Thursday, August 30, 2007

20070830 PM

DJIA 13,238.73 -50.56
NASDAQ 2,565.30 +2.14
S&P 500 1,457.64 -6.12

FSLR 102.49 +6.7. Today got into gap, so going to 109.
NGD 5.55 +.81. No news. Possibly they are going to quickly get back the cash that was invested in a firm that is feeling the credit crunch.
ESV 54.97 -3.02 Ensco International Incorporated, NYSE, Sector: Energy Industry: Oil Well Services & Equipment

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

20070828 PM

DJIA 13,041.85 -280.28
NASDAQ 2,500.64 -60.61
S&P 500 1,432.36 -34.43
Markets had some volume going down.

Monday, August 27, 2007

20070827 PM, Tom

DJIA 13,322.13 -56.74
NASDAQ 2,561.25 -15.44
S&P 500 1,466.79 -12.58
Light summer volume, which could allow price swings either way. Later this week prices could rise into the long holiday weekend.

FXI 153.07 +9.43. Set up to go higher to 172.
MRVL 15.39 -.36. Going to 11.
BCON 1.66 +.22. Can retest 2.37.
BDCO 3.77 +.37. Watch volume at 3.93 for potential run to 4.65 (May 29, 2007).
RMDX 2.09 +.03. Going to 2.28 from Sep 11, 2006. If it passes that with volume then action.
RMD 41.76 -.21. Volume is drying up - a good sign.
IBN 43.98 -1.51. Consolidating, maybe a quick short here.
RIG 102.38 -1.56. Try to short near 105.

WLGC 1.58 +.24. Word is they got a patent last week that can be leveraged for licensing payments from other tech companies.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

20070823 PM

DJIND 13,235.88 -0.25 (0.00%) 443,858,000
NASDAQ 2,541.70 -11.10 (-0.43%) 816,377,400
S&P 500 1,462.50 -1.57 (-0.11%) 2,530,699,200
Countrywide recieved $2B from Bank of America in form of loan that can convert to stock. This gapped up the markets, which traded lower throughout the day. Widely reported that BofA got a good deal. Good deals in all markets will happen over the next year+ for those with cash.

MR 32.88 -1.60. Weak showing today.


SRS 98.68 +1.93. Bullish engulfing. Bought at 97.2. Real estate is toast, so would this could be held for a year+. Wide intraday volatility can take out trailing stops.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

20070821 PM

DJIA 13,090.86 -30.49
NASDAQ 2,521.30 +12.71
S&P 500 1,447.12 +1.57
Markets slightly weakened and may not want to bounce the next few weeks ... instead go back down now. Let's see what the next couple days bring.

Monday, August 20, 2007

20070820 PM

DJIA 13,121.35 42.27 Can test 13,500.
NASDAQ 2,508.59 3.56
S&P 500 1,445.55 -0.39 Can test 1480.
Markets were slightly higher on lighter volume.

GBN 2.07 +.02. Rejected 1.82 last week. Ready to buy.

CHL 56.34 +1.23. Can bounce to 60, which potentially will double top with lighter volume.
ELOY 16 +2.93. Good volume and big price spread today.
MDG 24.98 +.86. Fundamentally has hostile take over bid they are rejecting. Going up into June 28 2007 gap that had big volume and big price spread.
TMY 1.99 +.02. Held up well last week. Has options. 52 week: 5.18 .. 1.04.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Countrywide

Countrywide Draws On Credit Line
Countrywide Financial Corp. drew down an entire $11.5 billion line of credit to boost its cash position and said it would shift its mortgage lending business into its bank unit, moves that acknowledge the sharp funding pressure on the largest U.S. mortgage lender.
...


FED rate changes have reduced lending costs for overnight loans to banks. This helps banks, not all lenders. This move by Countrywide will allow them to have access to loans like other banks. This is a smart move by Countrywide. Loan originators who can't do this will continue to be squeezed.

CFC 21.43 +2.48. This may be a several week bounce to 25 and 29, with volatility.

Friday, August 17, 2007

20070817 Tom PM

DJIA 13,079.08 +233.30 Can go to 13,500.
NASDAQ 2,505.03 +53.96 Can go to 2600.
S&P 500 1,445.94 +34.67 Can go to 1480.
This week had huge down volume. This morning banks got a temporary reprieve via fed rate cut.

GS 175 +5.15. Can bounce to 198 from July 26, 2007.
NGD 4.83 +.09. They have $160M capital at risk, though intend to continue their projects.
XOM 84.14 +3.47. Can bounce to 87 then pull back.
MO 67.59 +1.23. Will bounce.

