20101124 PM

Dow 11,187.28 +150.91
Nasdaq 2,543.12 +48.17
SP500 1,198.35 +17.62
10-YrBond 2.9140%

GLD 134.18 -0.23
SLV 26.94 +0.08
PTM 19.59 -0.01

XLE 63.27 +1.12
XLF 14.63 +0.22

VXX 43.16 -1.71

STV 9.00 +1.29 (16.73%). China Digital Tv Holding Co Ltd. Ramp higher to close at day high.

20101123 PM

Dow 11,036.37 +142.21
Nasdaq 2,494.95 +37.07
SP500 1,180.73 +17.11
10-YrBond 0.2574% +2.5556

After initial gap down for the indices, it was a quite day.
Dollar nearly $1 higher.

GLD 134.41 +0.93
SLV 26.86 -0.31
PTM 19.60 -0.16

XLE 62.15 -1.24
XLF 14.41 -0.23

VXX 44.87 +1.95

AGQ 128.06 -3.26. Added a little to this long position at 126.40. Day range 125.53 - 130.75. Opened with gap down which put in low price of day.

MDW 0.7070 +0.0770 (12.22%). Ramped high in last 1/2 hour. 52 week range 0.38 - 1.04.

ARG 62.00 -3.90 (5.92%). Airgas Inc. Took back six months of rising price.
EUO 20.39 +0.73 (3.71%). Gap up, meandered higher, closed near day high.

20101123 1456

DJIA 11,022.82 -155.76
NASDAQ 2,492.69 -39.33
SP500 1,180.37 -17.47

Waiting for afternoon buying ramp in the indices. Silver gapped lower and has been recovering.

SLV 26.91 -0.26
AGQ 128.51 -2.81. Added a small position to existing long this morning at 126.40. So far, day range 125.53 - 130.75.

20101122 PM

Dow 11,178.58 -24.97
Nasdaq 2,532.02 +13.90
SP500 1,197.84 -1.89
10-YrBond 0.2574% -2.6176

Ireland saddled taxpayers with a bank bailout by applying for loans.

GLD 133.48 +1.28
SLV 27.17 +0.43
PTM 19.76 +0.01

XLE 63.39 -0.20
XLF 14.64 -0.21

VXX 42.92 -1.53

AGQ 131.32 +4.32. Started 1/2 long position today. Looking to sell a retest of the recent high in the 140s.

ANO 1.25 +0.12 (10.62%)
GS 161.05 -5.62 (3.37%). Some financials weak due to insider trading probe.
UNG 6.08 +0.15. Some buying interest here.

20101122 1258

DJIA 11,075.91 -127.64
NASDAQ 2,505.13 -12.99
SP500 1,187.10 -12.63

ZSL 129.52 +2.52. Started 1/2 long silver position at 129.9. May add to the long later today, depending on if/how weakness appears.

ANO 1.2401 +0.1101 (9.74%)

20101119 Weekend

Dow 11,203.55 +22.32
Nasdaq 2,518.12 +3.72
SP500 1,199.73 +3.04
30-yrBond 4.25% -0.03

GLD 132.20 +0.11
SLV 26.74 +0.39. Nice recovery from the lower prices on Tuesday and Wednesday. 52 week range 14.37 - 28.72. From morning intraday low, silver ramped nearly a dollar to close near the high. Metals dip buyers snatch up any morning bargains.
PTM 19.75 -0.08

XLE 63.59 +0.53
XLF 14.85 -0.01

VXX 44.45 -0.88

MELA 4.98 +2.45 (96.94%)
VLCCF 23.09 +0.41. Knightsbridge Tankers Limited. 8.80% dividend.

20101117 PM, UNG

Dow 11,007.88 -15.62
Nasdaq 2,476.01 +6.17
SP500 1,178.59 +0.25

GM will IPO on Thursday. Somehow throughtout the GM bankruptcy they were able to not discharge thier retiree benefits onto the PBGC, which typically would take over pensions after a bankruptcy. The retiree benefits were part of the cause of the bankruptcy, so GM hasn't corrected some fundamental problems.
In the indices, look for a pop on the GM offereing, then look for the stock indices to resume selling off into the weekend.

