Friday, December 30, 2005

20051230 Tom PM

Nasdaq gapped down away from trading area. This is a big negative. Is now resting on 50 day moving average. Everything wants to head for breakout area of October.
Five day ARMS high but not high enough to put in a bottom. Looking
for 9 to 11.

AAPL 71.89 up .44. Went under swing low of yesterday with higher volume. .05 from low of 51 million share day and half that volume. Building cause down, confirmation will be over high of today and
gives it up. 50.30 wast last day of quality volume. December 14 had down volume ... wait for price up with no volume ... Needs a big volume down day. 73.82 on lighter volume could be a good short.
WMT 46.8 down .68. Consolidation.
UARM 38.31 down 1.55. Recent IPO. Possible buy at 24.
MCO 61.42 down .26. Buy at 54.
WDC 18.61 up .17. Broke out last week with gap higher. Buy at 15.

N 50.50 up .03 Canadian. Built cause since January 2004. Buy at 46.69 Canadian going for 55.
NDX 1645 down 10. Five week island top.
TIV 7.78 down .27. October 14 down with volume and wants to retest it at 5.52. Test will be successful with 20% lighter volume and close above low, then get on right side of trend, then can buy.
LF 11.65 down .04. Today it rejected the low price, but volume is a little too much this week. Need a sign of strength to buy. Not ready yet.
TRE Tom sold yesterday to get back principle.

Thursday, December 29, 2005

20051229 Tom PM

RJET 14.99 up .49.
FUEL 2.69 down .02. Weekly high of 5.5 has not been tested. Wait a few days to buy.
MNG 2.35 up .28. Tom owns. Big breakout. Closed at high of day.
GG 22.60 up .88. Broke out again.
ADBE 36.92 up .05. Gap is 34.95. Will push into gap because closed .01 into breakout area and a little escalation in volume compared to last two days. So will fill the gap. Over 42 and there is real action.
HL 4.28 up .13. Ride it up to 4.71. Longer term $9.
FSII 4.59 up .24. Long base. Some volume came in today. Good looking stock. Over 5.01 and it runs.

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Interest Rate Inversion

The two year treasury yield closed higher than the ten year treasury yield. To my knowledge, this is the only (somewhat) reliable forward-looking recession indicator.

Watch for noise in the press about how it is different this time, and get ready for trouble in the form of: credit card interest rates moving up (the short term rate) causing a consumer spending slow down, car financing rates going up causing more consumer spending slow down, business slowdown from less consumer spending, increasing mortgage defaults that push the housing bubble over the edge in a few markets, less demand for dollars, and quick moves in the metals.

Adjustable mortgages will adjust higher next week. Those with adjustable mortgages will be using more of their pay check to service their loan.

The consumer debt payment squeeze is happening. This will take a year to slosh around - it is not a short term event.

20051227 Tom AM

TRE Wait for retracement to buy at 4.57 or 3.60.
GLG Going up on air.
Oils coming off a little.
Golds three gap play all over the place. Means it will snap back then go right back up.

20051227 Me AM

Possible longs to hold a day or two.
AVNX Has built seven months of cause. Get in until end of week or Monday.
TRE HL
COGT May be ready to turn up.

Shipping watch list shorts. Watch the dividends.
TOPT TK

Monday, December 26, 2005

20051226 Loan Providers

Fundamentally loan origination should be slowing down because of higher interest rates.

ACF 25.88. Big volume down day late October at 22. Has gone up on lighter volume.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ACF
AmeriCredit Corp., a consumer finance company, engages in the purchase, retention, subsequent securitization, and servicing of finance receivables primarily in the United States. The company, through its branch network and strategic alliances with auto groups and banks, purchases retail installment contracts entered into by auto dealers with consumers, who are typically unable to obtain financing from traditional sources.

RDN 58.47. 52 week high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=RDN&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=m20,m50,m100,m200&a=m26-12-9,ss,r14,v&c=

PMI 40.96.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=pmi&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=m20,m50,m100,m200&a=m26-12-9,ss,r14,v&c=

MTG 65.78.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=mtg&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=m20,m50,m100,m200&a=m26-12-9,ss,r14,v&c=

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, Inc.

This fund concentrates on Asian debt that allows paying a divided. Dividend is currently 7.2% at stock price of 5.84 per share.

Support at 5.6. May touch 5.8 and bounce. A close above 6.10 and it goes for 6.7. Above that is blue sky. Trades under the symbol FAX.

Friday, December 23, 2005

20051223 Tom PM

Gold going back to 480 or 476.

AVNX 1.35 up .14 Nothing to stop this to 1.80. There is a gap at 1.74. Over 1.90 it can go to 3. Volume is coming in.
CIEN 3.08 up .25. High volume sign of strength.
SNDK 63.04 up 1.34. Volatile. Approaching highs with low volume. 65.24 watch for a short.
NGEN 2.80 down .04. Has been basing since April. Doesn't yet have up spikes.

CIEN 3.08 up .25. Building cause for a year. Once over 3.50 with volume then 3.80. Over 3.80 pull back to 3.50 then go to 6.50.
ACS 61 up 2.92. Has done 100% move. Rumors of takeover. Buy at 56.5 if it is not taken over.
JNJ 61.11 down .21. In the middle, no reason to buy now. 59s need to be tested.
SSTY .005 down .003.
BRKL 14.39 up .24. There was a buyer on 12/16, a week ago. Building cause since July 2003. May go up to 16.71. 2.4% dividend.

