20110222 PM, Commercial Signal Failure

Dow 12,212.79 -178.46
Nasdaq 2,756.42 -77.53
SP500 1,315.44 -27.57
10-YrBond 3.46% -0.13

Stock indices opened lower, tried to rebound, then sold off the remainder of the day. For bulls, a few days of pullback will be healthy.

Over the long weekend, precious metals were higher. Today precious metals gave back much of the gain from over the long weekend. Over-leveraged silver longs were likely stopped out today. If you just look at closing prices Friday vs. Tuesday, it was not a big loss. Monday vs. Tuesday was a huge loss ... $2 silver sell-off. Expect the remaining three trading days of this week to be volatile, with the close this Friday being above $34 ... moving into the price from yesterday (Monday, when most USA markets were closed). A Friday close below $33 will put silver into a multi-month consolidation.

Copper was slightly lower.

Grains and cotton were limit down. West Texas oil was over 9% higher, catching up to the Brent price. $4/gallon at the pump in the USA is likely within six months.

GLD 136.29 +0.88
SLV 32.26 +0.47
PTM 21.47 -0.24

XLE 76.27 -0.75
XLF 16.65 -0.53
VXX 32.55 +3.52 (12.13%)

JJC 57.43 -2.13 (3.58%). iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN.

Dan Norcini explained a Commercial Signal Failure and answered follow-up questions.

VIXY 70.80 +7.86 (12.49%). ProShares Trust VIX Short-Term.
VIXM 70.39 +3.94 (5.93%). ProShares Trust VIX Mid-Term.

ANO 1.29 -0.14 (9.79%)
MDW 1.33 -0.22 (14.19%)