Oil at 80.49 has been down 10% in a few days.
Gold down 100 in a few days. Can retrace 30% from the recent highs.

GLD 130.38 -0.59
SLV 25.00 +0.07
PTM 19.31 -0.09

XLE 61.70 +0.25
XLF 14.66 -0.10

VXX 48.08 -1.26

LDSH 45.42 +16.09 (54.86%). Ladish Co. has agreed to be purchased by its largest raw materials supplier as it prepares for an anticipated uptick in the markets it serves. ... Vroman says the acquisition will open up new markets for Ladish that were “previously a stretch” for Cudahy-based Ladish, a forger of parts for the aerospace and industrial markets.
Allegheny Technologies Inc. of Pittsburgh has reached an agreement to purchase Ladish in a $778 million deal, or $48 per outstanding common share of Ladish stock.
ATI 48.41 -1.53. Allegheny Technologies Inc.

Municipal bond funds. Get ready to short the retracements:
NPX 12.49 +0.21. Nuveen Insured Premium Income Municipal Fund 2.
PML 10.65 +0.24. PIMCO Municipal Income Fund II.

NTAP 49.25 -3.44 (6.53%). Low earnings numbers.
RVREF 0.79 +0.05 (7.05%). RIVERSTONE RESOURCES.
UNG 5.73 +0.22 (3.99%). United States Natural Gas. Consider a buy at 5.5 for retest of recent 6 and maybe a longer term hold.

Money continues to move out of the high-fliers.
CARV 2.47 -0.36 (12.72%). Carver Bancorp Inc.
DQ 11.19 -2.20 (16.43%). Daqo New Energy Corp.
FSLR 122.83 -7.86 (6.01%). First Solar Inc.
IIIIU 3.85 -1.34 (25.82%). Information Services Group Inc.
NPD 3.96 -0.84 (17.50%). China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd.
RINO 6.07 -1.08 (15.10%). RINO International Corp.

20101116 PM

Dow 11,023.50 -178.47
Nasdaq 2,469.84 -43.98
SP500 1,178.34 -19.41
30-yrBond 4.2570% -0.1160

Yesterday, Monday November 15, the dollar closed above three recent peaks. Ireland, Portugal, and Greece continue to have immediate debt problems and Austria announced it may not fund Greece's debt.
With the dollar higher, the metals have correspondingly moved lower.

GLD 130.97 -1.45
SLV 24.93 +0.00
PTM 19.40 -0.61
XLE 61.45 -1.17
XLF 14.76 -0.25
VXX 49.34 +2.10 (4.45%)

REMX 19.43 -0.95 (4.67%). Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF.

A few days have passed since the Federal Reserve announced an additional $900 billion of quantitative easing. Let's review some well-placed propaganda.

In the October 18 issue of Barron's, Vincent Reinhart was interviewed by Jonathan R. Laing The Case for Quantitative Easing.

Some article highlights:

The interviewer asked "What about the Japanese attempt early in the decade?"
Reinhart answered "The problem with the Japanese is they went about easing in a half-hearted way."

The real problem was Japan had blown a massive credit bubble in the real estate market and was unwilling to allow bank failures to work out the bad debt. Therefore, the debt still exists and the Japanese economy continues to struggle under the debt burden. More easing would not have cleared the bad debt, just like more easing in the USA will not clear the bad debt.
The system of ever-increasing credit finally failed. Until the debts are discharged, no amount of fiddling will fix a fail system.

Reinhart said "When the Fed announces more quantitative easing, we might not see that much of a reaction in security prices."
It took a few days until debt blew out causing higher interest rates. Since November 8, the yield on the 30 year treasury has gone from 4.10 to 4.35. Interest rates are rising, the opposite of what Bernanke claimed would happen. Bond holders are going to continue to dump their holdings by selling into the Fed's bid.