Thursday, December 22, 2005

20051222 Me PM

KBX Started trading today. Miner has been trading on Toronto exchange.
INGR 11.6% of float is short.
TRE 5.20 up .58. Up 12.6% on double average daily volume. Close above 5. Hit my price target so sold it.
HANS 35.8% of float is short. Went long today.
SIGM 12.6% of float is short. Went long today for a short term trade.

20051222 Matt

Australia looks good.
Nikkei looks good. Up 5% in the past week.
ELNK Nice short term uptrend. Nearing resistance at 12.
SNE Up 3.5% up four times average daily volume.
MC Thin volume. Aggressive Japanese play.
HIT Thin volume. Aggressive Japanese play.
ACH China aluminum. Volume has been coming in to stock. 2.8% dividend.
ECLG Try to buy on pullback at 18.80.
BBBB Chart not as nice as ECLG.
CFW 7.64 up .38. Above average volume. RSI
overbought. Wait for pullback to buy.
EOC RSI at 26. Yesterday closed below 50 day movingaverage and above it today. Looks good.
WTR Fantastic weekly chart. Short term topping.

20051222 Tom PM

Expect pullback in market.
Gold may hit 512 tomorrow then pull back.
VLO 53.38 up .46. Going up on lighter volume. Try toshort at 55.5.
ZHNE 2.08 up .01. Wants to go to 1.84.
INGR 50.56 up .95. Weekly looks good. Strong stock. Close to but not parabolic. Could go up five points. Stay long.
DESC 7.90 up .44. Looks okay.
RGLD 33.19 up 1.87. One of the strongest gold stockstechnically and fundamentally. Do not short this stock.
PCFG .30 down .01. Stay away.
SIFY 11.49 up .82. Strong stock. Signs of strengthall over. Setting up larger ABC structure. Hold the long. Can go back to 8.83. Don't chase it. Really nice set up for 2006. In 2000 was $450. Try to enter
at 8.90.

20051222 Tom AM

AKAM Not a break out. Taking out highs without volume. Will come back to 17.36.

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

20051221 Tom PM

GM 19.05 down .8. Volume accelerating on way down. If it gets into 20.60 then it can go back up.
TOO 27.70 up .19. Volume on the way down. Not a long.
CHS 42.97 down .05. Rejected lower price.

KGC 8.48 up .28. Strong stock. Not a short.
CPST 3.12. Wait for lower price to buy.
ANN 34.43 up .69. Is staying at the highs. Not a short. There has not been a down day with volume. Quality volume on way up. Wants to go higher.
CAH 68.12 down .13. At resistance. Will get back up to 76.
TMTA 1.14. Coming back down.
X 45.49 up 1.55. Up with volume.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

20051220 Tom AM

Market has more downside even though volume is lighter. Do not be buying.
AOB Volume off the top.
KBH Down volume has been light. Wants to go up. Bizarre.
BZH 25% short. Going higher.
GM Breaking lows.
GFI Going down on lighter volume for next couple weeks. Can go down to 14.07.
DISH Watch for a buy.
RTP Can go up another 4%. Strong stock.

20051220 Me AM

SIFY 10.24. Possible short.
IRIS 22.36. Closed below 50 day moving average.

TRE 4.79. Touched new 52 week high with good volume. Strong gold stock run Jim Sinclair. Over $5 and it becomes marginable and can move higher even faster. Uptrend has not broken, and is not pulling back with other golds/market. In general it is way too late to be buying gold stocks. Bought 10,000 at 4.52 and 4.53 during the dip in the afternoon.
GRS 11.21. Another strong gold stock that is not pulling back.
SLW 5.14. Third pick for a strong miner.

Exchange Traded Fund On Steroids

New York Times has interesting article on new exchange traded funds.

PowerShares Capital Management, a small but fast-growing issuer of exchange-traded funds, the increasingly popular alternative to traditional mutual funds, has been the main innovator in this arena. Based in Wheaton, Ill., it has started a series of index funds that it calls X.T.F.'s and whose goal is to beat benchmark indexes.

A few sites for researching exchange traded and index funds.

Monday, December 19, 2005

20051219 Marc

PFE Big pharmas are done though they are bouncing.
ELN 13.25. Buy here or at 13. Expect to go much higher.
ARNA 13.94. Not a short now. Wait for it to get into gap at 13.34.
VCLK 18.48. Candle up gapped through 50 day moving average. Now is time to buy this break out.
REDF 18.54. For short wait for it to break below 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has been bounce point past few months.
IRIS 22.36. Closed below 50 day moving average. Going down to 200 day moving average at 18. Short here stop at 24.25.
PSUN 23.84. Retailer. Below 50 day moving average and closed below 200 day moving average.

OTTR 29.49. 3.7% divident. Intermediate term sideways pattern. Wait to buy.
SYNC 5.11. Price has been flat because Nokia offered to buy them at 5.25.
MCHX 25.57. Hit 52 week high and left a tail. High short interest. Stochastics turning down. Buy at 24.30 to 25.

BRCM 47.01 down 2.01. Average volume.
BTUI 13.03. Below 50 day moving average. Stochastics oversold.
PRX 30.23. Back down into the gap on very high volume after gapping up yesterday. Bearish will consolidate or go lower.
RTK 3.93. May go higher. Can buy at 3.55.

