20110325 Weekend

Dow 12,220.59 +50.03
Nasdaq 2,743.06 +6.64
SP500 1,313.80 +4.14
10-YrBond 3.44% +0.04

Margin was increased 4X on futures on Japanese stock market. This may reduce severity of some recent wild swings.
Portugal is next Eurpean country in line for a bailout.

Gold new all-time high.
Silver touched 38 closing week with nearly $2 gain. Margin was increased on silver futures exchange. Am looking to hedge some long miner positions by selling calls.
Copper has made a head and shoulders pattern. Some will keep an eye on this.
Oil closed at 105.52. Pump prices headed into $4 territory.
After trading in 75s, dollar closed week at 76.16.

USA housing prices continue to fall. Look for another 20% decline before bargains will be widespread. This will take at least another few years. Rising interest rates could accelerate the time frame.

GLD 139.26 +0.04
SLV 36.39 +0.27
PTM 20.58 -0.10

XLE 78.69 +0.70
XLF 16.34 +0.05
VXX 30.37 -0.04

UUP 21.88 +0.14. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish. This two year chart speaks for itself. It will bounce ... somewhere.







GG 48.90 +0.03
UXG 8.48 -0.06
VGZ 3.87 -0.03

20110323 1110

DJIA 11,996.38 -22.25
NASDAQ 2,667.96 -15.91
SP500 1,287.37 -6.40

Early weakness in the indices is useful for the bull case.

Gold and silver have broken above resistance. There could be explosive moves higher the next week.

RTRAF 2.55 +0.01. Took another nibble at 2.51.

20110321 PM

Dow 12,036.53 +178.01
Nasdaq 2,692.09 +48.42
SP500 1,298.38 +19.18
30-yrBond 4.45% +0.02

Indices gapped higher and ran higher in the first half hour. Stagnate the remainder of the day. Precious metals higher. Some miners sharply higher.

GLD 139.14 +0.77
SLV 35.30 +1.03 (3.01%)
PTM 20.56 +0.47 (2.34%)

XLE 77.68 +2.29 (3.04%)
XLF 16.34 +0.07
VXX 32.67 -2.69 (7.60%)

ANO 1.22 +0.11 (9.91%)
MDW 1.86 +0.14 (8.14%)

RTRAF 2.65 +0.24 (10.0%). Romarco Minerals Inc. Started a small tracking position at 2.60.
VGZ 3.86 +0.62 (19.14%)

20110321 1426

DJIA 12,034.71 +176.19
NASDAQ 2,691.96 +48.29
SP500 1,298.14 +18.94

After morning ramp higher, indices have flat-lined for the past few hours.

VGZ 3.71 +0.4700 (14.5%). Vista Gold Corp. Outperforming other miners, which are also higher.

20110321 1342

DJIA 12,034.18 +175.66
NASDAQ 2,688.13 +44.46
SP500 1,297.17 +17.97

Dollar lower. Precious metals and oil higher.

RTRAF 2.60 +0.19. Romarco Minerals Inc. Started a small tracking position at 2.60.

20110318 Weekend, Romarco Minerals, Tinka Resources

Dow 11,858.52 +83.93
Nasdaq 2,643.67 +7.62
SP500 1,279.20 +5.48
10-YrBond 3.28% +0.03

Japanese tsunami and nuclear problems continue. Big volatility. The US Dollar no longer seems to be the must-have safe haven item.

GLD 138.37 +1.40
SLV 34.27 +0.76
PTM 20.09 +0.17

XLE 75.39 -0.35
XLF 16.27 +0.23
VXX 35.36 -1.12


Mining long shots:
R 2.46 +.06. Romarco Minerals Inc. Toronto Stock Exchange. 52 week range 1.530 - 2.880.
TKRFF 0.48 +0.05. TINKA RESOURCES LTD. 52 week range 0.12 - 0.54.

20110316 PM

Dow 11,613.30 -242.12
Nasdaq 2,616.82 -50.51
SP500 1,256.88 -24.99
30-yrBond 4.39% -0.08

GLD 136.24 -0.03
SLV 33.37 -0.24
PTM 19.85 -0.10

XLE 73.75 -1.20
XLF 15.90 -0.30
VXX 37.63 +2.89

Continuing uncertainty in ability to safely shut down damaged nuclear power plants in Japan. Japanese Yen has been strengthening due to expectation of Japan selling their US Treasury debt holdings and repatriating Yen for reconstruction purposes. When will Japan's central bank intervene to weaken the Yen?
FXY 123.71 +1.46. CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust. Big volume. Multi-year high.
YCL 34.52 +0.80. ProShares Ultra Yen. Illiquid.
YCS 15.05 -0.38. ProShares UltraShort Yen.

The March 5 issue of Barron's had several book reviews. I was struck by Richard A. Epstein's defense of financial fraud:

The guarantee offered by the clearinghouses will itself become a potential source of systemic risk, and putting these trades into an exchange straitjacket could hamper financial innovation

Clearinghouses have multiple benefits, some of which are:
transparent price quotes;
nightly mark-to-market;
margin calls;
clearinghouse guarantee of performance.