Reinhart said "When the Fed purchases Treasuries, that also puts downward pressure on the exchange value of the dollar, and upward pressure on commodity prices."
The interviewer asked "Is that a good thing or bad thing?"
Reinhart said "It depends on your outlook."

For the average American, higher gasoline prices and higher food prices are not good.

Reinhart said "Hyperinflation occurs when central banks lose their discipline and monetary policy gets into the hands of the politicians."
The Fed didn't need any help from politicians to destroy the value of the dollar. Since it's creation in 1913, the Fed has devalued the dollar by 97%.

Reinhart said "Should one sit on one's hands instead, and not use all the tools at our disposal?"
The Fed is the number two holder of USA debt, behind the Chinese, and will soon be the number one holder of USA debt. The USA has a budget deficit problem with high unemployment and a collapsing real estate debt bubble. The Fed is trapped with no effective tools. Fed monetization of the debt is a tortured way of having the Treasury directly print money. At this point, the Fed is useless.

The simple market solution is to allow competing currencies. Other changes would be useful, such as reducing the insurance limits in bank accounts protected by the FDIC.

20101115 1255

DJIA 11,269.13 +76.55
NASDAQ 2,528.03 +9.82
SP500 1,206.05 +6.84

Dollar higher. Metals higher.

UUP 22.70 +0.09. Sold at 22.73 for .48 per share gain. Taking this small profit to free up cash. Still own similar position in EUO.

EUO 19.72 +0.23. ProShares UltraShort Euro.

20101112 Weekend

Dow 11,192.58 -90.52
Nasdaq 2,518.21 -37.31
SP500 1,199.21 -14.33. Consider shorting if it bounces to 1214.

China sold off 5%. Europe sold off then recovered.
Dollar down a little. Building cause for 80 then 83.
Metals and other commodities down big with corn/rice/bean limit down. Risk trades were taken off. Precious metal bulls will want prices to go down with lighter volume.
Oil was down.

EU urges Ireland to accept a bailout. Instead of pushing the debt bubble further, Ireland could allow their failing banks to fail and be restructured. Allowing the banks to fail would create short term turmoil that would quickly resolve into a fresh start for Ireland. Ireland's debt is a bigger problem, as few would advocate a country default on it's debt.

GM is expected to IPO on Thursday. Participating banks have a big incentive to push this out at a good price. The banks will try to keep indices levitating until then. Four trading days to keep the markets pumped up so the banker's bonus checks will roll.

GLD 133.69 -3.97
SLV 25.52 -1.59 (5.87%). This retracement into 25s, if it builds cause here, will build a base for further gains.
PTM 20.58 -0.13

XLE 62.94 -0.94
XLF 14.94 -0.25

VXX 47.60 +2.17 (4.78%)

BA 63.09 -2.28 (3.49%). Huge downside volume. 52 week range 49.72 - 76.00.
MELA 5.60 -0.34 (5.72%). MELA Sciences, Inc. The shorts have pressed their trade. Now they await a regulatory ruling due this week. 52 week range 5.23 - 12.24.


Municipal bonds are faltering. With tax revenue problems and difficulty making substantial budget cuts, municipal bonds are a losing proposition.

MUB 102.90 +0.32. iShares S&P National AMT-Free Muni Bd.

PCK 8.65 -0.14. PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund II.

Printing money is the last refuge of failed economic empires and banana republics:

20101111 PM

Dow 11,283.10 -73.94
Nasdaq 2,555.52 -23.26
SP500 1,213.54 -5.17
30-yrBond 0.39% -3.85

Dollar higher. Watch how dollar tests 78. After 78, it may go on to 80. Euro will do the opposite.
Troubles with Irish banks and their debt.
Big name earnings misses - Cisco and Disney.

GLD 137.66 +0.42
SLV 27.11 +0.39
PTM 20.71 +0.08

XLE 63.88 +0.70
XLF 15.19 -0.15

VXX 45.43 +0.83

CSCO 20.52 -3.97 (16.21%). Open 20.50. Previous close 24.49. A stop loss would not have protected profits in a long position. Earnings news of lower sales.
DIS 35.93 -1.06 (2.87%)
DRYS 5.63 +0.49 (9.43%)
LVLT 1.12 +0.09 (8.74%)
MVG 9.96 +0.11. Buy retracement around 8.40.
SLW 35.39 +0.61
UUP 22.64 +0.16. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish. Going for 24.