20051219 Tom PM

Nasdaq is correcting, down nearly 30.
GM 21.05 down .84. Watch how it hits 20.60.
GERN 8.63 down .11. Gap is open can go into 7. Confluence 9.49 to 8.12. The trend has not yet changed (macd, 3x3 moving average).
SBUX 30.65 down .54. Watch at 30.33, December 1 swing low, what it does - may bounce there.
AMZN 48.37 down .84. 47.86 is not level to watch. Had big sign of strength on November 18.
TRE 4.79 up .49.
GLW 20.05 down .94. Went up without volume. Can go back to 16.61.
NGEN 2.61 down .11. Next level is 2.41. Needs sign of strength to change downtrend.
SUNW 4.31 down .12.
PD 140.36 down .64. Strong stock.
IFUE 1.86 down .08.

20051219 Me PM

TRE 4.79. Hit new high of 4.84. Opened at 4.38. Double the average daily volume. Keeps hitting highs on volume. If this closes over 5 and becomes marginable, there could be more buying power come in.
DOVR 10. Traded down to 8.50 and looked like it would close below IPO price of 10, but someone again held it up at the last minute.
GM 21.05 down .84. About average daily volume. Dividend over 9%.

20051219 Me AM

TRE Up 10%.

20051219 Tom AM

Metals will go sideways for a couple weeks.
ASTM 2.19 down .02. Building cause since 2000.
MEDX 11.69 down .06. Action here.
GE 36.06. Will go with market.
DRL 10.74. Not a long. Volume off the top. Big problems with this stock.
VLO 52.27. Stock split last Friday. Wants to go to 50 in a couple weeks. Setting up ABC down.
GSS 2.40. They did a secondary and have money on the books. In range, lower end 2.26.
GRS and TRE are on a tear.

Sunday, December 18, 2005

20051218 Me

The metals are taking their time pulling back. Shorting NEM has not been as profitable as expected. The dollare pulling back is helping slow the fall of the metals.
AKS held up better than expected last week. Maybe the retracement will not be so bad.
BCE Nice dividend of 4.9%.
COGT Up 11.3% Friday.
MCHX Has been hugging 25 on average volume. RSI, stochastics, and MACD may be starting to turn down.
TRE Made a huge percentage move up while metals have started to fall.
RSP S&P 500 equi-weighted exchange traded fund. At all time high.
DOVR A tecent IPO has been held at the offering price of 10. Traded 2,500 shares on Friday. I wonder how long this can be held up.

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

IPO Withdrawals

Market has been strong, so it is curious these are being withdrawn.

Voyager Pharmaceutical Corporation has filed today with the SEC to withdraw their offering due to market conditions.

The IDT Spectrum Inc. offering has been postponed indefinitely.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

20051213 Tom AM

Nasdaq showing sell signal. May be small ABC down.
XAU volume off the top yesterday. Will be a longer correction.
BBY Down 10%.
GLG 24.67 up .39. Relative strength to other golds. Volume is light.
CDE 4.12 off .08. Half way down to 3.57.
HL 3.74 off .03. Also going back. 3.32 is possible.

Monday, December 12, 2005

20051212 Tom PM

Gold did 1:1.618 intraday and is pulling back.
Dollar was weak.
AUY 5.49 up .17. Can go to 4.60.
NG 8.67 down .47.
RHHBY 79. Great looking chart. Buy at 73. Bird flu drug company.
INSM 1.49 up .03. 1.55 resistance.
AKS 8.08 down .10. Retracing. Gap is open at 7.4. Good setup.

20051212 Tom AM

NEM Can go higher.
CDE Can go higher.
MEDX 10.20 down .03. Not a long. Lower lows.
BGO 3.07 up .11. Tom sold this morning.
UTX 55.89 up .47. Needs more volume on way up. Will come back.
XAU Not much price spread means getting closer to pull back.
GLD 53.52 up 1.12.
Maybe a silver ETF will come out in the future.
BCE 23.73 up .05. 4.7% dividend.
PFE 20.51 down .09. Not a buy. Can go down to 15.
PTN 3.65 up .11. Wait to buy for pullback to 2.75.
REDF 21.73 up .83. Finished ABC today.

20051212 Me AM

Options expiry week.

PAAS silver stock may run a bit more, though it could already be done. These are going to sell off and likely soon, though less sellng that golds.
Golds short something in the sector.

Set top box chips: CNXT SIGM.

Oil looks to go back down. Watch the oil stocks: VLO, BTU, and driller RIG.

Volatile for intraday or swing: RIMM maybe go up.
CMTL maybe bounce.
DRTE

NMGC Doubled on volume. Possible short opportunity since it went above 5.
BOOM Possible short squeeze.
TIE short on opening bounce.

FWRD

Saturday, December 10, 2005

8x8 Trading On Unreleased News

EGHT 1.7427 up .52 42.84%. After the close they announced a reseller agreement to Bell South. Someone traded on this news before it was released. This insider trading was blatant.

Friday, December 09, 2005

20051210 Tom PM

Oil went higher and closed off the high. Will go lower.
Metals extended and will retrace.
Gold within one dollar of 1:1.618 up. Will retrace.

MTXX 18.31 down 1.49. Volume heavy coming down. Not a buy. Problem child.
ITE 68.75 down 5.78. Down with big volume 3.4M. Made high today, 79.44, and coming off high with monster volume. Leads to vicious retracement. Can go down to 50 or 31 after a while. Watch how it sells off going into 56. If it comes all the way back up with lighter volume, then consider a short.
VLO 105.46 down 1.10. Rolling over. Doing a stock split. They are trying to hold it up.
GLG 24.57 down .81. Hit high today. Volume off the top. Will go down to 22.62.
FDG 38.79 up .39. Gapped down yesterday. Going back into gap. Will retest 35.

