20101115 1255

DJIA 11,269.13 +76.55
NASDAQ 2,528.03 +9.82
SP500 1,206.05 +6.84

Dollar higher. Metals higher.

UUP 22.70 +0.09. Sold at 22.73 for .48 per share gain. Taking this small profit to free up cash. Still own similar position in EUO.

EUO 19.72 +0.23. ProShares UltraShort Euro.

20101112 Weekend

Dow 11,192.58 -90.52
Nasdaq 2,518.21 -37.31
SP500 1,199.21 -14.33. Consider shorting if it bounces to 1214.

China sold off 5%. Europe sold off then recovered.
Dollar down a little. Building cause for 80 then 83.
Metals and other commodities down big with corn/rice/bean limit down. Risk trades were taken off. Precious metal bulls will want prices to go down with lighter volume.
Oil was down.

EU urges Ireland to accept a bailout. Instead of pushing the debt bubble further, Ireland could allow their failing banks to fail and be restructured. Allowing the banks to fail would create short term turmoil that would quickly resolve into a fresh start for Ireland. Ireland's debt is a bigger problem, as few would advocate a country default on it's debt.

GM is expected to IPO on Thursday. Participating banks have a big incentive to push this out at a good price. The banks will try to keep indices levitating until then. Four trading days to keep the markets pumped up so the banker's bonus checks will roll.

GLD 133.69 -3.97
SLV 25.52 -1.59 (5.87%). This retracement into 25s, if it builds cause here, will build a base for further gains.
PTM 20.58 -0.13

XLE 62.94 -0.94
XLF 14.94 -0.25

VXX 47.60 +2.17 (4.78%)

BA 63.09 -2.28 (3.49%). Huge downside volume. 52 week range 49.72 - 76.00.
MELA 5.60 -0.34 (5.72%). MELA Sciences, Inc. The shorts have pressed their trade. Now they await a regulatory ruling due this week. 52 week range 5.23 - 12.24.


Municipal bonds are faltering. With tax revenue problems and difficulty making substantial budget cuts, municipal bonds are a losing proposition.

MUB 102.90 +0.32. iShares S&P National AMT-Free Muni Bd.

PCK 8.65 -0.14. PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund II.

Printing money is the last refuge of failed economic empires and banana republics:

20101111 PM

Dow 11,283.10 -73.94
Nasdaq 2,555.52 -23.26
SP500 1,213.54 -5.17
30-yrBond 0.39% -3.85

Dollar higher. Watch how dollar tests 78. After 78, it may go on to 80. Euro will do the opposite.
Troubles with Irish banks and their debt.
Big name earnings misses - Cisco and Disney.

GLD 137.66 +0.42
SLV 27.11 +0.39
PTM 20.71 +0.08

XLE 63.88 +0.70
XLF 15.19 -0.15

VXX 45.43 +0.83

CSCO 20.52 -3.97 (16.21%). Open 20.50. Previous close 24.49. A stop loss would not have protected profits in a long position. Earnings news of lower sales.
DIS 35.93 -1.06 (2.87%)
DRYS 5.63 +0.49 (9.43%)
LVLT 1.12 +0.09 (8.74%)
MVG 9.96 +0.11. Buy retracement around 8.40.
SLW 35.39 +0.61
UUP 22.64 +0.16. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish. Going for 24.

20101109 PM, COMEX Raises Margin

Dow 11,346.75 -60.09
Nasdaq 2,562.98 -17.07
SP500 1,213.40 -9.85
30-yrBond 4.25% +0.11

Indices were higher in the morning then sold off. Dollar higher.

With volume in the metals, this could be the time when dip buyers don't step in. A pullback and consolidation would be useful for higher prices. Metal pullback blamed on COMEX raising margins:

Silver fell from the highest price in 30 years after CME Group Inc.’s Comex unit raised margin requirements. Gold dropped from a record.
The minimum amount of cash traders must deposit when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $6,500 per contract from $5,000 for exchange members...

Silver shorts have a small window to cover. After margins encourage speculative long liquidation, look to reload speculative silver longs.

Interesting comment from James Rickards:

Most markets consist of two parties, the buyer and the seller. But in futures markets there's a third party in every trade which is the exchange and more specifically the rule making bodies and margin setting panels on each exchange. They act not in the best interests of buyers or sellers but in the best interests of the exchange itself and its statutory duty to maintain orderly markets.

GLD 135.59 -2.19 (1.59%). Set another all-time high, then sold off on big volume.
SLV 26.18 -0.97 (3.57%). Set another 30-year high, then sold off on massive volume.
PTM 20.75 -0.20

XLE 62.38 -0.12
XLF 15.17 -0.29

NG 14.27 -0.33 (2.26%). Made another 52 week high then sold off with huge volume.

LVLT 1.05 +0.17 (18.64%). Possible agreement to provide content delivery for Netflix.

20101108 PM

Dow 11,406.84 -37.24
Nasdaq 2,580.05 +1.07
SP500 1,223.25 -2.60
10-YrBond 2.5630% +0.0270

Dollar higher and metals higher.

GLD 137.78 +1.40
SLV 27.15 +0.95
PTM 20.95 +0.01

XLE 62.50 +0.19
XLF 15.46 -0.12

VXX 11.29 +0.15

A few miners with big percentage gains:
ANO 1.45 +0.09 (6.62%)
EXK 6.41 +0.54 (9.20%)
NGD 8.80 +0.57 (6.93%)
MDW 0.6490 +0.0390 (6.39%)
SDRG 0.22 +0.02 (10.00%)

20101105 Weekend

Dow 11,444.08 +9.24
Nasdaq 2,578.98 +1.64
SP500 1,225.85 +4.79
30-yrBond 0.3916% -3.6524

Dollar was higher and metals were higher. At lunch time, dollar took another step higher which pushed metals and indices toward unchanged.

This week the Federal Reserve met expectations and will embark on a further $900 billion of money printing. With the rush higher in stock indices, next week (around Wednesday), look for stock indices to pull back.

GLD 136.38 +0.35. Another all time high.
SLV 26.20 +0.57. Another 30 year high.
PTM 20.94 -0.16

XLE 62.31 +0.31
XLF 15.58 +0.35

VXX 11.14 -0.12

EXK 5.87 +0.62 (11.81%)

20101104 PM

Dow 11,434.84 +219.71
Nasdaq 2,577.34 +37.07
SP500 1,221.06 +23.10

Indices opened with a gap higher and held the gains. Dollar opened lower and made a feeble recovery attempt. The inflation and risk trade is on.

GLD 136.03 +4.46 (3.39%)
SLV 25.63 +1.38 (5.70%). Huge day in silver. Expect a further pop on short covering.
PTM 21.10 +0.94 (4.66%)

XLE 62.00 +1.91 (3.18%)
XLF 15.23 +0.49 (3.33%)

VXX 11.26 -0.81 (6.71%). Another big down day.

EVOGF 0.88 -0.01. Relative weakness when other miners were up (some up big).