
ASTM 2.19 down .02. Building cause since 2000.
MEDX 11.69 down .06. Action here.
GE 36.06. Will go with market.
DRL 10.74. Not a long. Volume off the top. Big problems with this stock.
VLO 52.27. Stock split last Friday. Wants to go to 50 in a couple weeks. Setting up ABC down.
GSS 2.40. They did a secondary and have money on the books. In range, lower end 2.26.
GRS and TRE are on a tear.

20051218 Me

The metals are taking their time pulling back. Shorting NEM has not been as profitable as expected. The dollare pulling back is helping slow the fall of the metals.
AKS held up better than expected last week. Maybe the retracement will not be so bad.
BCE Nice dividend of 4.9%.
COGT Up 11.3% Friday.
MCHX Has been hugging 25 on average volume. RSI, stochastics, and MACD may be starting to turn down.
TRE Made a huge percentage move up while metals have started to fall.
RSP S&P 500 equi-weighted exchange traded fund. At all time high.
DOVR A tecent IPO has been held at the offering price of 10. Traded 2,500 shares on Friday. I wonder how long this can be held up.

IPO Withdrawals

Market has been strong, so it is curious these are being withdrawn.

Voyager Pharmaceutical Corporation has filed today with the SEC to withdraw their offering due to market conditions.

The IDT Spectrum Inc. offering has been postponed indefinitely.

20051213 Tom AM

Nasdaq showing sell signal. May be small ABC down.
XAU volume off the top yesterday. Will be a longer correction.
BBY Down 10%.
GLG 24.67 up .39. Relative strength to other golds. Volume is light.
CDE 4.12 off .08. Half way down to 3.57.
HL 3.74 off .03. Also going back. 3.32 is possible.

20051212 Tom PM

Gold did 1:1.618 intraday and is pulling back.
Dollar was weak.
AUY 5.49 up .17. Can go to 4.60.
NG 8.67 down .47.
RHHBY 79. Great looking chart. Buy at 73. Bird flu drug company.
INSM 1.49 up .03. 1.55 resistance.
AKS 8.08 down .10. Retracing. Gap is open at 7.4. Good setup.

20051212 Tom AM

NEM Can go higher.
CDE Can go higher.
MEDX 10.20 down .03. Not a long. Lower lows.
BGO 3.07 up .11. Tom sold this morning.
UTX 55.89 up .47. Needs more volume on way up. Will come back.
XAU Not much price spread means getting closer to pull back.
GLD 53.52 up 1.12.
Maybe a silver ETF will come out in the future.
BCE 23.73 up .05. 4.7% dividend.
PFE 20.51 down .09. Not a buy. Can go down to 15.
PTN 3.65 up .11. Wait to buy for pullback to 2.75.
REDF 21.73 up .83. Finished ABC today.

20051212 Me AM

Options expiry week.

PAAS silver stock may run a bit more, though it could already be done. These are going to sell off and likely soon, though less sellng that golds.
Golds short something in the sector.

Set top box chips: CNXT SIGM.

Oil looks to go back down. Watch the oil stocks: VLO, BTU, and driller RIG.

Volatile for intraday or swing: RIMM maybe go up.
CMTL maybe bounce.
DRTE

NMGC Doubled on volume. Possible short opportunity since it went above 5.
BOOM Possible short squeeze.
TIE short on opening bounce.

FWRD

8x8 Trading On Unreleased News

EGHT 1.7427 up .52 42.84%. After the close they announced a reseller agreement to Bell South. Someone traded on this news before it was released. This insider trading was blatant.

20051210 Tom PM

Oil went higher and closed off the high. Will go lower.
Metals extended and will retrace.
Gold within one dollar of 1:1.618 up. Will retrace.

MTXX 18.31 down 1.49. Volume heavy coming down. Not a buy. Problem child.
ITE 68.75 down 5.78. Down with big volume 3.4M. Made high today, 79.44, and coming off high with monster volume. Leads to vicious retracement. Can go down to 50 or 31 after a while. Watch how it sells off going into 56. If it comes all the way back up with lighter volume, then consider a short.
VLO 105.46 down 1.10. Rolling over. Doing a stock split. They are trying to hold it up.
GLG 24.57 down .81. Hit high today. Volume off the top. Will go down to 22.62.
FDG 38.79 up .39. Gapped down yesterday. Going back into gap. Will retest 35.

GLD Higher with with volume. Can retrace four dollars. Volume was high at the top here after a run up.
FWLT 36.34 up .01. Nice chart. Signs of strength. Price expansion with small angle so it can sustain. Close over 37 with volume and it can really escalate. Base building since 2003. Can go to 50 in a couple years.
GLW 21.16 up .04. Has been going up on lighter volume.
MLM 74. Higher volume on way down.
NMGC 8.68 up 4.88. Huge volume.
BOOM 28.76 up .02. Not a short. 65% short. Wants to go higher.
TIE 68.75 down 5.78. Hit high then off the top with volume. Can go down to 48.

20051207 Tom AM

Gold becoming asset class that people want to own. Funds like GLD are also taking some gold out of trading to back their fund.
GOOG Down to 400 with some volume. Can lead market down.
INTC 26.39 down .27. Put it on your list and watch it.
NEM 50.38 up 1.63.

20051206 Tom PM

Markets up then gave it up with lighter volume. Broad market wants to pull back.
NEM 48.75 up 1.91. Break out.
GLG AEM Same thing.
VLO 104.26 down .23. Volume lighter.
GOOG 404.54 down 1.51 on nearly double average daily volume. Has quality volume on the way down. Look at October 21. Wants to go to 346. November 29 showed a seller. Tomorrow should run in to 395. May get down to 378 and bounce.

CMTL Problem child.

20051206 Me

Market was up and is giving back some gains. Volume is going to be light.
Tomorrow can see more volatility being weire wally wednesday.
Am mostly flat, waiting for a possible market sell off.
GOOG looking weak so went short at 403.
Also short TASRE and VLO.
DOVR Recent IPO. Came back to IPO price and may break down.

20051206 Tom AM

Gold hit 514, the high from 1983. Expect a pull back. Above 514 with conviction looks for 774. Equities do not yet have enough buyers.
RCL 47. Not a buy.
SPNC 11.64. Good looking chart. Wait for pull back.
HGSI 9.37. Got smoked in October. Bottom fishing. Gaps above do not need to be filled. Everyone from March 2003 is in a losing position.
OGMBX 21.83. Metals mutual fund.
VLO 104.74 up .25. Tom went short this morning. CEO has done some selling.
APPX 37.12 up .44. Has had volume off the top. Up channel still in tact. This is chart is not clear, so stay away from it.
KBH 71.41 up .34. Can pull back. Fundamentally doing partnership with another company to build New Orleans.

20051202 PFG

LNG 1 to 39 in 2.5 years.
X 48.11. Can pull back to 45 or 46. Long term up.
IIJI High flyer down 18.35% on three times volume.
Gave back the upside run and more.
BFB Wine and distillery segment. All time high.
WFMI Strong fundamentals of many customers.
SBUX Strong fundamentals of many customers.