GLD Higher with with volume. Can retrace four dollars. Volume was high at the top here after a run up.
FWLT 36.34 up .01. Nice chart. Signs of strength. Price expansion with small angle so it can sustain. Close over 37 with volume and it can really escalate. Base building since 2003. Can go to 50 in a couple years.
GLW 21.16 up .04. Has been going up on lighter volume.
MLM 74. Higher volume on way down.
NMGC 8.68 up 4.88. Huge volume.
BOOM 28.76 up .02. Not a short. 65% short. Wants to go higher.
TIE 68.75 down 5.78. Hit high then off the top with volume. Can go down to 48.

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

20051207 Tom AM

Gold becoming asset class that people want to own. Funds like GLD are also taking some gold out of trading to back their fund.
GOOG Down to 400 with some volume. Can lead market down.
INTC 26.39 down .27. Put it on your list and watch it.
NEM 50.38 up 1.63.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

20051206 Tom PM

Markets up then gave it up with lighter volume. Broad market wants to pull back.
NEM 48.75 up 1.91. Break out.
GLG AEM Same thing.
VLO 104.26 down .23. Volume lighter.
GOOG 404.54 down 1.51 on nearly double average daily volume. Has quality volume on the way down. Look at October 21. Wants to go to 346. November 29 showed a seller. Tomorrow should run in to 395. May get down to 378 and bounce.

CMTL Problem child.

20051206 Me

Market was up and is giving back some gains. Volume is going to be light.
Tomorrow can see more volatility being weire wally wednesday.
Am mostly flat, waiting for a possible market sell off.
GOOG looking weak so went short at 403.
Also short TASRE and VLO.
DOVR Recent IPO. Came back to IPO price and may break down.

20051206 Tom AM

Gold hit 514, the high from 1983. Expect a pull back. Above 514 with conviction looks for 774. Equities do not yet have enough buyers.
RCL 47. Not a buy.
SPNC 11.64. Good looking chart. Wait for pull back.
HGSI 9.37. Got smoked in October. Bottom fishing. Gaps above do not need to be filled. Everyone from March 2003 is in a losing position.
OGMBX 21.83. Metals mutual fund.
VLO 104.74 up .25. Tom went short this morning. CEO has done some selling.
APPX 37.12 up .44. Has had volume off the top. Up channel still in tact. This is chart is not clear, so stay away from it.
KBH 71.41 up .34. Can pull back. Fundamentally doing partnership with another company to build New Orleans.

Friday, December 02, 2005

20051202 PFG

LNG 1 to 39 in 2.5 years.
X 48.11. Can pull back to 45 or 46. Long term up.
IIJI High flyer down 18.35% on three times volume.
Gave back the upside run and more.
BFB Wine and distillery segment. All time high.
WFMI Strong fundamentals of many customers.
SBUX Strong fundamentals of many customers.

Friday, November 25, 2005

20051125 Me

Businees 2.0 had an article on internet domains and page clicks. "Master$ of therir Domain$". Mentioned MCHX as a public compay. 43% of the float is short.

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

20051123 Me

Consider these.
GXP 29.76. has been moving up with decent volume. 5.7% dividend. how will it handle resistance at 30.
HAL 65.5. short if oils go down next week.
TZIX 16.54 up .12. has climbed into the gap on lighter volume.
NLY up 3.9%. breaking out of the downtrend. has built cause for over a month. interest rate play. looks like a buy if interest rates don't go up. 8.9% of float is short. 4.2% dividend. .5 until it gets to bottom of gap.


Silvers to watch: PAAS SSRI WTZ. Try to buy on retracement lower.

20051123 Tom AM

VIVO 19.97 up .15. not a buy here though maybe soon.
IPII 17.09 up .67. in the middle area. may test 18.95. not a buy not a short here.
FORD 18.7 up 1.13. will go down to 15.35.
GG 21.26 down .27. can pull back to 22.
SNDA 20.45 up .25. not showing strength. wants to go lower.
CHINA 3.77 down .1. gapped up on open past few days.
BWNG 7 up .15. has quality volume on way up. can go a lot higher. not a short.
CTX 76.2 up .16. wait to short the homebuilders.

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

20051122 Tom AM

gold hit 500 this morning. whole number.
GSS sell on open.
window dressing starts next week.
YHOO 41.75. can pull back to 40 next couple days.
INTC 25.75 up .5. running to 30.
CRAY off the bottom.
GTW 2.97 flat. maybe buy at 2.70.
Q 5.04 down .01. extended. wait for 4.54.
ABX swap in to EGO or GRS or TRE.
BZH strong relative to other builders.
VLO may go up to 103 or 104. 105.36 is a shooting
star that may be tested.
CDE 4.64 up .05. look to buy at 4.24.

20051122 Me AM

IIJI gave up the high with volume. possible short.
NFLX 28.71 up .29 on half average daily volume.
STMP 23.98 up 1.95 on over three times average daily
volume. can be short squeeze? closed at high.
TZIX has been going up on lighter volume. for how
long?

Monday, November 21, 2005

20051121 Tom PM

SP volume light while price escalating.
some gold equities started next leg up.
XAU another high.
gold going up against every currency.
san francisco gold show is this weekend.
ASA 52.65 up 1.2%.
GSS off bottom today.
CIB 27.45 up .45.
TZIX 16.26 up .15.
X 40.66 up 2.04. wants to go to 42.
AKS 7.77 up .47. wants to go to 8.75.
GG will follow XAU up.
ILSE 17.99 up .55. nice set up. 22 is possible with more volume. 18.41 near term.
KBH 69.53 up 2. will bounce to 70.
BZH 68.67 down .47. had good volume. will dead cat bounce.
TOL 35.24 up 1.15. in bad shape.
EBAY broke topside.
GOOG 409.36. wants to move higher.