Without clearinghouses, we are left with a promise that may be backed by nothing. AIG's insurance-like promises had no financial backing without a reasonable means to perform, and were therefore fraudulent. Mr. Epstein's view that a clearinghouse would hamper "financial innovation" is simply cheer leading for more financial fraud at the expense of the American taxpayers.

20110311 Weekend

Dow 12,044.40 +59.79
Nasdaq 2,715.61 +14.59
SP500 1,304.28 +9.17

Large Japanese earthquake and resulting tsunami.

Dollar closed at 76.73, down .51. Considering the turmoil around the world, it appears the US dollar is less of a safety play than years past.
Friday morning gold tested and rejected 1405. Metals dip buyers were in action today. This close above 1400 indicates a consolidation. Friday morning silver tested and rejected 34. Silver had a nearly $2 price range today! The silver shorts had better have been covering today, as this dramatic price swing in silver sets up a possible quick run to $40 is possible. A consolidation in silver is more likely.
Gold resistance is 1422 then 1435. Silver resistance, as demonstrated in the last hour of trading today, is 36 then 36.75.

Equities and commodities sold off before the open Thursday and gapped down in the regular trading session, trapping many who were long.

GLD 138.22 +0.45
SLV 35.03 +0.67
PTM 20.85 +0.17

XLE 75.11 +1.28
XLF 16.54 +0.11
VXX 33.01 -0.91


Barron's magazine this week tries to spin the fact that the Federal Reserve is the largest holder of US government debt.

Completely ignores the Fed:

Treasuries Slip on Japan Fears By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
"Japan is the second-largest holder of Treasury securities, with $882 billion at the end of 2010, following China's $1.16 trillion, according to U.S. Treasury data."

Uses the word "foreign" to exclude the Fed. The actions of the Fed will not be invisible, "foreign" or not:

Stocks Fall 1% on the Week as Momentum Flags By KOPIN TAN
"It doesn't help that Japan, the second-largest foreign buyer of U.S. debt, might now sell a portion of its $1 trillion stash in U.S. bills to help fund reconstruction after its worst earthquake on record."

20110309 PM

Dow 12,213.09 -1.29
Nasdaq 2,751.72 -14.05
SP500 1,320.02 -1.80
10-YrBond 3.47% -0.08

Copper and cotton are pulling off their highs.
Some miners had sharp pullbacks from their recent highs.

GLD 139.41 +0.05
SLV 35.27 +0.09
PTM 21.14 -0.06

XLE 76.62 -0.53
XLF 16.77 -0.00
VXX 32.25 +0.44

20110308 PM

Dow 12,214.38 +124.35
Nasdaq 2,765.77 +20.14
SP500 1,321.82 +11.69
30-yrBond 4.66% +0.05

Dollar higher.
Stock indices were slightly lower then turned positive to recover yesterday's sell off. This is strong price action.

GLD 139.36 -0.36
SLV 35.18 -0.05
PTM 21.20 -0.17

XLE 77.15 -0.64
XLF 16.77 +0.36
VXX 31.81 -0.68

EXK 9.94 -0.26. Early weakness to test Monday's opening gap higher. Quick bounce off those lows, stabilized, and now looks good. Went long at 9.78 this morning. Stop at morning low of 9.34. Expect further price choppiness. This afternoon sold March 10 covered calls at .45.
GPL 4.87 -0.09
MDW 2.25 -0.14. Bought at 2.22 before close.
OKOFF 2.68 -0.09
UXG 7.94 -0.19
VGZ 3.74 -0.11

GOLD 73.75 -3.26. Randgold Resources Ltd. Potential buy after regional instability subsides.
JDSU 25.38 -0.11. Down 10% after hours. Has high volume high at 29.12. Potential buy at 17.5 in a couple months.

20110307 PM

DJIA 12,090.03 -79.85
NASDAQ 2,745.63 -39.04
SP500 1,310.13 -11.02
30-yrBond 4.61% +0.01

Dollar tested 76.15 then recovered to close at 76.48. This pressured commodities.

GLD 139.72 +0.37
SLV 35.23 +0.54
PTM 21.37 -0.48

XLE 77.79 -0.55
XLF 16.41 -0.11
VXX 32.49 +0.83

GPL 4.96 +0.41 (9.0%). News of increased resources.
NUGT 36.85 -0.49. Day range 36.62 - 38.41. Sold at 36.88 for 1.18 per share loss. Trailing stop sold this position today.
OKOFF 2.77 -0.09. Bought at 2.89.
UXG 8.13 +0.07
VGZ 3.85 +0.18. Bought at 3.8.

EXK 10.20 +0.86 (9.2%)
MDW 2.39 +0.27 (12.74%). Closed at three year high.
TRE 6.35 -0.15

20110307 AM

Overnight metals are higher. Gold +6 and silver +.76. Silver is making another huge move higher.

Monday will see some miners with 10% upside moves.


Entered trailing stops for GPL and NUGT.
Entered order to sell covered calls on UXG.