1:52

Thursday, August 16, 2007

20070816 Tom PM

DJIA 12,845.78 -15.69 Will bounce to 13170. Had lows with volume, so will go back down. TICK -1325
NASDAQ 2,451.07 -7.76 Lows with volume. Will bounce to 2550.
S&P 500 1,411.27 4.57 Made intermediate bottom. Will bounce.
Option expiry this week.


LMC 9.88 -.65. Good test of March 5. Metals were taken apart.
AEM 37.19 -1.38. Buy.
INTC 23.10 -.12. Can bounce to 26.52 from July 17.
FCX 73.07 -4.8. Buy near 63.
NLY 14.03 +.88. 6.8% dividend. Mortgage.
PGH 16.76 -.34. 17% dividend. Canadian energy trust.
HTE 25.66 -.94. 16% dividend. Energy trust.

ERJ 42 +.11. 1.7% dividend. Closed gap from August 2, 2006. Look to buy.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

20070815 PM, TICK, cocoa

DJIA 12,861.47 -167.45
NASDAQ 2,458.83 -40.29
S&P 500 1,406.70 -19.84 Will test 1374 from March 2007.

Today TICK indicator hit -1400 showing some fear. Need another similar number to get an intermediate bottom in this downtrend. Then it can bounce.

Would like to research a way to invest in cocoa producers.
Growing Asia Mkt To Fuel Demand For West African Cocoa
Asian producers such as Indonesia may boost cocoa production to meet the strong demand growth expected in the next five years, but the region might find it difficult to source enough good quality West African beans which is an essential blend in chocolate production.
"West African beans will be the most sought-after due to a lack of good quality cocoa produced in Asia," said Yee Chow Boi, honorary secretary of the Singapore-based Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA).

20070814 Tom PM

DJIA 13,028.92 -207.61 Going to 12,700.
NASDAQ 2,499.12 -43.11
S&P 500 1,426.54 -26.38 Going to March lows of 1370.

TMA 7.61 -6.67. Lender. 52 week high 28.4. "Thornburg Mortgage President: No Plans To File Chapter 11"
DUG 51.25 +.65. Going to high volume day fo 55.8 then to 60.
RBY 1.81 -.16. Wait to buy.
AKAM 32.35 -1.48. Not a long. Can go to 16.
SO 35.05. 4.5% dividend. Strong. Buy around 34.5.
LMC 11.56. Good numbers including eurozinc, buying rno. Wait for 11 to buy.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Chinese Fire Sale (Deflationary Argument)

Chinese Fire Sale
So why is the U.S. housing market so crucial to the global economy? Simply because asset inflation, chiefly in real estate, has been the most potent force buoying the domestic economy. Let home values continue to fall, though, and it will trigger a severe recession in the U.S. with effects that would reverberate around the world. China, for one, unable to idle hundreds of millions of workers, would glut the world with distress goods.
...


DJIA 13,108.75 -127.78
NASDAQ 2,522.32 -19.91
S&P 500 1,438.12 -14.80
DUG PROSHARES TR ULTRASHRT O&G -0.34%
SKF PROSHARES TR ULTRASHRT FINL 2.82%

Monday, August 13, 2007

20070813 Tom PM

DJIA 13,236.53 -3.01 Going to 12,600.
NASDAQ 2,542.23 -2.66
S&P 500 1,452.92 -0.72 Going to 1427 then 1373 then 1224.

NGD 6.51 -.03. Unhedged, raised $400M financing two months ago. Will be in production in 1.5 years. Valuation goes up closer to production.
GTI 14.92 -.72. Short was today. Wants to test May 03 2007 low of 10.56.

HL 7.53 +.51. Getting closer to a buy. Is back in the range from February.

CDE 3.86 -.23.
TRE 5.65 +.38.
GBN 2.44 -.01. Can test 2.2.
Bought EMCHS AUG 18, 2007 $18.000 CALL for EMC's IPO of VMWare.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

20070809 Tom PM

DJIA 13,270.68 -387.18
NASDAQ 2,556.49 -56.49
S&P 500 1,453.10 -44.39

ADI 37.81 -.22. Had big down volume on May 23, 2007. Short.
AEM 44.15 -.51. Very strong gold stock. Looks like it can go higher, but can consolidate.
NVDA 46.13 +.54. Good numbers after close - beat by 30%. Is over highs.
CTX 38.68 +.1. Counter trend bounce in housing. This sector will go lower. Longer term CTX can go to 13.
SKF 85 +4.69. Twice inverse of financials. Going to 100.
NFG 43.98 -1.26. Will first step down to 41.25 with volume of several days ago.
HL 6.7 -.91. Looks like it can go lower.
GRS 10.84 +.44. Numbers tonight. Recently had downside volume.

Markets Give Up Futures-Induced Spike, GNCMA

The run-up in the last half-hour of yesterday's session has been given back.



Swing short of GNCMA on the pop up this morning.