AFFX 51.82 up 2.24. is into the gap. ride it higher.

Thursday, November 17, 2005

20051117 Matt

market has been amazing four weeks.
buy the market on pull backs.
silver index highest close since 1977.
gold at eighteen year high.
SBUX earnings. great chart. cult like WFMI.
MRVL earnings. near all time high.
JLG 45.52 up 5.73 on six times volume.
UNP railroad. above 1997 high.
GDI 47.98 up 1.36. beautiful long term chart. 52 week high is 49.82. 8.6 short interest. light daily trading. price can explode.
BBSI likes the outsourcing sector. long uptrend. some big volume up spikes. 55,000 average shares per day.

20051117 Tom PM

gold up six.
MLM 74.99 up 1.99. in consolidation.
SIRI 7.32 down .07. did not hold high. will be right back up there.
HL 3.38 up .22. still has venezuela risk.
CNTF 13.43 up 1.61. 17 times average daily volume. resistance at 14.50.

20051117 Tom AM

metals are moving.
bearish on oils.
UPL 52.9. wait for short.
VLO 99.85. will go to 95. may first see 102.
MESA 11.74 up .58. had earnings. sell it. two days ago came off high with volume.
NEM 46.94 up .89. has some volume. will need time to go higher.
CTX wait for 71.20 for short opportunity.
SBUX 30.66 up .24. earnings tonight, so wait.
SYMC 18.45 down .34. had volume off the top. going down to 10.72 from march 2003.
GOLD 15.89 up .42. can go some higher short term.

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

20051116 Me PM

gold is running. check the trailing stops on metals.
HMY will likely test 52 week high tomorrow. if it opens flat or down, buy it for intraday trade. south african.
BGO can buy on open if flat or down. canadian.
SA same as other golds - try to buy on open to catch the acceleration.

20051116 Tom PM

gold up ten dollars. silver above eight.
TLT moving up.
ASA 50.62 up 2.46. has three more points upside. buy the pull back.
VLO 99.47 up 1.44. building cause for 95.
HMY 12.55 up .91. going to 14.
HL 3.16 up .10. volume today. watch volume at 3.33.
NEM 46.05 up 3.01 with volume.
BRKL dividend coming soon. not a buy.
USGL 2.60 up .50. will run for 2.82 tomorrow. watch the volume, as it can go to 3.50 with high volume.

VLO 99.47 up 1.44. held up today. going for 95.
OXY watch it at 77.28. wants to go to 71.
GFI 14.94 up 1.46. south african gold can run.
RIG 59.94 up 2.46. will test 62.
AMZN 45.30 up .85. in trading range.
NG 8.73 up .38. pushing highs with volume. nice setup.

20051116 Tom AM

dollar up and gold up seven.
MNG 1.62 up .22. can test 1.75. will need time to build more cause, then can go to 2.93.
TRMS 12.75. can go lower.
IWOV 8.93. wait to buy at 8.25.
NXG 1.31. nice setup but not moving.
NTMD crammer stock. thin volume.
CD 17.88 down .08. going down.
SIRI 7.40. wants to go to 8.10. howard stern play.
MGN 7.60 up .40.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

20051115 Me PM

ICOS 27.75 down 1.12 on average volume. watch for a short on friday or monday.
MNST 37.86 down .27 on slightly higher than average volume. may be basing for next up leg.
CPST crammer stock. put in short at 5.20.
SNDK 57 down 4.35 on nearly double average daily volume. get ready to short.
CPST run up from cramer. get ready to short if it goes over 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/051115/113208542423.html?.v=1
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/realmoneyradiowrap/10253041_2.html
Capstone Turbine (CPST:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take), a stock Cramer has been bullish on and recommended again Monday on his "Mad Money" TV show, is for real, said Cramer. However, Cramer wouldn't chase the stock with it up 32% Tuesday. He would wait for a pullback but believes the stock will go higher over the next month or two.

20051115 Tom PM

VLO down 2.25. 4% price spread today. ABC down.
OXY up .72. can also go lower.
XOM 56.42. wait for 51 to consider buy next spring or summer.
EP same as XOM. last week down with volume. [bear spread?]
most energies are in a topping procedure.
LSI maybe short here.
AAPL up .83. hanging at top on a down market day. not ready to short.
GS extended. not a good short because market not cleary headed down. options expiry week also brings volatility.
BRCM in good shape. will go with market.

ABX 25.27 down .39. in a downtrend. wait for a buy.
RDCM 2.75 down .12. buy near 2.28.
AOB 5.85 down .20 on double average daily volume. [will it continue down?]
NRMX 14.63 up .07. has been going up on lighter volume. nearly a short back to 6.99.
ELN 10.23 up .16. has had very high volume the past three days. try to buy at 8.88.
SIRI 7.17 up .19. can run for 8.10. when there is a close under a higher high with lighter volume, then sell it.
SNDK 57 down 4.35. will touchgap at 51.9 then close the gap at 44.

