Wednesday, November 19, 2008

20081119 PM, DOW Close Below 8000

DOW 7,997.28 -427.47 (-5.07%)
NASDAQ 1,386.42 -96.85 (-6.53%)
S&P 500 806.58 -52.54 (-6.12%). Near 2002 low.

DOW closed below 8000. Relentless selling with some big price drops, though volume is not extreme. A day last week it looked like we could have a move up into options expiration this week, and this has not happened. More selling with a lack of buyers to support price.

Consumer price index fell a record 1% last month, in large part due to oil prices falling. Excluding food and energy the index fell .1% - first decline since 1982. This signals more Fed rate cuts, mimicking the Japanese' futile attempt to stimulate twenty years ago and their nearly zero interest rate.

Financials are in terrible shape and had volume moving down today. Yesterday Treasury Secretary Paulson said he had used some bailout funds to stabilize financials. Really?
BAC 13.06 -2.13 (14.02%).
C 6.40 -1.96 (23.44%)
MFC 16.55 -1.64 (9.02%).
52 week low. Covered short too early several days ago because it was just "hanging around".

ISIL 8.84 -.91.
Scalp short intraday.

EEV 111.23 +15.29 (15.94%).
Staying short and looking to sell around 191. Will watch how it does in 190s to 207.10 52 week high.

SBUX 7.97 -0.41.
52 week low. No real obvious support level to stop the downtrend from 40. Nearly ten years of buyers are underwater.

AA 8.16 -1.32 (13.92%).
Nearly twenty years of buyers are underwater.

SHY 84.61 +0.12. iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury Bond.
52 week high. If you must buy a stock, this short-term bond is somewhat safe until/if the dollar breaks down dramatically. Stay away from buying long-term bonds.

CNSL 9.81 Down 1.13 (10.33%).
Last month there was a tick down to 8.25. If there were real trades there, then it looks like it will retest that price.

MCHP 17.51 -1.53 (8.04%).
52 week low. (Relatively safe) short opportunity to 15, then watch if it can break lower.

GOOG 280.18 -17.24 (5.80%).
52 week low. Every buyer since 2005 is underwater. When this does bounce, it may be vicious.

SRS 225.55 +48.72 (27.55%).
All time high with average volume. Am holding on to this wild ride. Vicious retracements.

SWN 30.38 -2.07 (6.38%).
Can easily retest October low around 20. When energy bounces, this can go to 40 and more.

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