Update 4:09 PM: trailing stop quickly closed this position at 12.53 for a tiny gain. GNCMA closed up for the day.

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

20070808 Tom PM

DJIA 13,657.77 153.47
NASDAQ 2,612.98 51.38
S&P 500 1,497.48 20.77

SKF 80.31 -3.23. Can buy here. Will retest 93.
PGNX 24.31 +1.56. Biotech, had numbers, has built cause. Can run to 30.25 - highs this year.
AES 19.19 +.86. Try to short at 21. Can go a lot lower in longer time frame. Support at 16.
ANO 2.86 -.04. Has been hugging line building cause, so wants to go higher. South African gold miner.
VGZ 4.75 +.25. Going to 5.59 from July 12.
TGB 5.30 -.12. Pushing highs with volumes.

ValueRich

ValueRich is a recent low-priced IPO. With the additional overhead for reporting and auditing of public companies, was the little money raised worth the future regulatory headaches?

West Palm Beach, FL-based ValueRich has raised $5.7M in an IPO and is trading tomorrow on the American Stock Exchange as IVA. The company published a financial industry magazine, publishes a web site devoted to small cap stocks, IPOs and the like.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

20070807 PM

DJIA 13,504.30 35.52
NASDAQ 2,561.60 14.27 ABC down to 2350 in March 2007.
S&P 500 1,476.71 9.04
Financials doing dead cat bounce.

Ocean Freight Costs Seen High Next Two Years
Ocean freight costs may remain high over the next two years, as demand for foodstuffs, iron ore and coal in China and India is expected to stay robust, Credit Suisse said Monday in an equity research report on Asia's dry bulk shipping sector.

The report estimates global dry bulk trade demand will grow 5% annually until

2010. The major dry bulk items are iron, coal and grains.

As a result of this high demand, ocean freight rates will continue to gain in the second half of 2007. In 2008, freight rates may rise by 5% on year, while an oversupply of vessels may slow down growth in the second half of 2009.

...

Monday, August 06, 2007

20070806 Tom PM

DJIA 13,468.78 +286.87
NASDAQ 2,547.33 +36.08
S&P 500 1,467.67 +34.61 Can counter-trend bounce to 1488.

WYNN 107.39 +6.33. Good numbers after hours.
TCK 41.75 -.46. Getting close to a buy.
LMC 12.09 -.24. Had high without volume. Can buy at 11.8 with tight stop.
HMY 11.02 -2.45. Bad numbers and CEO resigned. Can test 10 and 9.
XLF 33.7 +1.64. Financial sector fund. Counter-trend bounce to 35 or 36.
SKF 85.87 -6.22. Will go lower to 80, counter-trending. Longer term this is a buy.
JBHT 26.88 -.33. Rejected lower price today. Bouncing to 28.5.
TWM 74.65 -1.25. Ultrashort Russell2000 Proshares. Today hit 78.88. Going to 88 then 90.

20070806 Tom AM

DJIA 13,248.89 +66.98
NASDAQ 2,511.76 +0.51
S&P 500 1,437.90 +4.84

HOV 11.75 -27. Short interest is 65%. Look to short at 18.
BZH 10.76 -.54. Accused of fraud. Going to go bankrupt and to zero.
CTX 33.54 -1.77. Today will test 33.13 on lighter volume and then bounce.
BSC 104.19 -4.16. Going lower.
SWC 8.41 -.15. Close at 8.79 with lighter volume at end of week, then it is a buy. Long term going to 18. Still hedged.
FDG 30.01 -2.25. 8.1% dividend. Can test 25.5.
FBALX 20.14 -.38. Fidelity Balanced Fund. Can't get volume on these funds.
DUG 55.13 +2.31. Going to 75 from March 5, 2007.

SP500 broke 200 day moving average.
Nasdaq looking to break 200 day moving average.
Russell2000 already broke 200 day moving average.

DJIA 13,184.92 3.01
NASDAQ 2,493.04 -18.21
S&P 500 1,430.54 -2.52

Friday, August 03, 2007

20070803 Tom PM

DJIA 13,180.85 -282.48
NASDAQ 2,511.25 -64.73
S&P 500 1,432.83 -39.37

TSO 45.42 -2.9 Stay away from the oil sector.
C 45.72 -1.52. Don't buy in a bear market. Going to 42 then lower.
DUG 52.82 +3.45 Double inverse oil sector. Going to 69.
TIE 31.88 -.61 Had good volume at 39.
LOW 27.45 -1.02 Wants to go to 26 - with volume then going lower.
RGLD 26.54 +.37 Buy at 24.85.
AAPL 131.85 -4.64. Going to 116.

Ultrashort Real Estate Proshares

SRS:AMEX

112.00 +6.82 6.48%

The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.




... the Composite 10-City and Composite 20-City indices once again saw month over month and year over year declines in May. ...