20051115 Tom PM

VLO down 2.25. 4% price spread today. ABC down.
OXY up .72. can also go lower.
XOM 56.42. wait for 51 to consider buy next spring or summer.
EP same as XOM. last week down with volume. [bear spread?]
most energies are in a topping procedure.
LSI maybe short here.
AAPL up .83. hanging at top on a down market day. not ready to short.
GS extended. not a good short because market not cleary headed down. options expiry week also brings volatility.
BRCM in good shape. will go with market.

ABX 25.27 down .39. in a downtrend. wait for a buy.
RDCM 2.75 down .12. buy near 2.28.
AOB 5.85 down .20 on double average daily volume. [will it continue down?]
NRMX 14.63 up .07. has been going up on lighter volume. nearly a short back to 6.99.
ELN 10.23 up .16. has had very high volume the past three days. try to buy at 8.88.
SIRI 7.17 up .19. can run for 8.10. when there is a close under a higher high with lighter volume, then sell it.
SNDK 57 down 4.35. will touchgap at 51.9 then close the gap at 44.

Monday, November 14, 2005

20051114 Tom PM

VLO up on lighter volume. can go higher.

20051114 Me AM

MNST may continue up. tighten trailing stop.
VLO gap up on open.
NFLX giving back a little of gains from last week.
metal stocks are continuing up.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

20051111 Me PM

Government and bond market were closed so volumes were lighter.
Miners looking good, up with volume: SWC PD MDG PAL.
TKLC down 1.4% on lighter volume. not following the market.
MNST up 5.2% on double average daily volume. intra-day two year high. what is short interest?
HDI up .15% on more than average daily volume. what is short interest?
NLY up 4.2% on more than double average daily volume. long term down trend that started in june. below all moving averages. near multi year low. 4.5% dividend. counter trend bounce to where?

Friday, November 11, 2005

20051111 Tom PM

GG looks better than NEM.
AEM broke out of trading range.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

20051110 Me AM

GM continues to sell off. multi year low.
metals were up yesterday and continue up this morning.
ASA nearing 52 week high. less than 100K average daily volume.
FRK down 5.5% yesterday on double average daily volume. possible short.
NLY down 1.1% yesterday. continuing in the down trend.
ICOS up 1.2% yesterday. nearly 52 week high. moving up.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

20051109 Tom PM

metals moved up.
GLG 21.52. moved higher than XAU move. the retracement was light. larger ABC up. action.

20051109 Me PM

NGAS down 11.5% on average daily volume. can go lower.
AOB up 8.1% on more than double average daily volume. 52 week high was 6.80. 2.1% of float is short. november 10 call has no bid. can go higher.
NVLS up 1.1% on lighter volume. filling the gap.
SAN 41.65 up .6%. range today was 1.75. average daily volume. 3.9% dividend.
TRE up 9.6%.

20051109 Tom AM

Weird Wally Wednesday is the Wednesday on the week before option expiration. It often is a volatile day.
MGN 6.70. in consolidation. buy at 6.07 going for 8.10.
BRKL too early to buy.
AOB up 5%. wants to go higher.
GOOG 384. short term, just finishing short term ABC down. today if runs to 388 on lighter volume then consider short. wants to go to 346.
EBAY hugging trend line to jump creek to 44.
SLAB 35. long term the area of 36 is a big creek. buy at 33.4.

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

20051108 Tom PM

housing sold off from TOL announcement of building slow down.
tomorrow is weird wally wednesday.

20051108 Tom AM

TOL lowers guidance. homebuilders down.
MDG not buy today. same for GFI. look at south africans.
ADM setting up for a buy.
EBAY 42.76. ABC up. wants to run over 44.
SEPR consolidation.
banks are strong.
SAN chile bank. 3.9% dividend. action.
ICOS running for highs.
SCUR 13.9 running for 15.
SFD 29.56. coming down to gap but may not reach the gap.

Monday, November 07, 2005

20051107 Tom AM

market wants to go higher.
retailers are strong.
VLO wait for 111 to short.
ZHNE 2.53. gapped up 5%. insider buying. can run to 2.81.

Thursday, November 03, 2005

20051103 Me PM

BOOM
BOT
EPEX
KGC down 4.4% on average daily volume. nice smooth trend down all day. would have been a smooth short.
LRCX
NGD up less than 1% on triple volume of 10,500 shares. very thin turn over.
SIGM up 4.4% on slightly higher than average daily volume.
TRE 52 week high then pull back to close down 2.8% (.08 cents) on triple average daily volume. 2.80 appears to be support shelf. this started trading in june.
WYNN

20051103 Tom AM

AL needs to consolidate to build more cause.
EGO action. needs a few more days.
RIG looking to test three black crows in october. then will go back down.
CNXT 2.28 up .12. can go up into the gap.
BZH giving up the high of today. going down. may soon be the time to short.
AAPL moved up into another area. fundamentally they are entertainment pushers.

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

20051102 Me PM

SAN 41 on almost double average daily volume. 4% dividend. bank. consider long.
HILL up 2.2%. consider long.
TKLC up 4.9%. recovering from the sell off several days ago. consider a short term buy.
SUNW down 3% on double average daily volume. earnings was yesterday.
SIGM 10.50. going up.

20051102 Tom PM

FDG dead cat bounce.
SGR up 4.3%. 52 week high.
PD up 3%. declared special $5 dividend.
AUY up 4.2%. 4.01 wants to run to 4.70. broke the down channel. tom owns.
LYO up 3.6%. 3.3% dividend. tomorrow is important as it goes after the down channel line. looks good.
NTAP has been strong.
VDSI 10.78 watch volume at 11.25 for test of 12.

