The two year treasury yield closed higher than the ten year treasury yield. To my knowledge, this is the only (somewhat) reliable forward-looking recession indicator.
Watch for noise in the press about how it is different this time, and get ready for trouble in the form of: credit card interest rates moving up (the short term rate) causing a consumer spending slow down, car financing rates going up causing more consumer spending slow down, business slowdown from less consumer spending, increasing mortgage defaults that push the housing bubble over the edge in a few markets, less demand for dollars, and quick moves in the metals.
Adjustable mortgages will adjust higher next week. Those with adjustable mortgages will be using more of their pay check to service their loan.
The consumer debt payment squeeze is happening. This will take a year to slosh around - it is not a short term event.
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