20101109 PM, COMEX Raises Margin

Dow 11,346.75 -60.09
Nasdaq 2,562.98 -17.07
SP500 1,213.40 -9.85
30-yrBond 4.25% +0.11

Indices were higher in the morning then sold off. Dollar higher.

With volume in the metals, this could be the time when dip buyers don't step in. A pullback and consolidation would be useful for higher prices. Metal pullback blamed on COMEX raising margins:

Silver fell from the highest price in 30 years after CME Group Inc.’s Comex unit raised margin requirements. Gold dropped from a record.
The minimum amount of cash traders must deposit when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures will rise to $6,500 per contract from $5,000 for exchange members...

Silver shorts have a small window to cover. After margins encourage speculative long liquidation, look to reload speculative silver longs.

Interesting comment from James Rickards:

Most markets consist of two parties, the buyer and the seller. But in futures markets there's a third party in every trade which is the exchange and more specifically the rule making bodies and margin setting panels on each exchange. They act not in the best interests of buyers or sellers but in the best interests of the exchange itself and its statutory duty to maintain orderly markets.

GLD 135.59 -2.19 (1.59%). Set another all-time high, then sold off on big volume.
SLV 26.18 -0.97 (3.57%). Set another 30-year high, then sold off on massive volume.
PTM 20.75 -0.20

XLE 62.38 -0.12
XLF 15.17 -0.29

NG 14.27 -0.33 (2.26%). Made another 52 week high then sold off with huge volume.

LVLT 1.05 +0.17 (18.64%). Possible agreement to provide content delivery for Netflix.

20101108 PM

Dow 11,406.84 -37.24
Nasdaq 2,580.05 +1.07
SP500 1,223.25 -2.60
10-YrBond 2.5630% +0.0270

Dollar higher and metals higher.

GLD 137.78 +1.40
SLV 27.15 +0.95
PTM 20.95 +0.01

XLE 62.50 +0.19
XLF 15.46 -0.12

VXX 11.29 +0.15

A few miners with big percentage gains:
ANO 1.45 +0.09 (6.62%)
EXK 6.41 +0.54 (9.20%)
NGD 8.80 +0.57 (6.93%)
MDW 0.6490 +0.0390 (6.39%)
SDRG 0.22 +0.02 (10.00%)

20101105 Weekend

Dow 11,444.08 +9.24
Nasdaq 2,578.98 +1.64
SP500 1,225.85 +4.79
30-yrBond 0.3916% -3.6524

Dollar was higher and metals were higher. At lunch time, dollar took another step higher which pushed metals and indices toward unchanged.

This week the Federal Reserve met expectations and will embark on a further $900 billion of money printing. With the rush higher in stock indices, next week (around Wednesday), look for stock indices to pull back.

GLD 136.38 +0.35. Another all time high.
SLV 26.20 +0.57. Another 30 year high.
PTM 20.94 -0.16

XLE 62.31 +0.31
XLF 15.58 +0.35

VXX 11.14 -0.12

EXK 5.87 +0.62 (11.81%)

20101104 PM

Dow 11,434.84 +219.71
Nasdaq 2,577.34 +37.07
SP500 1,221.06 +23.10

Indices opened with a gap higher and held the gains. Dollar opened lower and made a feeble recovery attempt. The inflation and risk trade is on.

GLD 136.03 +4.46 (3.39%)
SLV 25.63 +1.38 (5.70%). Huge day in silver. Expect a further pop on short covering.
PTM 21.10 +0.94 (4.66%)

XLE 62.00 +1.91 (3.18%)
XLF 15.23 +0.49 (3.33%)

VXX 11.26 -0.81 (6.71%). Another big down day.

EVOGF 0.88 -0.01. Relative weakness when other miners were up (some up big).