TRE 2.89. jim sinclair's company. http://jsmineset.com. tom owns. can go to 3.70.
EMC down .4%, .06, on average volume on an up market day. consolidation.

20051102 Me

HL buy was definitely last two day.
NVLS trying to work back up into the gap.
DNDN continues to break down.
MTU japanese bank stock. consider buying.

20051102 Tom AM

gold and silver is up.
BAC banks are looking good. wait to buy banksk
transportation index broke out above highs.
AAPL 58.88. up 2%. finishing longer term ABC up.
KLAC trying to get back up inside range.
RDC up .45 with decent volume. driller dead cat bounce.
WMT climbing out of hole.
GSS 2.68. nice bottom.
ICOS upsike on volume will be tested.
NVAX 4.21 down .34. be careful.
MTU 91. this stock is done. setting up monster ABC down. going to 74.
NEM 43.30. back inside the trading range.
MOT going back to highs.
VLO wait for short.
BAC looks good.

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Scottrade Slow Again

Can't modify an order right now... This stock broker's web site usefulness is poor.

Detailed quotes also do not work.

20051101 Tom AM

gold and silver down.
FDG 33.44. 17.9% dividend. came down last week off highs with volume.
DELL 29.70 down 6.8%. monster volume.
NDAQ keeps marching up. no overhead supply.
ALGN 7.16. wants to test july low of 5.90s. needs more time to base out.
AGI similar pattern.
HL the buy was yesterday. it rejected price and got back inside range. needs to build a base. 2003 march low of 2.58 does not need to be tested.
RGLD wait for 20.95 to buy.
AAPL 52 week high today. will have the volume. not ready to short.
GLG down 1.6%. contract down $12 in two days and this is still at the highs. looks good.

Monday, October 31, 2005

20051031 Tom PM

GS not distribution, it is pushing the high with volume. pushing high with volume is accumulation and indicates more highs.
SCH closed over 52 week high, breaking out.
AMZN gapped down three days ago. up today. will take some time to consolidate to find direction.
HL two days down with big volume. rejected lower price today and closed up. was a nice buy today.
PXLW in a down trend. up 5.8% today. buying would be bottom fishing.
AUO up 6.4% today. coming off bottom.
NEM down 3.5% on 1/2 higher than average volume. the PDG takeover is bad for NEM.
NTO 2.52 down .02. consoliadation. need a sign of strength.

20051031 Tom AM

PDG up 20% on take over.
VLO wait to short.
BCON needs to establish a new base before going back up. everyone is underwater so every bounce those people will sell.
HL 52 week low. tom was stopped out friday. fundamentally tax audit in venezuela. back to 2000 there is nearly a buy.

Friday, October 28, 2005

Scottrade Web Site Unusably Slow

The Scottrade broker web site is painfully slow today. Tens of seconds to navigate pages. I pressed the "modify" link to modify an open order and waited 65 seconds to display the next page.

This is ridiculous. No other sites I access are having performance problems. I have tried two browsers (Internet Explorer and Mozilla).

I modified the open order and pressed "review order". It timed out after 3 1/2 minutes. Back to the change order screen and press "review order". It timed out 5 1/2 minutes later.

I clicked the contact us link and typed a message about slow performance. What was I thinking? I pressed "submit" and it timed out after 2 1/2 minutes.


There is a separate "tell us what you think" link. I clicked it and was send to zoomerang.com. That site was fast and let me provide feedback. Maybe Scottrade should outsource their trading site to Zoomerang!


Modify order, press "review order". Time out after four minutes.

Try again... Time out after eight minutes.

Logged in again and now the site is performing okay.

20051028 Me AM

TKLC earnings last night. profit down and guides lower. down 14% today.
HL continues down 4%.
DSCO giving up the high today.

20051028 Tom AM

PAAS consolidation. dangerous to short the metals.
BA there is a big seller. look to short at 66.2 after window dressing early next week.
SMH high volume down day. lacking price spread so maybe it can reverse.

Thursday, October 27, 2005

20051027 Me PM

market down big. relative strength up:
NFLX COGT DSCO

TKLC down 5.6% on double average volume. watch for close below 16 as it can go to 14.5 to fill the gap.

steels like AKS and RIO are getting hit hard.

20051027 Tom PM

markets off over 1%. waiting on possible indictments.
MSFT struggling off the bottom. numbers tonight.
KLAC numbers. after hours trading down $1. wants to go higher.
HL 3.35. down 7.7% on three times average volume. venezuela tax troubles.
XMSR 28.07. down 10% on six times average volume. going down to 10. if it breaks 26.16 then it can get down to 2.69. this looks like it is toast.
SIRI 5.86 down 7% on double volume.
fundamentally satellite radio is competing against the internet.
RIMM deat cat bounce.

20051027 Tom AM

market is waiting on indictments.
MNG caller says no volume when trying to go up. tom says this is positive because it is below the lows. buy is 6.55 right here.
CDE 600,000 volume 1/2 hour into the day is okay. these are below the lows so lighter volume here is okay.
HL down 14%.
federal reserve meeting next week.
GTRC big breakdown yesterday with ten times volume.
DRIV gapping down 28%.
S&P building ABC up.
FNM 47. do not short during window dressing because it has high institutional ownership. can counter trend bounce to 52. if it goes below 41 it can go a lot lower.
SGR wait to buy at 24.
MDG down on big volume yesterday. wait to buy at 18.
C 45.8. consolidation. can buy at lower end of consolidation.
banks are starting to look good.
BAC looks good to buy. can run up a couple points.
BVN down 10% so far today on heavy volume.
AKS so far down 5% today with average daily volume. longer term ABC up.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

20051026 Tom PM

dollar counter trend bounce.
real estate is done.
bonds are pulling back.
golds are pulling back with the broad market.
BWLD not really a short. will follow market.
COP wants to go to 57.22. most of the oil run is over.
tom is bullish on energies and bullish on golds.