Entered orders to buy EXK OKOFF VGZ.
EXK 9.34. Endeavour Silver Corporation. Very strong price action.

Watching TRE for potential entry in the coming weeks.

20110304 Weekend, Miners

Dow 12,169.88 -88.32
Nasdaq 2,784.67 -14.07
SP500 1,321.15 -9.82
10-YrBond 3.49% -0.08

Stock indices recovered half of the daily losses in the last half hour.
Dollar was slightly down at 76.4 and oil was slightly up at 104.42.

Silver closed at 35.67. 6th week higher. Up $2 this week. Next stop is $36.
Moving out of volatile silvers and into less volatile golds has had the anticipated effect of less volatility. Gold upside has also been less than silver.

Oil closed at nearly 105 per barrel. CME raised futures margins on oil and gasoline contracts. Will this slow the ascent of oil or just a pause to refresh the bulls?

GLD 139.35 +1.26
SLV 34.69 +1.28
PTM 21.85 +0.22

XLE 78.34 -0.50
XLF 16.52 -0.21
VXX 31.66 +0.78

GPL 4.55 +0.40 (9.64%). Will there be profit taking at 5? If silver pulls this higher early in week, will lighten up.
NUGT 37.34 +0.50
UXG 8.06 +0.21

SIMG 9.60 +0.24. Mid-week jump higher.
ZAGG 8.37 -0.12. Recovered part of the mid-week loss.

Miners, some speculative:
CEM.V 0.26 -0.03. Constantine Metal Resources Ltd.
CNSNF 0.2725 -0.0206. CONSTANTINE METAL RES LTD COM.

EXK 9.34 +1.00 (11.99%). Endeavour Silver Corp. Multi-year high. Buy on pull back to low 8s.
GRS 8.99 +0.09. GAMMON GOLD INC. Buy on a pull back, target 11+.
MDW 2.12 +0.21 (10.99%)
OKOFF 2.86 +0.09. ORKO SILVER CORP.
PGXPF 0.80 -0.01. PELANGIO EXPL INC. 52 week range 0.14 - 1.29.
SVM 14.53 +0.55. SILVERCORP METALS INC. Intraday 52 week high. Buy on pull back.
TRE 6.50 -0.06

20110302 PM

DOW 12066.80 +8.78
NASDAQ 2748.07 +10.66
SP500 1308.44 +2.11
10Yr.T-Note 3.464% +0.5

For the bulls, the indices made a nice recovery. Uncertainty with oil supplies couldn't keep the indices down.

GLD 139.92 -0.11
SLV 33.84 -0.03
PTM 21.92 +0.09

XLE 77.51 +0.44
XLF 16.39 +0.10
VXX 32.53 -0.08

Gold and silver were lower, then found a bid to close with a tiny loss. The dips are being bought.

GPL 4.31 -0.21. Sold 1/2 of the long position today to lock in gains. Day range 3.96 - 4.76. Looked over the cliff and turned higher. Support at 3.5.
NUGT 37.94 +0.06
UXG 8.01 +0.05

SIMG 9.69 +1.72 (21.58%). Silicon Image, Inc.
ZAGG 7.07 -2.23 (23.98%). ZAGG Incorporated.

20110302 1238

DJIA 12,070.17 +12.15
NASDAQ 2,751.30 +13.89
SP500 1,308.56 +2.23

Indices were slightly red and have recovered.

WTI Crude Oil above 101 (+2%). This will push pump prices to $4/gallon and slow economic recovery while pushing higher prices into products that are dependent on transportation.

GPL 4.11 -0.41. Trailing stop sold 1/2 of the long position at 4.07 for 1.19 per share gain. A close below 4 will find more selling down to 3.50.

Gold positions started yesterday:
NUGT 38.26 +0.38
UXG 8.08 +0.12

20110301 PM

DOW 12058.02 -168.32
NASDAQ 2737.41 -44.86
SP500 1306.33 -20.89

Energy divergence with sector stocks giving up price, while oil flirted with 100. Oil looks to go higher in the short term.
Precious metals higher. Gold made all time high. With no upside resistance, momentum money may now flow into gold.

GLD 140.03 +2.37
SLV 33.87 +0.76
PTM 21.83 +0.52

XLE 77.07 -1.47
XLF 16.49 -0.36
VXX 32.45 +2.27

GPL 4.52 +0.44.

NUGT 37.88 +1.19. Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x Shares. Long at 38.
UXG 7.96 +0.70. Yesterday had negative divergence due to news. Missed buying that dip. Went long today at 7.73.

20110301 1409

DJIA 12,102.29 -124.05
NASDAQ 2,744.64 -37.63
SP500 1,311.18 -16.04

Metals higher in face of broad index selling. Gold has been lagging the quick price advances of silver. Moving some money into gold miners to anticipate gold doing some catch-up to silver while providing less volatility than silver.

NUGT 38.00 +1.31. Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2x Shares. Long at 38.
UXG 7.74 +0.4799. Yesterday had negative divergence due to news. Missed buying that dip. Went long today at 7.73.