VLO 100.94. not a trade here. intraday good short when it hit 105.
GME caller is short. it went down 5% and stopped at a shelf. if it opens above 33.90 then close the short and look for another short at 37.
CWPC close your long.
RIMM 58 up 1.6%. can get up to 67. longer term will get below 40.
TASR 6.5 down 6%. earning numbers. needs a lot of time to build cause because overhead supply is from december 2003.

20051026 Tom AM

ARRS opened at yesterday's close. now down 13%. earnings tonight. does someone already know about bad earnings? now 8.10. close below 8.15 and it goes to 6.5.
RGLD doing ok. this equity moves quickly. wants to go back to 30.
golds want to go higher.
market wants to go higher.
PFE dont buy. next floor is from 1995. setting up another ABC down.
AMZN down 12%. is filling the gap down to 37.74. needs a few months before buying.
PAL action here. 5.86 wants to run to 8.90.
window dressing starts tomorrow.
VLO dead cat bounce. can get to 108.
home builders still want to bounce.
durrell financial. mortgage broker. done.
BWLD not a short here. may get up to 34.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Scottrade limit order without bid

The Scottrade web site does not allow a limit order to be entered for options that dont have a bid or ask. Writing covered calls at .10 or so might be filled intra-day even though there is currently no bid, and that is why a limit order can be useful.
They told me to call my local branch to enter the order. Wonder what that commission will be?

20051025 Tom PM

markets down fractionally.
gold up 7.
dollar is toast.
bonds smoked.
TLT stay with the trend so dont buy.
EBAY down 3.5% on 2 times volume. speculating google will start auctions.
CTX earning numbers. 25% of new loans were interest only.
let home builders get higher before thinking about shorting.
bud:
EK nine year falling price channel.
OIH wait to short.
XAU gold wants to go higher.
BAC 4.7% dividend. like it. 42.50 is a good buy.
rising inflation hammers high interest stocks because the investor can go into treasuries with less risk.
energies want to bounce here. then short.
crude oil has topped out. natural gas has not topped out.

20051025 Basil

dollar is holding well.
silver is positive.

20051025 Tom AM

S&P yesterday had volume and price spread going up.
window dressing starts later this week.
need a few days of sideways market movement.
when CIA leak indictments come this week, if market still goes up then we have a good rally.

Monday, October 24, 2005

20051024 Tom PM

IWM 64.60 will be tough to take out 68 high. swing points going for 67.10.
SMH
tech is strong.
banks are perking up.
SOV buyout.
RKH bank holders.
RTH retail holders.
GES is moving.
LEN 57.79. up 4.2% on average volume. will get up to 62.30. let it run to take out highs with lighter volume then short.
oils look like they will have a nice bounce.
window dressing coming up.
PMU last trade at 1.10 ran it up.
ABLE up 13.4% on lighter volume. can get more of a pop. lose 1.04 per share. needs to base out for a couple years after the run it had. me: get ready to short.
occidental hair cut last week. can bounce to 76 or 78. may be three black crows candlestick.
APT 3.09. consolidating. trouble under 2.98.
T me: up 2.47% on slightly higher volume. stochastics turning up. above the moving averages. 5% dividend.
white light and cancer. atoms stop moving. specifically put energy into person so it will destroy the atoms by shaking them up to release the blackness. this works and can be done physically, mentally, and spiritually. a power all of this has. put your hands straight up, close your eyes, visualize top of head white light entering head sides of face shoulders arms legs toes. white light all around you now and put arms out and send it all. picture top of target's head accepting white light into top of their head and visualize pushing out the blackness. we are all one.
NFLX me: up 3.1% on slightly higher volume. back above 20 day moving average. watch the technicals.
dennisonmines

Friday, October 21, 2005

20051021 Tom PM

SGR had numbers up 16%. too late to buy more.
WB getting ready to break topside. buy at 47.61. 4% dividend.

mike from london:
GLD ready to go up.

GG so-so.
golds yesterday maybe was the low. today gold held and closed up.
CDE came down to breakout point. hasnt turned up yet. consolidation. not ready to buy yet.
HL same as CDE.
BOT up 23%. new issue this week.

20051021 Tom AM, White Lightning

KLAC tom is doing white lightning.
YHOO tom is doing white lightning.
option expiry today. these white lightnings opened up with volume. came down with lighter volume. tom is gunning for them to get back to those highs of the open and it may take two pushes to get there. 1PM EST market will get dull and any premium will move out of the options so be careful later in the day.
BCSI up on very light volume.
Bud:
INTC is now retesting the april lows.

[seems there should be very little premium in the options in the morning (when going long) because it will leak out during the day.
maybe selling the slightly in-the-money calls that have too much premium in the morning would allow capturing of the premium that leaks out during the day. then buy them back before the close. this would mean the other side of the calendar spread would need to be set up earlier and probably for a much longer time frame so that one day would cause little leakage.
look at yahoo today and going long 37.5 out of the money would cost .05. bid 0 ask .05 all day. then sell the 35 (.65 to .35 range for day). now bid .40 ask .45. selling for .65 and buying back at .40 = .25 minus .05 from the long side = .20. .20 * 100 * 20 = $400]